Medford’s population has grown steadily, with an average annual growth rate of 3.6 percent between 1990 and 2000, and 1.7 percent annually between 2000 and 2010. The current city population (2010), according to the United States Census Bureau is 74,907. Population in the Medford Rural Fire Protection District No. 2 is estimated to be 11,326 for a total resident population of 86,233. It is estimated that employment brings an additional 11,6323 people into the city, raising the MFR’s daytime service population to approximately 97,865.
A population forecast for the City of Medford was published in City of Medford Comprehensive Plan; Housing Element adopted December 2, 2010. Population growth for the Medford area is forecast to average 2.7% per year between 2010 and 2029. The 2029 City of Medford population is expected to reach 115,869 by 2029. Specific population growth information for MRFPD No. 2 is not available but should grow at a much more modest pace. The chart below illustrates projected population growth includes both the city’s population forecast and an estimate of 0.5 percent population growth for Medford Rural Fire Protection District No. 2.
Figure 30 Current and Projected Population
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Current and Forecasted Population
City of Medford MFPD No.2 Total
Community growth is expected to be very modest until the recovery of the local and national economy and will primarily occur around the city’s eastern perimeter. Some in-fill development and redevelopment is expected in the city’s interior. The city Planning Department estimates there is approximately 200 acres available for more intense redevelopment. Growth within MRFPD No. 2 is constrained by state and local land use regulations.
It is useful to assess the distribution of the population within the region, since there is a direct correlation between population density and service demand. The following map displays the population density of the City of Medford, based on Census 2010 data, the most current information available.
One of the factors that can influence emergency service demand, particularly emergency medical services, is the population’s age. The following chart examines the City of Medford’s population segmented by age groups.
Figure 32: Estimated Population by Age
Age Group Population
Under 5 5,393 5 - 17 12,690 18 - 19 1,849 20 - 24 4,943 25 - 34 10,077 35 - 49 13,887 50 - 64 13,959 65 & over 12,109 TOTAL 74,907
Source: United States Census Bureau
Based on the preceding figure, 16.2 percent of the population is 65 years of age or older and 7.2 percent of the population is under five years of age. This places a total of 23 percent of the area’s population within the age groups that are at highest risk in residential fire incidents and account for some of the highest use of emergency medical services. Senior citizens can have difficulty escaping from fire due to physical limitations. Seniors also tend to use emergency medical services more frequently than younger persons. As the population ages, this will create an increase in service demand for emergency medical services.
The very young also represent a vulnerable population, both in regard to their ability to escape a structure fire as well as their susceptibility to serious medical ailments such as asthma, traumatic events, choking, or vehicular accidents.
Determining where the higher amounts of these target risk populations tend to live within the region can help in the deployment of apparatus, especially rescue units. The following map is based on 2010 Census data.
Figure 33: Pediatric Population Density
The highest concentrations of pediatric populations reside primarily the city’s western and central areas.
The impact of the elderly population on emergency medical services has been extensively studied. The high utilization rate of emergency departments and the associated need for ambulance transportation by the elderly is in part due to challenges in the access to primary care physicians by the elderly at home and in nursing homes. The elderly can account for approximately one-third of emergency ambulance use and two-thirds of non-urgent ambulance use.
The “Baby-Boom” generation includes those individuals born between 1946 and 1964. In 2009, the oldest member was 62 years of age and the youngest was 46 years of age. This is the largest segment of the population in the United States. The growth of the elderly population (65 years and older) is expected to increase dramatically over the next 30 years across the country. As this cohort ages, the demand on emergency medical services is expected to increase.
The following map illustrates the density of the elderly population by geographic area. This map is also based on 2010 Census data.
Figure 34: Senior Population Density
Future Geographic Growth Potential
Annexation of unincorporated territory into the city limits occurs on occasion, usually when a property owner wishes to develop their land in a manner that requires urban services.
The City of Medford Comprehensive Plan (MCP) was first adopted in 1975. Objectives of the MCP are to promote a desirable balance and location of land uses in the Medford community, and relate these uses to the location of public facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, the MCP identifies the geographical limits of future urban development within which basic urban services can be most efficiently and economically provided. The Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) is the outer limit of land that is designated to eventually be annexed into the city.
While some of the area inside the UGB is presently suburban, with varying densities and some rural in nature, the city has determined that it is prudent to assume this area will ultimately become part of the city, developed to urban densities and be a Medford Fire-Rescue service responsibility.
There is also land designated as “urban reserves”. This is land that, while not officially intended for inclusion within the city limits, is expected to be considered for annexation over a fifty year time frame.
It is important to consider future boundary growth during fire station location decisions. Fire stations are significant investments. They should be placed considering future boundaries as well as current needs.
Figure 35 Urban Growth and Urban Reserve Areas