Benjamin a Adorno: París, 9 de Diciembre de 1938

C3.1 Introduction

“Warming up the Region” was undertaken in 2002 as part of a series of sub-UK scoping studies completed with the support of the UK Climate Impacts Programme. The study was commissioned by Business in the Community on behalf of a consortium of organisations and funded by the Environment Agency, Yorkshire Forward, the Yorkshire and Humber Assembly and Government Office for Yorkshire and Humber. WS Atkins, Stockholm Environment Institute and the Met Office were appointed to undertake the study. The overall aim of the scoping study was to assess the potential impacts of climate change of the region.

C3.2 The Coastal Zone

C3.2.1 Impacts

The coastal area is likely to be at increased flood risks in the future without further

investment in defences or retreat from the coast. Flood gates designed to protect Hull from flooding will require modifications to either their operational rules or design to provide protection over the next 50 years.

Extreme sea levels along the Yorkshire and Lincolnshire coast and within the Humber Estuary are expected to at least double in frequency over the next 50 years and may even increase up to seventeen fold over 80 years.

Rising sea levels have many other impacts on the coastal environment and on river water quality, for example:

• changing sea temperatures that will affect the type and quantity of fish stocks;

• a possible increase in the likelihood of algal growth in coastal waters; and

• more difficult maritime conditions affecting shipping.

C3.2.2 Opportunities

There are potential “wins” for the coastal zone, such as the development of new forms of tourism and recreation to take advantage of warmer climatic conditions. The main business opportunities relate to increasing the tourism potential of the coastal areas.

C3.2.3 Conclusions

The main impacts of climate change will be:

• Sea level rise at average rates of up to 9 mm per year;

• Increased risks of tidal flooding;

• Increased flood risks will affect many coastal industries;

• Increase coastal erosion and land sliding;

• Increase rates of coastal squeeze of important intertidal habitats; and

• Potential benefits of increased temperatures on the tourist industry that may help

towards the regeneration of the coastal zone.

C3.3 Drainage, rivers and floodplains

C3.3.1 Impacts

The main impact of climate change is likely to be increased flood risks in terms of flood magnitude and (peak levels and volumes) and the frequency of flooding in winter months.

Maintaining defences

New and improved flood defence schemes will be required in some areas, while in those areas where reducing the risk of flooding through defences is not viable (economically or otherwise) it will be necessary to improve flood warning schemes and emergency response.

Urban drainage problems

Increased intensity of rainfall will lead to more urban flooding problems. This has

implications for drainage in urban areas, where stormwater systems may require upgrading. Modern urban drainage systems are designed to store excess storm water in tanks, tunnels and ponds to ensure that large pulses of urban runoff are released at a controlled rate. Changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall events will mean that these in-built safety mechanisms will be used more often and become less effective leading to more flooding.

C3.3.2 Opportunities

Increased flood risk provides few direct opportunities with the exception of:

• Development of new flood proofing and flood protection products; and

• Specialist services to reduce the risks of supply chain or utility disruption due to

flooding.

Climate change does however provide an added incentive to develop more sustainable drainage in urban and rural areas, change land use practices and to develop “win-win” situations that reduce flood risks and create new wetland habitats.

C3.3.3 Conclusions

In terms of fluvial flood risks the implications will be:

• Flooding events are likely to occur more frequently;

• Flood banks designed for infrequent use will be in use more often; and

• Urban drainage systems will not be able to cope with the increase intensity of winter

rainfall events leading to more urban flooding and the disruption of urban transport systems.

The changing nature of flooding has important implications for the Environment Agency, local authorities, Yorkshire Forward, the RDA, nature conservation groups and anyone living and working in areas that are at risk.

C3.4 Water Resources

C3.4.1 Impacts

The main impacts on water resources include:

• Overall groundwater levels will increase under the climate scenarios due to the increase

in winter rainfall;

• Although the average situation will improve the increase variability of climate will mean

that there will be increase risks of single drought years. Individual sources and water resource zones at risk and alternative emergency sources of water need to be identified as part of the water resource planning and drought contingency planning process;

• The demand for water will increase in warmer and drier months; and

• Some types of agriculture will have a considerable increase in demand during the

summer.

C3.4.2 Opportunities

Opportunities should include:

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• Changing chemical and physical river environments may provide opportunities for some

conservation gain; and

• The development of real-time control technologies for industrial abstractions and

discharges.

C3.5 Industry and Commerce

C3.5.1 Impacts

The impacts of climate change on industry and commerce are likely to be complex and interrelated. The perceptions of change and future climates may influence:

• Business location;

• industrial design and process efficiency;

• The design of buildings and building standards;

• The forms of products;

• Industrial relations;

• Elements of the general regional infrastructure; and

• Finance, investment priorities and insurance.

Changes in “normal climate” will have an effect on a whole range of infrastructure elements. The condition of roads, the stability of buildings, bridges, earth banks and dams and much else is a function of the climate in which they exist. Changes in design and the incidence of maintenance work was acknowledged as being affected.

Opportunities

There are no opportunities identified.

Conclusion

Forward planning to allow a precautionary attitude to some of the dis-benefits of climate change needs to be encouraged at the regional and local level. Local planning procedures in relation to industrial development need to have climate change implications at the forefront of procedures.

C3.6 Services

C3.6.1 Impacts

Tourism

There are continuous efforts to develop tourism in the Region and whilst there is a well- developed appreciation in the tourism industry that there must be a nurturing and constant development of tourism there is less awareness of the potential opportunities related to climate change.

Leisure and Sport Activities

Bodies running leisure activities have not really developed strategies related to the potential impacts of climate change but leisure activities are very dependant on the weather and have been heavily impacted in those years with unusual weather patterns.

Cultural Heritage

The anticipated change in the Region’s climate is likely to have a significant effect, both directly and indirectly, upon the heritage assets of the Region.

Construction of extensive flood defences to protect properties could for example destroy archaeological remains.

Increased rainfall will result in faster rates of erosion of the fabric of historic buildings of the Region. Apart from the damage that may be caused to buildings through flooding, the construction of flood defence works can have a major impact upon the character of historic settlements.

C3.6.2 Opportunities

There are a number of potential opportunities for the service sector:

• Environmental technology services are a growth sector and could be encouraged in the

region;

• The development of specialist insurance and flood-proofing services;

• Developing partnerships: There is a key role for local authorities to promote coordinated

policy responses to climate change impacts;

• The development of adaptive and flexible responses; and

• Awareness raising.

C3.7 Conclusion

The service sector is diverse and therefore so are the responses and opportunities in relation to potential climate change. The tourism sector probably has the most to gain from a change of climate, where as for the insurance sector there are considerable challenges. The sport and leisure industry faces a number of adverse spin-offs from climate change and it is important that the development of new and innovative facilities are planned with a change of climate in mind.

C3.8 Transport

C3.8.1 Impacts

The main impacts of climate change:

• Frequent flooding which will affect particular parts of the region’s road and rail

infrastructure due to the inability of drainage systems to cope with the intensity of water rainfall events;

• Increased risk of landslips along transport routes;

• General disruption of all transport operations (road, rail and air) resulting in economic

losses; and

• A change in the transport use and the consequent effects on health.

C3.8.2 Opportunities

The impact of climate change on the Region’s transport system has few opportunities other than ensuring that it is protected against flooding. Transport investments over the next 20- 30 years should require all transport infrastructure developments to be climate change compliant.

Conclusions

Climate change impacts present the transport system with very real threats and opportunities. The threats are physical and have a direct bearing on the economic

prosperity, competitiveness and quality of life of the Region. The consequence of higher car use is very worrying from a health, greenhouse gas, congestion and competitiveness point of view.