China

Table A.IV.1 presents the main assumptions of technology and market, used in each scenario for Norway and Austria. Table 9.2 and 9.3 present the policy assumptions for Norway and Austria respectively.

Table A.IV.1 Key characteristics of the four scenarios and the base scenario for Norway and Austria. Technology and supply factors. Source: Fearnley et al., 2015.

Base scenario 1) Electromobility

delight: 2) Wishfulthinking 3) Electromobilityoblivion: 4) Technologypush BEV net

prices Stable until battery technology (range) improves. Then 2.5% annual reduction

2.5% price reduction per year from 2018 and until prices are equivalent to ICEs

Half the reductions of the base scenario

Half the reductions of the base scenario

2.5% price reduction per year from 2018 and until prices are equivalent to ICEs Range Major improvements

before 2020 followed by an annual 3.5% improvement up to cut-off levels Same as base. (Improvements translate into faster cost reductions)

1% improvement rather than the 2.5% in the base scenario (from same years)

1% improvement rather than the 2.5% in the base scenario (from same years)

Same as base. (Improvements translate into faster cost reductions) Makes and

models Increase of 2 per year per segment of BEVs and 2 per year for family and luxury PHEVs

10 new makes/models each year for both BEVs and PHEVs

Same as base

scenario Stabilises at 2017 levels 10 new makes/models each year for both BEVs and PHEVs ICE fuel

consumption and vehicle cost

Annual reduction of about 1.4 percent per year up to 2020 followed by slower reduction

Same as base scenario Same as base

scenario Same as base scenario Same as base scenario

The technology push scenario generates almost as many BEV sales as the technology delight scenario indicating that there are limits to what can be achieved with

individual countries’ national policies. The Wishful-thinking scenario illustrates this further, as sales cannot be influenced by stronger policies without technological improvements and a larger selection of makes and models and models becoming available on the market. In a scenario of low policies and limited technological, the development of the BEV market stagnates. Government revenues and the

consumption of fossil fuels and electricity develop proportionally to the BEV fleet shares.

Table A.IV.2 Key characteristics of the four scenarios and base scenario for Norway. Policy factors. Source: Fearnley et al., 2015.

Base scenario 1) Electromobility

delight: 2) Wishful thinking 3) Electromobility oblivion: 4) Technology push VAT 0% 2005-17 8% 2018-22 13% 2023-27 25% 2028 Base scenario developments postponed 5 years Same as 1) Electromobility delight scenario 0% 2005-17 8% 2018-19 13% 2020-21 25% 2022 0% 2005-17 8% 2018-19 13% 2020-21 25% 2022

Purchase tax Luxury BEV: from 0 to 20% 2017-21. Other BEVs: 0% Compact and family PHEVs fall to zero Luxury PHEV 34%

Same as base but luxury

BEV tax is kept at 0% Same as 1) Electromobility delight scenario

BEV and PHEV tax set to ½ that of ICEs of same car segment. Phased in over five years starting in 202011

BEV and PHEV tax set to ½ that of ICEs. Phased in over five years starting in 2020 Toll Road Free 2005-2016, then

½ ICE rates Base scenario development postponed 5 years

Same as 1) Electromobility delight scenario

Full payment from

2017 Full payment from 2017

Parking fees Free Free Free Full fees from

2020 Full fees from 2020 Petrol tax and

cost of liquid fuels

3.2% increase 2014- 2025. After 2026 price will increase inversely of reduced car fuel

consumption. Petrol tax increases at same percentage as petrol price.

Annual increase of 3.2% in petrol price (pump price) throughout the period to 2045 due to petrol tax and oil price increases. Petrol tax increases at same percentage as petrol price. Same as 1) Electromobility delight scenario Same as base

scenario Same as base scenario

User value of estimated time savings of BEV bus lane access and dedicated parking

Gradually reduction

to zero in 2030 Reduction twice as fast as the base scenario, due to congested bus lanes and parking lots

Same as base

scenario Reduction twice as faster as the base scenario, due to unfavourable policy

Reduction twice as faster as the base scenario, due to unfavourable policy

11 _{Cf. The Norwegian Climate Policy settlement, which states that EVs and low-emission vehicles}

shall be treated favourable in the tax system compared to ICE vehicles. .

Table A.IV.3 Key characteristics of the four scenarios and base scenario for Austria, Policy factors. Source: Fearnley et al., 2015.

Base scenario 1) Electromobility

delight: 2) Wishful thinking 3) Electromobility oblivion 4) Technology push VAT No exemption no exemption no exemption no exemption no exemption Purchase tax 0% for all types of _BEVs

2.8% instead of 6.1% Compact PHEV 5.0% instead of 7.3% Family PHEV 9.5% instead of 14.0% Luxury PHEV

Same as base Same as base BEV and PHEV tax set to ½ that of ICEs of same car segment. Phased in over five years starting in 2020

Same as 3) Electromobility oblivion

Toll Road BEV and PHEV

same as ICE Free 2015-2020, then ½ ICE rates Same as 1) Electromobility delight scenario

Same as base Same as base Parking fees No exemption No exemption No exemption No exemption No exemption Petrol tax and

cost of liquid fuels

3.2% increase 2014- 2025. After 2026 price will increase inversely of reduced car fuel

consumption. Petrol tax increases at same percentage as petrol price. Annual increase of 3.2% in petrol price (pump price) throughout the period to 2045 due to petrol tax and oil price increases. Petrol tax increases at same percentage as petrol price. Same as 1 Electromobility delight scenario Same as base

scenario Same as base scenario

User value of estimated time savings of EV bus lane access and dedicated parking

No time savings No time savings No time savings No time savings No time savings

Direct

subsidies Subsidies stop in 2018 Phase out (end of) is postponed by 5 years Same as base Subsidies stop in 2016 Same as 3) Electromobility oblivion

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