Research has shown that right-leaning individuals, which in Australia include Liberal and Nationals supporters, are predisposed to oppose immigrants more generally (Espenshade & Hempstead, 1996; Hainmueller & Hopkins, 2014; Lamb, 2011; Rustenbach, 2010). Like in the case of attitudes towards the effects of immigration discussed in the previous chapter, the findings in this chapter indicate that there is a strong correlation between political identification and attitudes to asylum seekers. In this case, however, the relationships between party identification and attitudes are even more prominent with clearer differences emerging between the major parties. Table 7.2, p. 172, shows the results of a contingency analysis of
political party identification and attitudes towards asylum seekers in 2001, 2004, 2010 and 2013.
In 2001, the results show that of those respondents who identify with the Liberal Party, almost three-quarters held the view that boats carrying asylum seekers should be turned back. By contrast, only half of those who identified with the Labor Party had the same view. While fewer than 50 respondents identified with the One Nation Party, 83.0 per cent of them held the view that the boats should be turned back. This result contrasts with the result for those who identified with the Australian Democrats and the Greens where 37.3 and 32.1 per cent held the same view,
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and some 54.5 per cent of those respondents held the same view that boats should be turned back.
Table 7.2 Bivariate analysis of attitudes towards asylum seekers by party identification, AES 2001, 2004, 2010, 2013
Per cent who agree asylum boats should be turned back
2001 2004 2010 2013 (%) (n) (%) (n) (%) (n) (%) (n) Liberals 74.5 721 68.6 688 62.3 742 65.5 1328 Labor 54.2 679 44.3 539 45.5 782 39.1 1341 Nationals 75.4 69 73.6 53 84.8 66 67.4 138 Democrats 37.3 51 72.7 11 --- --- --- --- Greens 32.1 53 16.9 83 19.7 122 15.2 237 One Nation 83.0 47 90.0 10 --- --- --- --- Other 66.7 12 25.0 16 40.7 59 44.4 151 No Party 54.5 286 47.4 268 45.6 283 42.1 644 Total 1918 1668 2054 3839 Chi-square χ²=234.81*** df=28 χ²=256.70*** df=28 χ²=214.13*** df=20 χ²=593.45*** df=20
Data source: AES 2001 (Bean et al., 2004); AES 2004 (Bean et al., 2005); AES 2010 (McAllister et
al., 2011); AES 2013 (Bean et al., 2014a). Notes: * Statistically significant at p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001. Weighted and rounded results for 2010 and 2013.
The 2004 AES main response categories for political identification were the same as in 2001. Table 7.2 reveals generally more favourable views towards asylum seekers in 2004. The major parties have fewer respondents indicating a preference to turn back the boats in 2004 compared to 2001, however the same cannot be said for those who identify with the One Nation Party and the Australian Democrats: 90.0 per cent of those who identified with the One Nation Party and 72.2 per cent of those who identified with the Australian Democrats believed asylum boats should be turned back. This result is not surprising for One Nation given their prominent opposition to immigrants and asylum seekers (Jupp, 1998). The result for the
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Democrats may be explained by the party’s policy position on immigration, which aimed to limit Australia’s population to an environmentally sustainable level (Coulter, 2001). However, it must be noted that the sample for individuals identifying with the Democrats was extremely small and the result should not be taken to be representative. Note also that the party lost three senators at the 2004 federal election and parliamentary status the following year.
The main response categories for political identification had been revised by the AES authors by 2010, and no longer included categories for the Democrats or One Nation following the demise of those parties. The results show that of those who identified with the Nationals, some 84.8 per cent thought asylum boats should be turned back. Far more of those who identified with the Liberals held the view that boats should be turned back than did those who identified with Labor, at 62.3 and 45.5 per cent respectively. Of those who identify with the Greens, only 19.7 per cent believed that asylum boats should be turned back.
The analysis also shows a strong correlation between party identification and attitudes in 2013. Notably the percentage of respondents who identify with the Liberals and Nationals and who believe asylum boats should be turned back were roughly equal at 65.5 and 67.4 per cent respectively. Conversely, the percentage of Labor supporters who preferred to turn back asylum boats in that year was just 39.1 per cent. Even fewer Greens supporters expressed the view that boats should be turned back; only 15.2 per cent of those respondents who identified with the Greens expressed the view. For those who identified with another minor party, or no party at all, approximately two-fifths of both groups expressed the view that the boats should be turned back.
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Overall, a lessening of hostility towards asylum seekers can be seen between 2001 and 2013. The differences are perhaps most notable among Labor supporters, where there is a 15.1 point difference between 2001 and 2013. The difference between 2001 and 2013 for the Liberals and Nationals is less, with 9.0 and 8.0 point differences respectively. The findings presented here are largely in line with what would be expected under political affiliation theory in terms of left-right divisions, and are similar to those discussed in Chapter 6 (p. 138) concerning attitudes towards the effects of immigration. However, here the differences between supporters of left and right-leaning parties are even more prominent in regard to asylum seekers. In the next section, I consider political identification while controlling for other factors, using multivariate analysis.
7.4Multivariate findings
In this section, I investigate the relationships between several background factors and attitudes towards turning back boats carrying asylum seekers. Existing theory
concerning attitudes towards regular immigrants guided the selection of variables in the regression model that is presented in this section. Level of education, occupation type, and income were included as they are likely to reveal the applicability of human capital and economic competition theories. In order to provide greater detail than only identifying those who are university educated and those who are not, the data was coded to reveal those who have studied at university, those who have completed other post-school qualifications, and those respondents who have not completed post-school study. Occupations were similarly coded to reflect three divisions: professional occupations, clerical and sales workers, and labourers. Income was coded to reflect differences between low, and moderate to high income
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earners, but also to account for the large percentage of missing responses for this measure – see Appendix A.
Gender was included on the basis that gendered explanations for attitudes in Australia have been offered in both a general sense (McAllister, 2011) and
specifically concerning asylum seekers (Pedersen et al., 2005). Further, an
interaction term between gender and age is included in the model to test if attitudes are different for gender depending on the age of the respondent. Ethnicity is not included in the analysis, however a binary variable concerning place of birth is included in order to differentiate between those Australians who were born abroad and those who were born locally. Similarly, place of residence is included, with the expectation that those respondents who live in rural areas will have less exposure to asylum seekers and, consequently, less favourable attitudes.
7.4.1Findings
The results of my analysis concerning attitudes towards asylum seekers are presented in Table 7.3, p. 181. Like the regression analysis presented in the previous chapter concerning attitudes towards immigration, this analysis was performed using the GENLIN function in SPSS, which does not generate a single statistic showing the goodness of fit of the model – this function was used so that the results of an ordered logistic regression could also be presented. Again, R-squared results are generally not discussed in generalised linear model texts (see IBM, 2016; McCullagh & Nelder, 1989) and, consequently, a test of model effects is presented in Appendix K, that indicates which variables contribute to the model. Like the analysis of attitudes towards equal opportunities for immigrants that was presented in the previous
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linear model, even though the dependent variable is a categorical measure. Treating the measure as interval data, and using linear regression, has been done in order to examine the directionality of the coefficients in the context of the earlier analysis concerning attitudes towards immigration policy and the effects of immigration on society, where linear estimates were presented for scale-type dependent variables. Noting that the dependent variable presented in this section is categorical, ordered logistic regression analysis was also performed in order to test the robustness of the findings. This additional analysis is presented in Appendix L and produced
coefficients that have similar relationships with the dependent variable, which confirms the robustness of the model as discussed in the following text.
Economic competition and human capital theories
The model indicates a statistically significant positive relationship between education and attitudes towards asylum seekers. A similar finding can be seen for those holding diploma qualifications. That is, those with university education or diplomas have more favourable attitudes towards asylum seekers, or are less inclined to respond that boats should be tuned back, relative to the base category of no
qualification. Working as a labourer was shown to have a negative relationship with attitudes towards asylum seekers, though this finding did not meet standard levels of statistical significance. This finding may suggest that the trade labour movement, which publicly supports asylum seekers (see ACTU, 2012), has had some effect on the attitudes of working labourers. According to the Australian Council of Trade Unions, “[w]hile Australia has a right to protect its borders and manage an orderly immigration program, asylum seekers should not become a political
football”(ACTU, 2010). Unions were also vocal in opposing Labor’s plan to divert asylum boats to Papua New Guinea (AFR, 2013).
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Low income was not shown to have a statistically significant relationship with attitudes towards asylum seekers. This is an important finding in the context of asylum seekers being painted as economic migrants by political elites (see discussion p. 89) – but here there is no evidence to suggest that low-income individuals express more negative views relative to those on higher incomes. However, as noted in the previous chapter, a large percentage of respondents did not answer the income question and were placed into the ‘did not report income’ category in order to determine if not reporting income had relevance in the regression models.
Notably, not reporting income was shown to have a negative, statistically significant relationship with attitudes towards asylum seekers, relative to the
reference category of moderate to high income – a similar relationship was observed in the previous chapter concerning attitudes towards equal opportunities for
immigrants, see Table 6.4, p. 156. There are many reasons why respondents may not respond to survey questions (Bertrand & Mullainathan, 2001; Brick & Kalton, 1996). It could be the case that these respondents simply had privacy concerns, or it could be the case that those who did not respond had very low, or very high, incomes and chose not to report them, or the respondents could share some other quality. This finding leads to further questions concerning those who choose not to report income, which I will return to in the conclusion of this chapter and the concluding chapter of this thesis. Considering these three socioeconomic measures, economic competition does not appear to be related to attitudes towards asylum seekers.
Partisanship and political interest
The model shows that the relationship between partisan attitudes towards asylum seekers, for those who strongly identify with the political right, is negative and statistically significant. Much like the partisan differences that Albertson and
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Gadarian (2012) observed among Democrats and Republicans in terms of attitudes towards irregular immigration in the United States, here partisan differences can be seen between strong Liberal and Labour supporters (the reference category). The interaction effects in the model suggest that strongly identifying with a right-leaning party, the Liberal or National parties, compounds the negative relationship with attitudes towards asylum seekers – confirming the hypothesis that strongly identifying with the political right will compound the effect of partisanship.
Statistically significant results were not identified for the Greens, Other, or No party. As discussed in the previous chapter, the statistical significance of the terms in the model is relative to the reference category, which is Labor. Using the formula discussed in the previous chapter, it is possible to additionally consider the
differences between interaction terms relating to strength of political identification. As stated previously, the difference between very strong Liberal and very strong Labor would be
�𝛽𝛽Lib+ 𝛽𝛽VS+ 𝛽𝛽LibVS� − �𝛽𝛽Lab+ 𝛽𝛽VS+ 𝛽𝛽LabVS �= 𝛽𝛽Lib+ 𝛽𝛽LibVS where 𝛽𝛽Libis the coefficient from ‘Liberal’ and 𝛽𝛽LibVS is the interaction term from ‘Liberal x Very strong’. Using this formula, the values for this difference would be
�𝛽𝛽Lib+ 𝛽𝛽LibVS� − �𝛽𝛽Lab+ 𝛽𝛽LabVS �= –0.465 – 0.444 = –0.909. To take another
example, the difference between very strong Liberal and very strong National in the
model would be �𝛽𝛽Lib+ 𝛽𝛽LibVS� − �𝛽𝛽Nat+ 𝛽𝛽NatVS� = (–0.465 – 0.444) – (–0.283 – 0.718) = 0.092. Therefore, a very strong Liberal identifier is 0.092 units more supportive of asylum seekers than a very strong National identifier.
Items demonstrating an interest in politics, the political system and the election outcome were expected to reveal that respondents who are interested in the political process would have more favourable attitudes. Low or no support for
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compulsory voting, not caring which party wins the election, and having low interest in politics were all shown to have statistically significant negative relationships with attitudes towards asylum seekers. Political knowledge, meanwhile, was shown to have a positive relationship with tested attitudes, confirming the hypothesis that individuals with higher levels of political knowledge will hold more favourable views towards asylum seekers.
Based on these findings, the hypothesis that individuals with lower levels of political knowledge and interest will hold more unfavourable views towards asylum seekers is confirmed, as is the hypothesis that strongly identifying with the political right will have a compounding and negative relationship with attitudes towards asylum seekers. Relative to the analysis that was performed in the previous chapter concerning attitudes towards immigration, one notable difference can be seen in that not caring which party wins was statistically significant in this regression model and had a negative relationship with attitudes towards asylum seekers.
Control variables and attitudes
The data indicate a statistically significant relationship between an interaction term for gender and age, and attitudes towards asylum seekers. This interaction term for gender and age was added to the model in order to increase understanding of the relationships between these two variables, and attitudes towards asylum seekers. The presence of a significant interaction term in the model indicates that attitudes are different for gender depending on the age of the respondent (see also Pedersen et al., 2000; Walker, 1994).
Living in a rural area is shown to have a negative relationship with attitudes towards asylum seekers. Contrary to the findings presented in relation to attitudes towards immigrants, place of birth does not have a statistically significant
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relationship with attitudes towards asylum seekers. In the context of my earlier finding that being born abroad has a positive relationship with attitudes towards immigration, being born abroad does not have a statistically significant relationship with attitudes towards asylum seekers. This is a particularly notable finding which suggests that immigrants, who form a substantial portion of the Australian
population, do not hold the same positive views towards asylum seekers that they do towards regular immigrants.
Year was controlled for in the analysis and revealed decreasing hostility towards asylum seekers. Relative to the base category, 2013, the regression coefficients indicate attitudes were more negative in 2001, 2004 and 2010. This suggests that over time attitudes have become more favourable, and were most favourable in the reference year, 2013.
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Table 7.3 Favourable attitudes towards asylum seekers, AES 2001, 2004, 2010, 2013 (OLS estimates) b SE Party identification National -0.283 * 0.136 Liberal -0.465 *** 0.058 Greens 0.586 *** 0.111 Other -0.155 0.134 No party -0.175 0.174 Labor - -
Political interest and knowledge
Very strong supporter 0.137 ** 0.050
Strength not reported -0.125 0.204
Not very strong supporter - -
Votes because it is compulsory -0.158 *** 0.033 Would definitely vote even if not compulsory - - Does not care much or at all which party wins -0.108 ** 0.036
Cares a good deal which party wins - -
Not much or no interest in politics -0.269 *** 0.038 Some or a good deal of interest in politics - -
Political knowledge 0.057 *** 0.009
Party identification x strength
National x very strong -0.718 *** 0.162
National x strength not reported -0.009 0.892
National x not very strong supporter - -
Liberal x very strong -0.444 *** 0.069
Liberal x strength not reported -0.288 0.281
Liberal x not very strong supporter - -
Greens x very strong 0.154 0.134
Greens x strength not reported -0.247 0.737
Greens x not very strong supporter - -
Other x very strong -0.201 0.164
Other x strength not reported 0.214 0.325
Other x not very strong supporter - -
No party x very strong -0.462 0.570
No party x strength not reported 0.216 0.268
No party x not very strong supporter - -
Labor x very strong - -
Labor x strength not reported - -
Labor x not very strong supporter - -
Socioeconomic measures
University educated 0.765 *** 0.039
Diploma 0.359 *** 0.046
Other qualification -0.034 0.035
No qualification - -
Occupation not reported 0.015 0.048
Clerical and sales -0.020 0.036
Labourer -0.058 0.037
Professional - -
Income not reported -0.123 * 0.058
Low income -0.011 0.032
Moderate to high income - -
Background Male 0.165 0.087 Female - - Age -0.002 0.001 Male x age -0.004 ** 0.002 Female x age - - Born abroad -0.027 0.032 Born in Australia - - Rural -0.209 *** 0.028
182 Urban - - Year 2001 -0.300 *** 0.038 2004 -0.150 *** 0.041 2010 -0.092 ** 0.035 2013 - - Intercept 2.939 *** 0.093 (N) 8454
Data source: AES 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013. Notes: - This parameter is zero because it is redundant * Statistically
significant at p ≤ .05, **p ≤ .01, ***p ≤ .001. Multicollinearity: examination of the correlation matrix for parameter estimates did not reveal evidence of multicollinearity. Sample not weighted, variables recoded as per Appendix A.