No comprehensive scenarios already published for the sales and penetration of different lighting types have been identified by this study; as a consequence, scenarios have been constructed from various sources. A key driver on the type of lighting sales is regulation, such as the phase-out of incandescent lamps. Based on proposed regulatory changes, the IEA forecasts annual CFL sales of around 630 million within the EU, assuming that the phase-out is steady rather than fast (International Energy Agency (IEA), 2010a).
In addition to CFLs, LFLs must be considered in the study. Analysis of PRODCOM EU production data and EU trade statistics puts annual EU consumption at approximately 350 million LFLs for 2010.
Street lighting should also be considered, as it is seen as an important market for LED lighting. The in- stalled stock of streetlights in EU-25 was estimated at 56.1 million units in 2007 (EC, 2007c). Under the assumption that bulbs are replaced every three years, and that the EU market has expanded with the admission of two further countries into the EU, annual sales may be approximately 20 million bulbs per year.
As can be shown (Figure 21), some growth in annual lighting sales is anticipated over time; it is forecast at 3% per year globally. Annual growth rates for a more mature market such as the EU might be expected to be lower than for the world as a whole. For this study, EU annual light sales growth is modelled at a more modest 1.84% per year, as indicated by forecasts from McKinsey for the growth of the general lighting markets to 2020 (McKinsey, 2012).
Figure 21: Global lighting sockets (billion units)
Source: Aixtron, 2012
A further parameter within the scenario concerns the penetration of LED lighting onto the market. Whilst neither the US Department of Energy nor IEA consider this technology shift in their studies, the lower manufacturing costs and the benefits offered by its higher energy efficiency mean that large scale adop-
tion is possible. For example, forecasts show LED penetration reaching 30% of the total lighting market by 2015 (Figure 21). Higher rates of uptake are possible, with McKinsey forecasting 46% LED penetration by 2016, and 72% for 2020 within Europe (McKinsey, 2012). However, for modelling purposes in this study, LED penetration is assumed to be 5% for 2011, 30% for 2020 and 60% for 2030. This represents average uptake over the entire decade, although higher rates of LED uptake are discussed in section 4.6.3.
The metals requirements for ‘energy efficiency in buildings – lighting’ are shown in Table 78. This analysis highlights the usage of heavy rare earth elements (yttrium, terbium and europium), germanium and gallium as representing important material requirements for implementing the path for decarbonising the EU energy sector. For the heavy rare earth elements their usage is mainly within fluorescent lamps, which are expected to be gradually replaced by LEDs over time. Nonetheless metals requirements for terbium and europium within EU lighting are estimated to represent nearly 10% of current global supply in 2011. Yttrium is also used in fluorescent lighting with requirements of around 5% for 2011. Yttrium is also used to a small extent within LED lighting. For gallium and germanium, requirements within LED lighting are expected to grow to around 2.5% of total supply in 2030.
Table 78: Lighting metals requirements Technology Elements Annual EU Demand (tonnes)
Annual EU Demand / World Supply 2011 2020 2030 2011 2020 2030 Lighting Tb 36.5 32.3 22.1 10.4% 6.3% 2.7% Ge 0.6 4.6 11.0 0.3% 1.4% 2.5% Ga 0.8 5.9 14.3 0.3% 1.3% 2.3% Eu 38.9 34.4 23.6 9.6% 4.5% 2.0% Y 547.7 484.8 333.3 4.8% 3.1% 1.3% Au 3.4 24.7 59.2 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% Ag 9.6 69.1 165.8 <0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Gd 14.6 12.9 8.9 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% In 0.1 0.7 1.8 <0.1% <0.1% 0.1% Cu 1,852.0 5,271.0 10,714.0 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% La 66.9 59.2 40.6 0.2% 0.1% <0.1% Ce 85.7 75.8 52.0 0.2% 0.1% <0.1% Sn 39.7 59.3 87.9 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% Ni 203.4 292.7 421.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% Sr 85.9 75.9 52.1 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% Zn 156.7 372.3 712.2 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% Mg 85.2 75.3 51.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% Zr 85.2 75.3 51.7 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% Sb 0.1 0.5 1.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% Mn 209.5 185.3 127.0 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% Cr 1.3 9.2 22.0 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% W 0.0 0.1 0.2 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% Pb 0.0 0.1 0.3 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1%
4.3.10 Road transport efficiency
No suitable or detailed EU scenario for road transport efficiency is provided in the 2050 roadmap. There- fore models are based on the forecasts produced by Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank Global Markets
Research, 2009). These forecasts provide detailed projections for the uptake of four different types of vehicles (mild hybrid, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric vehicle). The scenarios modelled for fuel cell vehicle motor drive scenarios are compatible with those used in the fuel cell scenarios. Figure 22 shows the uptake of low-carbon vehicles in the EU for fuel cell vehicles (FCV), battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in electric vehicles (PHEV), mild hybrids (mild HV) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEV).
Assumptions have also been made on the size and type of motor drives, and the choice of batteries (NiMH versus Li-ion, including specific Li-ion chemistry options). Due to the magnitude and sensitivities associated with the modelling results for this technology, data and scenarios have been extensively verified in consultation with industry stakeholders.
Various other forecasts and scenarios are available for road transport efficiency, both for its uptake and its possible technology mix. Other scenarios considered include those by: IEA, 2011a; McKinsey, 2010; J.D. Power and Associates, 2010; Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, 2010; Boston Consulting Group, 2011; Credit Suisse, 2009b; and CE Delft, 2011. A useful summary is provided by Pasaoglu et al. (2012). Further discussion and the modelling of these alternative scenarios are provided in Section 4.6.2.
Figure 22: Uptake of low-carbon vehicles for the EU under the Deutsche Bank scenario
Source: Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research, 2009
Using the Deutsche Bank forecasts, the material requirements for hybrid and electric vehicle batteries and drive motors are shown in Table 79. There are a number of important materials requirements for the implementation of the path for the decarbonisation of EU energy sector:
• For drive motors, the focus is on three rare earth elements; dysprosium and neodymium- praseodymium.14 The supply is notably tighter for the heavy rare earth element, dysprosi- um, where around 25% of world supply is required. Demand for neodymium-praseodymium is lower, at 7% of expected world supply.
• For batteries, there is a split between NiMH, which has been the battery of choice for many
hybrid vehicles; and the adoption of Li-ion. For 2011, in percentage terms, the materials re- quirements for NiMH batteries (lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium and samarium) are comparable to those for Li-ion batteries (lithium, cobalt and graphite) at around 1-2% of current world supply. However, the uptake of electric vehicles to 2030 and the shift to ex- clusively Li-ion batteries places the highest materials requirements on lithium (19%), graph- ite (15%) and cobalt (2%).
Table 79: Road transport efficiency materials requirements Technology Elements Annual EU Demand (tonnes)
Annual EU Demand / World Supply 2011 2020 2030 2011 2020 2030 (H)EV batteries and drive motors Dy 123 566 980 6.7% 22.7% 25.0% Li 314 2,214 6,939 1.5% 7.8% 19.0% Graphite 8,575 60,464 189,471 0.9% 5.1% 14.4% Nd-Pr 702 4,425 6,803 2.4% 7.0% 6.9% Co 1,196 4,412 7,390 0.9% 1.9% 2.2% La 894 2,279 707 2.5% 2.9% 0.6% Sm 59 150 47 1.9% 2.7% 0.5% Ni 5,966 18,931 22,327 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% Cu 3,607 25,703 79,708 <0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Ce 597 1,522 472 1.2% 1.3% 0.3% Mn 987 6,961 21,814 <0.1% <0.1% 0.1% B 125 724 1,883 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1% Ti 57 879 2,205 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1%
4.3.11 Desalination
Though large desalination plants are generally thermal plants operating with waste heat from a neigh- bouring thermal power plant, reverse osmosis plants nowadays account for most of the new installed capacity, resulting in less stringent material specifications due to milder conditions (Khawaji et al., 2008; Frost & Sullivan, 2010a).
The global capacity of operating desalination plants (drinking water) was estimated to be approximately 52 million m3 per day in 2008 (ProDes Consortium, 2010). A total desalination capacity of 155- 220 million m3 per day in 2030 has been proposed (as a conservative projection) based on recent and projected rates of increase in installed capacity (Angerer et al., 2009). Assuming a doubling in the installed capacity by 2016 compared to 2008 implies a yearly growth rate of 9% which, if extrapolated to 2030, leads to a total installed capacity of around 345 million m3 (Figure 23).
In the most material-intensive case, the expansion in capacity would be covered by thermal facilities (MSF and MED). However, the current trend points to most of the additional capacity being due to RO facilities requiring less corrosion resistant materials. Over 90% of newly-built desalinisation plants are based on RO (Frost & Sullivan, 2010a).
Nonetheless, this analysis highlights that the use of molybdenum, nickel and chromium within corrosive resistant alloys represents the greatest material requirements for implementing the path for decarbonis- ing the EU energy sector.
Figure 23: Extrapolation of desalination capacity to 2030 based on three different growth assumptions
Source: (RZT1 and RZT2 after Angerer et al., 2009 with an updated starting value; ProDes extrapolates from ProDes Consortium, 2010).
Table 80: Desalination metals requirements Technology Elements Annual EU Demand (tonnes) Annual EU Demand / World Supply 2011 2020 2030 2011 2020 2030 Desalination Mo 0.0 7,561 9,470 <0.1% 1.6% 1.5% Ni 0.0 37,497 46,968 <0.1% 1.0% 0.9% Cr 0.0 52,397 65,631 <0.1% 0.4% 0.4% Ti 0.0 2,084 2,610 <0.1% <0.1% <0.1%