Evaluación de los copolímeros obtenidos

2.11.1 Japan: population mortality

The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) prepares two series of life tables ― the Complete and the Abridged Life Tables. The former are constructed every five years based on the Annual Vital Statistics and the Population Census. The latter are based on the Provisional Annual Vital Statistics and the Population Estimates. The Complete Life Tables for Japan were first prepared for the period 1891-98 and the life tables and the 20^th Life Tables were made available for this study.

The newest complete life tables “The 20th life tables” are based on the Annual Vital Statistics and the Population Census in 2005. MHLW smoothed the mortality rates by using Greville’s formula (3rd order, 9 terms). In addition, they estimated and extrapolated the mortality rates by using Gompertz-Makeham function for advanced ages (over 90 for males and over 95 for females).

In this study, the population mortality experience in Japan in 2007 available from the Human Mortality Database has been assumed.

2.11.2 Japan: mortality assumptions used to assess retirement liabilities within pension funding valuations

Types and Coverage of DB Schemes

In Japan, there are three types of occupational defined benefit pension schemes. In Tax Qualified Pension Plans (TQPPs), which are governed by the National Tax Agency, approximately 25,000 schemes covered 3.5 million active members at the end of March, 2009. Because the tax advantageous status of these schemes would be valid only until the end of March 2012, they would be forced to be transformed to the rest of two types of defined benefit schemes or defined contribution schemes, whichever is suitable for each scheme, or to be wound-up.

Employees’ Pension Funds (EPFs) are legal entities defined in Employees’ Pension Insurance (EPI) Law and regulated and supervised by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW). These schemes include a function which plays a part of EPI, the state earnings related pension scheme that covers 34 million private sector employees, by substituting a part of its old age pensions.

Defined Benefit Corporate Pension Plans (DBs), also regulated and supervised by MHLW, were introduced in 2002 aiming at the protection of pension benefits by disclosures, fiduciary standards, and funding disciplines. TQPPs and EPFs can be transformed to DBs, although, in the latter case, the transfer to the Government of the Substitutional Portion of EPF Liabilities and corresponding Assets is required. As of the same date above, approximately 600 and 5,000 schemes cover 4.7 and 5.7 million active members respectively.

Characteristics of DB Pension Schemes

Because severance allowance schemes, which provide a lump-sum benefit upon each employee’s termination of employment based on the prescribed formula, had been developed in Japan, many firms introduced pension schemes as a transformation of them. Normally, the lump-sum would be compounded at a certain interest rate until the pensionable age and distributed as if the compound value were drawn down for a specified period with a prescribed interest. As a result, although there are some life-annuity requirements in EPFs, the majority of the life-annuity benefits in Japanese DB pension schemes are designed as annuities for a certain period, such as 15 years, with the same guaranteed period. Even in the case of life-annuities, most schemes provide a guaranteed period, such as 15 years. Members retain the option of receiving lump-sum in lieu of annuity benefits. Sponsors rarely provide indexation or joint life-annuities.

Although the reputation on Japanese style annuity benefits in occupational pension schemes would vary, the above situations limit the effect on pension cost caused by mortality improvements, at least to some extent.

Regulations in mortality assumptions

For funding purposes, authorities prescribe standard mortality tables. MHLW prescribed current standard mortality tables for males and females in 2005. DBs and EPFs should use the standard mortality tables. Multiplying by a safety ratio, no less than 90% for male and 85% for females, is granted, although sponsors rarely adopt the alternative. These tables are almost the same as those used in the projection of EPI scheme, which were published in 2004, as present life-base mortality tables for old age pensions. The EPI tables are based on the 19^th population mortality tables (the 19th Life Tables), which were developed by using the Census of 2000, taking EPI’s experiences into account.

New mortality tables for DBs and EPFs, based on 20^th population mortality tables (the 20th Life Tables), and the quinquennial EPI review, have been issued and applied from April 2010. For TQPPs, both the population mortality tables and those for DBs and EPFs are available.

With regard to accounting purposes, although sponsors have ultimate responsibility for setting actuarial assumptions, most sponsors apply the above standard mortality tables.

Annuity Mortality Tables

In Japan, many people purchase individual annuities by themselves. All life insurance companies are required to fund the standard reserves, which are calculated using the standard mortality tables.

The most recent tables, the Standard Mortality Tables 2007 (SMT2007) for Annuitants, were developed by the Institute of Actuaries of Japan (IAJ), and prescribed to use for the contracts issued after April 2007 by Financial Services Agency (FSA). These tables are based on the 19th Life Tables (using the Population Census in 2000). The SMT is constructed by projecting the base table mortality in the future, and the projection period is set to at least 20 years. The improvement rates were determined from the last 25-years improvement rates, and the projection assumes that all lives age x in the SMT 2007 were born in 1960.

Mortality rates for ages 94 and above are extrapolated by the least squares method using a 3-degree polynomial. The mortality rates for ages 16 and below are set at 60%

of the rates in the 19th Tables.

In order to make a provision against the uncertainty of the future mortality improvement, a multiple factor of 85% is applied to the mortality rate for each age.