MO218
Uncertainty concepts and misconceptions for landscape scale risk assessment
P. Thorbek, Syngenta / Environmetal Safety; M. Hamer, Syngenta / Environmental Safety; K.Z. Travis, Syngenta / Product Safety; A. Raybould, Syngenta
In Europe there appears to be two opposing views on the future of ecological risk assessment of pesticides. One aims to improve ecological realism and move towards landscape scale risk assessments whereas the other aims to simplify and focus on lower tier exposure and effect assessment. To some extent this dichotomy is based on differences in uncertainty perception. Thus, one camp focuses on what we here term “in-study uncertainty” and therefore holds that higher tiers are more uncertain than lower tiers. The other camp focuses on what we term “extrapolation uncertainty” and therefore holds that higher tiers are closer to real uses in real landscapes and therefore less uncertain than lower tiers. A purely statistical view of uncertainty often assumes different sources of uncertainty are independent and when this is combined with a focus on high percentiles, uncertainty measures quickly multiply up and inflates the perceived uncertainty. However, biological systems are controlled by a range of feedback and regulating mechanisms aimed at maintaining homeostasis and ecosystems normally have at least some redundancy; therefore uncertainties are typically not multiplicative. Further compounding the different views of uncertainty, is the natural variability in real landscapes. One view holds that the effects of pesticides should be isolated from the natural variability to describe the “true” effect and, since this is difficult, holds that landscape scale risk assessments increases uncertainty. The other view holds that the effect of pesticides should be related to the natural variability and hence landscape scale risk assessments reduce uncertainty. Here we describe different components of uncertainty, what role they play in landscape scale risk assessment and we propose a way forwards for making uncertainty analysis more useful for decision making.
MO219
Concept for a regional geospatial landscape analyses to predict site specific vegetation covers
A. Toschki, Research Institute gaiac; G. Lennartz, Research Institute gaiac / gaiac - Research Institute for Ecosystem Analysis and Assessment; T. Schad, Bayer Ag / Environmental Modelling; T. Preuss, Bayer Ag / Environmental Safety
The spatial pattern of plant communities in the agricultural landscape is depending on land management and the site specific environmental and soil conditions. In vegetation science the composition of plant species and their abundances in dependence on these factors are extensively described. This project follows the hypothesis that if the decisive environmental and soil parameters (soil type, soil texture, moisture etc.) and the determining management drivers (meadow or pasture, extensive or intensive etc.) of a specific site are known it should be possible to predict the vegetation cover and subsequently the composition of plant species on this site. As a starting point the main grassland types of North Rhine-Westphalia and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (Germany) were considered and data for vegetation communities, plant species and their frequency and abundance were imported in a PostGis database. Additionally geospatial data (shapes of grasslands, soil types etc.) were imported in this spatial database. As a second step a matrix of combinations of soil and environmental parameters was built and calibrated in `if-then´ steps with the main preferences of the different vegetation communities. The poster show first prediction results and discuss pro and cons of the concept as well as possible refinements in the future. The supply of data originated from these predictions could be helpful in many facets of risk assessment on a regional scale.
MO220
B-Rice: bird focal species identification in rice paddy
A. Caffi, ICPS International Centre for Pesticides and Health Risk Prevention / Public Health; F. Marchetto, ICPS / Public Health; F. Galimberti, A. Riva, ICPS International Centre for Pesticides and Health Risk Prevention / Public Health; L. Bani, V. Orioli, Università degli Studi Milano Bicocca / Dipartimento di Scienze dellAmbiente e della Terra; S. Ubbiali, ICPS International Centre for Pesticides and Health Risk Prevention / Public Health
Pesticide registration in EU (Reg. 1107/2009 EC) requires appropriate risk assessment for non-target organisms including birds. The European Food Safety Authority developed a Guidance Document (GD) to conduct the risk assessment considering a series of exposure scenarios from a combination of crops and growth stages, selecting relevant species at the lower steps of a tiered approach. The actual GD doesn’t include scenarios for pesticide applications on rice; nowadays bird risk assessment is generally performed considering rice as the other cereals. Rice paddy is characterized by two cultivation conditions: the dry one, comparable to bare soil scenario (as common cereal), for which groups of species are equivalent to those identified for the actual risk assessment and already reported in GD; the flooded one, typical of aquatic environments and wetlands, representative of a unique exposure scenario not yet considered in the employed GD. The aim of this work is to characterize areas of rice growing in Northern Italy, which are representative for humid scenarios (via GIS approach), identify and link the relevant focal species to them. A review of the grey literature will be performed in order to estimate presence, abundance, dominance and diet of species associated to North of Italy rice paddies. Indicator and generic focal species will be proposed for the lower tiers of a Specific Rice Pesticide Risk Assessment and suggested as potential model for the Southern European Zone.
MO221
A process-based population model for algae
L. Azevedo, BASF SE, Agrarzentrum Limburgerhof / Global Toxicology; M. Habekost, BASF Corporation; P. Janz, BASF SE Agrarzentrum Limburgerhof EFSA’s guidance document for the risk assessment of edge-of-field aquatic organisms recommends a maximum of 8 weeks for the ecological recovery option (ERO) of aquatic organisms in a risk assessment for plant protection products (PPP). Here, we propose a process-based model for algal abundance to simulate effects and recovery of algal populations over time following exposure to PPPs. The model integrates the main processes driving algal cell growth, such as (1) toxicity of the PPP and (2) growth limitation due to suboptimal climate conditions, natural mortality, grazing and competition for resources, and density dependence. This model also makes a significant step towards full compliance with EFSA good modelling practices, whereby models for regulatory risk assessments should include validation, and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. In this poster, the formal model as well as sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are depicted. We also employ empirical data from mesocosm studies conducted for a selective herbicide for model validation.
MO222
Population dynamics of a soil arthropod simulated using an individual based population model and established fate model data
D. Nickisch, T. Wittwer, Rifcon GmbH
The prediction of concentrations of plant protection products in soil, surface and ground water using chemical fate modelling is establisehd since decades and applied in European environmental risk assessments (ERA). Many issues, concerns
and limitations were discussed and adequately addressed by scientific communities, applicants and authorities. As a result, a variety of accepted tools are now available for exposure assessment. In contrast, population modelling approaches used in ERA for effect assessment in ecotoxicology are still at a relatively early establishment stage. In this respect, although effect modelling is recognised as a beneficial tool for adding ecological realism to ERAs, EFSA has so far not published any guidance document. Population modelling is at least mentioned in several EFSA (draft) guidances and opinions as a refinement option. However, so far, outcomes of submitted effect modelling approaches in ERAs are not often considered by authorities. Many of the available models deal with protection goals that adress field populations. Therefore, effect models are often stochastic and spatially explicit. This however makes these models more complex in comparison to the established deterministic exposure models and therefore considerable effort is needed for their verification, validation and comprehensive communication. Since effect modelling for ERA aims to predict effects on populations of the model organisms which arise from environmental exposure, we find it meaningful to use, in ecological models, the relevant data from the established fate models. This can make the modelling approaches more harmonised and probably would enhance their acceptability. We illustrated the usability of data on environmental conditions which agree with the established fate models and could as well demonstrate the implications of different environmental conditions on springtail populations. For this purpose, we used an individual based population model which represents the life-cycle of springtails in a tempreature dependent framework. Specifically, we calculated soil temperature series with the groundwater model Pearl. Further, we used weather data given for available FOCUS scenarios and different weather time series from JRC databases. Those series characterised the environment in the springtail model and drove the temperature-dependent model processes.
MO223
Dynamic modelling of fluxes of weathered polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in soil: column experiments vs. modelling approaches in realistic
environmental conditions
C. Vitale, University of Insubria; E. Terzaghi, University of Insubria (Como) / Department of Science and High Technology, Como; M. Morselli, A. Di Guardo, University of Insubria / Department of Science and High Technology
A column leaching experiment was performed to simulate realistic conditions that may be representative of different environmental scenarios and evaluate their influence on mobility and transport associated to dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and fine particles of aged polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (PCB 28, 52, 101, 153, 138, 180, 209) in soil obtained from the Brescia-Caffaro contaminated site. The concentrations measured in leachates were compared to the results of simulations performed with a dynamic air-litter-soil model (SoilPlus model) to investigate the predictive ability and the improvements needed to obtain better predictions. The variables taken into account were: 1) contact time between soil and water, 2) DOC content and quality in leaching solutions and in soil pore water, 3) fine
particle-mediated transport, 4) temperature (and its influence on endogenous DOC production), 5) soil saturation conditions. These conditions were evaluated collecting consecutive fractions of leached samples after variable pre-equilibration times (2, 5, 7, 48 days), using leaching solution with different DOC content (tap water vs. a solution prepared with commercial humic acid), at different temperature (25 ° C vs. 15° C) and in saturated vs.pseudo field capacity conditions. Results indicated that equilibration time determined differences in measured PCB concentrations up to a factor of 8, probably due to the lack of equilibration with the endogenous DOC or differences in DOC quality among fractions. The addition of exogenous DOC incremented mobility (up to a factor of 4) especially for brief contact time (non-equilibrium conditions) and within the Log Kow range 6-7.5. Samples leached at room temperature showed concentrations up to a factor of 9 higher in comparison to samples collected at lower temperature probably because of the different amount of endogenous DOC produced. Samples kept in pseudo field capacity conditions for seven days and then flushed resulted in about double the concentrations of the samples flushed in saturated conditions with a brief contact time, showing that drying-wetting cycles may determine concentration peaks. These trends were not caught by the model predictions as well as the relevance of the transport associated to fine particles, pushing for incorporation of this dynamic in models.
MO224
Assessing the trait-based ecological vulnerability of aquatic invertebrates for phenol
J. Park, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology / School of Earth Science and Environmental Engineering; K. Kim, Gwangju Institute of Science and
Technology; J. Kim, S. Kim, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology / School of Earth Science and Environmental Engineering
Recently, there has been considerable concern about the chemical accidents as usage and manufacture of phenol have increased. Phenol is harmful to living organisms and its exposure can cause ecological and economical damages. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare for possible chemical accident of phenol. The Korean government designated phenol as the accident preparedness substance and required to assess and manage the ecological risk of phenol. This study aimed to find the ecological risk at the scenario that phenol exposed to freshwater bodies in
Korea. In particular, the vulnerability of aquatic invertebrates was explored to consider not only individual organisms also their populations. Vulnerability integrated the exposure, sensitivity, and recovery of the ecosystem by considering various traits (e.g., body length, food preference, toxicological sensitivity, recovery strategy, etc.). The traits were reviewed by published data or open sources, and respective scores were assigned by using multi-criteria analysis which transformed the traits to numerical expression. The toxicological sensitivity was derived by indirect prediction based on traits because enough toxicity data was not possible. The results figured out the vulnerable invertebrates for phenol in Korean freshwater. In addition, the vulnerable species showed that the consideration of only sensitive species would not be great ecological risk assessment and management. This work was supported by Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through "The Chemical Accident Prevention Technology Development Project", funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (No. 2016001970001).
MO225
Assessing and managing food-web effects of Plant Protection Products
K. Swarowsky, German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) / Department IV plant protection products; H. Hötker, Nature And Biodiversity Conservation Union (NABU) Germany / Michael-Otto-Institute; R. Oppermann, Institute for
Agro-ecology and Biodiversity (IFAB); C. Bruehl, University of Koblenz-Landau / Institute for Environmental Sciences; S. Matezki, German Environment Agency UBA; J. Wogram, German Environment Agency UBA / Department IV plant protection products
Assessing impacts on biodiversity needs to integrate indirect effects (trophic chain interactions, also referred to as food-web effects or effects on biodiversity). Plant protection law requires protecting biodiversity and data requirements for Plant Protection Product (PPP) active substances (Regulation EC 283/2013) also acknowledge this aspect by mentioning indirect effects to be considered in the assessment of the impacts on biodiversity. The relevance of indirect effects of PPPs has been well documented and recent scientific opinions of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) confirm the need for their inclusion in the environmental risk assessment of plant protection products. As a first step towards this direction, the currently renewed approval of glyphosate includes an obligation to the EU Member States to assess and manage the risk to diversity and abundance of non-target terrestrial arthropods and vertebrates via trophic interactions in the course of authorization procedures of glyphosate products. Therefore, we consider it necessary to develop an extension of the risk assessment to evaluate the indirect effects of specific PPPs in addition to the standard risk assessment and provide suggestions to risk managers on how to mitigate them. Due to the large variation in food web compositions and spatial and temporal implications, we do not consider it possible to achieve a representative and realistic estimate of indirect effects by means of mechanistic models. Instead, we suggest a simple empirical model to complement current risk assessment. However, implementing a risk assessment scheme for an additional subject of protection would not be feasible without offering solutions on how to manage the assessed risk. Otherwise, an adverse outcome of the assessment would inevitably lead to non-authorisations. To solve this conflict, we put forward an approach to manage risk by means of compensating food web effects. In practice, compensation is established by ecological
compensation areas such as flowering margins, set-asides and beetle banks infield. To make most out of existing types of suitable measures and to enable a maximum of freedom of choice to farmers, we provide a points rationing scheme to categorise the individual measures with regard to their value for supporting in-field biodiversity (and thus to compensate for indirect effects of PPPs).
MO226
Compensating for ecological risks of pesticides
S. Matezki, K. Swarowsky, German Environment Agency UBA; J. Wogram, German Environment Agency UBA / Department IV plant protection products Current environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides overlooks a
considerable part of existing risks and consequently fails to protect the environment from pesticide effects in toto. Examples of such blind spots are risks to
field-dwelling species including wild pollinators, amphibians and farmland birds as well as indirect (food web alternations) or cocktail effects. Although scientifically well described and highly relevant for the achievement of the legally defined environmental protection goals, eliminating these blind spots in the risk regulation has failed so far. The ´indirect effect´-issue is an illustrative example for what we would actually regard as a crisis in environmental risks regulation of PPPs. What we recognize is that progress in ERA notably seems to be hampered for types of risk for which no effective risk mitigation measures are established, so that an assessment of such risks would inevitably lead to non-authorizations. To solve this conflict, we wish to put forward a radically new approach in risk management: Compensating adverse effects of pesticides where established methods of risk mitigation fail to prevent them. Once implemented into the iterative process of risk assessment, such new risk mitigation approaches would allow to manage actual risks more adequately than currently possible, thereby preventing an increase of non-authorizations. It has not escaped our notice that our proposal could also make excessive higher tier assessments dispensable, thereby helping to solve the problem of the increase of complexity in ERA.