Gestión de riesgos financieros 1. Riesgo operacional

Traffic Accidents

According to WHO (2009), globally, more than 1.2 million people lost their lives each year because of traffic accidents on the road. In general, traffic accidents in low-income and middle- income countries are much more critical than those in high-income countries. For instance, the mortality rate caused by traffic accidents per 100,000 inhabitants is 21.5 in low-income countries and 19.5 middle-income countries, compared to 10.3 in high-income countries. Furthermore, although having only 48% of the world’s vehicles, low-income and middle-income countries make up about 90% of the world’s fatalities on roadways.

In Vietnam (2012), there were 10,081 incidents recorded, leading to 9,838 deaths and 7,624 injuries. In one day, on average, there were about 28 accidents which killed 27 persons and injured 21 persons in this country.13 _{According to statistics, most of traffic accidents in Vietnam}

were involved motorcycles, making up about 60 to 70% of the total number of incidents, injuries, and fatalities.

In MDCs, traffic accidents are now becoming a serious concern for both citizens and local authorities. In HCMC (2011), for example, there were 994 incidents recorded, leading to 842 fatalities and 461 injuries [Ho Chi Minh City Fatherland Front Committee (2012)]. The number of accidents was observed to reduce gradually in recent years. However, the mortality rate caused by traffic accidents in both Hanoi and HCMC is still much higher than that in industrialised cities.

Traffic Congestion

In industrialised cities, generally, traffic congestion occurs because of special incidents (e.g. constructional sites, accidents, weather conditions, etc.), or a sudden increase in traffic demand due to special events (e.g. exhibition, sport, or music events).

In MDCs, however, apart from those factors, the high to overloaded traffic demand, lack of control equipment, and non-strict traffic discipline can be additional factors for traffic congestion in these cities. It occurs quite often during peak periods, mostly at intersections (the most critical points in the urban road network) because of their insufficient capacities and potential obstructions.

In Ho Chi Minh City, for instance, there were 54 congestion incidents which lasted for over 30 minutes in 2010 [Ho Chi Minh City Department of Transport (2010)]. In 2012, traffic congestion was observed at 67 and 76 congestion points in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, respectively [Ministry of Transport of Vietnam (2013)]. At present, traffic congestion is one of the most serious traffic problems for these cities.

Traffic congestion has negative impacts on many aspects such as the increased travel time, reduced mobility, waste of fuel consumption, air pollution, health problem, economic loss, etc.

Pollution Caused by Traffic Exhaust Emissions

Since motorised transport normally requires the combustion of fossil fuels to produce energy translated to propulsion, air pollution is a result of that process. It produces various pollutants such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, soot, various gaseous and liquid vapour hydrocarbons, oxides of sulphur and nitrogen, sulphate and nitrate particulates, ash, and lead. Among these pollutants, the most principal ones which impact adversely and critically on human health include lead, various types of particulate matter, ozone, various toxic VOCs14_,

nitrogen dioxide, ammonia, and sulphur dioxide. [Gorham (2002)]

According to WHO (2004b), particulate matter (PM), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)

have adverse effects on both the respiratory system and cardiovascular system. These effects are also related to the short-term and long-term exposure as follows:

• Short-term exposure: lung inflammatory reactions, respiratory symptoms, adverse effects on the cardiovascular system and respiratory symptoms, effects on pulmonary function, increase in medication usage, increase in hospital admissions, and increase in mortality. • Long-term exposure: increase in lower respiratory symptoms, reduction in lung function

especially in infants and children, reduction in lung function development, and reduction in life expectancy.

Although traffic pollutants cause many serious problems for human health, they have not been considered adequately in MDCs, particularly in Hanoi and HCMC.

The report from Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2007) indicates that air quality in most areas of Hanoi and HCMC is being at critical levels. For instance, the annual mean value of PM10 concentration in HCMC (the years 2003–2006) was around 80

µg/m3, compared to Vietnamese limit value of 50 µg/m3, and the suggested value of 20 µg/m3 from the guidance of WHO (2006). Considerably, a value of over 200 µg/m3 was recorded at one measurement station in Hanoi in the years 2003 and 2004. Besides, the one-hour mean value of total suspended particulates (TSP) concentration on roadways was very high, ranging from 310 to 2690 µg/m3 in HCMC (January 2002–June 2007), and about 500 µg/m3 in Hanoi (January 2006–June 2007), compared to Vietnamese limit value of 300 µg/m3. Apart from particulate pollutants, NO2, SO2, and CO concentrations in core areas of these cities were also at

high levels.

Noise Emissions

Noise emissions are also remaining at critical levels in MDCs. For example, noise levels of 90– 100 dB(A) were measured in some streets in Hanoi. In HCMC (2005), noise levels ranging from 66 to 87 dB(A) were recorded in some residential areas, which notably exceeded the limit level of 60 dB(A). [Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (2007)]

The main factors influencing noise emissions mainly include the distance to the place of exposition, road surface type, traffic demand, vehicular conditions, share of heavy vehicles, driving speed, quality of traffic flow, and weather condition [Boltze & Kohoutek (2009)]. In MDCs, the place of exposition, traffic demand, vehicular conditions, quality of traffic flow, and weather conditions can be considered as the most disadvantageous factors causing high levels of noise emissions, compared to those in industrialised cities.

Economic Loss

The economic loss caused by traffic problems in MDCs basically involves the loss of persons and properties due to traffic accidents, increased travel time due to traffic congestion, reduced mobility and economic efficiency, environmental pollution, human health problems caused by environmental degradation, waste of energy for transport, vehicular worn-out problems, etc. In fact, a full-scale estimation of total economic loss due to traffic problems is likely impossible. However, the loss caused by some aspects can be estimated roughly. For example, the loss of road crash injuries is estimated at roughly 1% of gross national product (GNP) for low-income countries [WHO (2004a)], and the loss of traffic congestion is considered from 2 to 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for mega cities of developing countries [JICA, MOT, HCMC-PC. (2004)].