Capítulo 4. Construcción de un instrumento de consulta para identificar los elementos
4.2 El método Delphi
4.2.2 Herramientas estadísticas para el análisis
A statistical profile for the Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK) is given in table 41 on next page. The AJK is located in the North of Pakistan and comprises almost 45% of what was known as State of Jammu and Kashmir before partition in 1947. The fate of Jammu and Kashmir remained undecided at the time of the partition; therefore, it became a disputed territory between India and Pakistan. Both countries have fought several wars over Kashmir and skirmishes and shelling across the line of control in Kashmir has become a regular affair. The UN has posted its observers on both sides of the line of control; however, violations occur regularly. The innocent civilians who come in line of fire are the victims. In 1948, after the first war was fought between Pakistan and India a ceasefire was called in by UN and a line of control was established which vanishes up in the North at Siachen Glacier where the most expensive fight between both countries is still going on at the highest altitude in the world.
The Pakistan side of the Kashmir is known as Azad (free) Jammu and Kashmir. It has an autonomous status as far as its political structure is concerned. It has its own parliament headed by a Prime Minister who is responsible for running the affairs of the state while the President of AJK is the executive head of the State. In 2005, a massive earthquake revealed the vulnerability of the AJK economy. Many villages and towns are completely destroyed as they were located on the fault line. The shelling between India and Pakistan is also an important factor behind lack of investment in tourism and Industry especially in the Neelum valley of AJK and its adjacent areas. The Neelum valley is also known as the Switzerland of Pakistan and has a huge tourism potential.
The Azad Jammu & Kashmir Technical Education and Vocational Training Authority is established through promulgation of Act III of 2007 vide Notification No. Admin/ Accounts/ 315-25 /2007 dated 25th January 2007. There are seven members of the board of which only three are from private sector. The Additional Chief Secretary of AJK is the chairman of the AJK-TEVTA board. The organizational structure of AJK-TEVTA is heavily tilted in favour of public sector while similar organizations in other countries are known to have higher involvement of the private sector.
A detailed organogram is given in figure 22 on next page. It is not clear if there is a monitoring and evaluation framework in place in AJK TEVTA.
The AJK TEVTA envisions strengthening the skill acquisition and development infrastructure in the territory which will help to produce trained and skilled manpower. The ultimate objective of the AJK skill vision is to reduce unemployment, to alleviate poverty and to provide a strong base for sustainable socio economic development. According to AJK TVET vision 2015, it hoped that 50% to 60% of youth will opt out for technical training. For the purpose a total of 32 skill development centres are proposed in several different districts of AJK.
Table 41: Azad Jammu Kashmir
AJK Profile Data year
Official name Azad Jammu Kashmir
Capital Muzaffarabad
Districts/Tehsils/Blocks/Villages 2 Divisions; 8 districts; 19 Sub Divisions; 182 Union Councils; and 1646 villages
2006
Languages Kashmiri, Urdu
Population 3.9 Million 2006-07
Gender Ratio 101.2 Males per 100 Females Calculated from
economic survey 2007-08
Area 13297 Sq Km
Population Density 246 People per Sq Km
Geographical Location 33o– 36oE 73o - 75oN
Religion Muslim (Sunni, Shia)
IMR/MMR 56 per thousand live births; 350 per 100,000 live
births
2006 School Age Population (primary to secondary
level)
0.87 Million 2006
Literacy Rate 56%
Primary Retention Rate Dropout rate primary 65.9%,
Poverty113 A Participatory Poverty Appraisal (PPA) report
titled hope and despair concludes almost 50% population living in poverty in the survey areas where PPA was conducted. India and Pakistan dispute is considered an important factor behind poverty in AJK
2003 Planning and Development Department AJK
Expenditure on Education114 Rs. 367.847 Million 2003-04
Industry Structure Woodwork, furniture, paper, flour, textile, steel works, tyre and rubber, food processing, shoes, Vespa Scooter mfg, cosmetics, plastics, tourism.
AJK website
Source: http://www.ajk.gov.pk/site/index.php
Prior to the establishment of TEVTA, there were seventeen technical and vocational institutions running under the Department of Industries Commerce and Labour. Out of those, eight were located in the earthquake affected areas. In the aftermath of 2005 earthquake 3 were completely destroyed while 4 were partially damaged. A total of 73 vocational institutions were running under the Department of Social Welfare and Women Development. After the earthquake 43 were either destroyed or damaged115. The Vocational Training Institute (VTI) in Muzaffarabad was completely destroyed. Similarly, the Rawalakot VTI which was completely damaged is now operating in tents. The VT Centres in Dirkot and Bagh District were partially damaged and are now being run in
113
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/PAKISTANEXTN/Resources/Poverty-Assessment/361361-
1216396471531/PAK_OPL.pdf
114
Pakistan Education Statistics (2005-06) 115
rented buildings. These VTCs were also functioning as youth centres. As most of the facilities were destroyed in earthquake and people migrated; therefore, less than 100 students were attending TEVT courses in contrast to 500 students before the earthquake. Prior to earthquake the annual intake in VTIs was 15 to 20 per year which has decreased to 7 students per annum. After the formation of AJK-TEVTA through an ordinance all existing technical and vocational training institutions under the Department of Industries Commerce and Labour, the Department of Social Welfare and Women Development, and the Department of Education are brought under the jurisdiction of the the Authority. Only the ‗Dar-ul-Falahs‘ (welfare homes) for widows are still running under the AJK line departments.
Figure 22: AJK TEVTA Organizational Structure
Source: http://www.ajktevta.org/OrgChart.htm
There were some Industrial Training Centres (ITCs) as well (exact number unknown) in AJK prior to earthquake of 2005. The ITCs, Lumnian, Muzaffarabad were completely destroyed while Aathmukam and Neelum valley ITCs are operating with very limited capacity due to the damage to the overall TEVT infrastructure in the State. The Youth Centres in Bagh and Muzaffarabd have also been destroyed in the earthquake.
Table 42: AJK TVET Profile
Institutions Enrolments Teachers
Mal e Femal e Mixe d Tota l Mal e Femal e Tota l GPI Mal e Femal e Tota l GPI ST R Monotechni c 0 0 Polytechnic 1 1 113 15 128 0.1 3 5 5 0.0 0 25.6 Vocational 12 67 20 99 1666 3251 4917 1.9 5 180 245 425 1.3 6 11.6 Total 12 67 21 100 1779 3266 5045 1.8 4 185 245 430 1.3 2 11.7 Source: AEPM Pakistan Education Statistics 2005-06
According to PES 2005-06 there was only one polytechnic institute in AJK and 100 vocational training institutes and centres with a total enrolment of 5045 students (see table 42 above). The GPI of 1.95 in vocational training institutes was in favour of women while in polytechnic a GPI of 0.13 shows limited access to females. The STR of 25.6 in AJK technical institutes is the second worst after Baluchistan as compared to rest of the country and as per international norms. There are no female teachers in the polytechnic; however, in VTIs and VTCs female teachers have a good representation and GPI is found to be 1.36.