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Our outlook is based on the following assumptions:

• Further stabilization of the overall economic environment,

and a return to moderate growth;

• slightly increasing interest rates;

• no interest rate whip, no severe disruptions of the capital

markets.

We foresee no major changes with regard to business mix or profitability contributions, whereas we anticipate that some positive and negative effects observed in 2009 will not recur in 2010. Despite the assumed further stabilization of the overall economy, we anticipate that there will be pres- sure on investment results and that this will be partially offset by better operational performance in the business segments.

Due to the magnitude of mark-to-market valuations in our profit and loss account, a precise prediction of net income for the year 2010 is not possible at this point.

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Allianz Group Annual Report 2009 Group Management Report Outlook 2010

Allianz Group summary

Our 2009 operating profit amounted to € 7.2 billion, and we believe that our 2010 operating profit will be around the same level. Operating profit is sensitive to changes in inter- est rates and foreign exchange rates: A 100 bps increase (decrease) of interest rates will boost (reduce) operating profit by of approximatly € 0.2 billion. A 10 % weakening (strengthening) of the U.S. Dollar versus our planned rate of 1.45 to the Euro has a negative (positive) impact of approxi- matly € 0.2 billion. While operating profit can vary, we ex- pect the variation not to exceed € 0.5 billion, except in case of huge deviations from the assumptions stated here and the segment-specific sensitivities mentioned below.

Property-Casualty insurance

Underwriting prices in Property-Casualty insurance are dependent on market cycles, which vary from country to country. Overall, we expect that gross premiums written will increase only slightly, due to the continuation of the soft cycle and our strict underwriting discipline.

The operating profit from the Property-Casualty segment amounted to € 4.1 billion in 2009, with a combined ratio of 97.4 %. In 2010, we anticipate that the aggregate effect of improvements in pricing, claims management and produc- tivity gains is going to more than compensate for underly- ing claims inflation and a slight decline of investment in- come. We assume that natural catastrophe and other weather-related claims experience will return to normal levels. We expect large claims stemming from natural ca- tastrophes to be around € 900 million. It must be noted however that higher frequencies of weather-related and manmade claims can occur unexpectedly, as was the case for our large operating entities in Germany, France and Italy in 2009. It is important to recognize that investment income for this business is sensitive to interest rate movements, especially at the short end of the yield curve. We expect

operating profit to be in the range € 4.0 billion to € 5.0 billion.

We believe that over the cycle, a combined ratio of 96 % is

possible, and we forecast that our combined ratio for 2010 will improve towards that mark. A 1 %-point change in the combined ratio would have an operating profit impact in 2010 of around € 0.4 billion.

Life/Health insurance

Revenues increased in 2009 by more than € 5 billion to € 50.8 billion, with strong growth in Germany and Italy

being boosted by non-recurring effects. We expect statutory

premiums to reach around € 47 billion in 2010.

Operating profit increased in 2009 by € 1.6 billion to € 2.8 billion, benefiting from catch-up effects such as credit spread narrowing and positive equity markets, worth an estimated € 0.4 billion. The observed level of recovery im- pacts in France and the U.S. may not be repeated in 2010. On the other hand, 2009 with € 0.1 billion gross realized gains net of impairments was below the level seen in a calmer capital market environment, leaving room for im- provement in 2010.

We expect operating profit in our Life/Health business to be

within the range € 2.2 billion to € 2.8 billion. It must be not- ed that market volatility and the level of net harvesting can significantly impact the Life/Health segment results.

Asset Management

Our Asset Management business was a strong outperformer in 2009. Massive net inflows and a strong market return brought our third party assets under management to record levels. Net fee and commission income increased by 25 %, driven by high performance fees, boosted operating profit by more than 50 % to € 1.4 billion.

In 2010 we expect further strong inflows, especially into fixed-income products. However, it should be borne in mind that net fee and commission income, including perfor- mance fees, is highly dependent on market values, invest- ment performance and business mix.

Whilst the very strong development experienced in 2009 is unlikely to be repeated, we expect to deliver another high

operating profit in 2010 in the range € 1.1 billion to € 1.3 billion, subject to inflows, markets, investment perfor-

mance and investor sentiment. The cost-income ratio is

119 Outlook 2010 Group Management Report Allianz Group Annual Report 2009

Corporate and Other and consolidation

In 2009, our Corporate segment made a negative operating profit of slightly more than € 1 billion. Contained in this result was a negative foreign exchange impact of € 0.2 bil- lion, and set-up costs for Allianz Bank of more than € 0.1 billion. Management actions are underway to mitigate the risk of further foreign exchange variances in the Corporate segment, and there will be a significant reduction of bank- ing set-up costs. However, due to the current low interest rate environment and the volatility in the fair value of assets and liabilities, we expect the run rate for Corporate for the year 2010 to be a loss in the range € 0.8 billion to € 1.0 billion, comprised mainly of expenses in the Holding & Treasury function and interest on debt. Consolidation effects at the group level normally reduce operating profit by around € 0.1 billion.

Outlook for 2011 and beyond

We believe that the results and financial position of the Allianz Group will continue to improve in the coming years. However, because of the volatile economic environment, it is not possible to make reliable predictions beyond 2010.

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Earnings Summary

Gross premiums written

Overall, gross premiums written were down by 0.9 % on an internal basis. This development was mainly driven by lower volume from our operations in Germany (down by 3.0 %), France (down by 3.0 %), Italy (down by 8.6 %) and our credit insurance business (down by 17.6 %). The positive price effect amounted to 0.8 %.

On a nominal basis, revenues declined by 2.0 % or € 864 million to € 42,523 million. The main reasons for the decline were the change in our U.S. Crop Insurance Program with a negative effect of € 406 million, an unfavorable foreign currency translation effect of € 316 million and the sale of parts of the Swiss health business. These effects were par- tially compensated by the consolidation of our subsidiary in Turkey from July 2008, with a positive effect of € 246 million.

Gross premiums written by regions as of December 31, 2009 (December 31, 2008) 2) in % France: 9.9 (9.7) Switzerland: 7.4 (6.6) Italy: 10.2 (11.4) Germany: 28.3 (27.5) United Kingdom: 4.7 (5.0) Asia-Pacific and Rest of World: 5.1 (4.6) Spain: 4.9 (5.0) Other Europe: 15.1 (15.3) North and South America: 14.4 (14.9)

1) _{In the following section we comment on the development of our gross premiums}

written on an internal basis, meaning adjusted for foreign currency translation and (de-)consolidation effects in order to provide more comparable information.

2) _{After elimination of transactions between Allianz Group companies in different geo-}

graphic regions and different segments. Gross premiums written from our specialty lines have been allocated to the respective geographic regions.

We analyze our property-casualty internal premium growth according to ‘price’ and ‘volume’-effects. This produces the following combination of clusters:

Cluster 1: Both price and volume effects are negative

Cluster 2: Either price or volume effects are positive

Cluster 3: Both price and volume effects are positive

Gross premiums written – Internal growth rates 3)

in % 2008 over 2007 2009 over 2008 0 (10) (20) 10 20 30 Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Italy United States Allianz Sach France Credit Insurance United Kingdom Spain New Europe Asia-Pacific Australia South America AGCS (1.3) 2.1 (9.0) (10.5) (0.9) (1.2)    (0.9) (2.9) (2.6) (7.3) (9.4) 20.6 14.3 0.0 3.7 5.0 10.0 1.2 3.6 0.9 2.4 11.1 18.3 8.0

3) _{Before elimination of transactions between Allianz Group companies in different geo-}

graphic regions and different segments.