Whilst entering short-term accommodation should not be a condition for assessment or for acceptance onto Housing First, short term housing will need to be provided as an option for rough sleepers, while this process is completed and properties are found. Learning from other areas suggests that this engagement and property finding period can take several months, though we would hope to speed this up with the Local Lettings Agency model. We discuss this further in Chapter 6 under transitional arrangements.
4.14 Estimating demand for the Housing First model in the LCR
There are three elements to estimating the demand for Housing First across the LCR:
• Estimating the current unmet demand for Housing First based on an analysis of Mainstay;
• Estimating the newly-arising demand for Housing First year on year using assumptions built into a recent needs assessment exercise for Liverpool City Council;
• Estimating the proportion of people who would cease to use Housing First over time based on the result of Housing First evaluations to date This enables the estimated demand to be calculated for the number of housing units required for Housing First at any one point.The detailed method used to calculate the
estimated demand for Housing First across the LCR is shown at Appendix 4. Based on the three elements set out above and the detailed method set out in Appendix 4, the estimated demand for Housing First ‘units’ (i.e. capacity) is shown in table 4.1.
Table 4.1. Estimated demand for Housing First 2018-2028 Year No of Units 2018 310 2019 346 2020 410 2021 468 2022 519 2023 543 2024 555 2025 554 2026 538 2027 514 2028 480
Initially the numbers required reflects the significant backlog of need. Over time this dissipates as the numbers of the initial clients decreases, and after the seventh year of the programme the number of units required begins to reduce. However, this projection is dependent on the rest of the system – the prevention activities and the housing-led ofer to those who do not
need the more intensive Housing First support. If these are not functioning well, the demand for Housing First would increase.
4.15 The cost of the proposed Housing First model
The costs associated with Housing First in the LCR are based on the proposed model that has been developed with local stakeholders, as set out above. The key elements of the proposed model that need to be considered in terms of costing are based on the following core components:
• The core Housing First staing team, i.e. the support service, including an allowance for the organisational overhead to support them
• A local lettings agency (LLA) to deliver access to (and potentially management of) the housing
required for Housing First to operate; although it is assumed that the LLA
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The model
will serve a wider cohort than those people supported by Housing First. The other components consist of: • Access to 24/7 on call system with
response service as necessary • Second tier mental health support • Wellbeing support and coaching for
learning and work skills
We have sense tested the likely costs of this model, particularly in relation to staing, with local stakeholders,
including both commissioners and existing providers of housing and support for homeless people in the LCR.
From these, we have projected the overall cost for the proposed Housing First model. Based on the operating model of 20 clients per core staf
team, the projected annual cost (for 20 clients) is £252,141. The assumptions and calculations are shown in full at Appendix 4. This equates to a cost per client per annum of £12,607.
However, if a more personalised model was subsequently introduced, for example as in some other Housing First schemes where clients have access to a ‘personal budget’, this would
potentially be an additional cost if it was not built into the ‘core’ support.
4.16 How will the Housing First service link to the wider Housing- Led system?
In Chapter 3, we discussed the importance of the Housing First system sitting within a wider reformed system, which focuses on the
prevention of homelessness and takes a housing-led response to it wherever possible. If this wider system change does not occur, then Housing First can only have limited and short term success as any capacity freed up in the system will rapidly be filled by others not receiving the appropriate access to independent accommodation. Consistency, clear pathways and good communication between the Housing
First service and the rest of this system will be key to the success of both. In this section, we propose the key components of the linkages between the two.
We have emphasised the importance of the ‘high fidelity’ Housing First model being efectively targeted
at those with the highest needs. However, we recognise that, in
practice, it is not so easy to distinguish this group from everyone else in a clear-cut way: Whilst many of the people in the homelessness system have some degree of issue with mental health, substance use, disability, ofending, etc and that
these needs often interact with each other and typically fluctuate over time. In addition, there are a group of people approaching services with a need for just housing related support and access. The system will need to provide a housing led solution for them to prevent spells of insecure accommodation and rough sleeping which then, typically, lead to the development of other support needs. If the system is to efectively engage,
triage and respond flexibly to the needs of all homeless people, the following will be necessary: • Consistent application of the
Housing First principles: across the system, ie. in Housing Led floating support services, outreach/ Housing Options teams and in emergency accommodation/ triage. Where a timely ofer of housing is seen as
the requirement for anyone whose homelessness cannot be prevented regardless of their level of need for support.
• A shared understanding of how the homelessness systemworks
by all those working in it, but also by relevant statutory and voluntary sector agencies across LCR: this will require the development and implementation of a clear communications strategy. • Minimised and well-managed