Urban population changes between 1947 and 1971 have been analysed using the cluster analysis technique (CLUSTAN) described in section 2.8.1. The statistics used were comparable totals for the 111 urban centres with populations of 950 or more in 1966. Like the rural figures, the urban data for 1947, 1954 and 1961 were obtained by re-aggregating collectors district totals to correspond to the 1966 urban centre boundaries. The results of the cluster analysis are shown in Figure 2.5, while Table 2.7 gives the group means upon which the graphs in Figure 2.5 are based.
Sustained or increasing rates of population growth (group 1) were characteristic only of five towns located on the outskirts of Melbourne in 1966. This linear increase in annual growth rates was related particularly to the suburbanisation process, Involving industry as well as homes, and the attractions of the country and the seaside. All the towns in group 1 more than trebled their populations over the 24 year period. One member of group 1, Mornington-Balcombe, was absorbed by the Melbourne metropolitan area in 1971, and a similar fate awaits other towns near Melbourne which lie in the corridors set aside for metropolitan expansion.
Increasing rates of population growth are characteristic also of Heywood, Mooroopna, Kilmore and Healesville (group 2), though the rates were lower than those for towns in group 1 (Table 2.7). Since all of the
towns in group 2 had small initial populations, small increments have
enabled relatively high growth rates to be achieved. The growth of Heywood (1971 pop. 1,299) as a rural service centre was probably fostered by the expansion of rural export facilities at Portland, 27 kilometres away. The
Johnston, R.J., 'Australian Small Towns in the Post-War Period', Australian Geographer, 1967, 10, pp.215-9.
Smith, R.H.T., 'The Functions of Australian Towns', Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 1965, 56, pp.81-92.
93 U R B A N V I C T O R I A
POPULATION TRENDS
1 9 4 7 -1 9 7 1 O u y e n C o rry O H Q Echuca f • W ongoralta H e o th c o te M t B eouty© © e üe«
B aU orot w e rriD e e . K I L O M E T R E S94
TABLE 2 . 7 Means and S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n s o f U rb a n P o p u l a t i o n C hange G r o u p s , ( a ) Mean R a t e s o f P o p u l a t i o n C hange i n U rb a n C e n t r e s Group f A n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e p e r c e n t 1 9 4 7 - 5 4 1 9 5 4 - 6 1 1 9 6 1 -6 6 1 9 6 6 - 7 1 1 5 1 . 4 5 3 . 8 1 5 . 9 9 1 2 .1 6 2 4 - 1 . 0 8 2 . 5 1 0 . 9 3 5 . 6 0 3 6 1 2 . 7 1 4 . 1 8 1 . 6 6 - 0 . 2 5 4 22 4 . 1 6 2 . 6 9 2 . 3 1 1 .4 6 5 56 1 . 8 9 1 . 0 9 0 . 0 5 - 0 . 5 4 6 6 5 . 4 3 4 . 2 2 2 . 2 3 5 . 3 1 7 3 2 . 2 6 - 1 . 4 3 - 1 . 1 0 1 . 5 2 8 3 - 1 . 1 6 3 . 6 0 5 . 5 9 - 0 . 6 9 9 3 - 3 . 2 3 1 . 8 0 - 0 . 5 4 - 1 . 1 0 U n g ro u p e d 3 T o t a l 111 ( b ) S t a n d a r d D e v i a t i o n s Group f 1 9 4 7 - 5 4 1 9 5 4 - 6 1 1 9 6 1 - 6 6 1 9 6 6 - 7 1 1 5 1 . 5 1 1 . 3 1 2 . 3 0 2 . 1 0 2 4 1 . 8 7 1 . 9 3 0 . 6 1 0 . 8 9 3 6 1 . 5 3 0 . 6 6 1 . 2 3 1 . 6 6 4 22 1 . 2 7 1 . 1 0 1.11 1 . 3 4 5 56 1 . 8 5 1 . 1 0 1 . 2 0 2 . 0 5 6 6 1 . 8 7 0 . 7 3 0 . 2 8 1 . 1 6 7 3 1 . 6 5 0 . 8 1 2 . 6 1 2 . 6 4 8 3 1 . 5 0 0 . 5 2 1 . 5 8 0 . 7 3 9 3 3 . 4 5 3 . 1 5 2 . 0 0 1 . 5 4 N o t e : f = f r e q u e n c y o f c a s e s i n e a c h g r o u p . S o u r c e : C l u s t e r A n a l y s i s (CLUSTAN) o f r e v i s e d u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n t o t a l s . g r o w t h o f M ooroopna (1971 p o p . 3 , 5 3 2 ) h a s b e e n d u e t o i t s c l o s e c o n n e c t i o n s w i t h S h e p p a r t o n , M ooroopna t o o b e i n g a s e r v i c i n g an d p r o c e s s i n g c e n t r e f o r t h e s u r r o u n d i n g o r c h a r d i n g d i s t r i c t s . A l t o g e t h e r , o n l y n i n e V i c t o r i a n to w n s e x p e r i e n c e d i n c r e a s i n g g r o w th r a t e s b e t w e e n 1947 a n d 1 9 7 1 , t h e d o m in a n t t r e n d i n t h e S t a t e b e i n g l i n e a r d e c l i n e . The m o st s p e c t a c u l a r d e c l i n e s i n g r o w th r a t e s t o o k p l a c e i n t h e s i x to w n s b e l o n g i n g t o g r o u p 3 , a l l o f w h i c h had s m a l l p o p u l a t i o n b a s e s i n 1947 a n d s u b s e q u e n t l y u n d e r w e n t v e r y r a p i d g r o w t h o v e r a s h o r t p e r i o d . The c o a l and e l e c t r i c i t y to w n s o f M o e - Y a l l o u r n an d M o rw e ll b e l o n g t o t h i s g r o u p , a s d o e s T r a r a l g o n and t h e s o l d i e r s e t t l e m e n t tow n o f R o b i n v a l e . T h e s e to w n s s t e a d i l y l o s t t h e i r g r o w t h i m p e t u s a s f a c t o r y b u i l d i n g and
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resource development were completed. Moe-Yallourn faces a major population decline in the coming decades as Yallourn is destined to be removed in
order to mine the coal which lies beneath it. Population changes in the hydro-electricity town of M t . Beauty, which remained ungrouped in the cluster analysis because of its high growth rates 1947-54, most closely resembled group 3 towns.
Linear decline in growth rates, but at a less precipitous angle than for group 3, was characteristic of towns in group 4, whose average annual growth rates declined from 4 percent to about 1 percent 1947-71. Included in group 4 were a number of large towns such as Geelong, Shepparton and Warrnambool. For Geelong, and possibly some other large towns, the
reduction in the growth rate was partly a function of the increasing size of the city, a feature which is also illustrated by the rate for Melbourne which was 2.7 percent 1961-66 and 2.5 percent 1966-71. Although different causes are probably responsible for the pattern of change for specific towns in group 4, the slowing of growth might generally be attributed to factors such as the completion of major economic development within towns and their hinterlands, and the maturing of age structures leading to net outward migration of young people to Melbourne and expanding areas in other states.
Towns belonging to group 5 were also characterised on average by a linear decrease in their growth rates, though the rates were lower for each period than they were in group 4, and during the second two intercensal periods the towns of group 5 experienced only zero growth or slight decline (Table 2.7). This pattern of change was the most common trend among Victorian towns, 56 of the 111 towns belonging to group 5. It is emphasised, however, that individual towns had population trends which departed from the group mean (Table 2.7) although not sufficiently to
justify either their inclusion in other groups or the creation of additional groups. Ballarat and Bendigo (group 5) are examples of this, as the annual growth rates for both cities remained near 1 percent 1961-71, thus giving the cities fairly constant growth rates since 1947. Despite departures from the mean, the deceleration of growth remained the most widespread pattern of urban population change in the State. Members of groups 4 and 5 combined account for 70 percent of the total Victorian urban centres. Size and location of settlement have offered little immunity against the main trend as towns of many different sizes have been affected in
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In a number of urban centres a reversal of the downward trend occurred (groups 6 and 7). In towns belonging to group 6, the rate of population change did not fall below 2 percent before the fall was checked and growth accelerated, while in the three towns of group 7, rejuvenation took place after a phase of absolute decline. For urban centres situated near Melbourne and Geelong, such as Dromana-Sorrento, Sunbury (group 6) and Warburton (group 7), rejuvenation might be attributable to the recency of the full impact of suburbanisation,
development being delayed because of the towns' distance from the centres of growth. In some other towns, rejuvenation of population growth seems
to be due to more localised influences such as the expansion of industry in Wodonga, and, in Lakes Entrance, the expansion of tourism and the addition of service functions for the Gippsland oil fields. Thus the revitalised pattern of change appears to have been mainly dependent on proximity to a large city or the acquisition of new urban functions.
New functions, however, do not always have a long life, and the inverted U-shaped patterns (decline-growth-decline) of groups 8 and 9 are due, in one or two cases, to the acquisition and later loss of an urban function. Corryong, for example, (group 8) underwent substantial population growth with the opening of Hume's Pipe Factory, which was established in 1962 to manufacture pipes for the Snowy Mountains Hydro- Electric Scheme. When the Snowy Mountains Scheme neared completion, the factory closed (1969) and Corryong lost about 120 workers and their
families. Rushworth too (group 9) experienced a temporary revival in the 1950s when an immigrant reception centre was opened there and, about the same time, a company was formed to work some of the old gold mining
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leases. Because of the small size of towns in groups 8 and 9, the
establishment and abandonment of a single function has had a very substantial impact on population trends.