The Church of England produces statistics on attendance each year. These statistics are derived from the annual Statistics for Mission returns provided by churches. Using these attendance figures the Church of England reports on the proportion of churches that are
413 Figures on pioneer selection supplied by Canon Phil Potter, Archbishops’ Missioner and Fresh
growing or declining. Growth and decline is measured for all age average weekly attendance and children’s average weekly attendance. The Research and Statistics department provided a list of attendance figures and growth statistics for benefices and parishes to which participants were registered, taken from the 2013 Statistics for Mission.414 From this list further investigation, in conjunction with a church near you online database415 and church websites, made it possible in most cases to match clergy to the statistics even where there were multiple churches and clergy per benefice. In 2013 80% of churches provided a return, with 20% of churches providing no data. The return rate is slightly lower for churches connected to clergy in this study with 77% providing attendance data for all age average weekly attendance. Having identified the churches from which study participants came, it was possible to use the mission statistics to identify which of these churches showed growth or decline, or where the data was inconclusive.
It should be noted that in most cases the clergy in this study have been present in these churches during the time of the 2012 and 2013 returns. However, the growth and decline data compares weekly attendance from 2011 - 2013 figures with figures from 2008 -2010. Whilst it would have been preferable to have been able to measure growth across a period in which the participants were present for the whole three year period, the 2009 cohort were the earliest year still held in archive and the 2014 statistics were not available. Ideally the study could be returned to in the next couple of years, with the addition of 2014 and 2015 statistics. This could offer a clearer picture of clergy outcomes over a longer period and with statistics matching more closely with their arrival at the church.
Those identified as leading growing churches are in churches whose attendance figures have risen significantly in 2011-13 in comparison to 2008-10. Clergy at churches which had increased attendance figures in 2011, before their arrival at the church, will have benefitted from this. However growth will have had to continue over the following two years to remain identified as a church in growth. So, those identified as leading growing churches are responsible for churches with significant increased attendance since their arrival (whether or not the increase began before this). Likewise, those identified as leading declining churches
414 Statistics for Mission 2013.
are in churches whose attendance has declined significantly in 2011-13, in comparison to 2008-10. They are leading churches with decreasing numbers in attendance, whether this decrease began before or after their arrival.
Those listed as inconclusive have churches in which attendance figures are neither increasing nor decreasing enough to suggest either growth or decline over this period. This could be read as churches which are remaining steady. However, in some cases clergy may have inherited churches with decreasing numbers in 2011 before their arrival, which have increased attendance figures in 2012 and 2013. If levels of growth are not significant as to be identified as growing these will be listed as inconclusive. Likewise, clergy could have arrived at a church with growing attendance in 2011, and in the following two years seen declining attendance. The church may be listed as inconclusive if growth from 2011 counters some of the decline seen in the following two years, showing overall inconclusive evidence for either growth or decline. As such, the identification of churches as clearly growing or declining provides a clearer picture than churches identified as inconclusive. Owing to this uncertainty over the churches identified as inconclusive, a decision was taken to select only those clergy for interview who were leading churches identified as growing or declining.
Each church connected to clergy within the study, was listed as growing, declining or inconclusive for all age, and for children only. To move from this to identifying clergy as leading growing or declining churches was somewhat problematic. Where clergy led one church, identification was straight forward, as that church’s designation could be simply connected to that participant. However, out of the forty seven participants, only twenty two were ministering in one church, with the other twenty five responsible for between two and seven churches. Leading multiple churches is not comparable to leading one church and so suggesting that all churches must be growing for clergy to be placed in the growing category is unreasonable and would be likely to skew the research towards clergy responsible for only one church. However, it was important to capture data at interview from clergy who were leading multiple churches and seeing growth at one or more of them. As such, a realistic approach to growth has been taken.
Clergy were defined as leading growing churches if they are leading one or more churches that are growing, in either all age weekly attendance or child only weekly attendance. Clergy leading churches which all show inconclusive evidence for both all age and child only attendance are defined as leading churches with inconclusive evidence for growth or decline. Clergy are listed as leading declining churches if they are leading one or more churches in decline amongst either all age or children and no growing churches. Where clergy are running multiple churches, statistics were often absent for a number of those churches. Where this happens the churches where attendance data is provided are used. Having assigned clergy to the categories of growing, declining or inconclusive, these designations were verified by an independent marker, a fellow DThM student working in a similar field. Whilst this process showed the same designation for forty five participants there were queries over two participants (44, 48) who were responsible for multiple churches in rural areas with a mix of growing, declining and inconclusive. I was more generous assigning these as growing, whereas the second marker assigned these as inconclusive. The similarity between my assessment and that of the second marker for the majority of participants confirmed the assessment. I decided, however, to take the more generous approach in these two particular cases. This decision was influenced by the difficulties associated with rural ministry, where clergy cover large areas ministering in multiple churches, and where some churches with low and declining attendance figures are allowed to decline over time with the expectation that they will be closed in future. Figure 4.6 shows how many clergy were designated as leading churches growing, declining, or remaining steady across all ages and with children.
Ten participants were experiencing neither growth nor decline in both all age and child only attendance across all the churches they are responsible for. Nine participants were leading churches experiencing decline in both all age and child attendance in at least one church and no growth in any churches. Five were experiencing growth in both all age and child attendance in at least one church. Eleven were experiencing growth in at least one church for either all age or child only statistics, and five were experiencing decline in at least one church for either all age or child only and no growth in any. Two participants are assigned growth in one category and decline in the other (13, 14).
Figure 4.6: Frequency of clergy leading growing and declining churches
All age statistics Children only statistics Number of clergy
Inconclusive Inconclusive 10
Declining Declining 9
Growing Growing 5
Growing Inconclusive 5
Inconclusive Growing 4
Growing Data not available 2
Declining Inconclusive 3
Inconclusive Declining 2
Growing Declining 1
Declining Growing 1