What does shortage mean? The basic definition of water shortage – a lack of water – neither includes any explanation of its causes nor qualifies its scope over time and space. For an assessment of needs, water shortage must be qualified in order to distinguish chronic overall shortage from momentary localized shortage. In the wider development debate that routinely focuses on the state of vital resources, shortage
235 The second Gulf War, following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, in 1990/1991, was widely considered
to herald a new era of conflict. One characteristic element would be the aggressive competition for control over natural resources, especially water. In the wake of the Persian Gulf crisis, proponents of a water war theory have identified trouble spots where armed conflict over water was likely, threatening to merge with other conflicts, particularly over disputed territory, finally escalating to a regional confrontation; cf. Joyce Starr: Water wars; Foreign Policy 1/1991; Thomas Homer-Dixon: On the threshold: environmental changes as causes of acute conflict; International security, vol. 16, no. 2, 1991; Arnold Hottinger: Wasser als Konfliktstoff; Europa-Archiv 6/1992 (Water as a source of conflict; in German). For an overview of the water-and-development debate see Sandra Postel: Pillar of sand: can the irrigation miracle last? New York: W. W. Norton, 1999, and Christian Schütze: Umweltprobleme: Klima – Wasser – Land (Environmental problems: climate – water – soil; in German), in: Peter Opitz, ed.: Weltprobleme; Bonn: Bundeszentrale für Politische Bildung, 1995.
tends to suggest a crisis-prone situation.236 However, a shortage of food, for example, is not automatically followed by famine. Assessing the availability of a critical commodity in a whole country represents a formidable challenge because – especially in the case of water – the actual supply of the commodity in a given location at a given time is difficult to measure. As supplies as well as consumption may differ significantly in diverse places and at different times, they cannot be extrapolated to the country-wide situation. In a country like Pakistan, even within one province the water supply differs markedly. Local water shortage exists next to water sufficiency, as is the case in Punjab, pointing at the distribution of water, rather than the availability as such. In this case, water transfers can, at least hypothetically, avert water shortages, as will be seen in the analytical section.
The condition of water shortage has been approached analytically using diverse measures to assess water needs and supplies. While some approaches rely on a minimal-needs concept based on statistical average quantities, others stress aspects of quality in the water supply and use system. A differentiated estimate of water needs has proven very difficult to arrive at because of the multitude of water uses in all sectors of society, each requiring specific amounts of water, subject to dynamic patterns over time as modes of utilization change, thus affecting water consumption. Assessments would also have to be country-specific due to the particular conditions of water use, the status of water productivity, and the available sources of usable water. Water shortage, as result, is not a narrowly defined term, but a rough mathematical calculation of demand versus supplies, rendering a vague description of a relative lack of water under given circumstances.
The per capita water availability is one common denominator of water shortage. This quantitative approach is derived from estimated average human needs and projected against the respective water availability in a given country. According to a World Health Organization (WHO) standard, an amount of 1,000 cm³ or 2,740 litres of internal renewable water resources marks the critical limit on a per capita, per annum basis.237 Countries that fall below that line are classified as water scarce. This method serves as an indicator, not a precise instrument to measure a country’s resources. Average water demand and consumption differs according to climate,
236 A critical and sobering look at the treatment of food shortage in the case of Cambodia in the 1980s
taken by William Shawcross demonstrates how widely perceptions can differ: What seemed to be a clear case of near famine turned out to be a gross misinterpretation of realities, though in many places and at certain times people did suffer from a dramatic lack of food. See his book: The quality of mercy, New York: Simon and Schuster, 1984, ch. 18. Assessing shortage, as Shawcross makes clear, is a difficult task. Even in a poor country like Cambodia then, many people did in fact not suffer from food deficiency while others were dependent on food aid.
Another aspect related to defining water shortage is the understanding of drought as a climatic phenomenon. Similarly disputed among academics, drought should be understood within the context of a particular region, as Asad Qureshi and Mujeeb Akhtar caution; see: Analysis of drought coping strategies in Baluchistan and Sindh provinces of Pakistan; Working Paper no. 86; Colombo: IWMI, 2004, p. 7.
237 WHO: World Health Report: Life in the 21st century. Geneva: WHO, 1998. According to a report
compiled by leading NGOs, the minimum daily household requirement is 50 litres per person, but the added water requirement to allow a diet of 3,000 kcal per day amounts to 3,500 l/day; see: Let it reign: The New Water Paradigm for Global Food Security. Final Report to CSD-13; Stockholm: Stockholm International Water Institute, 2005, cited in Malin Falkenmark: Towards hydrosolidarity: Ample opportunities for human ingenuity; Stockholm: SIWI, 2005; www.siwi.org.
physical activity, age, culture and other factors.238 The overall water demand of a society and its economy is not within the reach of this method.
Internal renewable water resources include groundwater and river water.239 The global map of water availability roughly resembles that of precipitation patterns, pointing at a dry belt comprising northern Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, central China and Australia.240 A shortfall of this one-dimensional measurement is that it ignores water quality. Quality aspects are important because they affect the actual usability of water: While drinking water demands rank highest, for some industrial water uses, like water-cooled power generators, low-quality water is sufficient.
Rainfall assessments are based on a solid database of recorded precipitation covering several decades. The actual availability of recorded rainfall, however, hinges on other climatic factors, like monthly and local variations which affect specified water uses in agriculture. Pakistan is grouped into a low category of under 350 mm of rain water annually, alongside countries on the Arab peninsula and in the Sahara region.241 The actual availability of rainfall in these countries, however, is dependent on facilities to harness rainwater. In the case of Pakistan, an extensive irrigation network allows for effectively utilizing rainfall; the peripheral agricultural systems of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf nations offer little potential.
Water consumption and water productivity by global comparison differs sharply. While overall water availability in the Middle East is very low, countries like Israel have increased water productivity through highly efficient drip-irrigation systems thus reducing the overall water demand. Living standards in some North American and European countries have led to high demands for water, through an overall change in consumer mentality, effectively offsetting the benefits from sophisticated water technology.242 Hidden water uses, like in the form of industrial products that require
high quantities of water (automobiles), push overall water demands.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) has issued the Water Dependency Ratio, indicating amounts of total renewable water resources originating outside a given country.243 This method points at the interdependency of nations regarding water supplies. For Pakistan, the ration is 76%, i.e. this country to a significant degree depends on water supplies that are not completely within its own political control. The background of this finding is simple: it means that the sources of the main rivers of the Indus system lie in India and, to a lesser degree, in
238 Falkenmark and Widstrand estimate the minimal per capita water needs to be around 100 litres per
day (for household consumption): Malin Falkenmark & Carl Widstrand: Population and water resources: a delicate balance; Population Bulletin, vol. 47, no. 3, 1992.
239 See World Resources Institute (WRI, Washington D.C.): World Resources 1996-1997, and 2002-
2004. World Resources provides one of the most comprehensive records of available data, compiled mainly from FAO and related UN institutions. The accuracy of the given data, however, depends on individual measurements employed by national authorities. The given data is not based on standardized measurements.
240 See FAO: Review of water resources by country (2003), based on Aquastat data (FAO):
www.fao.org.
241 See, among other sources, FAO review of water resources by country (2003), ibidem. The amount
of water lost due to evaporation allows only a rough estimate; see Atlas of World Water Balance, Paris: UNESCO, 1977.
242 Sandra Postel: Die letzte Oase. Frankfurt: Fischer, 1993 (Last oasis; German ed.); Sandra Postel
and Aaron Wolf: Dehydrating conflict; Foreign Policy 3/2002.
Afghanistan. This does not translate into potential conflict, though, as most of the world’s rivers cross at least one international boundary. Only island nations, like Sri Lanka or Brunei, or very large territorial entities, like Mongolia and China, have low ratios.
The Water Poverty Index (WPI), developed at the Centre of Hydrology and Ecology, allows a more comprehensive, multi-dimensional assessment of a country’s water situation, including its developmental profile.244 Based on an analysis in five categories – resources and population; access to water; capacity (economic profile); use (consumption); environment (water quality, ecology) – the WPI renders a different picture: the highest scoring is awarded for a mix of abundant water supplies and favourable administrative and economic conditions.245 While the inclusion of
development-related aspects like infant mortality rates, pointing at water quality management, highlights the potential results of water shortage, it risks diverting attention from more fundamental questions of water availability. It may be less useful to indicate existing or imminent water shortages, yet it can serve as a profound basis for progressive water management.
Falkenmark and Lindqvist have developed a concept of five categories of water scarcity to explain water shortage.246 Advocating an ecological perspective, the authors generally define scarcity as a condition of insufficiency of water in usable condition in relation to demand for plant production and/or human activities. An amount of 1,700 m³ of water per person per year is seen as a critical bottom line of water availability.247 Water needs for all forms of utilization and all eco-systems are taken into account:
- 1) scarcity regarding plant production: insufficient rainfall and (over)dependence on irrigation;
- 2) demographic water scarcity: inadequate water demand due to rising populations;
- 3) technical water scarcity: water scarcity cannot be stemmed by (further) water resource development;
- 4) induced in-stream water scarcity: (over)withdrawals of water can lead to ecosystem failures (e. g. collapsing reproduction in fish);
- 5) use scarcity: low-quality water sources limit the utilization of available water. This concept supplements the minimal-needs approach on which some of the UN- sponsored concepts are based with a systemic approach that includes agricultural and industrial water utilization and ecosystem needs, to arrive at a comprehensive instrument for assessing the water supply-demand situation in different regions. Their water management is to be oriented towards a long-term balance between demand and availability based on their specific water utilization and water generation patterns.
244 See Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford: www.nwl.ac.uk/research/WPI/ (January 2003). 245 Australia, for instance, assumes a high rank in spite of being a very dry country threatened by
chronic water shortage; Brazil and Cambodia, countries of abundant water sources, score low because of infrastructural and economic deficits. This result is due to factors that do not directly relate to water, yet weigh in significantly, affecting the overall scoring.
246 Malin Falkenmark and Jan Lundqvist: Towards water security: political determination and human
adaptation crucial; Water Resources Journal, September 1998, p. 12, 14-15.
247 World Water Council: Water vision; London: Earthscan, 2000, chapter 3;
www.worldwatercoundil.org. See also the bi-annual World Water Forum, hosted by the World Water Council, a UN-affiliated body.
A concept of five Water Predicament Clusters is presented:
- A) The “close to the ceiling” group: countries in which demand is about to outgrow supplies, requiring a shift from food self-sufficiency to food imports in order to avert water shortages (South Asia, northern Africa, Middle East);
- B) The group with very high per-capita water use: progressive water resources development has led to high productivity and high over-all demand, now requiring greater efficiency and water saving (Central Asia, U.S.);
- C) The intermediate group: sufficient water supplies and efficient water utilization, plus moderate increases due to fairly stable demographic development (Western Europe, Southeast Asia, Northern China, Mongolia);
- D) The arid, water-short group: infrastructure shortcomings inhibit access to water; higher water productivity and efficiency needed to counter rising population (Eastern, Western and Southern Africa);
- E) The water-rich group: water demand is below water availability, yet ecosystems face deterioration due to water pollution (Scandinavia, Canada, Central Africa, most of South America).
The importance of this concept lies in the linking of water utilization patterns to hydrological characteristics of a given region.248 Large parts of the United States, for example, face a technical water scarcity due to high levels of water withdrawals, coupled with high water productivity. The potential to further develop existing water resources is limited, thus water shortage can occur, yet without posing a fundamental threat. In this case, rather than expanding water-intensive economic activities, importing those very same commodities from countries or regions with lower over-all water withdrawals may be needed to avert scarcity. For a region like southern Africa, the arid climate might force water managers to intensify agricultural production towards greater water productivity because sharp rises in demand due to demographic dynamics will lead to water shortages.
In South Asia, for example, the inter-sectoral competition over water resources – hydropower versus agriculture – reflects the region’s challenge to improve water sharing because demand is rising in all sectors due to dramatic population growth. This dilemma, in principle, is behind Pakistan’s problems of water sharing, too. For these countries, a possible way out of this dilemma is to increase food imports in order to save water. This strategy would require balancing the increased expenses with income generated from exports that do not involve high water consumption. From an economic perspective, this means to effectively price water in a more consequential manner than before. This way the value of water would be reflected by the financial resources invested in preserving it or in raising its efficiency, e.g. through higher crop-per-drop ratios, or by the money saved due to a positive balance of trade.