Research has shown that those who identify with the political right hold more unfavourable views towards immigrants than those on the left (Espenshade & Hempstead, 1996; Hainmueller & Hopkins, 2014; Rustenbach, 2010). Table 6.1, p. 138, shows correlations between party identification and attitudes towards the effects of immigration using an AES survey question that asks respondents which political party they identify with.
During the period 2001 to 2013, the AES modified its main response categories to the question concerning political identification. In 2001, respondents were asked if they identified with the Liberal Party, Australian Labor Party, National
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Party of Australia, Australian Democrats, Australian Greens, One Nation Party, other, or no party. However, by 2007, the Democrats and the One Nation Party had ceased to function and were no longer included in the AES question about party identification2.
Across the period, the percentage of individuals who identified with either the Liberal or Labor parties and held unfavourable views towards the effects of immigration were mostly similar, and the changes in percentages reflect the general change in attitudes towards immigration over time. In fact, the percentage of
respondents who held unfavourable views towards the effects of immigration is sometimes higher among supporters of the Labor Party, and sometimes higher among supporters of the Liberal Party. Bigger differences between parties, however, can be observed by comparing the other parties with the two main parties. On the political spectrum, the Nationals are more conservative than the Liberal Party, and the percentage of respondents who held unfavourable views is higher.
Unsurprisingly, those who identified with the right-wing, anti-immigration One Nation Party held very unfavourable views, though the sample size (especially in 2004) was extremely small.
Sample sizes for “other” party were also quite small, but increased in size during the period. Notably, in 2013, when the sample size was largest, a significant portion of respondents held unfavourable views towards the effects of immigration; by percentage of respondents per party, only the Nationals had more unfavourable views. Additionally, this analysis, while showing statistical correlations between
2 The Democrats and the One Nation Party will be considered in the bivariate analysis; however, owing to the small number of respondents who identified with these parties in 2001 and 2004, and that these parties ceased to be included in the AES from 2007, they have been added to the ‘other’ category in the multivariate analysis.
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party identification and views towards the effects of immigration, also reveals the diversity of views among those who identify with the parties. For example, in 2013, a small percentage of those who identify with the Greens (which is a left-wing party) held unfavourable attitudes towards immigrants. This finding captures the diverse views among Greens supporters concerning immigration, and reflects the complex policy positions of the party itself. The Australian Greens policy position on immigration generally promotes ecological sustainability at the expense of population growth (Greens, 2015b), yet, at the same time, it supports Australia's multiculturalism, and skilled migration programs so long as they do not undermine wages (Greens, 2015a). The balance between these potentially conflicting goals is unclear. However, at a state election in 2014, the South Australian Greens allocated their preferences to the Stop Population Growth Now party. At the time, Greens politician and member of the Legislative Council (upper house) in the South
Australian Parliament, Mark Parnell, said “We don’t want more people, we want to stabilise the population”(Owen, 2014), which suggests that at least some leaders in the party oppose immigration.
There are also disparate views expressed by those who identify with the Labor Party: the percentage of those who hold unfavourable views is reasonably consistent throughout the period, which suggests there is a group within Labor that harbours unfavourable attitudes towards immigrants. It may be the case that these different views capture internal factional divisions within the party, though without empirical evidence it is not possible to confirm this assertion.
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Table 6.1 Bivariate analysis of unfavourable views towards the effects of immigration by party identification, AES 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013
Unfavourable view of effects of immigration
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 % (n) % (n) % (n) % (n) % (n) Liberals 18.1 129 16.5 114 13.7 89 24.8 183 23.5 311 Labor 20.4 137 16.2 86 17.6 117 21.1 163 18.1 242 Nationals 21.7 15 20.8 11 25.4 16 40.9 27 30.7 43 Democrats 7.8 4 9.1 1 --- --- --- --- --- --- Greens 15.1 8 2.4 2 6.1 6 6.6 8 4.2 10 One Nation 58.7 27 22.2 2 --- --- --- --- --- --- Other 8.3 1 18.8 3 22.6 7 30.5 18 25.7 38 No Party 19.6 56 14.1 38 15.6 43 20.2 57 18.4 118 Total N 1903 1662 1780 2040 3828 Chi-square χ²=51.80*** df =7 χ²=14.12* df =7 χ²=16.32** df =7 χ²=36.56*** df =5 χ²=64.18*** df =5
Data source: AES 2001 (Bean et al., 2004); AES 2004 (Bean et al., 2005); (W) AES 2010
(McAllister et al., 2011); (W) AES 2013 (Bean et al., 2014a). Notes: For the purposes of establishing a simple statistical relationship between the variables, and to provide a table than can be referred to in the following chapter where a categorical variable is the focus, in this analysis the scale variable ‘effects of immigration on society’ was recoded into a binary variable, where a numerical value of less than 2.5, on the scale of 1 to 5, was construed to be an unfavourable view of the effects of immigration; * statistically significant at p ≤ .05, **p ≤ .01, ***p ≤ .001.
The analysis reveals little separation between Liberal and Labor party supporters. More contrast can be seen between the conservative Nationals, major parties, and left-leaning Greens (especially in the latter AES datasets when the sample size was increased). Clearly the expectation that respondents who identify with right-leaning parties will have unfavourable attitudes towards immigrants (in this case towards the effects of immigration on society) is partly confirmed by the large percentage of respondents who hold unfavourable attitudes and identify with One Nation (during the early part of period) and the Nationals. However, given the likelihood that other factors also hold important relationships with the dependent variables concerning attitudes towards the effects of immigration, government immigration policy, and support for immigrants, it is essential to control for other
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factors using multivariate analysis for each of the three dependent variables: attitudes towards immigration policy, attitudes towards the effects of immigration, and
attitudes towards support for immigrants.