PREGUNTAS FRECUENTES PARA LA PLANIFICACIÓN Y PROGRAMACIÓN EN RED

Choosing the best risk management option is the risk manager’s next deci- sion. This should be done only after taking the relevance of the remaining

TABLE 3.3

Consolidated SMART Ratings for Three Risk Management Options Risk Management Option Option Score RMO 1 .409 RMO 2 .473 RMO 3 .518 FIGURE 3.10

Contribution of Options to Decision Criteria

0.6

Contributions to Choice Best RMO from Level: Level 2

0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 RMO 1 RMO 2 RMO 3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Costs Jobs Benefits Illnesses reduced

key uncertainties to the risk manager’s options into account. Did uncertainty prevent assessors and others from providing risk managers with the infor- mation they needed to make a decision? Did uncertainty prevent assessors from estimating the risk or did it severely limit their confidence in the risk estimates? Does the uncertainty mean the efficacy of the different risk man- agement options is in doubt?

If the uncertainty, for any reason, is significant enough to affect the nature of the answers to the risk manager’s questions or to affect the choice of a course of action, risk managers must intentionally address that cir- cumstance. That might be done through additional research, an additional iteration of the risk assessment, decisions phased to take advantage of the gradual resolution of key uncertainties, or an adaptive management approach to risk management.

The risk manager’s role in the evaluation and comparison tasks is likely to be somewhat limited. Making a decision based on the work done in these steps will usually be the risk manager’s responsibility. In some decision

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT

Adaptive management is a risk management strategy that is useful when significant uncertainties can be expressed as testable risk hypoth- eses. Although there are many definitions, it usually consists of a series of steps that include the following:

• Identify known uncertainties at the time a decision is made • Include experiments that can be used to test hypotheses about

the known uncertainties among the design features in the RMO • Measure and monitor the results of the experiments to test the

identified hypotheses

• Modify predictive models based on what is learned

• Use the revised models to identify adjustments to the RMO actions over time to increase the likelihood that management objectives will be attained

Adaptive management refers to actions that are taken to learn about and manage the risks of interest. The U.S. Department of the Interior’s “Technical Guide to Adaptive Management” is an excellent online resource (U.S. Department of Interior 2009).

contexts, the ultimate decision makers may be elected leaders or other person- nel removed from or above the risk analysis process. Even in these instances, however, it is usual for risk managers to make a recommendation based on their experience and intimate knowledge of the problem.

Risk management as described in this chapter is, in one sense, an iterative screening process based on scientific and other criteria. Making a decision, specifically selecting a recommended RMO, is the final screening activity for a given risk management activity. It is in the risk control activities that the risk manager’s job shifts from the normative role of describing the world as it ought to be to taking action, which is the policy dimension of the risk manager’s job.

It is not unusual for some organizations to rely on default decision rules. For example, some businesses will choose the option with the minimum payback period. Doing nothing is sometimes the default action for an orga- nization, especially one affected by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)—a safeguard that attempts to ensure that any action taken is prefer- able to taking no action at all.

The manner in which decisions are made cannot be fairly generalized; they will vary from organization to organization, and even within an organization they may vary from situation to situation. Good decisions are strategic; they meet objectives, avoid constraints, solve problems, and attain opportunities.

DECISION MAKING FOR OPPORTUNITY RISKS

The concepts of acceptable and tolerable risk differ between pure and opportunity risks. When we consider these terms from the perspective of an opportunity risk, an acceptable risk is one with a negligible prob- ability of a negative outcome or with positive consequences so large that it offsets the chance of a negative outcome. Alternatively, the negative consequences may be so slight that individuals or groups in society are willing to take or be subjected to the risk. Investing in a project that has zero chance of negative net environmental benefits would be an acceptable risk.

A tolerable opportunity risk is one that is not acceptable. Risk tak- ing is essentially different from risk avoiding. Risk-taking decisions are conscious decisions to expose one’s self to a risk that could have other- wise been avoided. Consequently, managing uncertainty prior to deci- sion making or during evolutionary decision making is a significant risk management strategy for opportunity risks.

Selecting an RMO is, to the extent the RMO establishes a residual risk level, equivalent to choosing a TLR, although there may be instances where a TLR is determined first and then RMOs are formulated to attain that specific level of risk. The same decision rules reviewed previously may be used for this task. No matter which way it is handled, the process and the decision itself should be documented.