Dificultades en la Comprensión Lectora

Almost fifteen years after the US invasion in Afghanistan, with incredible amounts of blood and treasure sacrificed by the Afghan people and the international community, Afghanistan is still fragile state. The conflict in Afghanistan is not only continuing, but is also becoming more complex, with insecurity and instability increasing day by day. This makes a Taliban come-back a very realistic future scenario. The continuation of the Afghan conflict is to a certain extent ironic when considering the involvement of more than 60 organizations and countries, and their contribution to peace- and state-building. Given this puzzling situation, this research aimed to obtain a better understanding of the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan. More specifically, the above analysis sought to explore the different dynamics that sustain the post-2001 conflict in Afghanistan.

In identifying the different dynamics that sustain the conflict, I have chosen for a multi-level conflict analysis approach. This approach is especially chosen given the complex nature of the conflict in Afghanistan, with many different actors involved. Furthermore, this approach is beneficial for this study given the different dimensions of the conflict, which includes a national dimension, a regional dimension, and an international dimension. This multi-level lens allows me indicate the different dynamics on different levels that sustain the conflict, and their causal mechanisms. The Afghan conflict is multi-facet and multi-layered and many dynamics are interconnected. For this reason, there is not one single explanation for the continuation of the conflict, but the interconnectedness of the different dynamics on different levels.

To investigate the different dynamics that prevent the conflict to end, I have developed several indicators. The national indicators chosen for this research are specific to Afghanistan’s domestic situation, and include the existence of insurgent groups, the socio-economic situation, ethnic/tribal rivalry and practices, and good governance. These indicators are chosen based on extensive literature research on the main causes for the existence of conflicts. In addition to these national dynamics, there is wide range of body written on Afghanistan’s regional complexities. I have chosen to analyze this dimension to see to what extent Afghanistan’s geographical location between three major regions (Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia) contributes to the continuation of the conflict. I have also taken into account the role of important regional players

81 Ellaha Abassi – MSc Crisis and Security Management Public Administration – Leiden University Campus The Hague Russia and China, as they have a significant influence in the region. The last dimension then, is the international dimension. It is often argued that many peace-building projects in post-war countries are doomed to failure based on their design. I have chosen to analyze the role and influence of the international community since the fall of the Taliban, focused on the extent of cooperation among the different actors involved, aid regulations, and how these factors have influenced the course of the conflict.

Findings on the national level imply that all the different indicators reinforce one another and subsequently lead to the continuation of the conflict. Afghanistan’s insurgency is very heterogeneous and consist of different groups, with the Taliban being the biggest threat to the security. With the death of Taliban’s leader Mullah Omar, the Taliban is very likely to become more fragmented and lose fighters to ISIS Khorasan, who is gaining more momentum in Afghanistan. In addition, Mullah Omar’s death has consequences for the reconciliation process between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Analysis of the socio-economic conditions of the country illustrate the acute difficulties and challenges Afghanistan is facing. Afghanistan belongs to one of the least developed countries in the world, with millions living in immense poverty, with low literacy rates, high infant mortality rates, and looming economic prospects. The lack of job prospects has caused many young educated Afghans to leave their country and seek refuge in Europe, which leads to brain-drain.

The third national indicator is ethnic or tribal rivalries and their influence on the conflict. While ethnicity and tribal affiliation have decreased significantly over the past years due to war and migration, Afghan politicians remain constrained by the exertion of influence by the long- standing informal power structure. This limits accountability, transparency and legitimacy of the central government, and contributes to the continuation of the conflict. The last and fourth indicator shows that Afghanistan’s governing structure historically has consisted of a very weak central government, that did not have the capacity to enforce its policies on the entire Afghan population, especially those living the rural areas (as they looked to their tribal or faction leaders for governance). The current situation in Afghanistan is at the moment, unfortunately, relatively the same. Afghanistan has a weak central government, its authority, legitimacy, and capacity are

82 Ellaha Abassi – MSc Crisis and Security Management Public Administration – Leiden University Campus The Hague limited. Institutions have been built over the years, but they lack qualified personnel and suffer from high-level and low-level of corruption.

Findings from regional level illustrate the extremely complex region in which Afghanistan is located. While each specific country has its difficulties in its specific region, the system becomes more complex as these regions (South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East) overlap in Afghanistan. This includes the rivalry between Pakistan and India, between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the mistrust amongst the different Central Asian states. The overlap is the rivalry between Pakistan and Iran for example, while Iran has close ties with India and Pakistan with Saudi Arabia. With the involvement of China and Russia, and US presence in Afghanistan, the regional security dynamic has become more complex. The path of Afghanistan’s future heavily depends on its neighboring states. Cooperation would mean moving towards stabilization and it would be a boost for the economy, but unfortunately, this is a very unrealistic option in the short-term. Findings from the international level demonstrate how the involvement of the international community, and specially the US, has led to a country that is aid-dependent, and its government lacks legitimacy. While the international troops have significantly decreased in numbers and presence, their influence is still visible in the country. In addition, mistakes from the past haunt Afghanistan today. The program was focused on short-term stability instead of long-term goals. In general, the post-war reconstruction program in Afghanistan was very much simplified. The complex environment of Afghanistan was not taken into consideration, but instead was built on earlier practices of post-war reconstruction in different countries around the globe. This has caused many flaws, frustration and its consequences (e.g. aid dependency, missed opportunity to negotiate with the Taliban in 2001) are one of the major factors that sustain the conflict and prevent it from being ended.

In sum, the different levels mentioned are all interconnected and all dynamics within these levels are factors that sustain the conflict. Within and between the levels, the different mechanisms strengthen one another. As an example, the insurgency in Afghanistan is to a large extent caused by the regional rivalry between India and Pakistan, but also sustained by the poor socio- economic situation in Afghanistan. Another example is the lack of good governance and lack of

83 Ellaha Abassi – MSc Crisis and Security Management Public Administration – Leiden University Campus The Hague government capacity, which is caused by the existence of insurgency, by traditional tribal and ethnic customs, and by the flaws of international involvement over the years. Many other links can of course be drawn between these different factors as shown in figure 4 below. The combination of these different dynamics and their causal links are main factors that sustain the conflict, and prevent it from being ended.

Fig. 4: Factors that sustain the conflict and their causal links

Regrettably, this paper suffers from a number of limitations. First, this research is primarily based on secondary literature. A more profound understanding of the subject would require

Conflict Regional National International Bad Governance Insurgency Ethnic/tribal/ practice of informal law Socio- economic status South- Asia Middle -East Russia & China Central -Asia Exclusion Bonn Conference/ western / simplification Aid- dependency / rentier state

84 Ellaha Abassi – MSc Crisis and Security Management Public Administration – Leiden University Campus The Hague interviews with scholars, experts or policy makers in the field to grasp the complexities better. Furthermore, process tracing requires enormous amounts of information, and its conclusions may be weakened when not enough information is accessible. It can be very well that some relations are not causal, but they do appear to be so due to lack of sufficient data or underspecified theories. With regard to external validity, or the ability to make generalizations, this is hardly impossible in this research. The findings in this single case study with identifying the causal links between the different dynamics is only to a limited extent applicable to similar cases. Given Afghanistan’s specific and complex situation, generalizations based on this research are not recommended. In addition, the indicators that are chosen explain relatively well why the conflict still continues, nevertheless, better defined and more indicators are necessary to cover the remaining aspects of the conflict. And lastly, there is a very thin line between the different levels. For practical reasons, the local and national aspects are combined in this research. Ideally, a distinction would provide a more clear assessment. Also, regional and international level often overlap in reality, and this study has not entirely been able to distinct them. Furthermore, any work on Afghanistan runs the risk of being too simplistic or too reductionist in describing the intricately tangled web that is Afghanistan, which also applies for this research.

Despite these limitations, the results do confirm that the different dynamics on three different levels, and their combination, do contribute to the continuation of the conflict and thus are sustaining factors of the conflict. This analysis also showed that there is not a single conflict in this country, but many interconnected ones, involving many actors whose motivations and goals not only differ, but are often in conflict too. This analysis demonstrates a very pessimistic and looming picture of Afghanistan’s future, and sincere, practical, and realistic policy recommendations are very hard to make.

For this reason, further research is necessary to specify what aspects need to be prioritized to work on, for a more stable and secure country. It should be examined how the economy can be stimulated while at the same time regional cooperation is unlikely to take place given the rivalries in the region. It should be analyzed how insurgency can be fought, how the ethnic and tribal customs can be set aside, and how Afghanistan can recover from its rentier position. There are many challenges Afghanistan is facing, as has been shown in this research. And one of the

85 Ellaha Abassi – MSc Crisis and Security Management Public Administration – Leiden University Campus The Hague major mistakes made in the past is either simplifying Afghanistan’s complex environment, or trying to work on all dimensions with limited possibilities. The question thus remains, what aspects in the Afghan conflict need to be prioritized in order to move towards security and stability? In addition, the fragmentation of the Taliban may at the moment be one of the biggest challenges for the Afghan government, which reduces the possibility to initiate and carry forward peace negotiations. As the traditional cohesion of the Taliban has collapsed, the identification of interlocutors with whom dialogue can be initiated also disappears. On the other hand, fragmentation of the Taliban, and the rise of insurgency groups like ISIS would also lead to less influence from Pakistan. What will Pakistan’s decrease of influence on the Afghan insurgency mean for the power relations in the region?

86 Ellaha Abassi – MSc Crisis and Security Management Public Administration – Leiden University Campus The Hague