Velocitat del vent

RQ3 is concerned with the role of prosumers as part of the energy transition: What is the prosumers’ role in energy transition and how do prosumers influence the transition? This RQ addresses the identified gaps related to the lack of single-actor research in addition to systemic studies and the need to better understand the influences of actors in the wider context (Köhler et al. 2019; Schot et al. 2016; Wittmayer et al. 2017).

As established in studies related to the socio-technical MLP (Geels 2012; Geels et al. 2019; Verbong and Geels 2010) and SNM (Schot and Geels 2008), sufficient pressure from both landscape and niche is required to fuel up regime shifts. Once the transition progresses, regime gets more and more involved in the change. The research framework already made pre-assumptions about the prosumer role at the high level; prosumers were considered as actors that are enabled by technology, economic, policy, or individual factors and that engage in activities such as energy production, sales, storage, DR, and innovation co-creation that in turn influence the transition. These activities influence the sustainability transition of the energy and contribute to the value along with other actors in the energy ecosystem (Talmar et al. 2018; Wittmayer et al. 2017).

Articles I and II observed prosumers in the socio-technical MLP (Geels and Schot 2007) and smart grid innovation ecosystem, respectively. Prosumers were considered as actors that participated in different activities, which in turn launched potentially new bottom-up trajectories for the energy regime change at the same time as the macro-level policy pressurized the regime from the top. In this dissertation, and especially in the appended articles, the energy prosumers were observed not so much as citizen activists (user-citizens, Schot et al. 2016) but rather as active participants in the energy system and markets. This research dived into different aspects of the energy prosumers through their enablers and activities and from there attempts to increase the understanding of the prosumer role in the energy system transition.

To influence the transition and accelerate it, the prosumer base must be substantial (Foxon and Pearson 2008; Hillman et al. 2011). Prosumer base growth has taken different paths in different markets; examples of Germany and the UK having a large number of residential prosumers have already been discussed (European Commission 2017). On the contrary, Finland still has a small prosumer base (Ahola 2019). Scenarios built on the basis of expert interviews⁵ on the prosumer role development in the Finnish energy system in the next ten-year horizon proposed

5As part of the ProCem project in 2017.

that the prosumer base growth would bring both benefits and challenges to the Finnish energy system. The benefits were seen in the form of increased amounts of RES and DG and new business opportunities. The main concerns related to mass prosumerism included a perceived threat of out-of-control micro-grids that could destabilize the entire electricity system, business challenges to the existing energy sector companies, and a potential off-grid movement led by the consumers. It was considered unlikely by the experts that the prosumer base will rapidly grow in Finland over the next 10 years. This is at least partly attributable to the fact that Finland does not currently offer strong incentives, such FIT, to solar PV energy production. Moreover, there are no official targets to increase the solar energy production (Haukkala 2019). The experts agreed that the “prosumerism stalls,” in which the prosumer base slowly increases but still remains marginal from the energy systems point of view, is the most likely scenario in Finland during the time frame and in the current regulative environment.

First step to prosumer base growth is adoption of the technology enablers. This is directly linked to e.g. solar PV and EV diffusion. Article V focused on understanding the policy influence on RET adoption and found out that having a policy mix that consist of both economic and non-economic incentives is important.

While the prosumer base development in some markets may be slow and uncertain, once the prosumer base is sufficiently large, it starts to have an impact on the energy transition. These potential effects are discussed in light of sustainable development, energy systems and markets, and energy innovations.

Sustainability is considered to include economic, environmental, and social aspects (WCED 1987). How does prosumerism influence these three key areas of sustainable development? First, environmental sustainability is a macro-level concept that is closely related to the climate change mitigation. Prosumerism can contribute to environmental sustainability in multiple ways (see e.g. (Blättel-Mink 2014;

Kotilainen 2018, 2019; Park et al. 2018)). For example, increasing DG of energy based on RES has a positive impact on emission reduction (Kohtala 2015). If the prosumer base is large, prosumerism significantly increases the share of renewables in the energy system and helps in mitigating climate change in the form of reduced emissions. Prosumerism can also contribute through improved energy efficiency. In case energy efficiency is considered to include the concept of peak demand reduction, and especially when the battery storage technologies become more widespread, lowering overall demand and allowing roll-out of better flexibility schemes becomes feasible (Barbour and González 2018; Olinsky-Paul 2019).

Second, social sustainability is a broad concept, and community resilience is one of

the factors used to measure it (Magis 2010). Access to affordable energy can lead to improved resiliency in communities and has a positive impact on people’s livelihoods. Energy production using solar PV, wind turbines, or biomass processors could dramatically change the situation in rural communities that currently do not have access to the electricity grid (Magis 2010). Third, economic sustainability can be improved when new business models involving prosumers become mainstream (Sandoval and Grijalva 2016). Prosumers’ opportunities to sell energy to consumers enable savings and additional income. After recuperating the initial investment of solar PV, locally produced and consumed energy is highly affordable (Wolske et al.

2017).

Energy system influences of prosumerism, including both technical and commercial impacts, were already discussed in Chapter 2. Increased decentralization and variable energy production challenge the electricity grids in their current form (IEA-RETD 2014; Kiviluoma et al. 2018). More flexible ways of producing and using energy are needed to overcome these obstacles. The importance of DR is emphasized at the consumption end. Similarly, the position of incumbent energy firms and regime rules are challenged. Prosumers as part of the smart grid innovation ecosystem were discussed in appended Article I and the changing industry dynamics were discussed in Article II. This dissertation did not, however, focus on understanding the technical challenges related to prosumerism, a topic that has already received substantial amount of attention in other studies (Gensollen et al. 2018; Malamaki et al. 2017;

Pasetti et al. 2018; Qiu et al. 2018)

Energy markets also feel the pressure to change as new business models that are enabled by the digitalization of the energy system emerge. For example, new types of market places for small-scale producers are likely to emerge as regulation is gradually adjusted to meet the needs of changing requirements. The role of micro-grids and energy communities in the energy markets need to be better understood.

New actors and roles, such as aggregators, are also emerging. The changes require market rules and legislation to be updated (TEM 2018). Article II focused from the socio-technical MLP into the smart grid innovation ecosystem, where different actors were positioned along with the prosumer. The article concluded that creating systemic innovations requires close co-operation between incumbent and new stakeholders, which can be challenging owing to different “clock-speeds” of ICT and energy companies. Finding the common “mission” may be time-consuming and currently, prosumers are less than integrated into the energy system processes.

In Article II, prosumer influence on energy innovations was explored through the development of digital layers through which the prosumers engaged with other

actors in the ecosystem. These activities were proposed as different types of ecosystem-level innovations such as functionality improvements, innovative services, and new innovative processes. Consumers and prosumers are also known as DIY users because they could come up with new innovative functionalities (Cloutier et al. 2018; Fox 2014; Wolf and McQuitty 2011). However, especially user-centric electricity innovations are still rare, partially due to fact that the electricity markets are still regulated and there are many aspects that are off-bounds for other than qualified electricians or authorized organizations (Heiskanen and Matschoss 2011). On the other hand, there are more innovation examples related to solar PV (Ornetzeder and Rohracher 2013) and home energy technologies such as heatpumps (Hyysalo et al. 2013). Energy communities are currently emerging in Europe, which could further increase the grassroots innovations (Klein and Coffey 2016). Working with prosumers could help businesses improve and mature their solutions and be ready to convince the mass-market adopters that require easy solutions. Articles III and IV developed the understanding of prosumers as innovators and value-creators.

The research showed, for example, that consumers and prosumers are interested in different types of innovation activities, especially in the demonstration and commercialization phases of NPD, and that they are mostly motivated by intrinsic factors. Intrinsic motivations also have been suggested to be more effective in steering long-term behavior in earlier research (Clark et al. 2003; Füller 2010;

Kotilainen, Mäkinen, et al. 2016; Ryan and Deci 2000).