April 29, 2022 - Metro Vancouver

(1)

Roderick V. Louis

To speak to agenda item

9.1 “Considering Proposed Increase in TransLink’s Borrowing Limit“ from $5.5 Billion to $6.8 Billion;

=========================================

And, separately, afterwards (if the MV RD board Chairperson allows, or if the board votes in favour…),

- To answer questions from board members regarding my

previous written & verbal submissions re the draft Metro 2050 RGS that is also on today’s mtg agenda…

Section C 1

(2)

Agenda Item 9.1: Translink debt Increase

The mayors' council on regional transportation* (not Translink!!) is requesting MV RD board endorsement for Translink's debt limit being raised from its already astronomically high $5.5 Billion to

$6.8 Billion...

* Pursuant to requirements of section 31 (1.1) of the South Coast British Columbia Transportation Authority Act (RSBC):

April-2022: Translink has approximately $4 Billion of net debts;

Mayors Council is requesting MV board support for Translink’s

debts increasing by 70% (to almost $6.8 Billion) by 2028 …

(3)

Insufficient information provided to MV RD

April 05-2022 letter from Mayors Council chairperson to MV RD board reads:

“The proposed increase (in Translink's debt limit would) support the

delivery of the regional share of capital expenditures in the (2022- 2032) Investment Plan, (to pay for projects such as Surrey Langley Skytrain...)”

 The 2022- 2032 “Investment Plan” is not part of the MV RD April 29-2022 agenda package & has never been (publicly) provided to members of the MV RD board;

 The 2022- 2032 “Investment Plan” is still undergoing

development**: “Public consultations” to end May 01-2022;

** Pursuant to sections 15 (3.1) & 202.1 (1) (c) of the SCBCTA Act…

(4)

Insufficient information provided to MV RD

 A“completed” 2022- 2032 “Investment Plan” shd be provided to the MV RD board before the Mayors’ Council’s request for MV

endorsement of Translink’s debt limit increase… is accepted by MV and before the Mayors Council’s request is considered and voted upon by board members!!

(5)

Insufficient information provided to MV RD

The report, PPT presentation, correspondence & all other materials that have been provided to the MV RD board (for consideration):

a) Do not disclose the estimated total procurement and construction costs for the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain project

b) Do not disclose how much of these estimated costs are to be paid by Translink?? the BC govt??

The ridiculous "funding model" contained in the January 30-2020 project Business Case** requires Translink to pay 2/3 of the project's

procurement and construction costs, with the BC govt required to provide ZERO funds!! ...

… while every other previous and existing SkyTrain project has been and is planned to be paid for by the BC govt providing 1/3 to 2/3 of

(6)

Insufficient information provided to MV RD

** January 30-2020 Business Case was submitted by the Mayors

Council to the BC govt for approval/ rejection in late January-2020, but BC govt has never approved or rejected or even commented publicly on the Business Case...

=======================================

The report, PPT presentation, correspondence & all other materials that have been provided to the MV RD board (for consideration) also:

c) Do not disclose Translink's projected total annual income- and annual discretionary income- during 2022- 2032;

d) Do not disclose how- or if- Translink intends to increase its annual discretionary income during 2022- 2042... to levels that are sufficient

(7)

Insufficient information provided to MV RD

The report, PPT presentation, correspondence & all other materials that have been provided to the MV RD board (for consideration) also:

e) Do not disclose Translink’s projected annual “ debt service costs ” (Annual Interest + payments towards debt principle amounts) during 2022- 2032;

f) Do not disclose how much Translink’s debt service costs are projected to be annually… as a percentage of annual revenues (25%?? 40%?? More/ Less??)... during 2022- 2032;

g) Do not disclose projected annual interest rates on

Translink’s debts 2022 - 2032;

(8)

Insufficient information provided to MV RD

The report, PPT presentation, correspondence & all other materials that have been provided to the MV RD board (for consideration) also:

h) Do not disclose a BC-govt-approved Business Case for the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain project;

i) Do not disclose a business case for the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain project... that contains an "approved funding model" that

identifies all confirmed sources of project funding…;

 The BC govt has never publicly approved, rejected or

recommended proposed amendments to the January 30-2020 project business case that was approved then by the Mayors

(9)

Insufficient information provided to MV RD

The report, PPT presentation, correspondence & all other materials that have been provided to the MV RD board (for consideration) also:

j) Do not explain why BC govt funds should not be used to pay

the construction costs of "South of Fraser" (SOF) rail rapid-

transit (SkyTrain) projects...

k) Do not explain: Why should heavily in-debted Translink be

required to provide upwards of 2/3 of SOF SkyTrain projects' construction costs??!!,

… while every other previous and existing SkyTrain project has been and is planned to be paid for by BC govt providing

whatever funding is required to pay 1/3 to 2/3 of whatever

procurement and construction costs were/ are...

(10)

Insufficient information provided to MV RD

The report, PPT presentation, correspondence & all other materials that have been provided to the MV RD board (for consideration) also:

l) Do not disclose concerns that debt ratings agencies (October-

2021 DBRS, March- 2022 Moody's) have expressed regarding Translink's currently very high level of net debts- approximately

$4.0 Billion- in that these debts represent (roughly) 285 percent

of Translink's annual discretionary income...and

…should Translink's debt's increase above 300 percent of annual discretionary income,



this could cause a substantial downgrading of Translink's credit

ratings... resulting in significantly higher borrowing (interest

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Insufficient information provided to MV RD

• At its May 25-2018 meeting, the MV RD Board voted in favour of Translink’s Mayors’ Council’s request that the Board approve/ endorse Translink’s debt ceiling being increased by nearly 50 percent: from $4 Billion to $5.5 Billion …

• Financial disclosures that were provided to the Metro Vancouver board at its May-2018 mtg were inadequate and insufficient to allow for a proper, competent

assessment of the financial health of Translink at the time, and its potential future financial health looking

ahead 20- years…

(12)

Translink’s Debts & Debt Ceiling 2022 - 2032:

• At today’s (April 29 -2022) MV RD board mtg, members are being requested (by the Mayors Council) to vote in favour of endorsing Translink’s debt ceiling being

increased from $5.5 Billion to $6.8 Billion …

• Similar to the May 25-2018 MV RD mtg, the financial

disclosures that have been provided to the MV RD board are substantially inadequate and insufficient to allow for a proper, competent assessment of the financial

health of Translink today, and its potential future financial

health looking ahead 20- years…

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Agenda Item 9.1: Mayors’ Conflicts of Interest

The mayors' council is requesting MV RD board endorsement

for Translink's debt limit being raised from its already

astronomically high $5.5 Billion to $6.8 Billion...

All of the MV Region’s 21 municipalities’ mayors are members of the Mayors Council… 20 of the MV Region’s

21

municipalities’

mayors are also members of the MV RD board …

Blatant, untenable conflict of interest for MV RD board

members- that are mayors- to participate in deliberations & voting on the Mayors Council request to the MV RD board for

endorsement of Translink’s debt limit being increased to

$6.8 Billion…

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Requested Action #1

Due to inherent biases and conflicts of interest:

 All of the MV region's mayors that are members of the MV RD board should recuse themselves from

participating in board deliberations and voting on agenda Item 9.1 (the Mayors' Council's request for MV RD board

endorsement for Translink's debt limit being raised from $5.5

Billion to $6.8 Billion )…

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Requested Actions #2 and #3

2) Decline the Mayors’ Council's request

for MV RD board endorsement of the proposed $1.3 Billion increase to the amount TransLink may borrow (from $5.5 Billion to $6.8

Billion);

3) Send a letter to the Mayors Council advising that the MV

RD board would be prepared to reconsider its decision to not endorse the proposed increase to Translink's borrowing limit,

if

… the Mayors Council first provides the board with the

information and documents delineated in a) to l), in previous

slides...;

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TransLink’s 2022 Investment Plan

Metro Vancouver Finance Committee TransLink Delegation

Sarah Ross, VP, Transportation Planning and Policy Olga Kuznetsova, VP, Financial Services

April 21, 2022

Section E 9.1

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2022 Funding Stabilization Plan

• TransLink has bold ambition for the future (T2050, 10Y Priorities), but the financial footing need to be stabilized first

• Recognizing the uncertainties, we are taking a conservative approach to new revenues to limit the burden on the public

• We will continue to monitor ridership, study new funding sources, and review additional revenue needs prior to the next Investment Plan

6

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Investments in the Plan

• Local Transit - Bus, SeaBus, and HandyDART

• Bus Priority – Enhanced bus speed and reliability

• Technology investments and passenger facilities - Compass, Washrooms

• Reliable and Fast Transit – Surrey-Langley SkyTrain, Rail, RapidBus, Major projects business casing

• Safe Roads and People First Streets – Roads, Walking and Cycling Investments

• Infrastructure Resilience - State of Good Repair, Low Carbon Fleet Strategy, Operations and Maintenance Centre (OMC5)

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Funding the Investment Plan

• Given the uncertainty, taking a conservative approach to limit affordability impacts on public – any remaining funding gap can be filled in next

Investment Plan

• For this Investment Plan, we’ll raise an additional average $52 million annually through:

• $23M from carbon credits, commercial revenue, and real estate development distributions

• $29M in property tax – this translates to approximately $3 per residential property in 2023

• Transit fare increases are 2.3% through 2024, and 2% from 2025-2031

• These increases are lower than previously planned. For example, fare rates previously anticipated for 2023 will not be reached until 2026 or 2027

• Continues to offer free transit for children 12 and under, with support from the Province

• Continue to monitor ridership and revenue and work with the Province to develop a sustainable funding strategy prior to the next Investment Plan

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Financial Impacts

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(500) (450) (400) (350) (300) (250) (200) (150) (100) (50)

-

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Millions

Post-COVID revenue loss net of relief funding COVID revenue loss net

of relief funding

SLS to Langley

ZEV revenue loss Extension of municipal cost share programs

Compass and washrooms

Items that contribute to TransLink’s gap

Average Annual Impact $M COVID revenue

loss* 120

Post-COVID

revenue loss** 250

SLS 38

ZEV 25

Municipal cost

share programs 5

Compass and

washrooms 2

* Average 2020-22, net of relief funding

** Average 2023-31, net of relief funding

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Accumulated Funding Resources

(2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500)

- 500 1,000 1,500

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Millions

Excess/(shortfall) from AFR Policy Minimum

AFR goes below Policy in 2026

Note: based on mid-case ridership scenario

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Debt to Revenue Ratio

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Debt to Operating Revenue Ratio

Policy Limit <300%

Perc ent age

Note: based on Mid-case ridership scenario; Exceeds policy in 2026 and 2027

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What is the Debt to Revenue Ratio?

• The debt to revenue ratio reflects the amount of operating revenue available to support the level of net debt in a given year

• The ratio increasing above 300% indicates that TransLink is taking on more debt to support the capital program, without a proportionate

increase in operating revenue sufficient to support that debt

• To address the pressure on the debt to revenue ratio, TransLink will:

– Work with the Province and the Mayors' Council to identify additional / new sustainable revenue sources

– Continue to prudently manage, prioritize and scrutinize capital program, ensuring that it is affordable

– TransLink expects to address the pressures in the next Investment Plan

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Debt limit

• The investment plan will require an increase in the borrowing limit from $5.5 billion to $6.8 billion

millions

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Actual Forecast >>

Established Borrowing Limit

(Gross Direct Debt) 5,500 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800 6,800

TransLink Gross Direct Debt 3,556 3,774 4,071 4,778 5,480 6,036 6,400 6,609 6,702 6,546 6,647

TransLink Net Debt

(including other financing) 3,913 4,030 4,123 4,676 5,265 5,842 6,231 6,246 6,185 5,914 5,696

Note: based on mid-case ridership scenario

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Capital Program and Funding Sources

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Key Focus of the Capital Program

•Main SLS project and enabling projects such as OMC 5 and Compass System Upgrades

Surrey Langley Skytrain Project

•To ensure service reliability and safety State of Good Repair

•Continued investment in making the transit fleet carbon neutral and achieve GHG reduction goals

Advance the Low Carbon Fleet Strategy

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SLS and OMC 5 42%

SOGR and All Other 24%

Bus Fleet Projects 19%

Municipal Cost- Share/Contribution

Programs 5%

Skytrain Fleet Replacements

3%

Marpole Transit Centre Compass Program 3%

Upgrades 2%

LCFS - Infrastructure (BTC)

2%

Project Categories

$10.6B

2022-2031 Capital Program - New Planned Projects

Investment Categories and Funding Sources

Note 1: Includes $358M already approved for program year 2022. 2023-2031 utilization of GVRF is $1.5B

GVRF, $1,827 , 17%

Other Federal,

$1,883 , 18%

Province, $3,138 , 30%

TL/Regional,

$3,725 , 35%

2022-2031 Planned Capital Program by Funding Source

GVRF Other Federal Province TL/Regional

$10.6B

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Capital Program Cash Flow for Planned Projects

By Funding Source

$120 $321 $518 $597 $667

$549

$281 $245 $151 $151 $91

$47

$204 $137

$579

$236

$135 $181

$86 $86 $132

$50

$125 $241

$380

$404

$503

$65

$59

$289

$316

$435

$573

$632

$686

$- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

Chart Title

TL/Regional GVRF Other Federal Province

Projects initiated in 2031 have cash flows that extend out to 2032 and 2033

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Capital Program Cash Flow 2022-2031

Active + Planned (Net of Funding $M)

$636 $669

$307 $255

$140

$79

$119

$311

$501 $596

$654

$548

$281

$244

$150 $150

$756

$980

$807 $851

$794

$627

$297

$246

$153 $151

$- $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Remaining spend of Active Projects Planned Project Spend (2022-2031) Total

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Greater Vancouver Regional Fund - Funding Utilization

$113

$0 $0 $0

$23

$179

$254

$329

$360

$- $100 $200 $300 $400

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Ending Balance - GVRF

Year End Balance

$146

$153

$156

$159

$162

$165 -$358

-$444

-$265

-$156 -$156

-$136

-$87 -$87 -$134

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Allocations from Canada and TL Draws by Year

Allocation from Canada TL Draw LCFS - RNG

Buses, $113 , LCFS - BEB 6%

Buses, $826 , 45%

LCFS - Trolleys,

$552 , 30% LCFS -

Marpole,

$298 , 17%

Other - SOGR,

$37 , 2%

GVRF Allocation

$1.8B

• GVRF utilization for the 2022 Investment Plan focuses on advancing LCFS and reducing the GHG footprint of TransLink and the MV region

• TransLink will continue to look for opportunities to maximize other new funding sources (such as ZETF)

• $360M remaining at the end of 2031 expected to be fully utilized by 2034 for 2032-34 fleet replacements

*Note 1

*Note 1: Already approved in Q1 2022

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Questions?

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Metro 2050

PUBLIC HEARING REPORT AND REFERRAL FOR ACCEPTANCE Heather McNell

Section G 1.1

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OUTLINE

• Summarize Metro 2050 Engagement

• Report on Public Hearing

• Provide outline of Metro

2050 acceptance process

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SCOPE OF REGIONAL GROWTH STRATEGY UPDATE

• Build on the successes of Metro 2040

• Long standing tools working well – Urban Containment

Boundary, regional land use designations, Urban Centre and FTDAs and targets, limiting extension of sewer services

• Align with Transport 2050

• Focus on updating / modernizing policy on critical

issues: climate action, affordable housing, social equity

outcomes, and protecting the environment

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METRO 2050 ENGAGEMENT PLAN - AUDIENCES

Audience Examples Metro 2050

Signatories

• Member Jurisdictions

• TransLink

• Adjacent Regional Districts

Regional

Stakeholders

• Agricultural Land Commission

• Health Authorities

• Airport and Port Authorities

• Post Secondary Institutions

First Nations • In-Region First Nations

• All First Nations with Interests in Metro Vancouver

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METRO 2050 PHASES AND TIMING

Phase 1:

Policy Reviews & New Ideas Phase 2:

Draft Metro 2050 Phase 3:

Approvals

2019 2020 2021 2022

Board Direction (April)

11 Policy Reviews (Recommendations)

DraftMetro 2050 comment period

Board Adoption July 2022 Council Presentations Council Presentations

Drafting Metro 2050 Engagement

Plan (Sept)

Public Hearing / Refer for Acceptance

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POLICY REVIEWS: ENGAGEMENT (2019-2020)

• Joint survey with Transport 2050;

~30,000 responses

• 4 Metro 2050 Dialogue Events

• Policy Review Forums

• Meetings with First Nations

• Council Presentations

• Benefits of Regional Planning Videos & Social Media promotion

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DRAFTING THE PLAN: ENGAGEMENT (2021)

• Intergovernmental Advisory Committee;

• First Nations Working Group

• Build / Review draft content goal by goal (Jan-May)

• 5 Month Comment Period (Jul-Nov); over 900 individual comments

• Provincial working sessions (spring / summer)

• IAC Policy Working Groups (summer)

• PNE Kiosk (Aug)

• 26 Council & Board Presentations; 4 Public Open Houses (fall)

• Public Webinar (Oct); 300+ participants

• Social Media Promotion; Online Comment Form

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COMMENTS RECEIVED FROM COMMENT PERIOD

• 22 member jurisdictions

• Adjacent regional districts

• Vancouver Coastal Health and Fraser Health

• TransLink, Province, Federal Government, Port of Vancouver, Post Secondary Institutions

• Local organizations and non-profits

• 3 local First Nations

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WHAT WE HEARD – AREAS OF SUPPORT

• Major Transit Growth Corridors

• Urban Centre and FTDA growth targets

• Transit Oriented Development, infill

• Compact, complete communities

• Greater inclusion of First Nations’ planning,

development, and interests

• Ecosystem protection

• Tree canopy cover target

• Protection of Agricultural lands

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WHAT WE HEARD – AREAS OF SUPPORT

• Resilience with focus on flood risk and natural hazard mitigation

• Climate action including adaptation

• Rental and affordable housing policies, particularly near transit

• Social Equity outcomes

Strong commentary that Metro 2050 builds on current plan, advances collective action on critical issues facing region,

provides a solid

framework for coordinated policy responses, and is aligned with local priorities

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WHAT WE HEARD – MIXED SUPPORT & CONCERN

• Frequent Transit Development Area Sub-Types

• 15% Affordable Housing Target and implementation

• Enabling flexibility for

residential uses on some Employment lands

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RESULTING REVISIONS TO METRO 2050

• Removed the Frequent Transit Development Area Sub-Types

• Added content related to Indigenous perspectives and priorities

• Refined the Regional Affordable Housing Target

• Refined policy 2.2.9 d) enabling limited residential uses on Employment lan

ds

• Many other constructive edits for clarity

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WHAT WE HEARD

• Comments & proposed edits to Metro 2050 went to the Board in January; deferred consideration for one month to work with members on outstanding issues.

• Met with staff and elected officials from 7 municipalities and made additional edits to: strengthen climate action

language; provide greater clarity on targets; and clarify intent of Major Transit Growth Corridors.

• Also added recommendation to undertake concurrent work on strengthening climate language and policy with an aim to an early amendment.

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APRIL 20 PUBLIC HEARING

• Advertised in Vancouver Sun and all local weekly papers

• Social Media

• Email to all engaged stakeholders

• Option to speak in person or online

• 6 pm start time for accessibility

• 10 speakers

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NEXT STEPS

• Referral for acceptance

• 60 day acceptance period (May-July)

• 3^rd Reading July Board Meeting

• Adopt / Dispute resolution

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Consider level of support:

• Number of Acceptances

• Any non-acceptance and what objection is

• Consider whether to adopt if provision does not apply to that member

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FINAL THOUGHTS

• 3 year process with deep engagement

• Striking the balance with 26

signatories with unique challenges and perspectives

• Still work to do. Living document.

• Minor amendment process allows the plan to be amended when there is better data / science, best

practices or with will of the Board

The regional federation’s vision for how to manage growth

coming to the region in a way that reflects the federation’s values (put growth in the right places, protect important lands, support efficient urban

infrastructure)

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