University of Alberta School of Business
Fall 2009 MGTSC501
Dr. Ray Hagtvedt Data Analysis and Decision Making
COURSE SYLLABUS
Course Description_______________________________________________________
Decision-makers at every level of business are basing their decisions on more advanced models and better data as personal computers become more advanced, data collection becomes more prevalent, and business decisions become more complex. This course introduces you to statistical procedures and reasoning that will help you in analyze data yourself or interpret and evaluate statistical reports.
Materials________________________________________________________________
Textbook: Statistics for Business and Economics, 10
thedition, by David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney & Thomas A. Williams, South-Western (Thomson Learning); ISBN:
0-324-658370.
uLearn/Blackboard will have lectures and other downloads. Messages from class or about class will be posted, and along with messages that are only given in class, regarded as
“received by definition”.
Course Grade____________________________________________________________
Your grade will be determined as follows:
Class Participation (See Attendance Policy) ±10 %*
Homework 30 %
Midterm 30 %
Final Exam 40 %
*Class participation is earned or lost through direct positive or negative impact on the class, and average participation will have no impact.” ±10 %* “ covers at least 95% of students, and most likely, 100%; it is unlikely any one student will get more CP than +10%, or -10% negative CP.
Attendance Policy _________________________________________________________
Attendance is not required, but see the Class Participation point above. NB! Each student is always responsible for the material covered in the classes missed, as well as any and all messages delivered in class.
Contact Information: ____________________________________________________
Office Hours: Tuesdays 1200-1300 and Wednesdays 1300-1400
Office: Business Building 2-43
Email Address: [email protected]
Phone: 780-248-1262
Assignments___________________________________________________________________
You are responsible for reading the text and doing the homework assignments in order to follow the flow of the class. It is not necessary to memorize the text, but some familiarity with the concepts and terminology prior to class will make it much easier to digest the lectures. Also, if homework problems are not properly understood prior to the class, it is a good idea to redo them after class while they are fresh in
posted, as such postings invariably find their way into legacy files. Active participation in discussing these problems will greatly help your understanding, and may help with class participation. In addition, these discussions are a key way to measure the level of class understanding, so I appreciate and encourage your participation.
Homework Sets: Provided we have the resources to do this properly, deliverable homework sets are extremely useful. We will attempt to have four to six such homework sets during the semester. These are to be turned in at the very beginning of the lecture they are due. They will be graded and solutions will be provided.
Exams & Grading_____________________________________________________________
We will have a take-home midterm and an in-class final exam. The rules for these exams will be posted, but in general:
• for the take-home you must do your own work, and show it. You may not work with anyone, but other than that, books, articles, web-pages, etc, are all acceptable tools. However, if you use any source, you must cite it, otherwise you are claiming that what you turned in is your own original work (see plagiarism).
• for the in-class exams you may not bring anything that will give an advantage over classmates. In particular, you may not bring advanced calculators, formula sheets, or printed material. You may bring four sheets of paper (crib-sheets) to the final exam, front and back, in your own hand- writing.
The basic idea is to provide a level playing field for all students.
Missed mid-term exams for cause will have their weight added to the final exam. No two exams are exactly the same, so no makeup exams will be given under any circumstances. Missed exams without reason earn a zero for the exam. The only exception to this rule is if the final exam itself is missed, in which case formal University of Alberta guidelines and procedures will be followed.
For all deliverables, raw scores will be translated to z-scores (after all, this is a class in statistics). The z- scores will be weighted using the numbers above, in the following formula.
Course grade = (Weight for Homework)*(Homework Score) + (Weight for Midterm)*(Midterm Score) + (Weight for Final Exam)*(Final Exam Score)
± Class Participation
The cut-offs will be determined by the University of Alberta Guidelines, in particular the following:
The University of Alberta Grading System
The University of Alberta uses a letter grading system with a four-point scale of numerical equivalents for calculating grade point averages. Grades reflect judgments of student achievement made by instructors. These judgments are based on a combination of absolute achievement and relative
performance in a class. Some instructors assign grades at intervals during the course and others assign marks (e.g. percentages) throughout the term and then assign a letter grade at the end. Instructors must adapt their approaches to reflect the letter grading system. Grade distribution should reflect those shown in this document. (EXEC 03 FEB 2003)
Distribution of Grades in 500 Level Graduate Courses
Letter Grade
Percentage
A+ 10
A 14
A 16
B+ 17
B 16
B 14
C+ 8
C 2
C 1
D+ 0
D 1
F 1
Mean 3.2
Median B+
Any deviation from this will be in the student’s favor, in the sense that no student will do worse.
However, an adjustment upward may be done in the case of students who demonstrate understanding of the course material later in the course. This is likely to be done by over-weighting portions of the grade that are more difficult or more comprehensive. For example, doing well on the final exam is a method that may salvage a poor grade going into the final, while doing well only on homework will not.
Selected University of Alberta Guidelines__________________________________________
Policy about course outlines can be found in Section 23.4(2) of the University Calendar. (GFC 29 SEP 2003)
“The University of Alberta is committed to the highest standards of academic integrity and honesty.
Students are expected to be familiar with these standards regarding academic honesty and to uphold the policies of the University in this respect. Students are particularly urged to familiarize themselves with the provisions of the Code of Student Behaviour (online at
www.uofaweb.ualberta.ca/governance/studentappealsregulations.cfm) and avoid any behaviour which could potentially result in suspicions of cheating, plagiarism, misrepresentation of facts and/or
participation in an offence. Academic dishonesty is a serious offence and can result in suspension or expulsion from the University.” (GFC 29 SEP 2003)
Procedures for Registering Complaints About Marking, Grading and Related Issues
a. Where the above guidelines have not been followed or where students have concerns about the instructor’s teaching, the student should make the concern known to the appropriate individual in the following sequence:
1) Instructor
2) Chair of the Department in which the course is taught
3) Dean of the Faculty in which the course is taught (some Faculties have delegated this authority to Departments)
c. These procedures do not constitute a mechanism for appeals and grievances regarding the academic standing or individual grades of a student. Appeals and grievances of that nature are dealt with in §23.8 of the University Calendar.
Plagiarism, Cheating, Misrepresentation of Facts, and Participation in an Offence
The University of Alberta considers plagiarism, cheating, misrepresentation of facts and participation in an offence to be serious academic offences. Plagiarism, cheating, misrepresentation of facts and
participation in an offence can be avoided if students are told what these offences are and if possible sanctions are made clear at the outset. Instructors should understand that the principles embodied in the Code of Student Behaviour are essential to our academic purpose. For this reason, instructors will be fully supported by Departments, Faculties and the University in their endeavours to rightfully discover and pursue cases of academic dishonesty in accordance with the Code.At the beginning of each term, instructors should review with their students the definitions of plagiarism and cheating. We are now also asking you to review with your students the definition of Misrepresentation of Facts and participation in an Offence. Your cooperation and assistance in this matter are much appreciated. The Don’t Cheatsheet summarizes the appropriate sections of the Code that deals with the four offences noted and is available on the University Governance website at www.ualberta.ca/governance/StudentAppealsCheatsheet.cfm.
Instructors are also requested to inform students that when academic offences occur, a number of
sanctions can be imposed, such as mark or grade reduction, failure in the course, a remark on a transcript of 8 (or 9 in failing graduate student grades), indicating Inappropriate Academic Behaviour, and students may be suspended or expelled (outlined in §30.4.2 of the GFC Policy Manual).”
Miscellaneous Policy____________________________________________________________
• This course is taught in two sections, on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Feel free to make up classes during the alternate time(s), provided we have sufficient seats.
• If you find yourself in trouble, do not ignore the problem, but come to see me a.s.a.p. I have additional problem sets, as well as additional work, available. However, these will not help 2 weeks before the end of the class.
• Keep up with Bb and make sure you consult the syllabus if you have questions.
• In general, treat everyone in this class with courtesy, and expect courtesy in return. If you have a work assignment, or travel, that conflicts with the course, I do not have a problem with any student who prioritizes work or family emergencies. Note again that attendance is not required, and that is because each of you is responsible for your own learning.
Honor Code___________________________________________________________________
You are responsible for following the University of Alberta honor code explicitly and in spirit.
Anticipated Class Schedule_________________________________________________
The following schedule may change as the semester progresses.
Week Dates
Topic(s)
Textbook ChapterReference
36 September 3 Introduction; Data and Statistics;
Graphical Methods of Descriptive Statistics
Review &
background:
Chapter 1, 2 37 September 8,10 Numerical methods of Descriptive Statistics Chapter 3
38 September 15, 17 Introduction to Probability Chapter 4 (&
see chapter 21)
39 September 22, 24 Discrete Probability Distributions Chapter 5
40 Sept 29 & October 1 Continuous Probability Distributions Chapter 6
41 October 6, 8 Sampling and Sampling Distributions Chapter 7
42 October 13,15 Take-home Midterm (Due 20Oct09) – no class
43 October 20,22 Inferential Statistics: Confidence Interval Estimation Chapter 8
44 October 27,29 Inferential Statistics: Hypothesis Testing Chapter 9
45 November 3, 5 Simple Linear Regression; Ordinary Least Squares Chapter 14
November 10 Fall Term class break; no classes.
46 & 47 November 12, 17,19 Multiple Regression Chapter 15,
16.1-16.3 48 November 24,26;
December 1 Models of multiple OLS; Time Series; Possible extra credit presentations
Chapter 18
49 December 3 Review & Last day of classes
December 8 at 0900-1200