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Centro de Estudios
Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales
Maestría en Economía Universidad Nacional de La Plata
International Market Access and Poverty in
Argentina
Guido Porto
REVIEW OF INT ERNAT IONAL ECONOMICS
Manuscript No: # 7057, Accept ance Dat e: 4 February 2009
Int ernat ional Market Access and Poverty in Argent ina
Guido Port o
RRH: MARKET ACCESS AND POVERT Y IN ARGENT INA LRH: Guido Port o
Abst ract
T his paper examines t he impact of access t o int ernat ional agro-manufact ure market s on poverty in Argent ina. Est imat es from t he lit erat ure suggest t hat expanded market access would cause t he int ernat ional price of Argent ine export s of agro-manufact ures t o increase by between 8.7 and 15.9 percent . I explore two poverty e ect s caused by t hese prices changes: on food expendit ure and on wages. Using a household budget survey, I est imat e t he impact of higher food prices on t he Argent ine poverty line. Using a labor force survey, I est imat e t he responses of wages t o changes in export prices. My main nding is t hat market access would cause poverty t o decline in Argent ina. From a nat ional head count of 29.26 percent , t he poverty rat e would decline t o between 28.28 and 28.80 percent . T his means t hat between 131,000 and 343,000 Argent ines would be moved out of poverty.
Port o: Development Research Group, T he World Bank, MailSt op MC3-303, 1818 H St reet , Washingt on, DC, 20433. Tel: + 54-221-424-1262, email: gport o@worldbank.org. I wish t o t hank I. Brambilla, B. Hoekman, A. Nicit a, M. Olarreaga, and I. Soloaga for very valuable comment s. I have bene t t ed from suggest ions and comment s of seminar part icipant s at Universidad Di Tella, Universidad de La Plat a, and t he LACEA (Lat in America and Caribbean Economic Associat ion) Meet ings. All errors are my responsibility.
JEL codes: F14 F16 F17
Number of Figures: 0 Number of Tables: 4 Dat e: February 18, 2009
1
I nt r oduct ion
T his paper invest igat es t he poverty impact s, in developing count ries, of agricult ural t rade
reforms in t he developed world. T he reforms t hat I explore here are relat ed t o t he ongoing
discussion at t he Doha Round t hat seeks t o eliminat e agricult ural prot ect ion in int ernat ional
market s. Speci cally, developed count ries are expect ed t o reduce subsidies, t ari s and non-t ari
barriers on cereals and agricult ural manufact ures (dairy product s, beef, oils). As a result , t he
int ernat ional prices of t hese goods are expect ed t o increase. In a typical developing count ry,
t here will be two measurable poverty e ect s: on t he poverty line, t hrough changes in t he prices
of consumpt ion goods, and on household income, t hrough changes in fact or prices. On t he
expendit ure side, foreign t rade policies a ect int ernat ional and domest ic prices of agricult ural
and agro-manufact ured goods and t hus t he expendit ure needed t o purchase t he poverty bundle
(part icularly in food). On t he income side, t he price changes faced by producers cause changes
in relat ive fact or demands and in relat ive fact or prices and t hus in household labor income. In
t he end, poverty is a ect ed. Some households may be moved out of poverty and some ot hers
may be moved int o poverty depending upon t he induced changes in wages and t he induced
changes in food prices. Di erent developing count ries will be a ect ed in di erent ways: while
net food import ers will likely be hurt by lower prot ect ion in agricult ure, net producers will be
bene t ed. In t his paper, I illust rat e t he nat ure of t hese poverty impact s in Argent ina, a count ry
wit h a clear comparat ive advant age in agricult ure. T his case st udy is t hus relevant because if
any posit ive e ect s from t he Doha Development Agenda are expect ed, t hey are bound t o show
up in count ries like Argent ina.
My est imat ion of t he poverty impact s of t he enhanced agricult ural export market s comprises
access for Argent ine product s, in t he rst st ep I calculat e t he changes in t he prices of
agro-manufact ured export s caused by foreign t rade reforms in t he developed world. In t he
second st ep, I assess t he change in t he real income of t he average Argent ine worker. To do
t his, I est imat e wage price-elast icit ies (measuring t he responses of wages t o price changes) and
I updat e t he poverty line. Finally, in t he t hird st ep, I use t he policy-induced price changes, t he
est imat ed wage price-elast icit ies and t he shift in t he poverty line t o predict t he real income t hat
would hypot het ically be earned by each Argent ine household aft er t he t rade reforms. To st udy
t he poverty impact s, I comput e pre- and post -policy head-count rat ios (i.e., t he proport ion of
t he populat ion wit h an income lower t han t he poverty line).
T he main nding of t his paper is t hat agricult ural market access would cause poverty
t o decline in Argent ina. Based on est imat es report ed in t he relat ed lit erat ure, I est ablish
t hat agricult ural t rade liberalizat ion is indeed associat ed wit h increases in t he prices of
agro-manufact ured Argent ine export s. T his leads t o a higher poverty line, which t ends t o
increase poverty, and t o higher wages and household income, which t ends t o decrease poverty.
In Argent ina, t he impact s on wages and income are larger t han t he impact s on consumpt ion
prices. As a result , t he net e ect of t rade liberalizat ion is poverty-reducing. From a nat ional
head count of 29.26 percent in 1998, t he poverty rat e would decline t o between 28.28 and
28.80 percent . Poverty would drop nat ionwide, wit h larger declines observed in init ially poorer
2
Pover t y in A r gent ina
T he poverty measure used in t his paper is t he head count rat io, H C, de ned as t he fract ion of
t he populat ion wit h an income below t he poverty line z. Let t ing H C st and for t he head count ,
I de ne H C = 1 N
P
i1f ln(y
i) < ln(z)g, where N is t ot al populat ion, yi is income, and 1f g is
an indicat or funct ion t hat t akes t he value of one if t he argument wit hin bracket s is t rue. T he
poverty line z is t he level of income needed t o purchase t he poverty consumpt ion basket , which
includes food it ems t hat sat isfy a minimum caloric and energet ic int ake, and non-food essent ial
it ems (clot hing, housing, healt h and educat ion). T he poverty line is measured so as t o account
for t he di erent caloric requirement s of individuals wit h di erent charact erist ics, such as sex
and age. T his means t hat z and individual income, yi, are measured in per equivalent adult
unit s (Deat on, 1997). In Argent ina, t he Nat ional Inst it ut e of St at ist ics and Census (INDEC)
const ruct s poverty lines and per equivalent adult scales (INDEC 2002).
At t he nat ional level, t he poverty rat e in Argent ina in 1998 was 29.26 percent .1 T here are
subst ant ial regional di erences in t he count ry, bot h in t he poverty rat e and in t he dist ribut ion
of income. T he head count was 23.3 percent in Great er Buenos Aires, 27.3 percent in Pampa,
36.4 percent in Nort heast , 40.6 percent in Nort hwest , 27.5 percent in Cuyo, and 18.3 percent
in Pat agonia.
3
T heor y: Pover t y I m pact s
T he poverty analysis requires a comparison of t he proport ion of individuals in poverty before
and aft er t he simulat ed foreign policy reform. Given a poverty line z, t he head count rat io is
t he t rade reform. Let eF ( ) be t he cumulat ive dist ribut ion funct ion of t he post -reform income
and let ez be t he updat ed poverty line. T he post policy head count rat io is t herefore eF (ez).
Accordingly, a t rade reform lowers poverty if F (z) F (ee z).
To see t he di erent channels t hrough which t rade a ect s poverty, it is convenient t o de ne
t he head count as H C =
z
Z
0
f (y)dy, where f ( ) is t he density of per equivalent adult income
associat ed wit h F ( ). Let be t he policy paramet er t hat represent s t he level of prot ect ion on
agro-manufact ured product s in developed count ries. Di erent iat ing H C wit h respect t o , I
get
(1) @
@ H C = f (z) @z
@ +
z
Z
0
@
@ f (y)dy:
A change in t rade policy ( ) has two e ect s on poverty: a change in t he poverty line and a
shift in t he dist ribut ion of income. Det ails follow.
3.1
C hanges i n t he P over t y L i ne
T he rst t erm on t he right hand side of (1) measures t he impact of a foreign t rade reform on
t he poverty line: a change in a ect s consumer prices and t herefore t he cost of purchasing
t he poverty bundle. Assuming t he poverty line z increases by @z=@ , f (z) is a measure of
t he increase in t he head count rat io (condit ional on a given density). For a t rade reform t hat
increases Argent ine export prices, t his e ect will be posit ive (i.e., poverty-increasing).
In general, t he poverty bundle comprises bot h food and nonfood it ems. T he ident i cat ion
of a bundle of food it ems t hat would allow di erent individuals t o achieve a minimum caloric
t o purchase t hese minimum calories. To det ermine t he poverty line, expenses on basic non-food
it ems, such as clot hing, healt h, educat ion, et c., are added. T he poverty line can t hus be de ned
as z = X
gpgqg, where pg is t he price of good g, and qg is t he quant ity det ermined in t he
const ruct ion of t he poverty line. Holding t he required quant it ies const ant , t he change in t he
(log) poverty line caused by a change in t he price of good g is given by
(2) ln z = g lnpg( );
where gis t he weight at t ached t o goodg. In deriving t hese changes in t he poverty line, I made
two implicit assumpt ions. First , I kept t he quant it ies consumed const ant . T his corresponds t o
a rst order approximat ion t o t he t rue change in welfare, as in Deat on (1997). Second, I do
not allow changes in t he prices of non-t radable goods t o adjust (See Port o, 2006).
3.2
Shi f t s i n t he D i st r i but i on of I ncom e
T he second poverty impact of a change in foreign t rade policy is given by t he shift in t he
dist ribut ion of income. To see t his, let t he t ot al income of household h beYh = X
m
whm + kh,
wherewh
m is t he wage earned by household memberm(head and non-head), andkh is non-labor
income, including pro t s, ret urns t o speci c fact ors and t ransfers.
Argent ina is a highly urbanized count ry (over 85 percent of t he populat ion lives in urban
areas). Furt her, t he survey dat a t hat I use in t he empirical sect ion capt ures employment in
urban areas only. For t hese reasons, in t he rest of t he paper, I focus on t he e ect s of t rade on
wageswh
m. In part icular, I am not able t o st udy impact s in rural areas, ret urn t o land or farm
measured in t he dat a. T he proport ional changes in t he t ot al income of household h is given by
(3) dY h Yh =
X
m h m"wh
m
@ln pa @ d ;
where "wh
m is t he elast icity of t he wage earned by member m in household h wit h respect t o t he
price pa, and hm is t he share of t he labor income of t he member m in t ot al household income.2
In a small open economy, t here is a t heoret ical general equilibrium relat ionship between t raded
good prices and fact or prices. In a two-good, two-fact or model, t his relat ionship is est ablished
in t he St olper-Samuelson t heorem: an increase in t he relat ive price of a t raded good causes a
more t han proport ional increase in t he price of t he fact or int ensively used in it s product ion.
For mult idimensional models, it is only possible t o predict correlations between movement s
in fact or prices and movement s in product prices (Dixit and Norman, 1980). Similar caveat s
apply when fact or supplies are endogenous (Dixit and Norman, 1980). Learning t he signs and
magnit udes of t hese correlat ions becomes an empirical quest ion and I deal wit h t his in sect ion
4 below.
For a policy change from t o e , t he change in t he income of household h can be est imat ed
wit h
(4) b yh = Yh X m
h mb"wh
m
!
b ln pa( ; e );
where b ln pa( ; e ) is t he predict ed change in t he price of agro-manufact ured export s t hat is
caused by t he change in policy, and b"wh
4
Est im at ion
Concept ually, t here are t hree links in t he met hodology t hat I use in t his paper. T he init ial st ep
is a t rade shock, i.e., a foreign t rade reform, which causes a change in t he domest ic prices of
agro-manufact ured export s in Argent ina. T he second st ep is t he response of t he labor income
of Argent ine households and t he updat ing of t he poverty line. T he t hird st ep comprises t he
poverty impact s (comparing before and aft er head count rat ios).
4.1
C hanges i n t he P r i ces of A gr o-M anuf act ur ed Expor t s
I begin wit h t he changes in t he int ernat ional prices of typical agro-manufact ured export s of
Argent ina, such as dairy, beef, oils and fat s, and mills product s. I assume t hat Argent ina
is a small open economy t hat faces exogenously given prices for t hese goods.3 T hus, t he
domest ic price of agro-manufact ured export s is pa = pa( ), where pa is t he int ernat ional
price of t hese goods. T he t rade policy paramet er is det ermined by t he level of tari and
non-t ari prot ect ion, product ion support and export subsidies in large developed economies.
By any st andards, is high. Indeed, Argent ina has always faced highly dist ort ed market s for
agro-manufact ured product s. For most of t hese goods, t rade int ervent ion t akes t he form of a
t ari rat e quot a, which is a two-t ier t ari st ruct ure. Argent ina is assigned a quot a and import s
of goods wit hin t his quot a pay a relat ively low t ari . Out of quot a import s are subject t o much
higher and oft en t imes prohibit ive t ari s. T here are also a number of non-t ari barriers, such
as st andards, t echnical barriers, as well as subsidies t o domest ic product ion and export s. All
t hese policies cause int ernat ional prices t o decline and rest rict t he market access of Argent ine
product s.
produces t het ari equivalent of ad-valorem t ari s on in-quot a import s, of t ari s on out -of-quot a
import s, and of speci c t ari s. In 1999, for example, t he average t ari on agro-manufact ured
goods was 6.4 percent in t he Unit ed St at e, 18.1 percent in Canada and 21.3 percent in t he
European Union.4 T he ext ensive subsidies t o product ion and export s in many developed
count ries produce even larger dist ort ions.
What magnit udes of price changes can be expect ed aft er episodes of t rade liberalizat ion
(bot h t ari and subsidy cut s) in t he developed world? Inst ead of set t ing up an empirical
model of price changes (which would be beyond t he scope of t his paper), I use est imat es
from t he available lit erat ure. T here are essent ially two polar approaches t hat can be used t o
est imat e price changes: t o recover demand and supply elast icit ies from t he dat a, or t o calibrat e
CGE models. T he elast icity met hodology is based on t he economet ric est imat ion of st ruct ural
paramet ers and it is very dat a int ensive. T he CGE modeling, in cont rast , relies more on
modeling assumpt ions but allows for a more t horough comput at ion of economic responses. For
my purposes, I use empirical ndings on t hese two st rands of lit erat ure t o de ne a lower and
an upper bound for t he price changes.5
One recent paper t hat est imat es t he responses of equilibrium prices of agricult ural product s
in int ernat ional market s is Hoekman, Ng, and Olarreaga (2004). T he aut hors est imat e t he
paramet ers of import demands and export supplies for di erent goods in di erent count ries
and use t hese paramet ers t o solve for t he equilibrium prices. To calculat e t he price responses
of key export s of agro-manufact ured product s in Argent ina, I combine t he est imat es from
Hoekman et al. wit h changes in t hat capt ure t he eliminat ion of t ari prot ect ion and domest ic
support (export and product ion subsidies) in developed count ries. T he rst column of Table 1
percent ), Mills Product s (17.4 percent ), Beef (17.3 percent ) and Oils and Fat s (8.7 percent ).
Averaging t hese individual price changes (weight ed by Argent ine export s), I get an est imat e of
t he aggregat e price change for agricult ural manufact ured product s of 15.9 percent . T his de nes
t he upper bound.
INSERT Table 1 Here
Beghin et al. (2002), on t he ot her hand, perform a CGE st udy of t he responses of t he
int ernat ional prices of agro-manufact ured goods t o a foreign t rade reform t hat , as Hoekman
et al., includes t he eliminat ion of bot h t rade prot ect ion and domest ic support .6 T he second
column of Table 1 report s t he increase in prices: 10.4 percent in Beef, 9 percent in Sugar,
8.3 percent in Dairy Product s, and 2.2 percent in Oils and Fat s. T he average price change
(weight ed by Argent ine export s) is est imat ed at 8.7 percent . T his de nes t he lower bound.
4.2
U pdat i ng t he P over t y L i ne
To est imat e t he change in t he poverty lines induced by t he above price changes, I need t o
est imat e equat ion (2). Let b ln pi( ) be t he price changes of agro-manufact ured product i
arising from t he foreign t rade reforms. T he poverty line z can be updat ed as
(5) b ln z = X i 2 a
bib ln pi( ):
To est imat e t he weight s, bi, I use budget shares. Since t he pat t ern of consumpt ion varies great ly
by level of income, rat her t han using averages across all households, budget shares of households
in a neighborhood of t he poverty line are needed. Due t o small sample problems, however, it
income but t hat are yet not poor. In pract ice, I est imat e bi wit h t he average budget share
spent ondi erent agro-manufact ures (as in Table 1) by households in t he second quint ile of t he
dist ribut ion. To account for regional di erences in consumpt ion, I do t his separat ely for each
of t he six Argent ine regions, t he Great er Buenos Aires, Pampa, Nort heast , Nort hwest , Cuyo,
and Pat agonia.
T he changes in t he regional poverty lines are report ed in Table 2. As expect ed, t he induced
increase in t he export price of agro-manufact ured goods causes t he poverty line t o increase. In
t he lower bound, t he highest increases in t he poverty lines occur in Nort hwest and Nort heast
(3.8 and 3.6 percent , respect ively) and t he lowest increase is observed in t he Great er Buenos
Aires (2.8 percent ). In t he upper bound, t he highest increase of 6.8 percent is observed in
Nort hwest and t he lowest , 5 percent , in t he Great er Buenos Aires.
INSERT Table 2 Here
4.3
T he W age P r i ce-Elast i ci t i es
In order t o derive t he wage price-elast icit ies, I begin by laying out a simple model t hat illust rat es
how fact or prices are det ermined in general equilibrium (see Port o, 2003). Equilibrium wages
result from t he behavior of workers and rms: Workers supply labor and rms demand labor
and t he equilibrium wages result from equat ing t he supply and demand wage funct ions. In a
model wit h const ant ret urns t o scale, perfect compet it ion and as many t raded goods as fact ors,
wages are fully det ermined by t he prices of t he t raded goods, which are exogenous (See Dixit
and Norman, 1980, for det ails). Under t hese assumpt ions, I can writ e
where p is a vect or of prices, is a vect or of expendit ure shift ers (such as individual
charact erist ics) and is a vect or of pro t shift ers (variables t hat a ect t he decisions of rms
and t echnical change). T his relat ionship, which de nes t he wage price-elast icit ies (t hat is, t he
response of wages t o price changes), can be est imat ed wit h dat a on wages, prices of t raded
goods, individual charact erist ics and cont rols for t echnical change.
T he approach followed here at t empt s t o recover t he wage price-elast icit ies using household
surveys as a source of dat a on individual labor income. In Argent ina, t he necessary dat a are
available in t he Permanent Household Survey (Encuest a Permanent e de Hogares, EPH). T he
EPHs are labor market surveys wit h informat ion on wages, employment , hours worked, and
individual and household charact erist ics.
T he main problem wit h using survey dat a t o est imat e t he wage price-elast icit ies is t he lack
of price dat a at t he level of t he household. To deal wit h t his, I exploit t he t ime variat ion in
prices and surveys. In fact , t he EPH surveys are gat hered in May and Oct ober every year, so
t hat sixt een surveys from 1992 t o 1999 (two per year) can be used t o ident ify t he elast icit ies.
T his met hod adapt s t echniques generally used in demand analysis (Port o, 2006). Wolak (1996),
for inst ance, est imat es a syst em of demand elast icit ies using t he t ime variat ion in CPS surveys
in t he Unit ed St at es. Similarly, Deat on (1997) develops met hods t o est imat e demand elast icit ies
using regional variat ion in unit values. On wages, Ravallion (1990) est imat es wage responses t o
food prices in Bangladesh, while Goldberg and Tracy (2003) use CPS wage dat a and indust ry
speci c exchange rat es t o est imat e t he fact or income e ect s of exchange rat e movement s.
T he relat ionship between wages and prices in (6) is possibly di erent for di erent types
of labor because t he response of wages t o t he same price may depend, in principle, on skill
primary educat ion), semiskilled labor (comprising individuals having complet ed secondary
educat ion), and skilled labor (comprising workers holding college degrees). Let Ej be t he
1x3 jt h row of a mat rix E of dummy variables for t he t hree educat ional cat egories of labor. I
capt ure t hedi erent ial impact of prices on t he wages of individuals wit h di erent skills wit h
t he following model
(7) lnwj = + Ej lnpja + Ej + zj 0 + j;
where t he variable lnpj
a is t he logarit hm of t he int ernat ional price of agro-manufact ured
export s published by t he Argent ine Inst it ut e of St at ist ics and Census. In (7), is t he vect or
of wage-price elast icit ies, one for each of t he t hree educat ional cat egories. T he regression
model includes t he educat ional cat egories separat ely, wit h paramet er vect or (t he ret urns t o
schooling), and a vect or zj of individual charact erist ics like age (and age squared), gender and
marit al st at us. T he model also cont rols for t he prices of non-agricult ural export s and of import s
of consumpt ion and capit al goods. In a given t ime period, all households face t he same prices.
T he index j at t ached t o t he prices in (7) capt ures t he fact t hat I work wit h di erent surveys
in t ime periods wit h di erent prices. T he est imat ed wage-price elast icity for individual j wit h
respect t o pricepa is given by Ejb. T he error t erm is j. Since all households in a given
survey sample face t he same prices, I correct t he est imat ed st andard errors for clust ering e ect s
(Kloek, 1981).
In t he model speci ed in (7), equilibrium wages are det ermined by individual charact erist ics
(t o account for t he het erogeneity of labor supply) and by a vect or of export and import prices
wit h t he educat ional dummies, t hat capt ure t echnical change t hat may a ect wages di erent ly
by skill levels.
Table 3 report s t he wage price-elast icit ies obt ained from t he est imat ion of (7). To allow for
more exibility in t he model, I est imat e a di erent wage equat ion for each of t he six regions
of t he count ry. Overall, I nd t hat t he prices of export able agricult ural manufact ures impact
posit ively on wages for workers of every skill and in every region. In addit ion, not ice t hat
t he est imat ed elast icit ies do not vary much by skill levels or by regions. For unskilled labor,
wages respond by between 0.69 t o 0.71 percent in all regions, except in Nort heast , where t he
elast icity is slight ly higher, 0.85. For t he case of semiskilled labor, t he elast icit ies vary from
0.57 in Great Buenos Aires t o 0.81 in Nort heast . Finally, t he wages of skilled workers react
by a minimum elast icity of 0.41 in Pat agonia, t o 0.82-0.84 in Great Buenos Aires and Pampa.
T he nding t hat t he wages of skilled and unskilled workers react in t he same direct ion t o t hese
t rade liberalizat ion episodes is perfect ly consist ent wit h t he t heoret ical correlat ions between
fact or prices and product prices since I do not rest rict t he model t o display St olper-Samuelson
e ect s.
INSERT Table 3 Here
T he bot t om panel of Table 3 report s t he coe cient s of t he t ime t rends, int eract ed wit h
t he educat ional dummies (so as t o measure di erent types of t echnical change). T he t rend
coe cient s are posit ive and increasing in t he skill level. T hese cont rols t hus capt ure t he
increasing inequality in t he funct ional dist ribut ion of income, a charact erist ic feat ure of t he
5
Pover t y I m pact s
T he poverty analysis follows from a simple simulat ion: I compare t he fract ion of t he populat ion
t hat lived in poverty in 1998 wit h t he fract ion of t he populat ion t hat would be poor aft er t he
t rade reforms in t he developed world. T he head count rat io before t he reform is simply F (z).
T he head count rat io aft er t he foreign t rade reforms, eF (ez); is t he proport ion of individuals wit h
a simulat ed per equivalent adult income below t he updat ed poverty line ez. T here are two such
rat ios, one for each of t he lower and upper bounds for t he price changes of agro-manufact ured
export s. For each bound, I predict t he hypot het ical income of t he household by mult iplying
t he est imat ed wage price-elast icit ies (Table 3) wit h t he changes in prices (Table 1), t aking
int o account t he share of income derived from wages as in equat ion (4). I t hen compare t his
predict ed income wit h t he poverty line ez.
Result s are list ed in Table 4. Panel A displays t he poverty simulat ions under t he lower bound
for t he price changes and Panel B, under t he upper bound. T he main nding on t he paper
is t hat agricult ural market access would cause poverty t o decline in Argent ina (see columns
1 and 4| and 5| in Table 4). From a nat ional head count of 29.26 percent , t he poverty rat e
would decline t o 28.80 percent in t he lower bound or t o 28.28 percent in t he upper bound. T his
means t hat between 0.46 and 0.98 percent of t he populat ion would be moved out of poverty by
a set of foreign t rade reforms t hat raises agro-manufact ured export prices. T he act ual number
of individualsa ect ed is non-t rivial: from 161 t housand, in t he lower bound, t o 343 t housand
Argent ines, in t he upper bound, would abandon poverty as a result of higher market access.
INSERT Table 4 Here
impact s described in sect ion 3: t he right shift in t he poverty line and t he right shift in t he
dist ribut ion of income. T he t rade reforms generat ed in t he developed world imply higher prices
of consumpt ion goods and t hus lead t o a higher poverty line and t o higher poverty (column
2). Inst ead, higher prices of agro-manufact ured export goods cause wages t o increase and t hus
lead t o higher income and lower poverty (column 3). In t he case of Argent ina, a count ry wit h a
clear comparat ive advant age in agro-manufact ures, poverty would decline in t he end (column 4).
Not ice, however, t hat result s may bedi erent in count ries t hat are net import ers of t hese goods
(so t hat t he adjust ment of t he poverty line would produce larger impact s t han t he adjust ment
of nominal wage income).
Poverty would decline in all regions. T he largest poverty declines would be observed in
Nort heast and Cuyo: in t he lower bound for price changes, t he head count would decrease by
0.70-0.86 percent age point s; in t he upper bound, t he reduct ions in t he head count would be of
1.62 and 1.23 percent age point s, respect ively. In Pampa, Nort hwest , and Great er Buenos Aires,
t he decline in poverty would be mild, around 0.30 percent age point s in t he lower bound, and
between 0.63 and 0.93 in t he upper bound. Poverty alleviat ion would be lowest in Pat agonia,
t he regions wit h t he lowest init ial head count s.
T he int uit ion for t hese result s is st raight forward. On average, labor income would react
more t han consumer prices. As a result , t he real income of households near t he poverty lines
would increase and t he head count would decrease. To underst and t he regional pat t ern of
changes in t he poverty count , not ice t hat , rst , t here are only small di erences in t he changed
in t he regional poverty lines, but , second, t hat unskilled labor is more abundant in regions like
Nort heast , Nort hwest and Cuyo. Since unskilled workers are more likely t o be poor in t he rst
6
Conclusions
T his paper has examined t he poverty impact s of increased agricult ural market access for
Argent ine export s. Market access could be secured by a set of foreign agricult ural t rade
policies, such as t he eliminat ion of agricult ural subsidies, t radet ari s, and non-t ari barriers.
In t his paper, market access is measured by est imat ing t he response of t he int ernat ional price
of agro-manufact ured export s t o such t rade reforms.
Based on est imat es from t he available lit erat ure, a lower and an upper bound for t he price
responses have been adopt ed. T hese price changes have two measurable e ect s on Argent ine
households: an e ect on consumer prices of food it ems, and an e ect on wages. Higher prices of
agro-manufact ured export s would make t he food basket more expensive, which works t owards
increases in poverty, but would boost labor demand and wages, which works t owards poverty
alleviat ion. In t he end, I have found t hat t he labor income e ect is higher t han t he poverty line
e ect , and poverty would decrease as a result (by between 0.46 and 0.98 percent age point s).
It is oft en been argued t hat market access t o int ernat ional agricult ural market would improve
living condit ions in developing count ries. One lesson from t his paper is t hat t his argument is not
necessarily t rue since higher household income can be outweighed by higher consumer prices.
T his nding is consist ent wit h t he claim t hat , in t he presence of agricult ural t rade liberalizat ion,
net food export ers like Argent ina st and t o win, while net food import ers lose. In Argent ina,
a count ry wit h a clear comparat ive advant age in agricult ure, I have found t hat t he poverty
R efer ences
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N ot es
1T he baseline period t o carry out t he poverty simulat ions is Oct ober 1998. T his choice allows me t o abst ract
from t he impact s of t he 2001 crisis. My analysis is not about poverty and t he recent nancial crisis in Argent ina; see Mckenzie (2004) and his references for st udies on t his t opic. My object ive is t o simulat e a t rade policy reform along t he lines of t he WT O Doha Round negot iat ions.
2To simplify t he analysis, I assume t hat t here is no change in unemployment and I do not measure t he
impact s of changes in scal revenue via t rade t axes.
3Since Argent ina has a clear comparat ive advant age in primary product s and in agro-manufact ures, I focus
on export prices rat her t han on import prices. T he share of agro-manufact ures in t ot al export s is around 17 percent in t he 2000s; t he share of food import s is inst ead close t o 3 percent . See Brambilla, Galiani, and Port o (2009).
4T he average t ari on Meat is low in t he Unit ed St at es, around 2.7 percent , but it is high in Canada and
t he European Union, around 23.5 percent and 55.9 percent , respect ively. Dairy Product s (chapt er 4) face an average t ari of 8.3 percent in t he U.S., 190.3 percent in Canada, and 55.2 percent in t he E.U. Import s of Oils and Fat s (chapt er 15) are subject t o an average t ari of 4.9 percent in t he U.S., 10.2 percent in Canada and 15.5 percent in t he E.U.
5In t his paper, I assume t hat t he change in int ernat ional prices is fully t ransmit t ed t o t he domest ic economy.
See Nicit a (2009) for an at t empt t o int roduce imperfect pass-t hrough in measuring t he welfare impact s of t rade liberalizat ion.
6T he CGE lit erat ure on price changes from agricult ural liberalizat ion is large. I adopt t he price changes in
Price Changes Economet ric
[image:22.612.216.409.85.256.2]Est imat ion CGE Oils and Fat s 8.7 2.2 Beef 17.3 10.4 Dairy Product s 17.8 8.3 Beverages 14.7 -Mills Product s 17.4 -Sugar 16.4 9.0 Average 15.9 8.7 Not es: percent age change in int ernat ional prices caused by a reform t hat eliminat es all t ari prot ect ion and all domest ic support on agricult ure in developed count ries. (1) Hoekman et al. (2004); (2) Beghin et al. (2002).
Poverty Lines
before lower bound increase upper bound increase (1) (2) (%) (3) (%) Great Buenos Aires 5.083 5.111 2.8 5.133 5.0 Pampa 4.983 5.015 3.2 5.039 5.6 Nort hEast 4.961 4.997 3.6 5.022 6.1 Nort hWest 4.936 4.974 3.8 5.004 6.8 Cuyo 4.946 4.977 3.1 5.000 5.4 Pat agonia 5.031 5.061 3.0 5.083 5.2 Not es. (1): average budget of households in t he second quint ile (Household Expendit ure Survey). (2): povert y lines (in logs) as of Oct ober 1998 (I ndec, 2002).
[image:23.612.117.507.89.225.2](3): updat ed povert y lines (in logs) induced by t he lower bound price change. (4): updat ed povert y lines (in logs) induced by t he upper bound price change.
Great Nort hwest
Buenos Aires Pampa Nort heast & Cuyo Pat agonia Unskilled 0.71 0.71 0.85 0.69 0.69
(0.13) (0.10) (0.11) (0.14) (0.15) SemiSkilled 0.57 0.73 0.81 0.74 0.60
(0.12) (0.10) (0.15) (0.18) (0.19) Skilled 0.82 0.84 0.58 0.74 0.41
(0.23) (0.16) (0.19) (0.21) (0.28) Trends Unskilled 0.009 0.022 0.027 0.015 0.018
(0.008) (0.004) (0.005) (0.006) (0.009) Trends Semiskilled 0.026 0.031 0.032 0.024 0.023
(0.006) (0.004) (0.005) (0.007) (0.007) Trends Skilled 0.038 0.041 0.047 0.036 0.027
[image:24.612.113.514.275.483.2](0.014) (0.008) (0.007) (0.009) (0.009) Not es: clust er-correct ed st andard errors wit hin parent hesis. Signi cance levels: * , 10 percent ; * * , 5 percent , * * * , 1 percent . T he log of wages is regressed on t he log of t he prices of agricult ural export s. T he regression includes also a t rend int eract ed wit h educat ion dummies (t o capt ure t echnological change), educat ional dummies, import prices, and individual cont rols such as age, age squared, marit al st at us and gender dummies.
Init ial Ex-Post Poverty Rat es Tot al Poverty Adjust ing Adjust ing Poverty
Rat e Poverty line Income Tot al Changes (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) A) Lower Bound for Price Change
Nat ional 29.26 30.46 27.56 28.80 -0.46 Buenos Aires 23.32 24.09 22.31 23.02 -0.30 Pampa 27.30 28.23 25.71 26.98 -0.32 Nort heast 36.36 37.77 34.00 35.50 -0.86 Nort hwest 40.55 42.48 38.70 40.24 -0.31 Cuyo 27.48 28.95 25.53 26.78 -0.70 Pat agonia 18.28 19.11 17.38 18.06 -0.22 B) Upper Bound for Price Change
Nat ional 29.26 31.30 26.38 28.28 -0.98 Buenos Aires 23.32 24.58 21.58 22.56 -0.76 Pampa 27.30 29.01 24.77 26.37 -0.93 Nort heast 36.36 38.88 32.07 34.74 -1.62 Nort hwest 40.55 43.62 37.25 39.92 -0.63 Cuyo 27.48 29.89 24.32 26.25 -1.23 Pat agonia 18.28 19.60 16.36 17.84 -0.44 Not es: Povert y impact s of t rade liberalizat ion in t he developed world. T he lower bound for t he price change of A rgent ine export s of agro-manufact ures is 7.5 percent ; t he upper bound is 15.4 percent .
Column (1): init ial head count in Oct ober 1998 (I ndec, 2002).
[image:25.612.100.532.186.533.2]Column (2): Ex-post povert y rat e of allowing adj ust ment s in t he povert y line while keeping nominal income const ant . Column (3): Ex-post povert y rat e of allowing adj ust ment s in nominal wage while keeping t he povert y line const ant . Column (4): Ex-post povert y rat e of allowing adj ust ment s in t he povert y line and in nominal household income. Column (5): Overall povert y changes (4)-(1).
SERIE DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO DEL CEDLAS
Todos los Documentos de Trabajo del CEDLAS están disponibles en formato electrónico en <www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/cedlas>.
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Nro. 7 (Marzo, 2004). Monserrat Bustelo y Leonardo Lucchetti. "La Pobreza en Argentina: Perfil, Evolución y Determinantes Profundos (1996, 1998 Y 2001)". Nro. 6 (Febrero, 2004). Hernán Winkler. "Estructura de Edades de la Fuerza Laboral
y Distribución del Ingreso: Un Análisis Empírico para la Argentina".
Nro. 5 (Enero, 2004). Pablo Acosta y Leonardo Gasparini. "Capital Accumulation, Trade Liberalization and Rising Wage Inequality: The Case of Argentina".
Nro. 4 (Diciembre, 2003). Mariana Marchionni y Leonardo Gasparini. "Tracing Out the Effects of Demographic Changes on the Income Distribution. The Case of Greater Buenos Aires".
Nro. 3 (Noviembre, 2003). Martín Cicowiez. "Comercio y Desigualdad Salarial en Argentina: Un Enfoque de Equilibrio General Computado".
Nro. 2 (Octubre, 2003). Leonardo Gasparini. "Income Inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evidence from Household Surveys".
