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THEMATIC SESSIONS DGS VI – JOLATE XIX (May 8‐11, 2018)
Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, UNED (Spain)
Tuesday, May 8
11:30‐12:30 Room: Salón de Actos
Title. Growth and Welfare
Chair: José Luis Calvo
Crecimiento y recaudación: una explicación a una relación no lineal
Presenter: Daniel Velázquez‐Orihuela, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, Mexico Coauthor: Zeus S. Hernández‐Veleros, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, Mexico
Abstract. Nuestro interés es estimar y explicar la relación entre la recaudación impositiva y el producto interno bruto estatales de la república mexicana, en el periodo 2003‐2014, para ello calcularemos las elasticidades impositivas mediante un modelo panel de pendientes diferenciales dicótomas; así como construiremos un modelo de salarios de eficiencia en un escenario de equilibrio restringido por demanda, basado en la masa salarial y en el Impuesto Sobre la Nómina (ISN), el cual ofrece una explicación teórica de las razones por las cuales puede haber una relación directa o inversa entre la masa impositiva y el producto generado.
Palabras clave: Impuestos; Datos panel; Salarios de eficiencia.
Are Social Exclusion and Poverty Measures Referred to the same People? A Comparison Using Spanish Data
Presenter: José Luis Calvo González, UNED, Spain Coauthors: Cristina Sánchez Figueroa, UNED, Spain
Pedro Cortiñas Vázquez, UNED, Spain
Abstract. One of the targets of Europe’s growth strategy (Europe 2020) is “reduction of poverty by aiming to lift at least 20 million people out of the risk of poverty or social exclusion”. How to identify those people considered poor/socially excluded is one of the most important questions discussed in the specific literature.
Authors have usually employed two different methodologies to categorize them: poverty –measured using monetary variables‐; and deprivation –considering qualitative indicators‐. Since both techniques try to compute the same concept they should capture, at least theoretically, the same collective. But for many authors results don’t match.
EUROSTAT combines both methodologies and defines a multidimensional index taking into account three indicators to estimate poor/deprived population: people at risk‐of‐poverty after social transfers; severely materially deprived people and people living in households with very low work intensity. We concentrate on the first two indicators and analyze the relationships between them using the Spanish Survey on Living Conditions 2010 in order to test if they identify the same group. Following EUROSTAT methodology we found that 2,590,148 Spanish households can be considered poor and 504,227 are deprived. But only 262,280 are, at the same time, poor and deprived. In order to improve deprivation index we substitute EUROSTAT methodology by Fuzzy method but results do not get better. Additionally, we test both deprivation indicators with households’ income distribution (percentiles) and find very significant inconsistencies: some deprived families belong to the highest income percentiles and some variables used to work out the indexes have sample problems. The main conclusion of the article is that in order to calculate a
2 poverty multidimensional index it is really important to analyze very carefully social exclusion variables and indexes before using them to classify people as deprived, at least in the Spanish case.
Keywords: deprivation, poverty, index
Precarización del empleo y concentración del ingreso: dos caras de una misma moneda
Presenter: Daniel Velázquez‐Orihuela, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Hidalgo, Mexico
Abstract. Se construye un modelo de salarios de eficiencia en un escenario de equilibrio restringido por demanda con la finalidad de explicar cómo la precarización del empleo provoca una mayor concentración del ingreso a favor de las ganancias.
Palabras claves: Distribución del ingreso, precarización del empleo, salarios de eficiencia
11:30‐12:30 Room: Sáez Torrecilla
Title. Financial Planning Throughout Life: Savings, Pensions, Employment and Other Personal Objectives
Chair: Teresa Herrador Alcaide
Financial Planning for Retirement. Empirical Study with Three Spanish Samples
Presenter: Gabriela TopaCantisano, UNED, Spain Coauthor: Encarna Valero, UNED, Spain
Abstract. This paper tests an integrated model of financial planning for retirement (FPR), with three samples of Spanish workers aged between 30 and 63. Overall, the three model dimensions‐capacity, willingness and opportunities to plan and save‐ show a significant association with financial planning for retirement. The moderator role of age in the relationships between antecedents and financial planning was tested.
Consistent with our hypothesis, younger participants showed a greater level of FPR if they were characterized by a high level of education. The interaction between both age and Psychological preparation for retirement and Retirement goals clarity failed to reach statistical significance. We discuss how financial planning effectiveness could be increased based on the results of Importance‐Performance Map Analyses.
Keywords: Financial planning, Retirement, Age as a moderate role in financial planning
Savings for Retirement Pension in Spain: The Financial Planning of Retirement
Presenter: Montserrat Hernández‐Solís, UNED, Spain Coauthors: Inmaculada Pra Martos, UNED, Spain
Teresa Herrador‐Alcaide, UNED, Spain
Abstract. This paper presents the current situation of the contributory pension system in Spain, by analysing its pillars, main ideas on which it is based as well as an analysis of the possible bankruptcy that we find ourselves in the Social Security system, based on a delivery system. This paper sets out the bankruptcy situation to which our contributory pension system is heading, making an exposition of this system with that of capitalization, already has been validated in certain countries, such as Sweden or Chile. We will analyse the current situation of savings for retirement in Spain, previous reflections as well as different alternatives for saving so that each contributor has its own capitalization system which is complementary to the contributory pension. The choice of these alternatives by the contributors will be based on a set of factors such as profitability, risk, commissions, liquidity and taxation.
Keywords: Contributory Pension System, Savings for Retirement, Financial Planning
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Behavioral Biases and their Influence on Long‐Term Savings in Spain
Presenter: Susana De los Ríos Sastre, Universidad Pontificia de Comillas de Madrid, Spain Coauthors: Lorenzo De Benito Lobo, Universidad Pontificia de Comillas de Madrid, Spain Laura Lazcano Benito, Universidad Pontificia de Comillas de Madrid, Spain
Abstract. There is a great concern about the sustainability of the Spanish public pension system, because it could likely be unable to meet all its obligations in the near future. Nowadays, there are many institutions that warn of the need to increase the long‐term savings of the Spanish population. However, it seems that the existence of certain behavioural biases may justify the difficulty of many people to save autonomously for retirement age, especially if they do not have enough financial education and a great discipline in personal finances. This paper analyses the main biases behind a non‐rational behaviour of individuals regarding long‐term savings and suggest how to mitigate their effect on decision‐making. Likewise, the initial conclusions drawn from a brief study about pension plans and asset managers’ behaviour.
Keywords: Financial Behaviour, Long‐Term Savings, Financial Education
Age‐Related Decrease in Entrepreneurial Intention in Spain: Lost Opportunities for Bridge Employment?
Presenter: Ana Laguía, UNED, Spain
Coauthor: Juan Antonio Moriano, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Entrepreneurship has a recognised impact on economic growth, innovation, and employment.
Drawing on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB, Azjen, 1991), this study analyses the relationship between age and entrepreneurial intention, both directly and mediated by attitudes towards entrepreneurship, subjective norms and entrepreneurial self‐efficacy. The Entrepreneurial Intention Questionnaire (EIQ) was administered to a sample of 2333 participants (54.7% females) aged between 18 and 64 years. Age correlated significantly and negatively with entrepreneurial intention, attitudes and subjective norms. Using partial least squares technique, the results supported the proposed model, since the influence of age was mediated by the three components of the TPB. Nevertheless, the explanatory power of age was low. The sample was divided into five groups (G1: 18‐24 years, 411 participants; G2: 25‐34 years, 836 participants; G3: 35‐44 years, 596 participants; G4: 45‐54 years, 376 participants; G5: 55‐64 years, 114 participants). Younger participants (< 35 years) presented a higher entrepreneurial intention, a more positive attitude towards entrepreneurship as well as higher scores in subjective norms. These results suggest that age has a particular influence on less positive attitudes towards entrepreneurship and less perceived support from reference groups to become an entrepreneur. In future studies we propose to include an additional measure about subjective age.
Keywords: Entrepreneurial Intention, Theory of Planned behaviour, Attitudes, Age
15:00‐16:00 Room: Sala 1B
Doctoral Colloquium. Challenges in Business
(Web conference session)Chair: Ainhoa Rodríguez Oromendía
Efficiency and Competitiveness of the Private Sector as a National Economy Sustainability Conditioning
(Web conference presentation)
Presenter: Tito Ondo Ela Medja, PhD. Student UNED, Spain Coauthors: Ainhoa Rodríguez Oromendía, UNED, Spain Pilar Alberca Oliver, UNED, Spain
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Abstract. The 2007 economic and financial crisis, causes a strong recession worldwide. Currently, the large industrialized economies are already growing in a sustainable manner, thanks to an improvement in the efficiency and competitiveness of the business sector. The financial sector has a key role in this regard.
However, the economies of most of developing countries are not experiencing this evolution, since in many cases they are characterized by extreme poverty. In these cases, many of the financial instruments of the most developed countries are not useful to alleviate this situation. In this sense, one of the ways used to improve the economy of these countries is the use of microfinances.
This essay intends to make an analysis aimed at deepening the degree of efficiency of the financial sector by analyzing the microfinance companies in Equatorial Guinea and its impact on the competitiveness of the business sector.
Keywords: efficiency, competitiveness, sustainable, poverty, microfinances
Measuring Customer Experience Quality in the Airline Industry, an Empirical Approach (
Web conference presentation)
Presenter: Samuel Goyzueta, PhD. Student UNED, Spain; Universidad Católica Boliviana "San Pablo", Bolivia
Coauthor: Ainhoa Rodríguez Oromendía, UNED, Spain
Abstract. This investigation seeks to measure the customer experience quality in the airline industry and the way the experience, trust and loyalty in the brand, as well the customer engagement, affects it. According to the literature, the term “customer experience quality” is not completely understood and there is no a clear and precise form of measuring it in this specific sector.
Keywords: customer experience, airline industry
Creation of Competitive Advantages through Sustainable Marketing Strategies in the Restoration Sector
(Web conference presentation)
Presenter: Ángel Leonardo Ávila Castañeda, PhD. Student UNED, Spain Coauthor: Ainhoa Rodríguez Oromendía, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Sustainable Marketing allows different companies and sectors of the economy to establish competitive advantages that guarantee better operational efficiency, cost reduction, attraction, retention and customer loyalty, among other benefits and in turn contribute to the goals established for the Sustainable Development Objectives (SDO). One of the economic sectors that can benefit most from sustainable marketing is restoration: many restaurants offer packaged food for consumption within the establishment itself, or through the home service modality. For this, they almost always use plastic containers, generating a harmful impact on the environment. Through this research, we intend to know the motivations of these establishments to continue with these practices; identify the different alternatives for the change of these containers, which are established as good practices to improve the social, environmental and economic impact.
Keywords: Sustainable Marketing, competitive advantages, Sustainable Development Objectives (SDO), restaurants, packaged foods.
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16:30‐17:30 Room: Salón de Actos
Title. Network and Institutions
Chair: Fernando Barreiro Pereira
Beliefs and Institutions
Presenter: Romel Brun, San Pablo Catholic University, Bolivia
Abstract. In this paper we study from an empirical point of view the causal relationship between beliefs and property right institution. We first identified a set of cultural beliefs that could be correlated with the variable of protection of private property right. As a second step we develop a methodology for measuring these beliefs. Finally, we follow the literature regarding the determinants of property rights and we include our belief variable into a standard economic model to see if beliefs could explain the variability of the quality of property rights institution across countries. We found that Christian beliefs as a proxy of our variable beliefs has a causal effect on the level of the protection of property rights. These results are in line with the literature regarding the relationship between cultural beliefs and institutions.
Consensus and Equilibria in the Presence of Self‐Interest and Conformity in Social Groups
Presenter: Emiliano Álvarez, Universidad de la República, Uruguay Coauthor: Juan Gabriel Brida, Universidad de la República, Uruguay
Abstract. This paper analyses the decision‐making processes of heterogeneous agents, when both individual preferences and group actions are taken into account. Under the assumptions of certain topologies of interactions and assuming cognitive and informational restrictions, an agent‐based model is introduced to analyze the evolution of decisions over time. The results of the simulations show how social pressures can determine the relationship between individual and social preferences. Societies whose agents have strong individual preferences have outcomes with fragmentation processes that generates a higher number of groups. A minor importance of the individual preferences, results in a smaller proportion of individuals maximizing their individual utility. As well, the quantity of options available and the initial proportion of each alternative are significant variables to determine the proportion of individuals selecting a particular option.
In addition, the study analyses the existence of equilibrium of the dynamical system. To this aim, the notion of metastable equilibria is introduced and linked to the dynamic analysis.
Game Theory Applications to Car Insurance Industry
Presenter: José Manuel Brell Doval, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain Coauthors: Alberto Muñoz Cabanes, UNED, Spain
Alfonso Herrero de Egaña y Espinosa de los Monteros, UNED, Spain
Abstract. The car insurance industry faces many challenges, many of which can be analyzed through Games Theory. The research objective was to analyze three of them, using Game Theory as an analysis and forecasting tool. Therefore, three practical applications have been developed in order to differentiate between them both in the business objective and in the type of games that represent them. Specifically, the potential improvement of loss ratio of the Fully Comprehensive Insurance without excess modality has been analyzed through games with asymmetric information, the problem of setting compensation modules through bi‐ and n‐personal games and the potential implementation of a loss ratio database through cooperative games. After the development of the applications it has been possible to identify solutions to
6 each one of the business problems raised and verify the flexibility, usefulness and applicability of the Game Theory, as well as its own ability to anticipate the result of situations, at first glance, uncertain.
Keywords: Car Insurance, Game Theory, Cooperative Games
16:30‐17:30 Room: Sáez Torrecilla
Title. Challenges and Opportunities in Business
Chair: Pilar Alberca Oliver
Choosing a Degree: Tourism or Business Administration? An Empirical Study about Selection Bias Identified in the Tourism Job Offers
Presenter: Eva Ballesté‐Morillas, UNED, Spain Coauthor: Teresa Nogueras Lozano, UNED, Spain
Abstract. In Spain the tourism sector represents more than 10% of annual GDP being his most notable contribution. However, in the last years, it seems the students preferences are more focus on business science against tourism degree. On the other hand, companies complain of not having qualified people in a sector as demanding as it is tourism. Noting that the majority of jobs in the tourism sector are reflected in job offers that prompted a profile in business administration or similar (not been specified explicitly the words “degree in tourism”), this leads us to think that this may be a discouragement factor to choose to study the degree of tourism. The objective of this study is to reveal if the choice of business science degree instead of tourism one, is correlated to the literature of publication of job offers for tourism sector.
Keywords: business science studies, tourism degree, job offers
Performance in Events Industry: A Benchmarking Analysis
Presenter: Pilar Alberca Oliver, UNED, Spain Coauthors: Laura Parte, UNED, Spain
Ainhoa Rodríguez Oromendía, UNED, Spain
Abstract. The aim of this study is to determine the performance in events industry with a particular focus on events planning process and benchmarking analysis. Methodologically this study adopts several nonparametric models in order to measure the comparative efficiency of events industry. Based on the results, the study identify which events are more efficient and provides conclusions and managerial implications that will help exhibitors to design their pre‐show planning process.
Keywords: Performance measurement; Events planning; Benchmarking analysis
Business Innovation: Key Element in the New Productive Model
Presenter: Laura Rodríguez Fernández, UNED, Spain Coauthor: Pilar Alberca Oliver, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Nowadays, one of the main objectives of companies is to compete looking for a maximum profitability. There are companies anchored in the rules of the industrial age. Others, more innovative, have chosen to evolve and adapt to the new productive model and their new conditions. Derived from this new mentality arises the concept of business innovation that has been gaining strength in recent years.
7 Companies seek a balance between the three pillars of business innovation: economic, social and environmental. In this study, we will focus our analysis on the concept of business innovation, explaining what is an innovative company; the benefits derived from it and how innovation helps to development new productive model.
Keywords: Business innovation, new productive model, business profitability,
Improving the Competitive Intelligence in the Spanish Companies: A Potential Tool to Compete
Presenter: Héctor Fernando Izquierdo Triana, Universidad Pontificia de Comillas‐ICADE, Spain
Abstract. The Spanish business environment associates the function of competitive intelligence (CI) to customer‐focused marketing area. The fact that competitive intelligence is not seen as a potential tool in terms of security, technological vigilance, and strategic vision shows a source of weaknesses for the Spanish companies inside a global competitive world. This investigation provides evidence regarding the relevance of the internal audit processes carried out with the objective of identifying areas of improvement focus on increase the competitive skills of the companies.
Keywords: internal audit, competitive intelligence, strategic vision.
16:30‐17:30 Room: Sala 1B
Title. Research Proposals in Business
Chair: Ainhoa Rodríguez Oromendía
Corporate Governance and Financial Sanctions: A First Approximation
Presenter: Eduardo Gómez‐Escalonilla, PhD. Student UNED, Spain
Abstract. Financial institutions are frequently involved on litigations and financial sanctions. Several empirical studies show that financial penalties impact on performance and systemic risk exposure in financial institutions. The paper attempts to explore the relationship between financial sanctions and Corporate Governance variables using a sample of international banks. The paper concludes with the expected results.
Keywords: corporate governance, financial sanctions, international banks
Impact of the Digital Marketing Transformation on the Spanish Retail Banking Industry
Presenter: Carlos Alberto Espinosa Fernández, PhD. Student UNED, Spain Coauthor: Ainhoa Rodríguez Oromendía, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Preview on the doctoral research that is being carried out on the way in which the traditional Spanish retail banking industry, fundamentally applying digital marketing policies, is being able to respond to the new requirements of the clients in a market in deep transformation and subjected to the competitive pressures generated by the two new financial operators (Fintech and 100% online banking). The Spanish model is being compared with the equivalent one in the United States, considering the richness and maturity of this Country in terms of their financial agents and the digital ecosystem in which they evolve.
Keywords: digital marketing, banking industry, Spanish
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La innovación docente como atributo de posicionamiento en la universidad privada: análisis de su influencia sobre la satisfacción, lealtad y prescripción del alumno
Presenter: Eduardo García Gómez, Universidad San Pablo CEU, PhD. Student UNED, Spain
Abstract. As competition in university offer in Spain increases, particularly amongst private centers, it becomes essential an in‐depth analysis of the elements influencing the competitive advantage. Beyond factors such as tuitions, proximity or reputation, the student experience with the teaching body brings additional subjective factors such as satisfaction, loyalty or the prescription, for consideration. Teaching innovation, applied in recent years in a wide range of format and with limited standardization, is a trend in our classrooms led by the European Framework of Higher Education and also by teaching institutions aiming for differentiation.
This article analyses how teaching innovation is currently applied in Spanish private universities and how this innovation is influencing aspects, described in marketing, such as satisfaction, loyalty or prescription, which ultimately, may intervene in the results of private university institutions.
Keywords: Teaching innovation, satisfaction, loyalty, prescription, university marketing, private university.
Trade Shows: Current Researches and Future Challenges
Presenter: Ainhoa Rodríguez Oromendía, UNED, Spain Coauthors: Laura Parte, UNED, Spain
Pilar Alberca Oliver, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Trade shows are temporary events that take place at different recurring intervals, where new products and services are presented. In the globalized economy, trade shows represent an important tool not only for brand exposure or for promoting the quality of products and services, but also as a contribution to urban development related to alternative activities such as hotels, restaurants and other tourism activities. This paper presents a literature review of recent trade shows studies. Adopting a critical perspective, the paper explains the main research questions in the trade shows industry and the ways to solve them. Finally, the paper highlights the main challenges and provides insights for future researches.
Keywords: trade shows industry, literature review, unexplored questions, challenges and future researches
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Wednesday, May 9
11:30‐12:30 Room: Salón de Actos
Title. Applications to the Theory of the Firm
Chair: Alberto A. Álvarez‐López
Super‐Replication in Economies with Imperfect Financial Markets
Presenter: Daniel Jaar, Universidad de Chile
Abstract. This article proves equilibrium existence in an infinite horizon economy with incomplete markets.
Agents may trade finite or infinitely lived real assets in both zero and positive net supply, and are subject to borrowing constraints preventing them from engaging into Ponzi schemes. Upper bounds for prices of assets in zero net supply are obtained by means of recent techniques developed in the literature of finite horizon economies with financial segmentation. Trading constraints are also introduced as to make the model compatible with financial segmentation. Uniform impatience is not a necessary assumption for the results.
A Model for the Optimal Selection of Lenders
Presenter: Alberto A. Álvarez‐López, UNED, Spain
Coauthor: Inmaculada Rodríguez‐Puerta, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Spain
Abstract. Most private placements are offered to a small number of select investors, at a fixed rate that can be set by the issuer. In this paper, a model is developed that enables the estimation of the interest rate to be offered to each investor, in the two styles of solicitation of investors (simultaneous and sequential), so that the issuer can obtain the desired financing at minimum cost. Specifically, in the simultaneous case, we provide the subgroup of investors that supply sufficient funds and the common optimal rate to be offered to all investors; in the sequential case, we determine the preference order under which the negotiation should be carried out and the particular optimal rate to be offered to each investor. As a conclusion, it is found that not only does the sequential solicitation imply a financing cost that is lower than or equal to the simultaneous solicitation but it also implies a greater or equal number of investors.
11:30‐12:30 Room: Sáez Torrecilla
Title. New trends in Communication and Marketing
Chair: Mª Dolores Reina Paz
Communication of Sustainability through Websites in Hotel Chains
Presenter: Claudia Sevilla‐Sevilla, UNED, Spain Coauthors: Mª Dolores Reina‐Paz, UNED, Spain Ramón Rufín‐Moreno, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Today most hotel marketing is conducted online. The websites of major hotel companies offer little information about their sustainability performance. An exploratory analysis of 50 websites of hotel chains was carried out. Results offers clear proof of the little importance that hotel companies still give to an
10 aspect that, given the sector’s specific characteristics and increasing consumer awareness and concern, should be considered another core factor in their mission, corporate strategies, and communication goals.
This paper thus contributes additional evidence of the current marketing myopia with regard to sustainability and the environment.
Keywords: Hotels, sustainability, environmental management, websites, communication, marketing
Digital Tourism in the EU: Analysis of the Dynamics of Consumers Adoption & Usage of the Internet in E‐Tourism
Presenter: Luis Manuel Ruiz‐Gómez, UNED, Spain Coauthors: Julio Navío‐Marco, UNED, Spain
Luisa Fernanda Rodríguez Hevia, Universidad Alfonso X el Sabio, Spain
Abstract. This communication examines the effects of the new e‐citizens’ digital skills and competence in their behaviour as e‐tourists. It analyses how European digital citizens behave in the field of digital tourism, how this affects the tourism area, and whether there are any differences of a geographical nature (depending on the degree of development) within Europe. The data utilised comes from the “European Union Survey on ICT Usage in Households and by Individuals 2015”. The findings show the most important characteristics of the users who have purchased goods and services associated with tourism via the Internet, such as holiday accommodation and other services for travelling, a distinction being made between the areas of the EU on the basis of whether they are more developed or less developed from an economic perspective. We have observed that by far the most influential factor for these e‐Tourism activities is having made purchases via the Internet in the past 12 months, although other factors are also identified.
Differences have been detected between the more developed and less developed areas of Europe, which could indicate a digital divide (in this case in the area of e‐Tourism). Therefore, the results indicate divergent behaviour patterns not only affecting digital travel and accommodation management but also in how ICTs are managed, as well as divergent trends in different geographical areas of the European Union.
Analogic Models to Transfer Know‐How in Digital Marketing
Presenter: Jesús Manuel Plaza Llorente, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Nowdays we are exploring a new disruptive paradigm of Marketing 4.0 to afford digital strategies.
Some analogic models let us transfer knowledge from science and technology to innovate digital marketing, in same way as we are selling new and improved products and services from classical marketing framework of 4Ps (marketing of digital innovation).
Keywords: Digital marketing, models to transfer of know‐how.
Innovative Direction of Final Year Projects in the Area of Marketing
Presenter
:
Gema Juberías, UNED, SpainAbstract. It has been analyzed the 2014‐2017 innovative direction of Final Year Projects (FYPs) in the area of Marketing and Market Research in the UNED using a mixed methodology which is both qualitative and quantitative.
The FYPs analyzed present an innovative component which is in line with the average level of the Spanish industry as a whole (16% tackled marketing planning or research into products and services of medium and high intensity in R & D).
When analyzing the variables which define academic quality, we emphasize that when the project presented obtains solid conclusions and has a clear practical application, a well presented FYP is then highlighted, including its presentation and drafting. Thus, the university tutors should boost the innovative direction of the proposals and make the FYP a teaching instrument for innovation in marketing matters.
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16:30‐17:30 Room: Salón de Actos
Title. Applications of Game Theory
Chair: Alberto Pinto
Controlling the Controller. A Dynamic Model of Corruption
Presenter: Filipe Martins, Universidade de Porto, Portugal and LIAAD INESC Coauthors: Elvio Accinelli, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí, México Jorge Oviedo, Universidad Nacional de San Luis and CONICET, Argentina Alberto Pinto, Universidade do Porto, Portugal and LIAAD INESC
Luis Quintas, Universidad Nacional de San Luis and CONICET, Argentina
Abstract. The aim of this paper is to try to answer the question of who controls the controller when the controller (interpreted as the government) supposed to prevent the spread of corruption, can itself be corrupted. We introduce a normal‐form game between a government (that is elected by universal suffrage of citizens) and officials where both can choose between a corrupt or honest behaviour. In democratic societies, citizens play an important role since they might have intolerance to corruption that is reflected in voting power and thus exert a democratic influence in the maintainance or not of a government in functions.
We build an evolutionary version of the game by means of the replicator dynamics and we analyse and fully characterize the possible trajectories of the system according to an index of intolerance to corruption and other relevant quantities of the model. We show that politically active citizens with an high index of intolerance to corruption can effectively prevent the spreading of corruption. However, when intolerance is not high enough, corruption can be sustaining, either through cycles of diminishing and increasing corruption reflected in political cycles and extreme situations such as dictatorships and situations where democracy is undermined.
Keywords: Corruption; Democracy; Game Theory; Evolutionary Game Theory; Dynamical Stability.
Optimal Strategies for International Expansion with and without Making Dumping
Presenter: Alberto Pinto, University of Porto, Portugal
Coauthor: José Martins, Polytechnic Institute of Leiria, Portugal
Abstract. In this work, we consider an economic model in which one firm has the monopoly of a certain market in its own country and divides another market in a foreign country with a firm of the foreign country.
We study two possible strategies for the firm that is selling in both countries to increase its profit: the firm increases the production quantities to decrease the selling prices in both countries and avoid dumping; the firm only increases the production quantity to decrease the selling price in the foreign country and makes dumping. To do our analysis we use a duopoly model and we characterize the parameters that define the most profitable strategies.
Quantifying Information in Repeated Coordination Games
Presenter: Eduardo Oliva, Ph. Student UNED, Spain
Abstract. Coordination games are of interest on several areas of economics as production [2], search [3], public goods provision [6] and fundraising [6,7]. Many experiments have emphasized the role that
12 communication among agents plays to achieve an equilibrium. However, some experimental results were surprising [4,5], since the equilibria the agents reached were usually Pareto‐dominated. By using methods borrowed from information theory [9] and physics [8,1] we will demonstrate that even if each agent receives the same message, the information conveyed by it depends in the action played by the agent. Thus, some agents receive more information than others and this asymmetry can explain the observed results. Finally, to test this hypothesis, we propose a modification of a classical experiment, trying to induce coordination in the Pareto‐dominant equilibrium.
Keywords: Coordination games, coordination failures, information, entropy
References
[1] L. Brillouin. The negentropy principle of information. Journal of Applied Physics, 24(9), 1953.
[2] John Bryant. A simple rational expectations Keynes‐type model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(3):525–528, 1983.
[3] Peter A. Diamond. Aggregate demand management in search equilibrium. Journal of Political Economy, 90(5):881–894, 1982.
[4] John B. Van Huyck, Raymond C. Battalio, and Richard O. Beil. Tacit coordination games, strategic uncertainty and coordination failure. The American Economic Review, 80(1):234–248, 1990.
[5] John B. Van Huyck, Raymond C. Battalio, and Richard O. Beil. Strate‐gic uncertainty, equilibrium selection, and coordination failure in aver‐age opinion games. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, pages 885–910, 1991.
[6] R. Mark Isaac, David Schmidthz, and James M. Walker. The assurance problem in a laboratory market.
Public Choice, 62:217–236, 1989.
[7] Michael L. Katz and Carl Shapiro. Network externalities, competition, and compatibility. The American Economic Review, 75:424–440, 1985.
[8] E. Schrödinger. What Is Life? Trinity College, Dublin, 1944.
[9] Claude E. Shannon. A mathematical theory of communication. The Bell System Technical Journal, 27:379–
423 623–656, 194
16:30‐17:30 Room: Sáez Torrecilla
Title. Current issues in Finance and Banking Supervision
Chair: Raquel Arguedas Sanz
Comparative Analysis of the Optimal Delays in the Application of the Most Common Stock Market Technical Indicators
Presenter: Rodrigo Martín‐García, UNED, Spain Coauthors: Enrique Ventura Pérez, UNED, Spain
Raquel Arguedas‐Sanz, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Technical analysis is a fundamental instrument in investment decision making and provides a lot of tools that can be incorporated into portfolio management models. In this contribution, an analysis of the results of the most common technical indicators is proposed, and applied comparatively in the Spanish market, through the main benchmark (IBEX‐35) and the securities that take part in it, for 2005‐2016 daily data. This interval has been divided into three non‐overlapping time periods to analyze the consistency of the results. Thus, we observe an unequal utility of the seven indicators studied. For this reason, in addition, it is studied if investment yields are linked to delays between the buy/sell signal provided by the different
13 indicators and the buy/sell transactions. The simulation shows the existence of indicator‐ delay combinations with consistently higher returns over the period.
Keywords: Technical analysis, trading strategy, IBEX35, optimal lags
Alpha Generation in the Private Equity Industry
Presenter: Enrique De‐Aragon, PhD student UNED, Spain Coauthors: Raquel Arguedas‐Sanz, UNED, Spain
Laura Parte, UNED, Spain
Abstract. With more than 3 trillion USD raised from 2014 to 2017, Private Equity (“PE”) has consolidated as an alternative investment asset class by reaching levels never seen before in terms of capital commitment for private investments.
This boom seems to contradict some prior literature arguing that PE on average does not perform better than stocks and that fund managers are not able to deliver persistent returns. If this were true, why would investors commit an increasingly amount of money to an asset class unable to generate a higher value in comparison to its public counterparts?
This paper aims to address said question by exploring the state‐of‐the‐art considerations on the reasons why investors may expect a certain level of returns and the reasons why this asset class may deliver a certain yield. By using an econometric model, the ex‐post alpha of a sample of PE‐backed companies is analyzed.
Further adjustments by risk and market capitalization are performed to isolate the portion of unsystematic return attributable to managerial skills and activism. In addition, the model estimates a breakdown of the value creation in terms of (i) EBITDAs; (ii) multiples; and (iii) deleverage or cash generation. The main results indicate that Private‐Equity‐backed companies generate a positive alpha, mainly by levering on the industrial growth. The effect remains positive after risk‐adjusting and selecting a proper index benchmark in terms of companies with similar size. Lastly, the door remains open for further analysis to identify the extent to which alpha is due to improvements in top line or to cost optimizations within portfolio companies.
Keywords: alpha generation, superior returns, benchmark performance, private equity asset class, value creation drivers.
The Countercyclical Capital Buffer. Tests of Releasing
Presenter: Jesús Salcedo Sotoca, student UNED / Banco de España, Spain Coauthors: Raquel Arguedas‐Sanz, UNED, Spain
Inmaculada Pra Martos, UNED, Spain
Abstract. One of the theorical key aspects regarding the Counterclyclical Capital Buffer (CCB) as defined by Basel III relates both to the moment of release as well as the intensity. We define a model for formally testing whether the recommended amount of liberation of the 100% performs better than other patterns:
gradual, differed.
Implicaciones de la aplicación de Basilea III en América Latina. El caso de México, Argentina, Colombia y Chile (web conference presentation)
Presenter: Enara Avezuela Amenabar, Student Máster en Investigación en Economía, UNED, Spain Coauthors: Inmaculada Pra Martos, UNED, Spain
Raquel Arguedas‐Sanz, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Tras la reciente crisis financiera, ha sido necesario modificar la normativa de solvencia para otorgar estabilidad al sistema financiero internacional. El objetivo del presente trabajo es revisar cuáles han sido las implicaciones de aplicar Basilea III en cuatro países de América Latina: México, Argentina, Chile y Colombia.
En cada caso, se utiliza un método analítico para determinar las variables relevantes, se estudia la situación
14 normativa a través de un método descriptivo y se determinan los niveles de capital y liquidez con un método observacional (no experimental). A continuación, se analiza el impacto que ha tenido la aplicación de Basilea III en las principales variables macroeconómicas y se resumen las posibles consecuencias futuras de dicha normativa en cada uno de los países. Se observa que, por tratarse de países que parten de un nivel de capitalización bancaria elevado, la aplicación de Basilea III ha tenido consecuencias sobre las tasas de interés pero no sobre los niveles de financiación bancaria.
Palabras clave: Basilea III, América Latina, sistema financiero internacional
16:30‐17:30 Room: Sala 1 B
Title. Applied Economic Modelling
Chair: M. Ángeles Rodríguez Santos
Econometric Approach on Hedonic Pricing of Properties Located Near the Gando Air Base Affected by the Noise of the Military Aircraft (Spain)
Presenter: Amelia Pérez Zabaleta, UNED, Spain
Coauthors: José Francisco Rodríguez Artiles, UNED, Spain José María Labeaga Azcona, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Assessing the impact of environmental externalities has become one of the essential aspect in making economic and urban planning decisions. Our goal is focused on the novel assessment of noise pollution emitted by military aircraft located in Gando Air Base in 2012. It was analyzed their impact on the housing market for 6,447 households affected by more than 55 decibels, limiting our study to three municipalities of Gran Canaria (Spain): Telde, Agüimes and Ingenio. To this end, use was made of the valuation of hedonic pricing method through a semi‐logarithmic econometric function by ordinary least squares. Finally It was concluded that the noise pollution emitted by military aircraft positively affects the price of housings in the area when they are between 55 and 70 decibels so the fact that a property is near a noise source is not in itself conclusive evidence that a loss of real state values.
Keywords: externality, noise pollution, hedonic pricing, econometric function.
Dinámica y modelización de series temporales: El caso del tráfico marítimo de graneles sólidos en los puertos españoles
Presenter: Vicente Inglada, UNED, Spain
Coauthors: Pablo Coto Millán, Universidad de Cantabria, Spain
Lucía Inglada‐Perez, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain
Abstract. Numerosos datos ponen de manifiesto que el sistema portuario desempeña un papel estratégico muy relevante en la economía española. En este sentido, cerca del setenta por ciento del comercio exterior español se lleva a cabo mediante el transporte marítimo y una parte del territorio español tiene un carácter insular, Asimismo, en relación con su volumen de tráfico marítimo, España ocupa el cuarto lugar en la Unión Europea en 2013 y es el país con mayor incremento de tráfico marítimo en sus puertos durante dicho año.
Por ello, la modelización y predicción de las series temporales que miden la demanda de transporte marítimo adquiere un carácter sumamente interesante para el caso español, principalmente en relación con los aspectos de planificación de las inversiones y gestión del sistema portuario, así como para todos los agentes que intervienen en el transporte marítimo: armadores, fletadores, etc. Este interés se extiende a las actividades económicas que se desarrollan al calor de los puertos, en su correspondiente hinterland, El objetivo general de este trabajo es la modelización y predicción del tráfico de graneles sólidos en los puertos
15 españoles. Dentro del segmento de graneles sólidos se incluyen mercancías como carbón, productos siderúrgicos, minerales, cemento, cereales, etc., que tienen un importante peso en el comercio exterior de mercancías, Su utilizan datos mensuales para la variable correspondiente al número de toneladas de graneles sólidos embarcadas y desembarcadas en los puertos españoles y el estudio abarca el periodo 1992‐
2013. Dentro del proceso de modelización de la serie temporal objeto de este trabajo, mediante la aplicación de la teoría clásica de series temporales, apoyándose en diversos modelos tipos de modelos como Arima y Garch se investiga su dinámica y volatilidad, y se explora la posible existencia de no linealidad y caos determinista utilizando una amplia batería de contrastes.
Palabras clave: Transporte marítimo, Análisis de series temporales, Modelos Arima, Modelos Garch, Caos
Comercio internacional y proteccionismo: los acuerdos comerciales regionales
Presenter: Mª Ángeles Rodríguez Santos, UNED, Spain Coauthor: Elena Casado García‐Hirschfeld, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Pasado los peores años de la última crisis económica internacional cabe preguntarse cuál es la situación de las relaciones comerciales multilaterales, en el marco de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC), desde dos puntos de vista. En primer lugar, desde la perspectiva de la puesta en marcha de medidas proteccionistas, analizando su relevancia. En segundo lugar, analizando la evolución de los acuerdos comerciales regionales (ACR) como alternativa al multilateralismo.
El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar si la alarma proteccionista está fundamentada en la aplicación de medidas comerciales, y otras medidas relacionadas con el comercio, y cómo va a repercutir esta alerta en la negociación de nuevos ACR.
Palabras clave: comercio internacional, multilateralismo, proteccionismo y regionalismo.
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Thursday, May 10
11:30‐12:30 Room: Salón de Actos
Title. Economic Equilibrium Model
Chair: Marc Vorsatz
A Panting Rule in Minimum Cost Spanning Tree Problems with Multiple Sources
Presenter: Adriana Navarro Ramos, Universidade de Vigo, Spain Coauthor: Gustavo Bergantiños, Universidade de Vigo, Spain
Abstract. Consider that a group of agents is interested in some service which is provided by several suppliers, also called sources. The connections have associated a cost and agents do not care whether they are connected directly or indirectly to such sources, but they want to be connected to all of them. This situation is a generalization of the classical minimum cost spanning tree problem where there is a unique source. Given a cost spanning tree problem with multiple sources, the first issue to solve is to look for the least costly connection (a tree) that provides all the agents with the resource. Such tree can be obtained, in polynomial time, using the same algorithms as in the classical problem (for instance, Kruskal (1956) and Prim (1957)). The second question we must answer is how to allocate the cost of the obtained tree among the agents. This issue has been studied in the economic literature for similar problems. For the case that is studied in this research, Bergantiños et al (2016) extend different definitions of the folk rule, a well‐known and widely studied solution for classical minimum cost spanning tree problems, to this new context. In Bergantiños and Lorenzo (2016) a set of several rules obtained through Kruskal's algorithm is defined and characterized. Under a general framework of connection problems involving a single source, Bergantiños et al (2014) propose a cost distribution rule, called the painting rule. In addition to analyzing the properties of this rule and characterizing it, they show that for the painting rule coincides with the folk rule on the classical minimal cost spanning tree problem. The objective of this work is to extend the painting rule, considering the same model as in Bergantiños et al (2016) and to prove that it coincides with the folk rule in the case of multiple sources.
Keywords: cost sharing, minimum cost spanning tree problems, multiple sources, folk rule, painting rule, axiomatic characterization.
Strategy‐Proof Location of Public Facilities
Presenter: Marc Vorsatz, UNED, Spain
Coauthor: Jorge Alcalde‐Unzu,Universidad Pública de Navarra, Spain
Abstract. Consider the problem of locating a public facility taking into account the agents' preferences. To construct strategy‐proof social choice rules, we propose a new preference domain that allows agents to have any single‐peaked or any single‐dipped preference on the location of the facility such that the peak/dip of the preference is in her own location. We characterize all strategy‐proof rules in this general framework and study the conditions under which this family of strategy‐proof rules includes non‐dictatorial rules that have more than two alternatives in the range or that are Pareto efficient. Finally, we characterize for some focal cases all strategy‐proof and Pareto efficient rules.
17
On The Stability and Evolution of Economic Equilibrium
Presenter: Alejandro Jofre Cáceres, Universidad de Chile, Chile Coauthors: R. T. Rockafellar, University of Washington, USA
R. J‐B Wets, University of California, USA
Abstract. In an economic model of exchange of goods, an equilibrium of market prices and resultant holdings of the agents, if stable, can reconstitute itself in response to slight perturbations of those holdings, although with slightly adjusted prices and holdings. Results about that were obtained by Balasko in 1975, but here such stability properties are developed with utility functions more general than his in allowing the boundary of the goods orthant to come into play. This platform supports the investigation of how a market in equilibrium may evolve in continual response to exogenous additions and subtractions to holdings, a dynamical process which is conceptually very different from tâtonnement. The study is undertaken moreover with agents being able to hold zero quantities of goods that are not indispensable to them. A one‐
sided differential equation characterizing the evolution of equilibrium prices and holdings is derived as well.
This advance is made possible by the application of methodology of variational analysis beyond classical differential analysis. It benefits also from viewing goods very generally, not just as commodities and not only for immediate disposal, with the agents then not necessarily being just consumers. It further relies on identifying a broader, but still convenient, criterion for the attainment of equilibrium from initial holdings in the Walrasian setting, one which gets away from requiring every agent to start out with a positive quantity of every good.
Keywords: General equilibrium, exchange equilibrium, market stability, evolutionary dynamics, evolution equation, shift stability, tâtonnement stability, variational analysis.
11:30‐12:30 Room: Sáez Torrecilla
Title. Accounting and Auditing: Issues to Debate in the Context of the Global Economy
Chair: Ana I. Segovia San Juan
Financial Literacy and other Linked Concepts in the Financial Decisions for Retirement
Presenter: Teresa Herrador‐Alcaide, UNED, Spain Coauthors: Gabriela Topa Cantisano, UNED, Spain
Montserrat Hernández‐Solís, UNED, Spain Inmaculada Pra Martos, UNED, Spain
Abstract. Decisions about financial planning has been linked to financial literacy and other near concepts since long time ago in the specific academic literature. One of the most important financial decision throughout life is how to provide the cash necessary to cover our necessities during our retirement.
In this conference is going to analyse several of these financial concept, which could be affecting to the making decisions of saving versus spending in the present moment, and which in fact are going to determining our welfare in the old age. We will show some findings of empirical research that we have carried out with a sample in Spain which is composed for more of 400 people.
Keywords: Financial Literacy, Retirement, Financial planning
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New Auditing Approaches in the Digital Age
Presenter: Ana Isabel Segovia San Juan, UNED, Spain Coauthors: Francisco Javier Sosa Álvarez, CUNEF, Spain
Ricardo Queralt Sánchez de las Matas, CUNEF, Spain
Abstract. Changes in the information systems of organizations, in which large amounts of data are handled, motivate the needing to develop alternative approaches based on digital analysis. One of these approaches is the continuous audit that has been developed in the last two decades by the Canadian Institute of Public Accountants (CICA), the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) or the International Association of Information Systems of Audit and Control (ISACA), among others. The continuous audit is based on the use of technology and automated processes to make the auditing task more efficient, so that the reliability of the financial information can be improved. The purpose of this work is, on the one hand, to review of the new fields of action of audit that pursues the use of more automated tools (Audit Data Analytics) and the use of big data, focusing on specific in practical application of the so‐called Benford's Law.
This review allows us to point out some reflections that could be considered by regulatory bodies and by professional corporations by focusing the need for specific training required not only for accessing to the profession but during their professional life. As a consequence, it would be necessary to create multidisciplinary work groups and study commissions that define guidelines with the new techniques to be applied as a complement to traditional ones.
Keywords: Auditing, Continuous auditing, Benford´s Law, Analytics procedures
The Boundaries of Financial Reporting and the Integrated Report
Presenter: Eva Mª Ibáñez Jiménez, UNED, Spain
Abstract. The application of integrated or holistic thinking to organizations derives in the formulation of the so‐called integrated report. Its fitting with traditional corporate reporting ‐financial reports and sustainability reports‐ poses difficulties such as contents duplicity or informational overload. First, we analyze the boundaries between financial and non‐financial information in accordance with FASB and IASB conceptual framework. In the second place, we compare the principles and contents of non‐financial reports and those relating to the management report, in order to determine the optimal configuration of the integrated corporate reporting.
Keywords: financial reporting, integrated report, management report, duplicity
El aseguramiento de Información no Financiera en España
Presenter: Liliana B. Freire Ferrer, Universidad de La Plata, Argentina Coauthor: M. Marcelo Canetti, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
Abstract. El aseguramiento sobre las formas emergentes de información externa emerge como una demanda proveniente tanto de usuarios tradicionales de la información contable (v.g. inversores, propietarios, acreedores, reguladores), como así también de los denominados nuevos usuarios, o llamados stakeholders (v.g. clientes y consumidores, empleados y sus agrupaciones sindicales, organizaciones ambientalistas y la sociedad en general). La necesidad de dar credibilidad a dichos informes es una demanda por parte del colectivo de usuarios del Informe Integrado y de otras formas emergentes de información externa en España. Ante estos nuevos servicios emergentes, el presente trabajo aborda éstas cuestiones y algunos aspectos que merecen resaltarse y cómo los profesionales damos respuesta.
Keywords: Informes integrados, aseguramiento, auditoría, responsabilidad social, información no financiera
