Electric Bus_Final-1

(1)

An Impact An Impact

Analysis of Analysis of

Electrifying Electrifying

Florida’s Public Florida’s Public

Buses Buses

AER Group, Tallahassee FL AER Group, Tallahassee FL

(2)

Project Scope

 Proterra Inc. contracted AER Group to perform an impact analysis of

converting Florida public buses from diesel to electric

• Direct cost savings

• Indirect benefits

(3)

Electric Bus Alternative

 The Proterra EcoRide

• Equivalent lifespan of

a diesel bus (12 years)

• Improved fuel

efficiency

• Simplified motor

• FastFill™ Charging

Station

(4)

Methodology

4

Impact

Analysis

Cost

Comparison

Additional Benefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures

Increased Economic Activity

(5)

Methodology

5

Impact

Analysis

Cost

Comparison

Additional Benefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures

Reduced Externalities

• Purchase Price • Facility

(6)

Initial Investment for

Electric Higher than

Diesel

Source: Proterra Inc., American Public Transportation Association Factbook, 2012 ₆

$790,00 0

$480,00 0

(7)

Initial Investment for

Electric Higher than

Diesel

7

$310,00 0

(8)

Federal Grants Cover at least 80% Federal Grants Cover at least 80%

of Initial Investment for Electric of Initial Investment for Electric

and Diesel and Diesel

Source: US Department of Transportation Federal Transit Administration, NTD 8

 Tallahassee’s StarMetro received 100% federal

(9)

Initial Investment for Electric Higher

than Diesel, but Offset by Federal

Grants

9

$62,0 00

(10)

Methodology

10

Impact

Analysis

Cost Comparison

Additional Benefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures

Reduced Externalities

(11)

Electric Bus Has a Simpler

Mechanical System

11

Proterra Inc., 2013

Engin e Engine Oil Traction Motor Gearbox Battery Electric Electric vs vs . . Diesel Diesel Engine Components

Fuel Systems Exhaust Systems

Belts Alternator

(12)

Lifetime Maintenance Costs for Lifetime Maintenance Costs for

an Electric Bus Are Less than an Electric Bus Are Less than

Diesel Diesel

12

(13)

Lifetime Maintenance Costs for Lifetime Maintenance Costs for

an Electric Bus Are Less than an Electric Bus Are Less than

Diesel Diesel

13

US National Transit Database, 1991 - 2011

(14)

Electricity and Diesel Price Electricity and Diesel Price

Projections Needed to Estimate Projections Needed to Estimate

Fuel Costs to 2035 Fuel Costs to 2035

14

(15)

Source: US Energy Information Administration 15

Apply National Diesel Price Apply National Diesel Price

Projections to Florida without Projections to Florida without

(16)

Source: US Energy Information Administration 16

Apply National Diesel Price Apply National Diesel Price

Projections to Florida without Projections to Florida without

Modification Modification

(17)

Electricity Prices Vary Due To Electricity Prices Vary Due To

Numerous Utilities Throughout Numerous Utilities Throughout

Florida Florida

17

(18)

Buses Concentrated in

Densely Populated Areas

18

EscambiaSanta RosaOkaloosa Walton Holmes Jackson Washington Bay Calhoun Gulf _Franklin Liberty Gadsden Leon Wakulla Jefferson Madison Taylor Hamilton Suwannee Lafayette Dixie Columbia Baker Union BradfordClay Alachua Levy Marion Putnam St. Johns Duval Nassau Gilchrist Citrus Flagler Volusia Seminole Lake Sumter Hernando Brevard Orange Pasco Hillsborough Pinellas Manatee Sarasota Polk Osceola Indian River Okeechobee Highlands Hardee DeSoto Charlotte Lee Glades Martin St. Lucie Palm Beach Hendry Collier Broward Monroe Miami-Dade Number of Buses

No buses 1-50 51-200 201-500 501-1,000

(19)

Apply National Electricity Price Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced Projections to Florida, Reduced

by 12% by 12%

19

(20)

Apply National Electricity Price Apply National Electricity Price Projections to Florida, Reduced Projections to Florida, Reduced

by 12% by 12%

20

(21)

Electric Buses Are 5x

More Fuel Efficient than

Diesel

(22)

Lifetime Fuel Expenditures for Lifetime Fuel Expenditures for

Electric $450K less than Diesel Electric $450K less than Diesel

22

Source: Penn State, NTD

(23)

Total Lifetime Cost for

Electric Bus Lower than

Diesel

23

(24)

Total Lifetime Cost for

Electric Bus Lower than

Diesel

24

Source: NTD, APTA, Proterra Inc., Penn State, EIA

(25)

Conversion Plan –

Purchase 200 Electric

Buses Each Year

25

(26)

Annual Total Cost of

Diesel Fleet and

(27)

Despite Initial Loss, Total Cost

of Electric Fleet is $120M Less

Per Year

27

Initial Deficit Recoupme

nt _$120

million

(28)

Electric Fleet Continues to Electric Fleet Continues to

Generate Savings with Constant Generate Savings with Constant

Federal Grants Federal Grants

28

Reference

Constant Grants

(29)

Electricity and Diesel Prices Electricity and Diesel Prices

Stay Constant Until 2035 Stay Constant Until 2035

29

(30)

Electricity and Diesel Prices Electricity and Diesel Prices

Stay Constant Until 2035 Stay Constant Until 2035

30

(31)

Electric Fleet Continues to

Generate Savings with Constant

Fuel Prices

31

Constant Fuel Prices

Reference

(32)

Methodology

32

Impact

Analysis

Cost

Comparison

Additional Benefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures

(33)

Methodology

33

Impact

Analysis

Cost

Comparison

Additional Benefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures

(34)

Electrifying Public Bus

System May Create New

Jobs

(35)

Additional Electricity Demand

May Require a New Power Plant

in Florida

 Current supply and demand of electricity is in equilibrium

 Charging electric buses at peak times will create unplanned demand for

electricity

 A new electricity plant of 85 MW may be needed

(36)

If a New 85 MW Electric Plant Is

Built, It Will Stimulate the

Florida Economy

Category Estimate

Construction Spending $110 million

Operating Cost $2.5 million/year Annual Sales $50 million/year

New Jobs (direct & indirect)

100 permanent jobs

Personal Income Increase

$20 million

36

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Florida Public Service Commission

(37)

Local Governments Can Divert

Transit Cost Savings of $120M to

Other Services

If cost savings are spent on education:

37

Category Estimate

Annual Cost Savings $120 million

New Jobs (direct & indirect)

500 permanent jobs

Personal Income Increase

$40 million

Estimates produced using a regional economic model by REMI, Inc.

(38)

Electrifying Public Bus System

Could Reduce Negative

Externalities

 Since 2001, “clean diesel” has helped reduce air pollutants

 CO2 emissions have not been reduced

 Will conversion aid in the reduction of CO2?Will conversion aid in the reduction of CO2?

(39)

CO2 from Electric Buses Comes CO2 from Electric Buses Comes

from Production of Electricity at from Production of Electricity at

Power Plants Power Plants

Source: Public Utilities Commission; EIA

40 metric tons of CO

40 metric tons of CO₂₂ per bus per bus annually

annually

(40)

CO

₂₂

Emissions Are

Significantly Lower for

Electric Buses

CO₂ emissions are 75% lower for an electric

bus!

(41)

Electrifying Transit Will

Continually Reduce

CO

_CO

₂₂

Emissions

At full conversion, 300k tons of

CO₂ can be saved

41

(42)

Electrifying Could Reduce

Externality Cost by as Much as

$7M Annually

42

Source: CUTR, NTD, EIA, Florida Public Services Commission

$4m

$4.5 m

(43)

Conclusion

Impact of Electrifying Florida’s Public Buses

(44)

Methodology

44

Impact

Analysis

Cost

Comparison

Additional Benefits

Initial Investment

Annual Expenditures

(45)

Florida Would Benefit from

Electrifying the Public Bus

System

45

 At full conversion:

• Annual cost savings of $120M$120M

• Creation of up to 600 jobs _{600 jobs}

• Reduced externality effect by $7M _$7M

 It makes economic sense for Florida to economic sense

(46)