Seminario de Política Monetaria y Estabilidad
Financiera
Managua -Nicaragua
Indicadores de Dolarización
Financiera en Centroamérica y RD
Dominicana
Guatemala
Regímenes de Política Monetaria y
Esquemas Cambiarios
Esquemas Monetarios
Regímenes Monetarios
Metas de Inflación
R
egí
menes
M
on
etar
io
s
Agregados Monetarios
Ancla Cambiaria
T
C
F
ijo
T
C
In
terme
d
io
T
C
Flotant
e
Nicaragua:
Minidevaluacione
s Preanunciadas
Honduras
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Flexibilidad
Flexi
bilidad
CA&RD: Tipo de Cambio Nominal
Esquemas Monetarios
350 400 450 500 550 600 e n e -04 ag o -04 m ar -05 o ct -05 m ay -06 d ic -06 ju l-07 fe b -08 se p -08 ab r-09 n o v-09 ju n -10 e n e -11 ag o -11 m ar -12 o ct -12 m ay -13 d ic -13 ju l-14Costa Rica
16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 e n e -04 ag o -04 m ar -05 o ct -05 m ay -06 d ic -06 ju l-07 fe b -08 se p -08 ab r-09 n o v-09 ju n -10 e n e -11 ag o -11 m ar -12 o ct -12 m ay -13 d ic -13 ju l-14Honduras
20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 e n e -04 ag o -04 m ar -05 o ct -05 m ay -06 d ic -06 ju l-07 fe b -08 se p -08 ab r-09 n o v-09 ju n -10 e n e -11 ag o -11 m ar -12 o ct -12 m ay -13 d ic -13 ju l-14Dominicana
6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 e n e -04 ag o -04 m ar -05 o ct -05 m ay -06 d ic -06 ju l-07 fe b -08 se p -08 ab r-09 n o v-09 ju n -10 e n e -11 ag o -11 m ar -12 o ct -12 m ay -13 d ic -13 ju l-14Guatemala
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 e n e -04 ag o -04 m ar -05 o ct -05 m ay -06 d ic -06 ju l-07 fe b -08 se p -08 ab r-09 n o v-09 ju n -10 e n e -11 ag o -11 m ar -12 o ct -12 m ay -13 d ic -13 ju l-14Nicaragua
Índice de Tipo de Cambio Real
Año Base:2000
Esquemas Monetarios
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
e
n
e
-99
ju
l-99
e
n
e
-00
ju
l-00
e
n
e
-01
ju
l-01
e
n
e
-02
ju
l-02
e
n
e
-03
ju
l-03
e
n
e
-04
ju
l-04
e
n
e
-05
ju
l-05
e
n
e
-06
ju
l-06
e
n
e
-07
ju
l-07
e
n
e
-08
ju
l-08
e
n
e
-09
ju
l-09
e
n
e
-10
ju
l-10
e
n
e
-11
ju
l-11
e
n
e
-12
ju
l-12
e
n
e
-13
ju
l-13
e
n
e
-14
ju
l-14
Finanzas Públicas En CA&RD
Algunas Implicancias de desequilibrios Fiscales para la
Política Monetaria:
Pérdida de Reservas (en ausencia de flotación pura).
Apreciación Real del Tipo de Cambio.
Trade Off en el uso de la tasa de interés como instrumento de
políticas (Presiones de demanda vrs. costo de la deuda pública).
Alza en tasas de interés reales (por competencia de recursos y
riesgo país e inflación esperada).
Mayores costos cuasifiscales.
Finanzas Públicas En CA&RD
Esquemas Monetarios
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
19
9
5
19
9
6
19
9
7
19
9
8
19
9
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
20
0
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
P
o
rcent
a
je
s
Deuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Po
rc
en
ta
je
s
Deuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Costa Rica
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
19
9
1
19
9
2
19
9
3
19
9
4
19
9
5
19
9
6
19
9
7
19
9
8
1999
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
P
o
rcent
a
je
s
Balance primario del GC porcentaje PIB
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
P or ce nt aj e sBalance primario del GC porcentaje PIB
Finanzas Públicas En CA&RD
Esquemas Monetarios
Guatemala
Honduras
Guatemala
Honduras
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Po
rc
en
ta
je
s
Deuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
-0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.01 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P or ce nt aj e s
Balance primario GC porcentaje PIB
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Po
rc
en
ta
je
s
Deuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
-.080
-.070
-.060
-.050
-.040
-.030
-.020
-.010
.000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
P
o
rc
e
n
ta
je
s
Finanzas Públicas En CA&RD
Esquemas Monetarios
Nicaragua
Dominicana
Nicaragua
Dominicana
.200 .300 .400 .500 .600 .700 .800 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 P o rc e n ta je sDeuda del GC como porcentaje PIB
-.010
-.005
.000
.005
.010
.015
.020
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
P
or
ce
nt
aj
e
s
Balance primario del GC porcentaje PIB
-0.05
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
P
or
ce
nt
aj
e
s
Balance primario del GC porcentaje PIB
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
P
o
rc
e
n
ta
je
s
Objetivos de un Banco Central
Esquemas Monetarios
Política Monetaria y
Cambiaria (TI, TC, OMA,
Encajes, etc.
Estabilidad de Precios y
Control del Ciclo
Capacidad Normadora del
Sistema Financiero y del
SdeP
Estabilidad Financiera
(
ámbito macroprudiencial
)
Capacidad (información y
capital humano) para la
Formulación de Políticas
Sectoriales.
Objetivos
Instrumentos
Contribuir al Crecimiento
de Largo Plazo
Los Objetivos de un Banco Central deben considerar la naturaleza de
los instrumentos que dispone y la institucionalidad del País.
Objetivos y Mecanismos de la
Política Monetaria
Esquemas Monetarios
OMA, Encaje
Reservas
Tipo de Cambio
Precios
Con Ancla Cambiaria
Con Metas de inflación
TPM
i, r, C, I, DA
Expectativas de
π
Precios y Brecha
Producto
Instrumentos
Variables del
Mecanismo
Objetivo Intermedio
Objetivo Final
Instrumentos
Variables del
Mecanismo
Objetivo Intermedio
Objetivo Final
Shock Abserver
Tasas de
Interés
Shock Abserver
Tipo de
Cambio
Efectivo con:
•
Elevado Pass Throw
Efectivo con:
•
Bajo Pass Throw
Vulnerable a:
•
Movimiento de K
Manejable pese:
Nicaragua: Precios y Tipo de Cambio
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
e
n
e
-95
e
n
e
-96
e
n
e
-97
e
n
e
-98
e
n
e
-99
e
n
e
-00
e
n
e
-01
e
n
e
-02
e
n
e
-03
e
n
e
-04
e
n
e
-05
e
n
e
-06
e
n
e
-07
e
n
e
-08
e
n
e
-09
e
n
e
-10
e
n
e
-11
e
n
e
-12
e
n
e
-13
e
n
e
-14
Inflación
Devaluación
Dilema de Políticas Macroeconómicas
Caso El Salvador
Caso EE.UU
Reglas
Discreción
Flexibilidad
Rigidez
Reto de Política Monetaria
Esquemas Monetarios
Política Monetaria
Subordinada a la Meta
Cambiaria
Política Monetaria Flexible
Transición es un ejercicio de
optimización dinámica en cada
estado de situación (Arte de diseño
de mecanismos y manejo de
expectativas.
En la transición se puede ir desarrollando los instrumentos necesarios
para una política monetaria más flexible
Conclusiones I
La disciplina Fiscal es un Activo que debe mantenerse y consolidarse
independientemente de la estrategia monetaria que se implemente.
Los objetivos de un Banco Central pueden incluir aspectos adicionales
a la inflación, siempre y cuando cuente con los instrumentos
necesarios (en el caso de Nicaragua cabe incluir un objetivo de
contribución al crecimiento).
La política monetaria en el presente, se ajusta a las condiciones
actuales, en este sentido la convertibilidad (seguro cambiario ha
funcionado bien como ancla nominal de la economía.
Conclusiones II
La Flexibilidad de políticas constituye una estrategia superior a las
reglas rígidas
El éxito en mantener la estabilidad macroeconómica se fundamenta en
un conceso por hacer los ajustes necesarios cuando la coyuntura así lo
demande, las maneras pueden variar en función de la realidad de cada
país.
La eventual entrada de capitales constituyen un importante reto para
las autoridades monetarias.
La transición hacia una mayor flexibilidad monetaria debe seguir una
senda de optimización en función de lo que las condiciones
económicas lo permitan.
Central America and Dominican Republic
Costa Rica: Performance and Economic Outlook
Note 1: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
4.4
5.1
3.0
3.7
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Economic Growth
4.7
4.6
5.0
5.0
-1.0 2.0 5.0 8.0 11.0 14.0 17.0 20.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Inflation y/y
-4.1
-4.5
-5.0
-5.8
-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Central Goberment Balance/GDP
43.6
51.2
53.3
30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Total Public Debt/GDP
-5.4
-5.2 -5.0
-5.1
-12.0 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Current Account Deficit/GDP
82.6
79.7
77.2
75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Real Exchange Rate Index
(2000=100)
Costa Rica: Performance and Economic Outlook
511 505 504 450 475 500 525 550 575 600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Nominal Exchange Rate (C$/US$)
0.60 0.76 0.77 0.00 0.40 0.80 1.20 1.60 2.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
10.7
7.0
10.8
-2.0 2.0 6.0 10.0 14.0 18.0 22.0 26.0 30.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
14.3
15.0
10.6
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
Costa Rica: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Positive Issues:
Export Diversification.
High Social Development.
Current Account financed by DFI.
Stable Inflation.
Risk Factors:
- Fiscal Deficit.
- Growth Deceleration and Unemployment.
- Increase in Central Bank Loses.
Main Challenges:
•
Reduce Fiscal Deficit
•
Adopt Inflation Targeting.
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Transition to Inflation Target
El Salvador: Performance and Economic Outlook
Note: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
1.5
1.3
1.9
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Economic Growth
5.1
0.8
2.9
-3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Inflation y/y
-2.3 -1.7 -0.4 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Central Government Balance/GDP
54.3
60.8
58.6
30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Total Public Debt/GDP
-4.6
-2.9
-4.2
-9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Current Account Deficit/GDP
104.5 106.0 106.9 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real Exchange Rate Index
(2000=100)
El Salvador: Performance and Economic Outlook
8.8
8.8
8.8
5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Nominal Exchange Rate (L$/US$)
0.98 1.30 1.15 0.00 0.40 0.80 1.20 1.60 2.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
-0.7
1.8
1.2
-3.0 1.0 5.0 9.0 13.0 17.0 21.0 25.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
4.7
3.4
5.7
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
Note: 2013 data correspond to May.
El Salvador: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Positive Issues:
Macroeconomic Stability related to the
Dollarization of the Economy.
Well Capitalized Financial Sistem.
Reasonable Fiscal Deficit.
Risk Factors:
- Cotinuous Low Growth.
- Cotinuous Low Invesment Levels.
- Rollover Risk in Internal Public Debt.
- Governability Weakness (World Banks Indicators).
Main Challenges:
•
Increase Economic Growth.
•
Improve Debt Payment Profile.
•
Strengthen Governance Indicators.
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Guatemala: Performance and Economic Outlook
Note: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
4.2
3.0
3.4
3.6
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Economic Growth
6.2
3.4
4.0
-4.0 -1.0 2.0 5.0 8.0 11.0 14.0 17.0 20.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Inflation y/y
-2.8
-2.4
-2.5
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Central Government Balance/GDP
28.7
29.5
27.4
20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0 32.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Total Public Debt/GDP
-3.4
-2.9
-3.7
-6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Current Account Deficit/GDP
67.8
68.0
65.8
50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Real Exchange Rate Index
(2000=100)
Guatemala: Performance and Economic Outlook
7.8
7.9
7.8
5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Nominal Exchange Rate (L$/US$)
0.99 1.02 1.01 0.00 0.40 0.80 1.20 1.60 2.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
10.6 8.8 11.3 -3.0 1.0 5.0 9.0 13.0 17.0 21.0 25.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
13.6 39.5 30.6 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
Guatemala: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Positive Issues:
Sustainable Public Debt (Lower in CA).
Monetary Stability.
Moderate Current Account Deficit (Lower in CA).
Risk Factors:
- Poverty and Inequality (Social Development).
- Insecurity related to Drug Trafficking.
- Governability Weakness (World Banks Indicators).
Main Challenges:
•
Increase Tax Revenue in order to Finance
Social Programs.
•
Reduce the Insecurity.
•
Strengthen Governance Indicators.
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Inflation Targeting.
Floating Exchange Rate, but with a rule to restrict
the Volatility.
Honduras: Performance and Economic Outlook
Note: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
3.8
3.9
3.1
3.0
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Economic Growth
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.0
-1.0 2.0 5.0 8.0 11.0 14.0 17.0 20.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Inflation y/y
-4.6
-5.9
-5.1
-3.9
-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Central Government Balance/GDP
44.7 45.1
50.4
20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Total Public Debt/GDP
-8.5
-9.5
-8.1
-8.8
-18.0 -15.0 -12.0 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Current Account Deficit/GDP
82.2
83.2 83.2
80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Honduras: Performance and Economic Outlook
19.1 20.1 20.6 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Nominal Exchange Rate (L$/US$)
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
0.78 0.75 0.79 0.00 0.40 0.80 1.20 1.60 2.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
11.8
2.6
1.5
-3.0 1.0 5.0 9.0 13.0 17.0 21.0 25.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
10.0
11.5
7.6
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
Honduras: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Positive Issues:
Sustainable Public Debt.
Stable Inflation.
Prudent Monetary Policy.
Risk Factors:
- Fiscal Deficit.
- Rollover Risk in Internal Public Debt.
- Growth Deceleration and Unemployment.
- High Current Account Deficit.
- Roya Effects and Low Prices in Coffee Sector.
- Governability Weakness (World Banks Indicators).
Main Challenges:
•
Reduce Fiscal Deficit.
•
Increase NIR.
•
Deal with Real Appreciation.
•
Improve Debt Payment Profile.
•
Strengthen Governance Indicators.
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Liquidity Management.
Nicaragua: Performance and Economic Outlook
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
5.4
5.2
4.2
4.5
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Economic Growth
8.0
6.6
7.0
7.1
-1.0 2.0 5.0 8.0 11.0 14.0 17.0 20.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Inflation y/y
0.5
0.5
0.5
-0.1
-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Central Government Balance/GDP
54.4 51.6 48.4
20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Total Public Debt/GDP
-13.5 -12.8 -14.0 -13.7
-21.0 -18.0 -15.0 -12.0 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Current Account Deficit/GDP
108.1109.4 110.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real Exchange Rate Index
(2000=100)
Note: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
Nicaragua: Performance and Economic Outlook
23.0
24.2 25.0
12.0 15.0 18.0 21.0 24.0 27.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Nominal Exchange Rate (C$/US$)
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
1.08 1.15 1.16 0.00 0.40 0.80 1.20 1.60 2.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
6.5 10.4 6.1 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0 20.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
Note: 2013 data correspond to June.
10.2 20.3 18.7 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Credit to Private Sector (y/y in US$)
Nicaragua: Main Policies and Balance of Risk
Positive Issues:
Economic Growth (highest in the region).
Fiscal Balance (surplus after grant).
Agreement between Government, Employers and Unions.
Sustainable Public Debt.
Advantageous Debt Payment Profile.
Risk Factors:
- Dependency on External Cooperation
- High Current Account Deficit.
- Economy’s Dollarization.
- Roya Effects and Low Prices in Coffee Sector.
- Governability Weakness (World Banks Indicators).
Challenges:
•
Reduce External Vulnerabilities.
•
Reduce the Proportion of Foreign Currency Debt.
•
Strengthen Inflation Control.
•
Strengthen Governance Indicators.
Monetary and Exchange Rate Regime:
Exchange Rate as Prices Nominal Anchor
Dominican Republic: Performance and Economic Outlook
Note: (+) mean depreciation, (-) appreciation.
Note 2: 2013 data correspond to July.
4.5
3.9
3.0
-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Economic Growth
7.8
3.9
5.0
4.5
-2.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 10.0 13.0 16.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Inflation y/y
-2.6
-6.6
-2.8
-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Central Government Balance/GDP
42.9
45.7
50.2
25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Total Public Debt/GDP
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
-7.9
-7.2
-4.5
-12.0 -9.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Current Account Deficit/GDP
93.9
96.1
98.5
80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Real Exchange Rate Index
(2000=100)
Dominican Republic: Performance and Economic Outlook
38.6
40.3
42.0
25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Nominal Exchange Rate (L$/US$)
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
0.62 0.56 0.63 0.00 0.40 0.80 1.20 1.60 2.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Net International Reserves/Broaden
Monetary Base
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
10.7
5.77.0
-7.0 -3.0 1.0 5.0 9.0 13.0 17.0 21.0 25.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Total Deposit (y/y in US$)
Note: 2013 data correspond to July.
9.3 1.6 5.7 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013