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ABSTRACT

,WLVVKRZQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHLQÁXHQ]D$+1HSLGHP-ics in our country. The mass media had an important role in to

make known the extent of the epidemics but with its alarmist

style contributed to create a state of uncertainty despite of the

mild to moderate intensity of the epidemics. The public health

institutions acted according to the circumstances and, many

times, it seemed that they echoed the alarmist mass media and

the overestimations of the real impact of the epidemics.

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EYWORDS

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Epidemics.

INTRODUCCIÓN

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-RESUMEN

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papel importante en dar a conocer los alcances de la epidemia pero con su estilo alarmista contribuyó

a crear una situación de incertidumbre, ya que esta epidemia se comportó como de intensidad leve

a moderada. Las instituciones de salud pública se comportaron de acuerdo a las circunstancias y

muchas veces pareció hacer eco de la prensa alarmista y de algunas sobreestimaciones en cuanto al

verdadero impacto de la epidemia.

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Oscar G. Pamo-Reyna

1

1. Médico internista del Hospital Arzobispo Loayza de Lima. Profesor principal, Facultad de Medicina Alberto Hurtado, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia.

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RESUMEN

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papel importante en dar a conocer los alcances de la epidemia pero con su estilo alarmista contribuyó

a crear una situación de incertidumbre, ya que esta epidemia se comportó como de intensidad leve

a moderada. Las instituciones de salud pública se comportaron de acuerdo a las circunstancias y

muchas veces pareció hacer eco de la prensa alarmista y de algunas sobreestimaciones en cuanto al

verdadero impacto de la epidemia.

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enfermedad de la próxima pandemia de influenza en Perú.

Escenario

mínimo más probable máximo TA 7,2% TA 15% TA 25% Ambulatorios 1 127 947 2 349 889 3 916 482 Hospitalizados 19 736 41 116 68 527 En UCI 2 371 4 938 8 231 En ventilación mecánica 1 185 2 469 4 115 Fallecidos 3 254 6 781 11 301 TA: tasa de ataque

Fuente: Dirección General de Epidemiología, Minsa. (Reproducido de la referencia bibliográfica 18)

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-Tabla 1. Estimación del impacto potencial en la carga de

enfermedad de la próxima pandemia de influenza en Perú.

Escenario

mínimo más probable máximo TA 7,2% TA 15% TA 25% Ambulatorios 1 127 947 2 349 889 3 916 482 Hospitalizados 19 736 41 116 68 527

En UCI 2 371 4 938 8 231

En ventilación mecánica 1 185 2 469 4 115 Fallecidos 3 254 6 781 11 301 TA: tasa de ataque

Fuente: Dirección General de Epidemiología, Minsa. (Reproducido de la referencia bibliográfica 18)

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influenza A (H1N1), primera semana de agosto del 2009.

Tabla 2. Total de casos y muertes atribuidas a la influenza a

(H1N1), mayo a diciembre, 2009, Perú.

Casos Muertes Tasa de fatalidad

Mayo 40 0 0

Junio 567 0 0

Julio 3 422 29 0,85

Agosto 2 690 55 2,04

Setiembre 1 601 59 3,68

Octubre 481 37 7,69

Noviembre 202 12 5,94

Diciembre 59 11 1,86

Totales 9 062 203 2,22

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Tabla 3. Total de casos y muertes atribuidas a la influenza a

(H1N1), por departamentos, mayo a diciembre, 2009, Perú. Departamento Casos Muertes

Lima 3 176 85

Arequipa 1 046 18

Cusco 479 13

La Libertad 590 7

Junín 469 5

Lambayeque 557 8

Provincia del Callao 229 19

Piura 462 9

Áncash 420 14

Cajamarca 173 10

Puno 202 9

Ayacucho 218 7

Huánuco 62 2

Huancavelica 102 4

Madre de Dios 47 0

Apurímac 254 2

Ica 36 1

Tumbes 75 0

Moquegua 46 4

Tacna 105 3

Amazonas 42 0

Ucayali 33 0

Pasco 25 0

Loreto 94 1

San Martín 127 1

Totales 9 062 203

(8)

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-Figura 1. Sala 4-I del Hospital Arzobispo Loayza para pacientes con

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Tabla 2. Total de casos y muertes atribuidas a la influenza a

(H1N1), mayo a diciembre, 2009, Perú.

Casos Muertes Tasa de fatalidad

Mayo 40 0 0

Junio 567 0 0

Julio 3 422 29 0,85

Agosto 2 690 55 2,04

Setiembre 1 601 59 3,68

Octubre 481 37 7,69

Noviembre 202 12 5,94

Diciembre 59 11 1,86

Totales 9 062 203 2,22

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Tabla 3. Total de casos y muertes atribuidas a la influenza a

(H1N1), por departamentos, mayo a diciembre, 2009, Perú. Departamento Casos Muertes

Lima 3 176 85

Arequipa 1 046 18

Cusco 479 13

La Libertad 590 7

Junín 469 5

Lambayeque 557 8

Provincia del Callao 229 19

Piura 462 9

Áncash 420 14

Cajamarca 173 10

Puno 202 9

Ayacucho 218 7

Huánuco 62 2

Huancavelica 102 4

Madre de Dios 47 0

Apurímac 254 2

Ica 36 1

Tumbes 75 0

Moquegua 46 4

Tacna 105 3

Amazonas 42 0

Ucayali 33 0

Pasco 25 0

Loreto 94 1

San Martín 127 1

Totales 9 062 203

Tabla 4. Total de casos de influenza a (H1N1), por grupos de edad,

mayo a diciembre, 2009, Perú.

Grupo de edad (años) Casos % % acumulado

0 a 4 1 113 12,3 12,3

5 a 9 1 576 17,4 29,7

10 a 14 1 536 16,9 46,6

15 a 19 944 10,4 57,0

20 a 24 922 10,2 67,2

25 a 29 692 7,6 74,9

30 a 34 528 5,8 80,7

35 a 39 399 4,4 85,1

40 a 44 322 3,5 88,6

45 a 49 281 3,1 91,7

50 a 54 259 2,9 94,6

55 a 59 186 2,1 96,7

60 a 64 108 1,2 97,8

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