Chile: main macro-financial indicators (31.01.2023)

(1)

CHILE: MAIN MACRO-FINANCIAL INDICATORS

International Economics and Euro Area

Department

(2)

SOURCES: IMF, Thomson Reuters and national statistics.

a Percentage of population with income of less than $3.2 (purchasing power parity) per day.

b Drawing on the IMF's calculations for assessing reserve adequacy, which take into account the level of reserves relative to different aggregates and the related opportunity cost.

c Difference between the actual level and the trend in credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP.

d Return on Assets (ROA) is deﬁned as proﬁt as a percentage of assets in the banking sector portfolio.

e Return on Equity (ROE) is deﬁned as proﬁt as a percentage of capital in the banking sector.

f Deﬁned as the ratio of net income from ﬁnancial intermediation to operating income. Provisioning expenses are not included in the numerator.

Operating income comprises income from ﬁnancial intermediation, income from services, income from shares and other operating income/expenditure, except for administration expenses.

Chile: main economic and social indicators

Table 1

2021 2020

3 . 0 8 )

s r a e y ( y c n a t c e p x e e fi L 5

6 2 , 6 1 )

$ t n a t s n o c ( a ti p a c r e p P D G

0 7 1 , 6 1 )

P P P ( a ti p a c r e p P D

G 10.8

9 . 4 4 )i

n i G ( y ti l a u q e n I 9

5 0 , 7 1 3 )

n b

$ ( P D G

) 3 2 0 2 ( t e g r a t n o it a lf n I 5 . 9 1 )

n o ill i m ( n o it a l u p o

P 3.0% (± 1.0%)

Monetary and real sector and prices 2000-2004

average 2005-2009

average 2010-2014

average 2015-2019

average 2020 2021

7 . 1 1 0

. 6 - 0

. 2 7

. 4 9

. 3 5

. 4 )

e t a r r a e y - n o - r a e y ( P D G

5 . 4 1

. 3 1

. 3 9

. 2 0

. 4 8

. 2 )

e t a r r a e y - n o - r a e y ( I P C

8 . 3 3

. 2 2

. 3 8

. 1 8

. 2 2

. 2 )

e t a r r a e y - n o - r a e y ( I P C g n i y lr e d n U

0 . 4 5

. 0 8

. 2 2

. 4 9

. 4 8

. 3 )

% ( e t a r t s e r e t n i y c il o P

1 . 9 2

. 1 1 9

. 6 1

. 7 5

. 9 2

. 0 1 )

% ( e t a r t n e m y o l p m e n U

7 . 7 - 3

. 7 - 4

. 2 - 2

. 0 - 2

. 4 4

. 0 )

P D G f o

% ( e c n a l a b t e g d u B

8 . 6 - 3

. 6 - 6

. 1 - 4

. 0 3

. 4 9

. 0 )

P D G f o

% ( e c n a l a b y r a m ir P

3 . 6 3 5

. 2 3 9

. 1 2 9

. 1 1 3

. 5 1

. 3 1 )

P D G f o

% ( t b e d c il b u P

External sector

9 . 8 7 0

. 2 7 0

. 1 7 3

. 1 8 5

. 9 8 1

. 3 7 )

P D G f o

% ( s s e n n e p o e d a r T

4 . 6 - 7

. 1 - 5

. 3 - 0

. 3 - 7

. 1 2

. 0 - )

P D G f o

% ( e c n a l a b t n u o c c a t n e r r u C

Foreign direct investment received (% of GDP) 5.6 7.4 9.3 5.3 3.4 4.0

7 . 9 2

. 5 0

. 1 6

. 0 9

. 5 - 9

. 1 - )

P D G f o

% ( s w o lf n i l a ti p a c o il o ft r o P

7 . 4 3

. 5 0

. 5 4

. 4 5

. 3 5

. 6 )

s t r o p m i f o s h t n o m ( s e v r e s e R

5 . 5 1 1

. 5 1 7

. 4 1 8

. 4 1 9

. 2 1 9

. 8 1 )

P D G f o

% ( s e v r e s e R

4 . 6 4 6

. 6 4 9

. 0 4 9

. 5 3 3

. 0 2 1

. 1 1 )

b ( ) F M I(

s c ir t e m A R A

8 . 6 7 6

. 3 7 1

. 6 6 8

. 6 4 7

. 5 3 0

. 2 5 )

P D G f o

% ( t b e d l a n r e t x E

Domestic debt held by non-residents (% of total) — — 3.91 2.30 2.23 3.33

Financial markets

8 . 2 8 8 3

. 4 5 8 5

. 6 4 7 1

. 0 7 6 7

. 0 2 7 6

. 0 3 6 o

r u e e h t t s n i a g a e t a r e g n a h c x E

0 . 5 2 7 8 . 3 7 7 1

. 6 3 6 6

. 6 9 4 3

. 4 4 5 1

. 9 0 6 r

a ll o d e h t t s n i a g a e t a r e g n a h c x E

9 . 2 5

. 3 4

. 4 8

. 5 2

. 6

— )

% ( d l e i y t b e d t n e m n r e v o g r a e y - 0 1

Average government debt maturity (months) 243.5 219.1 231.3 148.6 83.2 75.8

6 . 9 4 5

. 4 4 3

. 4 8 7

. 2 8

—

— )

s t n i o p s i s a b ( S D C n g i e r e v o S

4 . 3 0 1 6 . 8 6 4

. 0 8 9

. 3 6

—

— )

s t n i o p s i s a b ( S D C

Banking sector

0 . 2 7 )

P D G f o

% ( r o t c e s e h t f o e z i S

68.4 74.1 86.5 100.1 93.2

Credit to the private sector (% of GDP) 34.7 41.6 47.5 53.3 57.7 52.9

4 . 7 - 7

. 7 9

. 8 5

. 4 8

. 7 - 7

. 3 )

c ( p a g P D G - o t - ti d e r c l e s a B

5 . 6 4

. 2 0

. 6 0

. 7 4

. 2

— )r

a e y - n o - r a e y ( s e c ir p g n i s u o H

9 . 4 1 7

. 4 1 3

. 3 1 6

. 3 1 9

. 2 1

— s

A W R /l a ti p a c y r o t a l u g e R

7 . 0 1 7

. 0 1 4

. 0 1 0

. 0 1 8

. 9

— 1

r e i T

0 . 6 6 6

. 6 7 5

. 8 7

—

— RWAs/total assets

2 . 1 6

. 1 9

. 1 2

. 2 3

. 1 6

. 1 )

o il o ft r o p f o

% ( s n a o l g n i m r o fr e p - n o N

5 . 1 8

. 0 5

. 1 7

. 1 6

. 1 7

. 1 )

d ( A O R

3 . 6 1 6

. 7 2

. 4 1 3

. 8 1 7

. 7 1 3

. 7 1 )

e ( E O R

1 . 2 2 2

. 8 1 7

. 3 1 6

. 1 1 3

. 1 1 9

. 9 1 o

it a r y ti d i u q i L

Primary expenditure (% of total revenues) 52.7 51.8 47.0 48.3 54.1 45.6

Net interest income (% of gross revenues) (f) 74.1 69.7 64.6 66.6 67.5 69.6

Poverty rate (% of the population) (a)

(3)

SOURCE:Irma Alonso and Luis Molina. (2021). "A GPS navigator to monitor risks in emerging economies: the vulnerability dashboard". Documentos Ocasionales - Banco de España, 2111. https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/21/Files/do2111e.pdf.

a The risk level is indicated with shades of green (associated with lower levels of vulnerability), yellow (medium vulnerability) and red (variables in the highest risk percentiles).

Chile: situation of vulnerability (a)

Table 2

With respect to other emerging

market economies 2022 Latest ﬁgure H1 H2

Sovereign spread (bp)

0,39 0,3 0,33 0,46 0,42 0,44 0,81 0,7 0,38 0,54 0,28

Stock market (quarterly change)

0,29 0,36 0,49 0,78 0,62 0,78 0,79 0,52 0,33 0,18 0,084

Exchange rate (quarterly change)

0,46 0,31 0,41 0,79 0,48 0,81 0,21 0,28 0,9 0,53 0,8

Sovereign spread (quarterly change)

0,3 0,43 0,61 0,59 0,43 0,6 0,7 0,15 0,36 0,7 0,56 0,28

GDP (year-on-year)

0,92 0,75 0,41 0,68 0,88 0,81 0,96 0,94 0,45 0,01 0,22 0,424

Inﬂation

0,23 0,12 0,16 0,31 0,24 0,3 0,44 0,33 0,46 0,78 0,91 0,653

Industrial output

0,92 0,89 0,52 0,37 0,69 0,84 0,81 0,86 0,85 0,61 0,61 0,693

Currency overvaluation

0,27 0,29 0,39 0,24 0,22 0,07 0,01 0,04 0,11 0,02 0,03 0,23

Budget balance (% of GDP)

0,96 0,94 0,92 0,86 0,85 0,93 0,97 1 0,99 0,99 0,87 0,308

Gross public sector debt (% of GDP)

0,91 0,91 0,9 0,94 0,94 0,96 1 0,99 0,99 1 0,99 0,346

Credit (real, year-on-year)

0,93 0,92 0,87 0,69 0,65 0,63 0,44 0,77 1 0,97 0,85 0,462

Deposits (real, year-on-year)

0,98 0,98 0,96 0,65 0,65 0,58 0,19 0,07 0,31 0,57 0,95 0,885

Net foreign assets of banks (% of GDP)

0,52 0,66 0,88 0,89 0,92 0,89 0,34 0,17 0,18 0,33 0,808

Non-performing loans (% of portfolio)

0,1 0,07 0,15 0,11 0,13 0,15 0,29 0,04 0 0 0,01 0,192

Loan-to-deposit ratio

0,05 0,17 0,14 0,17 0,13 0,12 0,05 0 0 0,01 0,05 0,961

Banks' equity index (quarterly change)

0,36 0,33 0,41 0,56 0,61 0,89 0,66 0,33 0,44 0,167

Banks' external debt spread

0,16 0,19 0,95 0,42 0,26 0,12 0,82 0,49 0,61 0,58 0,5 0

Interbank interest rate

0,2 0,12 0,12 0,16 0,23 0,09 0,05 0,01 0 0,19

Net interest income

0,02 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,03 0,05 0,18 0,18 0,21 0,18 0 0,08

Banking risk (BICRA)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Banking risk (IHS)

0,39 0,35 0,28 0,24 0,22 0,2 0,19 0,18 0,43 0,53 0,5 0,333

Current account balance (% of GDP)

0,64 0,56 0,84 0,93 0,95 0,87 0,53 0,53 0,92 1 1

Foreign direct investment (% of GDP)

0,93 0,98 0,92 0,92 0,92 0,48 0,8 0,77 0,67 0,76 0,116

External debt (% of GDP)

0,94 0,92 0,85 0,95 0,95 1 1 0,98 0,91 0,97 0,96 0,884

Short-term external debt (% of reserves)

0,27 0,55 0,77 0,81 0,87 0,62 0,68 0,55 0,87 0,615

Reserves (% of GDP)

0,69 0,8 0,86 0,77 0,77 0,62 0,54 0,68 0,77 0,42 0,55 0,654

External debt service (% of exports)

0,82 0,67 0,78 0,83 0,93 0,99 0,97 0,85 0,6 0,67 0,78 0,923

Portfolio investment (% of GDP)

0,59 0,26 0,26 0,43 0,39 0,19 0 0,15 0,44 0 0,01 0

GDP per capita (change)

0,62 0,62 0,63 0,63 0,93 0,93 0,93 0,93 0,03 0,03 — 0,039

Political risk (IHS)

0,75 0,69 0,85 0,97 0,96 0,93 0,93 0,89 0,153

Geopolitical risk (GPR)

0,22 0,36 0,47 0,6 0,9 0,92 0,81 0,46 0,15 0,13 0,62 0,052

Sovereign rating

0,18 0,29 0,31 0,37 0,38 0,4 0,41 0,44 0,51 0,53 0,54 0,167

Stability/Absence of violence (percentile)

0,56 0,56 0,58 0,58 0,95 0,95 0,91 0,91 0,91 0,91 — 0,231

Time series

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1

SOURCE:Irma Alonso and Luis Molina. (2021). "A GPS navigator to monitor risks in emerging economies: the vulnerability dashboard". Documentos Ocasionales - Banco de España, 2111. https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/21/Files/do2111e.pdf.

a The risk level is indicated with shades of green (associated with lower levels of vulnerability), yellow (medium vulnerability) and red (variables in the highest risk percentiles).

Chile: situation of vulnerability (a)

Table 2

With respect to other emerging

market economies 2022 Latest ﬁgure H1 H2

Sovereign spread (bp)

0,39 0,3 0,33 0,46 0,42 0,44 0,81 0,7 0,38 0,54 0,28

Stock market (quarterly change)

0,29 0,36 0,49 0,78 0,62 0,78 0,79 0,52 0,33 0,18 0,084

Exchange rate (quarterly change)

0,46 0,31 0,41 0,79 0,48 0,81 0,21 0,28 0,9 0,53 0,8

Sovereign spread (quarterly change)

0,3 0,43 0,61 0,59 0,43 0,6 0,7 0,15 0,36 0,7 0,56 0,28

GDP (year-on-year)

0,92 0,75 0,41 0,68 0,88 0,81 0,96 0,94 0,45 0,01 0,22 0,424

Inﬂation

0,23 0,12 0,16 0,31 0,24 0,3 0,44 0,33 0,46 0,78 0,91 0,653

Industrial output

0,92 0,89 0,52 0,37 0,69 0,84 0,81 0,86 0,85 0,61 0,61 0,693

Currency overvaluation

0,27 0,29 0,39 0,24 0,22 0,07 0,01 0,04 0,11 0,02 0,03 0,23

Budget balance (% of GDP)

0,96 0,94 0,92 0,86 0,85 0,93 0,97 1 0,99 0,99 0,87 0,308

Gross public sector debt (% of GDP)

0,91 0,91 0,9 0,94 0,94 0,96 1 0,99 0,99 1 0,99 0,346

Credit (real, year-on-year)

0,93 0,92 0,87 0,69 0,65 0,63 0,44 0,77 1 0,97 0,85 0,462

Deposits (real, year-on-year)

0,98 0,98 0,96 0,65 0,65 0,58 0,19 0,07 0,31 0,57 0,95 0,885

Net foreign assets of banks (% of GDP)

0,52 0,66 0,88 0,89 0,92 0,89 0,34 0,17 0,18 0,33 0,808

Non-performing loans (% of portfolio)

0,1 0,07 0,15 0,11 0,13 0,15 0,29 0,04 0 0 0,01 0,192

Loan-to-deposit ratio

0,05 0,17 0,14 0,17 0,13 0,12 0,05 0 0 0,01 0,05 0,961

Banks' equity index (quarterly change)

0,36 0,33 0,41 0,56 0,61 0,89 0,66 0,33 0,44 0,167

Banks' external debt spread

0,16 0,19 0,95 0,42 0,26 0,12 0,82 0,49 0,61 0,58 0,5 0

Interbank interest rate

0,2 0,12 0,12 0,16 0,23 0,09 0,05 0,01 0 0,19

Net interest income

0,02 0,01 0,01 0,01 0,03 0,05 0,18 0,18 0,21 0,18 0 0,08

Banking risk (BICRA)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Banking risk (IHS)

0,39 0,35 0,28 0,24 0,22 0,2 0,19 0,18 0,43 0,53 0,5 0,333

Current account balance (% of GDP)

0,64 0,56 0,84 0,93 0,95 0,87 0,53 0,53 0,92 1 1

Foreign direct investment (% of GDP)

0,93 0,98 0,92 0,92 0,92 0,48 0,8 0,77 0,67 0,76 0,116

External debt (% of GDP)

0,94 0,92 0,85 0,95 0,95 1 1 0,98 0,91 0,97 0,96 0,884

Short-term external debt (% of reserves)

0,27 0,55 0,77 0,81 0,87 0,62 0,68 0,55 0,87 0,615

Reserves (% of GDP)

0,69 0,8 0,86 0,77 0,77 0,62 0,54 0,68 0,77 0,42 0,55 0,654

External debt service (% of exports)

0,82 0,67 0,78 0,83 0,93 0,99 0,97 0,85 0,6 0,67 0,78 0,923

Portfolio investment (% of GDP)

0,59 0,26 0,26 0,43 0,39 0,19 0 0,15 0,44 0 0,01 0

GDP per capita (change)

0,62 0,62 0,63 0,63 0,93 0,93 0,93 0,93 0,03 0,03 — 0,039

Political risk (IHS)

0,75 0,69 0,85 0,97 0,96 0,93 0,93 0,89 0,153

Geopolitical risk (GPR)

0,22 0,36 0,47 0,6 0,9 0,92 0,81 0,46 0,15 0,13 0,62 0,052

Sovereign rating

0,18 0,29 0,31 0,37 0,38 0,4 0,41 0,44 0,51 0,53 0,54 0,167

Stability/Absence of violence (percentile)

0,56 0,56 0,58 0,58 0,95 0,95 0,91 0,91 0,91 0,91 — 0,231

Time series

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1

(4)

SOURCES:IMF, OECD, Eurostat, BIS and national statistics.

a With respect to euro area and Spanish ﬁgures.

b With respect to Chilean ﬁgures.

Spain and euro area exposure to Chile (2021 unless otherwise stated)

Table 3

Euro area Spain Euro area Spain Euro area Spain Euro area Spain

1 3 8

5 5

. 0 2

. 0 1

. 0 3 . 0 1

. 2 3 . 6 3 s

d o o g f o s t r o p x E

2 4 1

6 4

. 0 1

. 0 0 . 0 2

. 1 2 . 6 )

0 2 0 2 ( s d o o g f o s t r o p m I

6 1 6

4 2

. 1 3

. 0 1

. 0 0 . 0 1

. 1 2 . 4 )

0 2 0 2 ( s e c i v r e s f o s t r o p x E

3 2 4

6 5

. 0 1

. 0 0

. 0 0 . 0 3

. 0 4 . 1 )

0 2 0 2 ( s e c i v r e s f o s t r o p m I

International Investment Position:

Foreign direct investment. Assets (2020) 57.2 21.0 0.4 1.6 0.3 3.6 37 8

Foreign direct investment. Liabilities (2020) 6.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 62 50

Portfolio investment. Assets (December 2021) 35.5 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 40 25

Portfolio investment. Liabilities (December 2021) 75.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.1 28 36

Credit exposure to Chile of BIS reporting

banks (a) (March 2022) 75.4 67.8 0.5 4.8 0.6 3.3 29 9

Claims of Chilean banks vis-à-vis residents

of the euro area or Spain (March 2022) 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 23 19

Debt of Chilean residents to banks from the euro

area or Spain (b) (March 2022) 75.4 67.8 24.0 21.6 40.0 14.0 — 1

Percentage of GDP Percentageoft otal Ranking n

b

$

(5)

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SOURCES: OECD and IMF.

Chile: structural economic data

Chart 1

Rest of the world Rest of Latin America Rest of the euro area

Spain China United States

Manufacturing Mining and quarrying Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

Spain China United States Manufacturing

Mining and quarrying Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

Net exports Investment Government consumption Private consumption

Tax and subsidies Other services Financial services Services: Public. Admin., health

Distributive trade, repairs, transportation, accomm.

& food services Construction Other industry (incl. energy) Manufacturing Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

Other Peru Mexico Colombia Chile Brazil Argentina

Spain China United States Chile

1.a Share of global GDP (%) (2021) 1.b Share of Latin American GDP (%) (2021)

1.c Breakdown of GDP: supply (%) (2021) 1.d Breakdown of GDP: demand (%) (2021)

1.e Exports of goods, by sector (%) (2021) 1.f Exports of goods, by destination (%) (2021)

1.g Imports of goods, by sector (%) (2021) 1.h Imports of goods, by origin (%) (2021)

0.3

15.7

18.6

1.4

7.0 10.1 47.0

9.8

32.2

7.5 4.7 25.3

4.2 16.2

3.3 8.7

17.0

6.1

16.1 16.1 4.3 18.2

10.3

61.0 14.4

25.3

-0.7

7.6

36.3

56.1

13.2

38.9

7.0 1.6 9.4

29.9

2.2 9.1

88.7

17.8

27.8

2.4 10.5

14.5 27.0

DOWNLOAD

SOURCES: OECD and IMF.

Chile: structural economic data

Chart 1

Spain China United States

Manufacturing Mining and quarrying Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

Spain China United States Manufacturing

Mining and quarrying Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

Net exports Investment Government consumption Private consumption

Tax and subsidies Other services Financial services Services: Public. Admin., health

Distributive trade, repairs, transportation, accomm.

& food services Construction Other industry (incl. energy) Manufacturing Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

Other Peru Mexico Colombia Chile Brazil Argentina

Spain China United States Chile

1.a Share of global GDP (%) (2021) 1.b Share of Latin American GDP (%) (2021)

1.c Breakdown of GDP: supply (%) (2021) 1.d Breakdown of GDP: demand (%) (2021)

1.e Exports of goods, by sector (%) (2021) 1.f Exports of goods, by destination (%) (2021)

1.g Imports of goods, by sector (%) (2021) 1.h Imports of goods, by origin (%) (2021)

0.3

15.7

18.6

1.4

7.0 10.1 47.0

9.8

32.2

7.5 4.7 25.3

4.2 16.2

3.3 8.7

17.0

6.1

16.1 16.1 4.3 18.2

10.3

61.0 14.4

25.3

-0.7

7.6

36.3

56.1

13.2

38.9

7.0 1.6 9.4

29.9

2.2 9.1

88.7

17.8

27.8

2.4 10.5

14.5 27.0

(6)

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SOURCES:Comisión para el Mercado Financiero and Banco de España.

a Credit and other claims on households and non-ﬁnancial corporations, excluding public entities and ﬁnancial institutions.

b 1% of any of the types of exposure.

Chile: structure of the banking sector and relevance for Spain

Chart 2

2.a Breakdown of the banking sector (March 2022): loans

Materiality threshold (b) Defaulted

Original Risk-weighted 2.c Exposures to material third countries, by type of exposure (June 2022) (a)

Foreign-owned private banks Domestic private banks Public (development) banks 2.b Breakdown of the banking sector (March 2022): deposits

Foreign-owned private banks Domestic private banks Public (development) banks

% of the total

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

18 % of the total

Scotiabank Chile: 10

Banco del Estado de Chile: 20

Banco de Crédito e Inversiones: 13 Banco de Chile: 17

Other domestic private banks: 18

Other foreign-owned private banks: 4

United Kingdom

United States

Mexico Brazil Turkey Chile Peru Colombia

Banco Santander Chile: 18

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SOURCES:Comisión para el Mercado Financiero and Banco de España.

a Credit and other claims on households and non-ﬁnancial corporations, excluding public entities and ﬁnancial institutions.

b 1% of any of the types of exposure.

Chile: structure of the banking sector and relevance for Spain

Chart 2

2.a Breakdown of the banking sector (March 2022): loans

Materiality threshold (b) Defaulted

Original Risk-weighted 2.c Exposures to material third countries, by type of exposure (June 2022) (a)

Foreign-owned private banks Domestic private banks Public (development) banks 2.b Breakdown of the banking sector (March 2022): deposits

Foreign-owned private banks Domestic private banks Public (development) banks

% of the total

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

18 % of the total

Other foreign-owned private banks: 4

United Kingdom

United States

Mexico Brazil Turkey Chile Peru Colombia

(7)

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SOURCES:Banco de España, Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch, in addition to: Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello. (2022). "Measuring geopolitical risk". American Economic Review, April, 112(4), pp. 1194-1225; and Corinna Ghirelli, Javier J. Pérez and Alberto Urtasun. (2021). "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy". Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 2(2).

a The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index is constructed drawing on the local and international press using words related to uncertainty over economic policies, based on the following methodology: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis. (2016). "Measuring economic policy uncertainty". Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), pp. 1593-1636.

b The Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index is a measure of adverse geopolitical events based on a survey of newspaper articles in the English-speaking press covering geopolitical unrest.

Chile: uncertainty and geopolitical risk indicators and sovereign ratings

Chart 3

3.a News-based indicators

Investment grade Fitch

Standard and Poor's Moody's

Chile - GPR (right-hand scale) (b) Chile - EPU, local, English-speaking and Spanish press (a)

3.b Sovereign ratings

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 B / B2

B+ / B1 BB- / Ba3 BB / Ba2 BB+ / Ba1 BBB- / Baa3 BBB / Baa2 BBB+ / Baa1

B- / B3 A- / A3 A / A2 A+ / A1 AA- / Aa3 AA / Aa2

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SOURCES:Banco de España, Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch, in addition to: Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello. (2022). "Measuring geopolitical risk". American Economic Review, April, 112(4), pp. 1194-1225; and Corinna Ghirelli, Javier J. Pérez and Alberto Urtasun. (2021). "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy". Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 2(2).

a The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index is constructed drawing on the local and international press using words related to uncertainty over economic policies, based on the following methodology: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis. (2016). "Measuring economic policy uncertainty". Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), pp. 1593-1636.

b The Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index is a measure of adverse geopolitical events based on a survey of newspaper articles in the English-speaking press covering geopolitical unrest.

Chile: uncertainty and geopolitical risk indicators and sovereign ratings

Chart 3

3.a News-based indicators

Investment grade Fitch

Standard and Poor's Moody's

Chile - GPR (right-hand scale) (b) Chile - EPU, local, English-speaking and Spanish press (a)

3.b Sovereign ratings

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 B / B2

B+ / B1 BB- / Ba3 BB / Ba2 BB+ / Ba1 BBB- / Baa3 BBB / Baa2 BBB+ / Baa1

B- / B3 A- / A3 A / A2 A+ / A1 AA- / Aa3 AA / Aa2

(8)

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SOURCES:Banco de España and Thomson Reuters.

a Ratio of export prices to import prices.

Chile: exchange rates, stock market, sovereign spreads, long-term interest rates, ﬁnancial conditions and ﬁnancial stress

Chart 4

4.b Stock exchange index

S&P CLX IGPA

4.c Sovereign spread (EMBI+)

EMBI+

Terms of trade (a) Nominal effective Real effective Against the euro Against the dollar 4.a Exchange rates of the Chilean peso

January 2012 = 100 ( depreciation)↓

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22

January 2012 = 100

bp 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

230 280 330 380 430 480

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a Ratio of export prices to import prices.

Chile: exchange rates, stock market, sovereign spreads, long-term interest rates, ﬁnancial conditions and ﬁnancial stress

Chart 4

4.b Stock exchange index

S&P CLX IGPA

4.c Sovereign spread (EMBI+)

EMBI+

Terms of trade (a) Nominal effective Real effective Against the euro Against the dollar 4.a Exchange rates of the Chilean peso

January 2012 = 100 ( depreciation)↓

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

January 2012 = 100

bp 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

230 280 330 380 430 480

(9)

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a Prepared using a principal component methodology drawing on changes in the stock market, short and long-term interest rates, the price of commodities and exchange rate ﬂuctuations.

b Prepared on the basis of the volatilities and spreads of six market segments, standardised and grouped discounting any cross-correlations.

Chile: exchange rates, stock market, sovereign spreads, long-term interest rates, ﬁnancial conditions and ﬁnancial stress (cont'd)

Chart 4

4.d Long-term interest rate in Chilean pesos

10-year rate

FCI (a)

FSI (b)

4.e Financial conditions index

4.f Financial stress index

-2

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Dec-01 Dec-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 Dec-13 Dec-16 Dec-19 Dec-22

Historical average = 0 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

%

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-20 Jan-23

0 - 1

Tightening of ﬁnancial conditions

Increase in ﬁnancial market stress

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a Prepared using a principal component methodology drawing on changes in the stock market, short and long-term interest rates, the price of commodities and exchange rate ﬂuctuations.

b Prepared on the basis of the volatilities and spreads of six market segments, standardised and grouped discounting any cross-correlations.

Chile: exchange rates, stock market, sovereign spreads, long-term interest rates, ﬁnancial conditions and ﬁnancial stress (cont'd)

Chart 4

4.d Long-term interest rate in Chilean pesos

10-year rate

FCI (a)

FSI (b)

4.e Financial conditions index

4.f Financial stress index

-2

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Dec-01 Dec-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 Dec-13 Dec-16 Dec-19 Dec-22

Historical average = 0 1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

%

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-20 Jan-23

0 - 1

Tightening of ﬁnancial conditions

Increase in ﬁnancial market stress