Investigaciones Económicas, Ultraserfinco S.A. Carrera 7 #73-55, Piso 6. Bogotá DC. Tel: +57 (1) 325-5560 E-mail: investigacioneseconomicas@ultraserfinco.com
Índices COLEQTY 1,029 828 -19.5% -0.05% 784 1,112 COLCAP 1,513 1,202 -20.5% -0.07% 1,141 1,679 COLSC 1,059 946 -10.7% -1.15% 944 1,193 Energía Canacol 5,000 5,950 19.0% -3.09% 2,955 10,300 Ecopetrol 2,080 1,305 -37.3% 1.56% 1,285 3,210 Pacific Rubiales 15,100 6,920 -54.2% -4.95% 5,100 35,460 Mineria Mineros 2,400 1,900 -20.8% 0.00% 1,400 2,825 Electricidad Celsia 5,870 3,655 -37.7% -1.22% 3,140 6,200 EEB 1,700 1,770 4.1% -1.12% 1,525 1,790 ISA 8,630 6,830 -20.9% 0.00% 5,260 9,402 Isagen 2,965 2,825 -4.7% -0.18% 2,550 3,420 Telecom. ETB 507 568 12.0% -0.35% 435 589 Industrial Coltejer 1,900 2,100 10.5% 0.00% 1,900 2,100 Enka 12.60 11.50 -8.7% 0.00% 11.1 13.0 Fabricato 11.20 14.50 29.5% -2.03% 8.0 18.8 Financiero Bancolombia 27,640 23,620 -14.5% 1.37% 21,940 29,400 PF Bancolombia 28,640 24,460 -14.6% -0.16% 23,340 30,400 Bogotá 66,100 58,900 -10.9% -0.17% 53,240 72,154 BVC 21.00 16.50 -21.4% 0.00% 15.4 24.2 Corficolombiana 38,386 37,700 -1.8% 0.00% 32,960 40,346 PF Davivienda 28,100 24,000 -14.6% 2.13% 21,800 32,100 Occidente 42,000 36,500 -13.1% 0.00% 28,500 42,540 Consumo Avianca Holdings 3,420 1,815 -46.9% -1.89% 1,750 3,955 Éxito 29,200 13,100 -55.1% 0.61% 12,620 30,700 Nutresa 28,600 20,680 -27.7% -0.58% 18,680 29,500 Terpel 17,600 12,340 -29.9% 0.00% 12,340 18,600 Holdings Grupo Argos 20,500 17,600 -14.1% -1.79% 15,020 22,940 Pf Grupo Argos 20,000 17,000 -15.0% -0.23% 14,320 22,700 Grupo Aval 1,305 1,180 -9.6% 3.51% 1,035 1,440 PF Grupo Aval 1,280 1,165 -9.0% -0.43% 1,045 1,445 Grupo Sura 40,000 35,260 -11.9% 0.46% 31,620 42,900 PF Grupo Sura 39,500 34,280 -13.2% -0.06% 31,600 42,360 Valorem 385 445 15.6% 0.00% 335 460 Infraestructura Cemargos 10,200 9,440 -7.5% -0.63% 7,500 10,860 PF Cemargos 9,650 9,040 -6.3% -1.09% 7,500 10,420 Cemex Latam 16,000 12,100 -24.4% -0.82% 10,400 18,660 Conconcreto 1,450 1,185 -18.3% -2.87% 1,070 1,510 El Condor 1,650 1,100 -33.3% -4.35% 1,080 1,650 Odinsa 7,381 8,800 19.2% 0.00% 6,073 9,500
*Frente al precio justo de Serfinco *** Co lo r verde hace referencia al valo r máximo y el co lo r ro jo al valo r mínimo ** Info rmació n o btenida de B lo o mberg basado en las pro yeccio nes de lo s analistas
Cierre 2014
Variación %
Precio
Cierre
Min 52S
Precio en
Max 52S
Rango 52S
Año
Corrido
1 día
Evolución
Últ. 30
Días***
Histórico
Índices COLEQTY 16.77 1.15 3.46% 265.28 COLCAP 17.22 1.15 3.44% 223.36 COLSC 33.65 - 2.90% 12.44 Energía Canacol - 0.72 0.00% 10,617 - - - 0.84 Ecopetrol 7.15 0.74 6.39% 1,631 1,670 27.97% Subpond. 53.66 Pacific Rubiales - 0.34 0.00% 8,224 - - - 2.19 Mineria Mineros 27.55 0.86 1.67% - - - - 0.50 Electricidad Celsia 15.42 0.75 2.04% 5,603 - - - 2.63 EEB 16.57 1.89 7.05% 1,820 - - - 16.25 ISA 20.38 1.02 3.11% 9,179 - - - 7.57 Isagen 17.64 1.80 5.95% 3,210 3,020 6.90% Neutral 7.70 Telecom. ETB 5.04 0.61 3.75% - - - - 2.02 Industrial Coltejer - 0.24 0.00% - - - - -Enka - 0.33 0.00% - - - - 0.14 Fabricato - 0.19 0.00% - - - - 0.13 Financiero Bancolombia 12.09 1.35 3.00% 29,600 29,100 23.20% Neutral 23.10 PF Bancolombia 12.52 1.40 2.90% 30,273 30,120 23.14% Neutral 23.10 Bogotá 13.04 1.48 3.81% 66,100 66,100 12.22% Neutral 19.51 BVC 11.08 2.81 4.24% 17.87 - - - 0.31 Corficolombiana 19.18 1.78 5.98% 41,040 41,040 8.86% Sobrepond. 8.42 PF Davivienda 10.05 1.53 2.80% 30,197 30,580 27.42% Sobrepond. 10.66 Occidente 25.45 1.83 2.14% - - - - 5.69 Consumo
Avianca Holdings 3.83 0.63 2.19% 3,752 4,920 171.07% Sobrepond. 1.82
Éxito 12.78 0.72 1.99% 26,466 28,200 115.27% Sobrepond. 5.86
Nutresa 25.20 1.16 1.62% 26,574 25,100 21.37% Neutral 9.52
Terpel 20.56 1.45 1.96% 16,310 - - - 2.24
Holdings
Grupo Argos 36.88 0.93 1.31% 20,889 22,620 28.52% Sobrepond. 13.84
Pf Grupo Argos 35.63 0.90 1.34% 17,750 22,480 32.24% Sobrepond. 13.84
Grupo Aval 13.61 1.72 4.55% 1,330 1,385 17.37% Sobrepond. 26.19
PF Grupo Aval 13.44 1.70 4.64% 1,323 1,385 18.88% Sobrepond. 26.19
Grupo Sura 30.19 0.89 1.06% 42,241 40,160 13.90% Sobrepond. 20.18
PF Grupo Sura 29.35 0.87 1.07% - 40,360 17.74% Sobrepond. 20.18
Valorem 15.05 0.84 1.14% - - - - 1.19
Infraestructura
Cemargos 51.34 1.65 1.75% 10,759 10,280 8.90% Sobrepond. 12.76
PF Cemargos 44.13 1.58 3.33% 10,500 10,280 13.72% Sobrepond. 12.76
Cemex Latam 11.99 2.01 0.00% 16,661 21,820 80.33% Sobrepond. 6.73
Conconcreto 20.75 1.01 1.75% 1,660 2,005 69.20% Sobrepond. 1.08
El Condor 11.33 0.91 2.18% - 1,680 52.73% Sobrepond. 0.63
Odinsa 15.74 2.04 6.77% - 10,210 16.02% Sobrepond. 1.73
*M últiplo s de lo s índices o btenido s de B lo o mberg. M últiplo s de las accio nes calculado s en Serfinco **P o tencial co n respecto al precio de SERFINCO ***M últiplo s calculado s co n dato s al cierre de 2014
Persp.
PVL***
Dividend
Yield
Potencial
Valorización**
Precio
Justo
Mercado
Cap. Bursatil
(COP Bill)
Precio
Justo
Serfinco
RPG***
Múltiplos*
Investigaciones Económicas, Ultraserfinco S.A. Carrera 7 #73-55, Piso 6. Bogotá DC. Tel: +57 (1) 325-5560 E-mail: investigacioneseconomicas@ultraserfinco.com
Índices COLEQTY 828 872 848 824 848 857 911 790 820 829 838 867 COLCAP 1,202 1,272 1,235 1,198 1,235 1,251 1,332 1,150 1,194 1,207 1,221 1,265 COLSC 946 1,023 992 961 990 986 1,044 946 973 981 990 1,017 Energía Canacol 5,950 7,056 6,140 5,223 6,159 5,681 5,955 5,010 5,721 5,940 6,159 6,870 Ecopetrol 1,305 1,544 1,426 1,308 1,417 1,488 1,816 1,285 1,403 1,440 1,477 1,595 Pacific Rubiales 6,920 10,059 8,407 6,754 8,287 8,487 9,005 6,920 8,234 8,640 9,046 10,360 Mineria Mineros 1,900 1,977 1,935 1,893 1,934 1,860 1,819 1,800 1,867 1,888 1,908 1,975 Electricidad Celsia 3,655 4,016 3,780 3,544 3,788 3,845 4,628 3,180 3,468 3,558 3,647 3,935 EEB 1,770 1,791 1,730 1,670 1,734 1,697 1,660 1,670 1,716 1,730 1,744 1,790 ISA 6,830 7,326 6,899 6,472 6,916 6,821 7,555 5,420 6,104 6,315 6,526 7,210 Isagen 2,825 3,230 2,982 2,735 2,981 2,910 2,952 2,720 2,900 2,955 3,010 3,190 Telecom. ETB 568 584 571 557 571 557 501 546 560 564 568 582 Industrial Coltejer 2,100 2,027 1,927 1,826 2,100 2,098 1,977 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,100 Enka 11.5 12.2 11.5 10.7 11.3 11.6 11.9 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.9 Fabricato 14.5 18.2 15.9 13.7 15.0 15.7 13.5 14.3 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.5 Financiero Bancolombia 23,620 25,575 24,286 22,997 24,257 24,892 25,528 22,960 23,808 24,070 24,332 25,180 PF Bancolombia 24,460 26,992 25,605 24,218 25,543 26,201 26,670 24,100 25,040 25,330 25,620 26,560 Bogotá 58,900 59,698 58,478 57,258 58,639 58,772 60,827 55,220 56,779 57,260 57,741 59,300 BVC 16.5 16.5 16.1 15.6 16.1 16.1 18.1 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.5 Corficolombiana 37,700 38,426 37,110 35,794 37,195 36,775 36,650 34,100 35,590 36,050 36,510 38,000 PF Davivienda 24,000 26,335 24,338 22,341 24,388 24,659 25,881 22,160 23,581 24,020 24,459 25,880 Occidente 36,500 36,622 34,618 32,614 35,310 34,535 37,155 32,000 33,719 34,250 34,781 36,500 Consumo Avianca Holdings 1,815 2,367 2,124 1,880 2,103 2,485 3,299 1,815 2,105 2,195 2,285 2,575 Éxito 13,100 17,658 15,659 13,660 15,494 17,698 22,827 13,020 15,152 15,810 16,468 18,600 Nutresa 20,680 21,617 20,481 19,345 20,557 20,800 23,478 18,800 19,747 20,040 20,333 21,280 Terpel 12,340 16,005 13,907 11,809 13,290 14,263 15,734 12,340 13,379 13,700 14,021 15,060 Holdings Grupo Argos 17,600 18,883 17,782 16,681 17,850 17,166 17,651 15,020 16,296 16,690 17,084 18,360 Pf Grupo Argos 17,000 17,955 17,019 16,083 17,094 16,521 17,359 14,800 15,839 16,160 16,481 17,520 Grupo Aval 1,180 1,225 1,162 1,100 1,170 1,176 1,214 1,035 1,106 1,128 1,149 1,220 PF Grupo Aval 1,165 1,232 1,180 1,128 1,181 1,185 1,218 1,055 1,122 1,143 1,163 1,230 Grupo Sura 35,260 36,402 34,799 33,196 34,841 35,368 35,440 32,240 33,676 34,120 34,564 36,000 PF Grupo Sura 34,280 35,899 34,277 32,655 34,316 34,804 35,001 31,940 33,376 33,820 34,264 35,700 Valorem 445 469 428 387 457 438 412 425 438 443 447 460 Infraestructura Cemargos 9,440 10,160 9,722 9,283 9,724 9,557 9,244 8,700 9,227 9,390 9,553 10,080 PF Cemargos 9,040 9,771 9,286 8,800 9,291 9,061 8,919 8,200 8,784 8,965 9,146 9,730 Cemex Latam 12,100 12,885 11,973 11,061 12,015 11,931 13,416 10,500 11,394 11,670 11,946 12,840 Conconcreto 1,185 1,264 1,194 1,123 1,208 1,184 1,216 1,135 1,179 1,193 1,206 1,250 El Condor 1,100 1,339 1,172 1,005 1,147 1,172 1,417 1,080 1,149 1,170 1,191 1,260 Odinsa 8,800 10,063 8,452 6,841 9,128 8,294 8,087 8,800 8,972 9,025 9,078 9,250
0.0%
38.2%
50.0%
FIBONACCI 30D
Precio
Bandas de Bollinger
Superior
MA20
Inferior
Medias Móviles
-6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% Pacific Rubiales Canacol Avianca Holdings Grupo Argos Celsia EEB PF Cemargos Cemex Latam Cemargos Nutresa PF Grupo Aval Pf Grupo Argos Isagen Bogotá PF Bancolombia COLCAP PF Grupo Sura Corficolombiana ISA Terpel Grupo Sura Éxito Bancolombia Ecopetrol PF Davivienda PF Bancolombia, 13.72 Grupo Sura, 9.77 Ecopetrol, 8.54 Grupo Argos, 6.77 Nutresa, 6.31 Bancolombia, 5.84 PF Grupo Aval, 5.63 Cemargos, 4.76 PF Grupo Sura, 4.42 Corficolombiana, 4.00 ISA, 3.36 Pf Grupo Argos, 3.31 EEB, 3.06 Éxito, 3.03 Bogotá, 2.92 Isagen, 2.92 PF Davivienda, 2.80 Cemex Latam, 2.54 PF Cemargos, 2.47 Celsia, 1.73 Holdings, 29.90 Financiero, 29.27 Energía, 9.14 Servicios de Consumo, 10.14 Electricidad, 11.07 Infraestructura, 9.77
Color
Rendimiento
x ≤ -3% -3% < x ≤ 2% -2% < x ≤ 1% -1% < x < 0% 0.0% 0% < x < 1% 1% ≤ x < 2% 2% ≤ x < 3% 3% ≤ xInvestigaciones Económicas, Ultraserfinco S.A. Carrera 7 #73-55, Piso 6. Bogotá DC. Tel: +57 (1) 325-5560 E-mail: investigacioneseconomicas@ultraserfinco.com
Cierre 2014
Precio
YTD
1 día
Por geografía
Por industria
Por objetivo
0.52%
0.35%
0.35%
*Retorno Total i ncl uye di vi dendos
NAV: Va l or Neto del Fondo
AUM: Activos a dmi ni s tra dos por el Fondo
(Pes os )
153,560
190,440
24.0%
-1.1%
(Pes os )
38,080
30,760
-19.2%
-6.8%
(Pes os )
55,120
60,300
9.4%
-1.3%
(Pes os )
34,740
41,740
20.1%
-1.0%
85,820
84,920
-1.0%
-0.3%
(Pes os )
275,680
342,860
24.4%
-0.4%
(Pes os )
62,480
70,140
12.3%
-1.8%
(Pes os )
43,920
41,660
-5.1%
-0.1%
(Pes os )
57,180
59,880
4.7%
-0.7%
(Pes os )
125,520
139,780
11.4%
-0.6%
(Pes os )
-17.9%
-1.5%
(Pes os )
50,340
32,180
-36.1%
0.2%
(Pes os )
45,920
47,980
4.5%
-0.2%
37.8%
0.6%
15.2%
-0.7%
ETF
23
Ma rket Vectors Gol d
Mi ners ETF
Ma rket Vectors
Juni or Gol d Mi ners
Ma rket Vectors
Agri bus i nes s ETF
Ma rket Vectors Oi l
Servi ces ETF
Ma rket Vectors
Bi otech ETF
Ma rket Vectors
Pha rma ceutica l ETF
Gl oba l X
SuperDi vi dend ETF
Gl oba l X
SuperIncome
Gl oba l X MLP ETF
26
1076.19
52
4508.16
36
15.56
31
42
Gl oba l X Guru Index
ETF (USA)
AUM
(USD Mn)
No.
Inv.
(Pes os )
30,720
10.55
128.76
101
13.48
241.33
46
19.69
840.93
Al to di vi dend yi el d; Acci ones
preferenci a l es USA.
Al to di vi dend yi el d; MLP s ector
energético.
Al to di vi dend yi el d; 100
compa ñía s gl oba l es
0.35%
61.47
309.70
25
0.35%
109.88
636.94
Acci ones y ADRs l i s tados en
USA. Bi otecnol ogía .
Acci ones y ADRs l i s tados en
USA. Fa rma céutica s .
0.55%
27.20
982.05
26
0.35%
45.03
Acci ones i nterna ci ona l es .
Productos e i ns umos
Acci ones y ADRs l i s tados en
USA. Servi ci os petrol eros .
19.29
1263.40
61
0.55%
13.40
Acci ones i ntena ci ona l es .
Mi nera s juni or de oro y/o pl a ta.
Acci ones y ADRs . Mi nera s de
oro.
0.72%
0.55%
28
49
67
20
0.52%
Acci ones USA, enfoque a vencer
el merca do
Acci ones Vi etna m. Todo el
merca do.
Gl oba l X MSCI
Col ombi a ETF
Ma rket Vectors
Rus s i a ETF
Ma rket Vectors
Bra s i l Sma l l Ca p ETF
Ma rket Vectors
Wi de Moa t ETF
Ma rket Vectors
Vi etna m ETF
(Pes os )
34,960
48,180
(Pes os )
74,260
85,580
25,220
Precio
Variación %
22.81
59.81
1647.02
58.27
731.16
410.78
182.51
NAV
(USD)
Factor
Costos
Exposición
Acci ones Col ombi a
Acci ones Rus i a . Todo el
merca do.
Acci ones Bra s i l . Sma l l -Ca p.
Acci ones USA. Todo el merca do
(Wi de MOAT).
8.22
15.33
10.13
27.49
0.55%
0.62%
0.60%
0.49%
1 día
5 días
30 días
YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
16,049.1
0.30%
-1.72%
-7.49%
-9.95%
S&P500 Index
1,884.1
0.12%
-3.02%
-9.40%
-8.49%
México Bolsa Index
42,121.5
0.54%
-2.57%
-3.11%
-2.37%
Brasil Bovespa
44,131.8
0.40%
-4.61%
-5.27%
-11.75%
Colombia COLEQTY
828.0
-0.05%
-0.93%
-2.81%
-19.55%
Chile IPSA
3,657.4
0.12%
-2.54%
-3.19%
-5.03%
Perú S&P/BVL
9,894.2
0.57%
-2.06%
-6.30%
-33.12%
S&P Mila40
458.8
0.00%
-2.73%
-5.22%
-27.96%
Bloomberg European 500
229.5
-0.63%
-2.08%
-10.89%
-1.84%
FTSE 100 Index
5,909.2
-0.83%
-0.45%
-7.72%
-10.00%
CAC 40 Index
4,343.7
-0.31%
-1.91%
-11.06%
1.66%
IBEX 35 Index
9,393.9
0.00%
-1.64%
-12.88%
-8.62%
DAX Index
9,450.4
-0.35%
-1.26%
-11.53%
-3.62%
Nikkei 225 Index
16,930.8
-4.05%
-6.31%
-16.28%
-2.98%
Hang Seng Index
20,556.6
-2.97%
-5.69%
-11.27%
-12.91%
Petróleo WTI
44.85
0.97%
-2.12%
9.95%
-15.79%
Petróleo Brent
47.96
1.31%
-2.28%
1.70%
-16.34%
Oro
1,127.5
-0.40%
0.25%
-0.56%
-4.84%
Plata
14.65
0.37%
-0.81%
-4.38%
-6.70%
Euro
1.125
0.07%
1.19%
1.19%
-6.99%
Peso/Dólar
3,109.8
-0.40%
1.24%
2.82%
30.82%
Variación %
Alternativos
Monedas
Índice
Nivel
America
Europa
Asia
Investigaciones Económicas, Ultraserfinco S.A. Carrera 7 #73-55, Piso 6. Bogotá DC. Tel: +57 (1) 325-5560 E-mail: investigacioneseconomicas@ultraserfinco.com