C E D E
Centro de Estudios sobre Desarrollo Económico
Documentos CEDE
MARZO DE 2010
8
Kidnaps and Migration: Evidence from Colombia
Catherine Rodríguez
Edgar Villa
0 5 25
75 95 100
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Serie Documentos Cede, 2010-8
Marzo de 2010
© 2010, Universidad de los Andes–Facultad de Economía–Cede Calle 19A No. 1 – 37, Bloque W.
Bogotá, D. C., Colombia
Teléfonos: 3394949- 3394999, extensiones 2400, 2049, 3233 [email protected]
http://economia.uniandes.edu.co
Ediciones Uniandes
Carrera 1ª Este No. 19 – 27, edificio Aulas 6, A. A. 4976 Bogotá, D. C., Colombia
Teléfonos: 3394949- 3394999, extensión 2133, Fax: extensión 2158 [email protected]
Edición, diseño de cubierta, preprensa y prensa digital: Proceditor ltda.
Calle 1ª C No. 27 A – 01 Bogotá, D. C., Colombia
Teléfonos: 2204275, 220 4276, Fax: extensión 102 [email protected]
Impreso en Colombia – Printed in Colombia
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37
Figure 1
Source: Pais Libre
Figure 2
Source: Banco de la República 0
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total Reported Kidnaps in
Colombia (1996-2007
)0 0,001 0,002 0,003 0,004 0,005
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
38 Source: Encuesta Social Etapa III-VII
Figure 4
-0,60% -0,40% -0,20% 0,00% 0,20% 0,40% 0,60% 0,80% 1,00%
No Education Primary Secondary College
PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF EDUCATION IN COLOMBIA IF NO THREAT OF KIDNAPPING EXISTED
39
Table 1: Violence and Migration Characteristics
Number of Households
Percentage of Households
Households victims of any type
of crime 2.654 15,80%
Specific Crime
Kidnapping 28 0,17%
Robbery 2.129 12,67%
Homicide 87 0,52%
Others 410 2,44%
Total Number of Households 16.801 100%
Household where one of its
members migrated 1.455 10,27%
Type of migration
Domestic 616 4,35%
International 839 5,92%
Total Number of Households 14.172 100%
Table 2: Summary statistics
Mean Sd
Education of household head 8,01 4,47
Expenditure per capita (Millions) 0,08 0,09
Number of people in household 4,03 1,80
4XDOLW\RIKRXVHRUDSDUWPHQW 0,03 0,18
+HDGRIKRXVHKROGLVDSDWURQ 0,39
-0RWRUYHKLFOHRZQHUVKLS 0,14
-+RXVHKROGEXVLQHVVRZQHUVKLS 0,02
-2ZQHUVKLSRIWKHKRXVHWKH\OLYH 0,54
-+DVDOZD\VOLYHGLQWKHVDPHFLW\ 0,61
-6RPHRQHLQWKHKRXVHKROGLVXQHPSOR\HG 0,15
-Number of people in household unemployed 0,19 0,51
Proportion of migrating households that choose an
international destinations 0,55 0,50
3URSRUWLRQRIKRXVHKROGVWKDWIHHOLQVHFXUHLQWKHFLW\ 42,18
-Gini Coefficient within cluster 0,59 0,09
Mean monthly expenditure within cluster (Millions) 0,08 0,06
Rate of homicide captures (10,000 inhabitants) 0,78 0,40
'HQRWHVGXPP\YDULDEOHV
40
Table 3: Probability of Being Kidnapped
Dependent binary variable: Household member being a victim of a k idnap
(1) (2) (3)
Rate of Homicide Capture (per 10,000 inhabitants) -2.351***
[0.648]
Rate of Antinarcotics Operations (per 10,000 inhabitants) 9,489
[12.894]
Feeling of insecurity in the city 0.472* 0.469* 0.477*
[0.278] [0.273] [0.277]
Mean monthly expenditure (in each Cluster) 0,222 0,121
[1.615] [1.990]
Gini coefficient (in each cluster) -0,545 0,028
[1.326] [1.624]
Education of the Household Head 0,013 0,013 0,014
[0.034] [0.034] [0.033]
Monthly expenditure -1,378 -1,382 -1,296
[1.016] [1.042] [1.083]
Monthly expenditure squared 0,158 0,178 0,140
[0.408] [0.381] [0.407]
Number of members of the household 0,015 0,016 0,021
[0.040] [0.039] [0.038]
4XDOLW\RIKRXVHRUDSDUWPHQW 0.871*** 0.862*** 0.865***
[0.290] [0.295] [0.293]
+HDGRI+RXVHKROGLVDERVV 0,322 0,317 0,319
[0.236] [0.232] [0.227]
2ZQHUVKLSRIPRWRUYHKLFOH 0,385 0,382 0,382
[0.245] [0.244] [0.245]
2ZQHUVKLSRIEXVLQHVVZLWKPRUHWKDQHPSOR\HHV 0.868*** 0.866*** 0.833**
[0.326] [0.321] [0.342]
2ZQHUVKLSRIWKHKRXVHWKH\OLYHLQ -0,154 -0,155 -0,157
[0.232] [0.231] [0.229]
Always lived in same city -0.640*** -0.638*** -0.651**
[0.247] [0.246] [0.253]
Netwrok Effect (Proportion International Migration) 0,171 0,274 0,568
[0.494] [0.554] [0.629]
6RPHRQHLQWKHKRXVHKROGLVXQHPSOR\HG 0,507 0,508 0,495
[0.321] [0.322] [0.320]
Observations 12.627 12.627 12.627
Pseudo R-squared
All specifications include time (round survey), strata and city dummies.
'HQRWHVGXPP\YDULDEOHV
Cluster Standard errors in parenthesis. Cluster defined by city, round of survey and strata. (***), (**) and (*) denote significance levels at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively.
*Source: Encuesta Social Etapa III-VIII
41
Table 4: Probability of International and Domestic Migration
Dependent binary variable: Household member migrated internationally or domestically in past 6 months
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Actual Kidnap 0.919** 0,492
[0.421] [0.464]
Parametric Kidnap risk 8.122*** 5.185* 4.715* -2,094 -4,646 -3,306
(2,080) (2,509) (2,606) (2,780) (3,569) (3,305)
Feeling of insecurity in the city 0.096** 0.088* 0.09* 0.145*** 0.155*** 0.151**
[0.047] (0,049) (0,049) [0.053] (0,056) (0,056)
Education of the Household Head 0.026*** 0.025*** 0.026*** 0,008 0,010 0,008
[0.007] (0,007) (0,007) [0.006] (0,007) (0,007)
Monthly expenditure 0,333 0,258 0,370 0,028 -0,113 0,001
[0.374] (0,386) (0,394) [0.407] (0,500) (0,512)
Monthly expenditure squared 0,225 0,191 0,212 0.589*** 0.571* 0.588*
[0.237] (0,233) (0,247) [0.197] (0,288) (0,285)
Number of members of the household 0.021* 0,018 0,020 0.037** 0.038** 0.037**
[0.012] (0,014) (0,015) [0.017] (0,014) (0,015)
4XDOLW\RIKRXVHRUDSDUWPHQW 0,055 -0,038 0,010 -0.287** -0.255* -0.251*
[0.122] (0,127) (0,128) [0.117] (0,147) (0,143)
+HDGRI+RXVHKROGLVDERVV -0,013 -0,027 -0,022 0,014 0,028 0,022
[0.061] (0,050) (0,051) [0.045] (0,056) (0,056)
2ZQHUVKLSRIPRWRUYHKLFOH 0.297*** 0.282*** 0.283*** 0,015 0,026 0,027
[0.053] (0,067) (0,068) [0.086] (0,080) (0,079)
2ZQHUVKLSRIEXVLQHVVZLWKPRUHWKDQHPSOR\HHV 0.254* 0,159 0,158 -0,255 -0,153 -0,170
[0.141] (0,168) (0,169) [0.171] (0,194) (0,201)
2ZQHUVKLSRIWKHKRXVHWKH\OLYHLQ 0.104** 0.109** 0.104* -0,066 -0,070 -0,068
[0.048] (0,048) (0,048) [0.088] (0,054) (0,055)
Always lived in same city -0,028 -0,020 -0,013 -0.161** -0.168*** -0.175***
[0.040] 0,054 (0,055) [0.070] (0,060) (0,060)
Network Effect (Proportion International Migration) 0.993*** 0.971*** -1.074*** -1.065***
[0.233] (0,163) [0.168] (0,195)
6RPHRQHLQWKHKRXVHKROGLVXQHPSOR\HG 0,035 0,036 (0,049) (0,061)
[0.071] (0,075) [0.080] (0,087)
Gini coefficient (in each cluster) 0,061 0,033 -0,581 -0,585
[0.316] (0,472) [0.472] (0,588)
Mean monthly expenditure (in each Cluster) -1.371** -1,377 -1.506** -1,502
[0.582] (0,933) [0.655] (1,245)
Observations 12.629 12.629 12.629 12.629 12.629 12.629
Log Likelihood -2899 -2833 -2815 -2096 -2066 -2043
All specifications include time (round survey), strata and city dummies.
'HQRWHVGXPP\YDULDEOHV%RRWVWUDSVWDQGDUGHUURUVDUHLQSDUHQWKHVLVIRUPRGHOVDQG
(***), (**) and (*) denote significance levels at 1%, 5% and 10% respectively. *Source: Encuesta Social Etapa III-VIII
Probit Regressions
