IV BOTIN FOUNDATION WATER WORKSHOP
RE-THINKING WATER AND FOOD SECURITY PARADIGMS (SANTANDER 22 TO 24TH SEPTEMBER 2009)
WATER IN THE FOOD AND VALUE CHAIN
INCREASING THE BENEFICIAL USE OF WATER
Jan Lundqvist
Stockholm International Water Institute, SIWI
ISSUES
•
Food supply historically high
• Drivers and implications
• Carryover stocks of water or food?
• Supply and value chain
Take home message
Food and water security cannot be achieved with a sole focus on
production and supply
Reduce losses and waste in the
food/value chain is sensible & doable
Reduce risk for farmers
CHANGES IN FOOD SUPPLY, 1961 – 2001
1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000
USA EU 15 Mexico Brazil Nigeria Kenya India Bangla Indone China
Average per captia food supply (kilo calories per person per day)
For every country the columns represent : 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Animal calories
Vegetal calories
Source: Mats Lannerstad, Linköping Between 2007 – 2008, world food supply increased by 7% (a new record) Parallel with this, the number of undernourished increased by 100+ million
Additional storage peaked in the 70s
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Up to 1900 1901-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-1998
Reservoirs (number per year)
Other regions Asia
Europe North America
Source: Mats Lannerstad
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
BEIRA: monthly rainfall 1908 to 2009
1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918
1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929
1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940
1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Variability of rainfall in Beira - one hundred years
Source: JeanMarc Faures, FAO
There is no Such Thing as an Average
(Bhavani basin and dam/reservoir, India)
”Dams as Modern Temples of India” (Jawaharlal Nehru)
Source: Mats Lannerstad, Linköping University
0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600
1950/51 1953/54 1956/57 1959/60 1962/63 1965/66 1968/69 1971/72 1974/75 1977/78 1980/81 1983/84 1986/87 1989/90 1992/93 1995/96 1998/99 2001/02 2004/05
Precipitation (millinetres)
Ground water – if you
have the means
Rainfed agriculture;
green water augmentation & management
Highly unpredict- able & variable precipitation;
Rapid return flow
Land use that
permits infiltration of rainwater;
soil moisture = green water
resource Is soil moisture enough to over- come effects of dry spells?
OPTIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY
• Storing water
• Storing food
• Procuring food
What about the
”one-acre farmer”?
- Food crops?
- Other?
A view on the world water situation:
“…
we have enjoyed a series of water „bubbles‟
to support economic growth over the past 50 years or so….. We are now on the verge of
water bankruptcy in many places with no way of paying the debt back”.
World Economic Forum, January 2009
Population, GDP and water requirements
population GDP water
(billion) (billion $, withdrawals 2005 ppp)*) (km3)
1800: (T. R. Malthus) < 1 913 (1820)
1900: 1.65 700
1950: just after WWW 2.5 7,006
2000: 6 56,593 (2005) 3,500
2050: 9.2 – 9.5 193,318**) ?
Garry Becker: 1980 – 2007: World Real Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.4% annually on average
*) Hillebrand, E. 2009. ”Poverty Growth, and Inequality over the next 50 years” Expert meeting on how to feed the World in 2050, FAO
**) Trend Growth projection
Meat and milk demand/supply & GDP growth, 1961-2000
Meat
Milk
World average:
< 40 kg (2003)
Source: Charlotte de Fraiture, IWMI
Another 2-3 billion in a generation - with dreams
- want/demand/right to sense development
• Food production: The amount in the field
• Food supply: The amount available on the market; production minus losses before market, conversion
• Food demand: The amount
bought/procured by households, public institutions and other social entities
• Food consumption: the intake of food, i.e. the amount of food eaten Losses, spoilage, conversions and wastage along the food chain
What Food for What
Food/Nutrition Security?
Losses & waste at a high cost
Monetary
US – estimated US $100 billion annually UK – calculated £ 10 billion annually of
household waste (retail value)
Water - all food produced consumes water
Green house gas emission – from production throughout the supply chain, incl disposal
Income and security
Food prices, new demands and climate change
”One Country’s Table Scraps, Another Country’s Meal”, NYT, May 18, 2008
112 pounds of food
wastage per month for a family of four
World Food Summit, Rome, June 2008:
”Boost production to ease the food crisis, says UN chief
Food production needs to rise by 50 per cent by 2030 to meet rising demand,"
Ban Ki-Moon
Given:
- Scarcity/bubbles/bankrupcy/stochastic character/…
- Competition for water and land for non-food supply - Very high energy input agriculture is not replicable - High rates of losses and waste of food
- Environmental implications of food production….
- Overeating >>undernourishment
What is a sensible strategy for water and food security?
”Enough is enough – tonight, the bonus bubble burst”
(Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt on
behalf of 27 EU Heads of State, September 16, 2009)
WIDENING GAP:
FOOD SUPPLY - FOOD INTAKE REQUIREMENTS
1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000
USA EU 15 Mexico Brazil Nigeria Kenya India Bangla Indone China
Average per captia food supply (kilo calories per person per day)
For every country the columns represent : 1961, 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001 Animal calories
Vegetal calories
Source: Mats Lannerstad, Linköping Daily per cap kcal intake require- ment to ”lead an active & healthy life”
Norm for national food supply:
2,700 – 2,800 kcal
Food Security …
” …exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient , safe and nutritious
food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences
for an active and healthy life” Rome Declaration (FAO, 1996) - How much is ”sufficient”?
2,000 – 2,200 kcal/person, day on average
- What to do when preferences deviate from ”sufficient”?
Value of water and value of food
A dollar could buy
-1,200 kcal of potato chips - 875 kcal of soda
- 250 kcal of vegetables - 170 kcal of fresh fruit
More expensive to keep thin and to go for a healthy diet
Another perception and policy a generation or two ago
WRAP study (UK): HHs throw away 1/3 of the food they have bought, 60% of which is ”perfectly fit for consumption”
Swedish school children throw away more of the food they like
Who will push the new agenda to deal with bubbles?
Scientists?
Politicians/policy makers?
The person in the street?
The corporate sector?
The young/next generation?
Media?
Keeping in mind:
- Doers
- Investors
- executing complex and unpopular decisions - mobilise support & compliance
Where is
the road ahead?
Increased efficiency of the rains Better seeds, fertilizers & tools Harvest and post harvest techn.
Food processing, value added
“Contract” farming
Reduce losses and waste Consumption “adjustments”
