Vulnerabilidad a la pobreza y educación en Bolivia. Una aproximación a partir de pseudo-paneles

(1)

Documento online:

http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.bo/publicaciones-documentos-de-trabajo-iisec-bolivia

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

6

(7)

(8)

8

2 3

4 5

6

(9)

9

(10)

10 𝑦𝑡

Ρ = 𝑃(𝑦

1

≤ 𝑧

1

| 𝑧

0

≤ 𝑦𝑜 ≤ 𝑣

0

)

(11)

(12)

12

(13)

(14)

(15)

(16)

16

(17)

17

12

(18)

18

13 14

(19)

19

18

19

20

21

(20)

20 𝜀

𝑖,𝑡=0

, 𝜀

𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

)

𝑦

𝑖𝑡

𝑥

𝑖𝑡

𝛽

𝑡

𝜀

𝑖𝑡

(21)

21 𝑥𝑖𝑡

x

i,t=0

= x

i,t=s

ε

i,t

)

ρ

𝜌𝑦𝑖,𝑡=0,𝑦𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

= 𝛼 + 𝛿𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=0

+ 𝜂

𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

𝑦

𝑖,𝑡

(22)

22 𝜂𝑖,𝑡

𝜌

𝑦𝑖,𝑡=0 𝑦𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

=

𝑐𝑜𝑣(𝑦_𝑖,𝑡=0,𝑦_{𝑖,𝑡=𝑠}) √𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑦𝑖,𝑡=0) 𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑦𝑖,𝑡=𝑠)

= √

𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑦𝑖,𝑡=0) 𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑦𝑖,𝑡=𝑠)

𝛿

𝑐𝑜𝑣(𝑦𝑖,𝑡=0, 𝑦𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

)

𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑦𝑖,𝑡)

δ

(23)

23 𝜌 =

𝜌_{𝑦𝑖,𝑡=0 𝑦𝑖,𝑡=𝑠} √𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑦_𝑖,𝑡=0) 𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑦𝑖,𝑡=𝑠)− 𝛽𝑡=0′ 𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑥𝑖)𝛽𝑡=𝑠 𝜎_𝜀𝑡=0 𝜎_{𝜀𝑡=𝑠}

𝜌

𝑦𝑖,𝑡=0 𝑦𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑦

𝑖,𝑡

)

𝛽

𝑡

𝑣𝑎𝑟(𝑥

𝑖

)

𝜎

𝜀𝑡

𝑧

𝑡

𝑃(𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=0

< 𝑧

𝑡=0

& 𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

> 𝑧

𝑡=𝑠

)

𝑣

𝑡

𝑃(𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=0

< 𝑧

𝑡=0

& 𝑧

𝑡=𝑠

< 𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

< 𝑣

𝑡=𝑠

)

(24)

24 𝑃(𝜀

𝑖,𝑡=0

< 𝑧

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0

𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

& 𝜀

𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

> 𝑧

𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

𝑡=𝑠

𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

)

𝜀

𝑖,𝑡

ρ

𝜎

𝜀𝑡

ρ

𝑃

𝑗

= Φ

𝑡=0

(𝑑

𝑡=0

𝑧𝑡=0−𝛽𝑡=0′ 𝑥𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎_𝜀𝑡=0

, 𝑑

𝑡=𝑠

𝑧𝑡=𝑠−𝛽𝑡=𝑠′ 𝑥𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎_{𝜀𝑡=𝑠}

, 𝜌

𝑑

)

Φ

𝑡=0

(. )

𝛽

_𝑡′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝑑

𝑡

𝜌𝑑

𝑑𝑡=0 𝑑𝑡=𝑠

ρ

(25)

25 Pr(𝑇𝑖𝑗) > 𝑢

Pr (𝑇𝑖𝑗)

𝑢

𝑦

_𝑖∗

𝑦

_𝑖∗

= 𝑥

𝑖

′𝛽 + 𝜇

𝑖

27

(26)

26 𝑦

𝑖∗

𝑥

𝑖′

𝛽 = 𝐸(𝑦

𝑖∗

|𝑥)

𝑥𝑖′

𝑖

𝛽

𝜇

𝑖

𝑦

𝑖

= 1 𝑠𝑖 𝑦

𝑖∗

> 0

𝑦

𝑖

= 0 𝑠𝑖 𝑦

𝑖∗

≤ 0

𝑃𝑟(𝑦

𝑖

= 1|𝑥) = Λ(𝑥

𝑖

𝛽) =

𝑒𝑥𝑖𝛽 1+𝑒𝑥𝑖𝛽

𝑦

𝑖

Λ(𝑥

𝑖

𝛽)

𝜕𝑃𝑖

𝜕𝑥𝑖

= Λ(𝑥

𝑖

𝛽)[1 − Λ(𝑥

𝑖

𝛽) ]𝛽

𝛽

𝑦

𝑖

= 1

𝑥

𝑖

(27)

27

29

30

(28)

28

32 33

(29)

29

35

(30)

(31)

(32)

32

Total Bolivia 2009 2011 2013 2016

Pobre Vulnerable No pobre Pobre Vulnerable No pobre Pobre Vulnerable No pobre Pobre Vulnerable No pobre Total

2007

Pobre 37.53 11.32 6.3 38.33 13.28 3.54 35.38 15.81 3.97 26.61 14.89 13.65 55.15

(0.54) (0.08) (0.05) (0.48) (0.10) (0.04) (0.46) (0.13) (0.05) (0.46) (0.13) (0.08) (0.55)

Vulnerable 7.09 6.46 7.16 4.06 9.01 7.65 2.3 9.11 9.29 5.83 5.95 8.93 20.71

(0.06) (0.06) (0.09) (0.04) (0.08) (0.07) (0.03) (0.08) (0.09) (0.04) (0.05) (0.12) (0.17)

No pobre 3.55 5.86 14.73 0.79 4.75 18.6 0.25 3.28 20.6 4.16 6.01 13.97 24.14

(0.05) (0.09) (0.29) (0.01) (0.08) (0.34) (0.01) (0.06) (0.38) (0.05) (0.09) (0.32) (0.42)

Total 48.17 23.64 28.19 43.18 2.04 29.78 37.94 28.2 33.86 36.59 26.86 36.54 100

(0.48) (0.11) (0.39) (0.44) (0.11) (0.37) (0.47) (0.10) (0.44) (0.43) (0.07) (0.43)

Área urbana 2009 2011 2013 2016

2007

Pobre 25.96 10.31 6.4 27.67 11.79 3.21 25.2 13.95 3.52 16.44 12.43 13.81 42.67

(0.38) (0.07) (0.05) (0.36) (0.09) (0.04) (0.35) (0.12) (0.05) (0.30) (0.12) (0.08) (0.46)

Vulnerable 8.18 7.74 8.87 5.01 10.84 8.95 2.91 11.08 10.8 6.31 7.08 11.4 24.79

(0.05) (0.03) (0.07) (0.04) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.05) (0.08) (0.05) (0.03) (0.09) (0.07)

No pobre 4.61 7.8 20.12 1.07 6.37 25.1 0.35 4.44 27.75 5.25 7.99 19.29 32.54

(0.04) (0.07) (0.31) (0.01) (0.07) (0.36) (0.01) (0.06) (0.35) (0.03) (0.07) (0.33) (0.41)

Total 38.75 25.86 35.4 33.75 29 37.25 28.46 29.46 42.08 28 27.5 44.5 100

(0.41) (0.07) (0.40) (0.37) (0.06) (0.37) (0.32) (0.08) (0.38) (0.31) (0.08) (0.39)

Área rural 2009 2011 2013 2016

2007

Pobre 62.71 13.52 6.08 61.53 16.52 4.26 57.93 19.86 4.93 48.75 20.26 13.31 82.32

(0.74) (0.13) (0.14) (0.64) (0.14) (0.07) (0.62) (0.16) (0.09) (0.67) (0.11) (0.17) (0.54)

Vulnerable 4.74 3.66 3.44 1.99 5.02 4.82 0.98 4.84 6.01 4.78 3.5 3.55 11.83

(0.07) (0.08) (0.14) (0.05) (0.11) (0.12) (0.03) (0.11) (0.15) (0.06) (0.08) (0.14) (0.26)

No pobre 1.23 1.64 2.98 0.18 1.21 4.46 0.05 0.77 5.04 1.77 1.71 2.38 5.85

(0.04) (0.07) (0.19) (0.01) (0.05) (0.23) (0.01) (0.04) (0.25) (0.05) (0.08) (0.17) (0.29)

Total 68.68 18.82 12.5 63.7 22.76 13.54 58.55 28.47 15.98 55.29 25.47 19.23 100

(33)

(34)

34

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 Po rc e n ta je (% ) Homb re Muje r <prima ria Prim. Comp . Sec. Inc. Sec. Comp . Sup. inc Sup. Comp .

Indíge na

NoIn díge

na Urb

ana_Rura l

Altip

lano_Valle_Llano

1941 -195 2 1953 -196 2 1963 -197 2 1973 -198 2 Características

Pobre a Vulnerable 07/09 Pobre a Vulnerable 07/11 Pobre a Vulnerable 07/13 Pobre a Vulnerable 07/16

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Po rc e n ta je (% ) Homb re Mu jer <prima ria Prim. Comp . Sec. Inc. Sec. Comp . Sup. inc Sup. Comp . Indí gena NoIn díge na Urb

ana_Rura l

Altip

lanoValleLlan o 1941 -195 2 1953 -196 2 1963 -197 2 1973 -198 2 Características

(35)

35

37 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Po rc e n ta je (% ) Homb re Mu jer <prima ria Prim. Comp . Sec. Inc. Sec. Comp . Sup. inc Sup. Comp . Indí gena NoIn díge na Urb

ana_Rura l

Altip

lano_Valle_Llano

1941 -195 2 1953 -196 2 1963 -197 2 1973 -198 2 Características

No pobre a Vulnerable 07/09 No pobre a Vulnerable 07/11 No pobre a Vulnerable 07/13 No pobre a Vulnerable 07/16

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Po rc e n ta je (% ) Homb re Muje r <prima ria Prim. Comp . Sec. Inc. Sec. Comp . Sup. inc Sup. Comp . Indí gena NoIn díge na Urb

ana_Rura l

Altip lanoValleLlan

o 1941 -195 2 1953 -196 2 1963 -197 2 1973 -198 2 Características

(36)

(37)

37

(38)

38

.2 .4 .6 .8 1 Pr (V u ln e ra b le 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo .4 .6 .8 1 Pr (V u ln e ra b le 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 Pr (V u ln e ra b le 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo .2 .4 .6 .8 1 Pr (V u ln e ra b le 1 2 )

(39)

39 a)

2007-2009

b) 2007-2011

c)2007-2013

d) 2007-2016

39 .1 5 .2 .2 5 .3 .3 5 .4 Pr (V u lp 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo .1 5 .2 .2 5 .3 .3 5 Pr (V u lp 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo 0 .2 .4 .6 Pr (V u lp 1 2 )

(40)

(41)

(42)

(43)

(44)

(45)

(46)

(47)

(48)

(49)

(50)

50 𝑷

𝟏

)

𝑃

₁

= 𝑃(𝑦

_𝑖,𝑡=0

< 𝑧

_𝑡=0

& 𝑦

_{𝑖,𝑡=𝑠}

< 𝑧

_𝑡=𝑠

)

= Φ

_𝑡=0

(

𝑧

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=0

,

𝑧

_𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

_𝑡=𝑠′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, 𝜌)

𝑷

𝟐

)

𝑃

₂

= 𝑃(𝑦

_𝑖,𝑡=0

< 𝑧

_𝑡=0

& 𝑧

_𝑡=𝑠

< 𝑦

_{𝑖,𝑡=𝑠}

< 𝑣

_𝑡=𝑠

)

= Φ

_𝑡=0

(

𝑧

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=0

,

𝑣

_𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

_𝑡=𝑠′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, 𝜌)

− Φ

_𝑡=0

(

𝑧

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=0

,

𝑧

𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

𝑡=𝑠′

𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, 𝜌)

𝑷

𝟑

)

𝑃

3

= 𝑃(𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=0

< 𝑧

𝑡=0

& 𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

> 𝑣

𝑡=𝑠

)

= Φ

_𝑡=0

(

𝑧

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=0

, −

𝑣

𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

𝑡=𝑠′

𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, −𝜌)

𝑷

𝟒

)

𝑃

4

= 𝑃(𝑧

𝑡=0

< 𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=0

< 𝑣

𝑡=0

& 𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

< 𝑧

𝑡=𝑠

)

= Φ

_𝑡=0

(

𝑣

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=0

,

𝑧

𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

𝑡=𝑠′

𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, 𝜌)

− Φ

𝑡=0

(

𝑧

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0′

𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

𝜀_𝑡=0

,

𝑧

𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

𝑡=𝑠

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

(51)

51 𝑷

𝟓

)

𝑃

₅

= 𝑃(𝑧

_𝑡=0

< 𝑦

_𝑖,𝑡=0

< 𝑣

_𝑡=0

& 𝑧

_𝑡=𝑠

< 𝑦

_{𝑖,𝑡=𝑠}

< 𝑣

_𝑡=𝑠

)

= Φ

_𝑡=0

(

𝑣

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=0

,

𝑣

_𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

_𝑡=𝑠′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, 𝜌)

− Φ

𝑡=0

(

𝑣

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0′

𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

𝜀_𝑡=0

,

𝑧

𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

𝑡=𝑠

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, 𝜌) − 𝑃

2

𝐏

𝟔

)

𝑃

₆

= 𝑃(𝑧

_𝑡=0

< 𝑦

_𝑖,𝑡=0

< 𝑣

_𝑡=0

& 𝑦

_{𝑖,𝑡=𝑠}

> 𝑣

_𝑡=𝑠

)

= Φ

_𝑡=0

(

𝑣

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=0

, −

𝑣

𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

𝑡=𝑠′

𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, −𝜌)

− Φ

𝑡=0

(

𝑧

_𝑡=0

− 𝛽

_𝑡=0′

𝑥

_𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

𝜀_𝑡=0

, −

𝑣

𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

𝑡=𝑠

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, −𝜌)

𝑷𝟕)

𝑃

7

= 𝑃(𝑣

𝑡=0

< 𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=0

& 𝑦

𝑖,𝑡=𝑠

< 𝑧

𝑡=𝑠

)

= Φ

𝑡=0

(−

𝑣

_𝑡=0

− 𝛽

_𝑡=0′

𝑥

_𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

𝜀_𝑡=0

,

𝑧

𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

𝑡=𝑠

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, −𝜌)

𝑷

𝟖

)

𝑃

₈

= 𝑃(𝑦

_𝑖,𝑡=0

> 𝑣

_𝑡=0

& 𝑧

_𝑡=𝑠

< 𝑦

_{𝑖,𝑡=𝑠}

< 𝑣

_𝑡=𝑠

)

= Φ

𝑡=0

(−

𝑣

_𝑡=0

− 𝛽

_𝑡=0′

𝑥

_𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

𝜀_𝑡=0

,

𝑣

𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

𝑡=𝑠

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, −𝜌)

− Φ

_𝑡=0

(−

𝑣

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=0

,

𝑧

_𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

_𝑡=𝑠′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=𝑠

, −𝜌)

𝑷

𝟗

)

𝑃

₉

= 𝑃(𝑦

_𝑖,𝑡=0

> 𝑣

_𝑡=0

& 𝑦

_{𝑖,𝑡=𝑠}

> 𝑣

_𝑡=𝑠

)

= Φ

_𝑡=0

(−

𝑣

𝑡=0

− 𝛽

𝑡=0

′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

𝜎

_𝜀_𝑡=0

, −

𝑣

_𝑡=𝑠

− 𝛽

_𝑡=𝑠′

_𝑥

𝑖,𝑡=0

(52)

(53)

(54)

(55)

55 Cohortes

Sexo

Hombres

Mujeres

Edad 2007

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-65

25-34

35-44

45-54

55-65

Edad 2009

27-36

37-46

47-56

57-67

27-36

37-46

47-56

57-67

Variable

Idioma materno

0.884 -1.551 -1.403 -0.854 -0.571 -0.012

-1.82

-0.056

Años de educación 1.872

-0.3

1.946 0.817 -0.614 -1.977 0.807 -0.357

Área de residencia

3.783

3.729

2.434

4.651

2.748

2.772

1.273

0.757 Año de nacimiento 0.677 -0.852 -1.001 -0.967

0.21 -0.231 -0.413 1.658

Cohortes

Sexo

Hombres

Mujeres

Edad 2007

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65

Edad 2011

29-38 39-48 49-58 59-69 29-38 39-48 49-58 59-69

Variable

Idioma materno

0.344 -0.924 -1.49

0.391 -2.076 -0.734 -0.956 0.632

Años de educación -0.738 0.094 1.871 0.1536 0.44 -1.265 0.925 -0.72

Área de residencia 0.584 2.101 1.192 0.747 1.344

1.1 0.764 0.256

Año de nacimiento 0.096 -1.151 -1.074

-1.7

0.456 -0.201 -0.28 1.006

Cohortes

Sexo

Hombres

Mujeres

Edad 2007

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65

Edad 2013

31-40 41-50 51-60 61-71 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-71

Variable

Idioma materno

2.158 2.453 1.498 2.733 -0.199 1.591 0.617 3.281

Años de educación -5.78 -4.172 -2.554 -3.082 -1.835 -4.778 -1.333 -3.584

Área de residencia -2.717 -1.623 -2.894 -0.944 -0.197 -0.282 -1.958 -0.973

(56)

56 Cohortes

Sexo

Hombres

Mujeres

Edad 2007

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65

Edad 2016

34-43 44-53 54-63 64-74 34-43 44-53 54-63 64-74

Variable

Idioma materno

0.296 -1.947 -1.938 0.736 -1.24 0.359 -1.877 0.574

Años de educación -2.967 -1.225 2.749 -1.887 -0.033 -1.822 1.538 -1.011

Área de residencia -2.66 -1.865 0.182 -0.872 0.106 0.443 -1.013 -0.825

Año de nacimiento -1.966

-1.6

-0.976 -2.204 0.23

0.462 -0.166 -0.152

2009

2011

2013

2016

Educación

0.0664***

0.0544***

0.0538***

0.0586***

(0.00381)

(0.00239)

(-0.00220)

(0.00242)

Año de nacimiento

-0.0151***

-0.0172***

-0.0178***

-0.0131***

(0.00156)

(0.000962)

(0.000887)

(0.00094)

Idioma materno

-0.256***

-0.174***

-0.178***

-0.154***

(0.0447)

(0.0277)

(0.0265)

(0.026)

Área de residencia

0.675***

0.655***

0.661***

0.698***

(0.0435)

(0.03)

(0.0313)

Sexo

0.194***

0.0608**

0.0694***

-0.0523**

(0.0431)

(0.0264)

(0.0228)

(0.0256)

Región de residencia 2

0.221***

0.268***

0.206***

0.0887***

(0.0469)

(0.0274)

(0.0254)

Región de residencia 3

0.525***

0.362***

0.356***

0.141***

(0.0434)

(0.0291)

(0.0261)

(0.0282)

Constante

5.505***

5.963***

6.194***

6.248***

(0.069)

(0.0442)

(0.0421)

(0.0422)

N

2908

6123

6798

7003

𝑹

𝟐

_0.338

_0.314

_0.305

_0.269

(57)

57 Año

2009

2011

2013

2016

Asimetría

-0.49

-0.21

-0.46

-0.49

Curtosis

4.25

3.89

4.65

4.18

Características Pobres

Vulnerables a la pobreza

No

pobres Pobres

No

No pobres

Sin educación Educación baja Educación media Educación alta

2009

Sexo del jefe de

hogar (mujer) 23.42 35.5 41 13.93 21.38 30.3 15.63 20.77 28.25 10.34 15.85 16.48 Área de

residencia (urbana)

31.18 50.37 69 70.65 71.5 81.82 94.48 90.95 91.67 99.43 97.36 97.07

Etnicidad

(indígena) 72.96 35.32 15.33 60.2 19.66 4.04 28.04 16.17 6.3 8.04 5.28 4.4 Proporción de

ocupados 64.49 57.65 51.31 52.36 52.96 48.01 46.57 47.4 47.63 48.89 47.96 47.93 Fuente de

ingresos única 66.11 51.12 41 57.46 47.67 42.76 43.22 45.99 43.29 43.1 44.15 43.59 Tipo de contrato 5.17 7.06 7.33 12.69 15.23 14.14 33.1 33.83 39.02 52.3 52.83 54.21

Asalariado 19.66 24.16 31 35.82 40.29 39.73 53.33 53.71 55.28 59.2 60.75 61.54

Independientes 76.58 66.54 56 59.45 53.07 48.15 38.62 36.64 32.11 35.63 31.7 31.11

Sin

remuneración 0.52 0.37 0.67 0.75 0.49 1.01 0.69 0.44 0.41 0 0 0 Proporción

(58)

58

2011

hogar (mujer) 25.23 23.55 25.87 22.93 23.35 20.77 25.54 23.88 26.25 19.19 16.87 15.61 Área de

18.73 43.17 50.19 65.47 68.96 75.72 94.21 95.36 93.75 98.99 99.2 98.51

Etnicidad

ingresos única 72.46 53.58 48.84 64.92 49.45 41.21 48.93 46.93 41.04 45.45 42.57 43.12 Tipo de contrato 4.64 5.46 5.98 11.05 15.11 14.7 35.84 35.16 37.71 53.54 53.41 53.9

Asalariado 17.34 21.5 21.81 36.74 39.01 33.23 59.23 56.88 51.67 62.63 61.44 61.34

Independientes 80.5 70.31 67.37 58.29 54.4 55.27 33.05 34.33 35.83 31.82 31.32 31.23

Sin

ingreso laboral 87.47 85.92 84.11 90.79 89.4 87.32 87.9 86.59 83.42 90.33 89.12 88.78

2013

20.52 42.71 49.41 63.88 67.73 77.12 93.41 94.13 93.58 98.32 99.12 97.79

Etnicidad

ingresos única 72.99 53.77 50 66.27 54.07 41.69 50.45 47.34 41.82 46.37 43.42 43.54 Tipo de contrato 5.09 5.53 6.08 11.64 15.7 15.05 35.91 35.41 37.47 54.75 54.38 53.88

Asalariado 18.67 22.28 21.18 35.82 41.28 34.48 58.64 58.17 51.76 63.69 62.28 61.25

Independientes 79.63 69.85 67.84 59.7 54.07 54.86 34.77 33.94 35.2 30.73 31.58 31.36

Sin

remuneración 0.15 0.67 0.98 0.3 0 1.57 0.68 0.37 0.41 0 0 0 Proporción

ingreso laboral 88.27 85.36 83.73 91.33 90.69 87.48 88.62 87.64 82.83 90.42 89.6 88.86

2016

39.2 27.26 79.39 73.9 66.73 77.68 92.93 92.68 89.48 99.04 99.21 97.1

Etnicidad

ingresos única 60.58 65.35 43.89 55.92 53.27 47.32 45.12 44.75 43.96 52.88 41.9 43.84 Tipo de contrato 4.75 5.75 10.69 13.16 12.67 13.39 32.2 33.76 36.9 52.88 54.15 53.62

Asalariado 20.63 20.2 30.53 37.5 34.26 35.42 54.39 54.3 51.9 64.42 61.26 60.87

Independientes 72.79 74.88 59.54 54.38 57.62 57.14 35.37 35.67 37.41 28.85 30.43 31.52

Sin

(59)

59

Nivel máximo de

educación del hogar 2007-2009 Int.

Conf. 2007-2011 Int.

Conf. 2007-2013 Int.

Conf. 2007-2016

Int. Conf. Vulnerables a la pobreza 0.0313*** [0.0277 0.0264*** [0.0223 0.0172*** [0.0129 0.0374*** [0.0336

(0.0018) 0.0350] (0.0021) 0.0306] (0.0011) 0.0215] (0.0061) 0.0413]

Vulnerables que caen en la pobreza

-0.0117*** [-0.0141 0.0116*** [0.009 0.0101*** [0.0077 -0.0294*** [-0.0318

(0.0012) -0.0094] (0.0013) 0.0142] (0.0012) 0.0125] (0.0012) -0.027]

Pobre crónico -0.024***

[-0.0258 -0.0244*** [-0.026 -0.0258*** [-0.0274 -0.0273*** [-0.0075

(0.0009) -0.0223] (0.0008) -0.0227] (0.0008) -0.0242] (0.0012) -0.0250]

Descendentes 0.0092*** [0.0069 0.0254*** [0.0232 0.0206*** [0.0184 -0.0080*** [-0.0106

(0.0012) 0.0114] (0.0011) 0.0276] (0.0011) 0.0228] (0.0013) -0.0544]

Ascendentes 0.0132***

[0.0110 -0.0057*** [-0.0089 -0.0066*** [-0.0097 0.0284*** [0.0252

(0.0011) 0.0155] (0.0016) -0.0024] (0.0016) -0.0035] (0.0016) 0.0316]

No pobre/ no pobre

0.0409*** [0.0396 0.0387*** [0.0374 0.0392*** [0.0379 0.0395*** [0.0382

(60)

60 a)

2007-2009

b) 2007-2011

c)2007-2013

d) 2007-2016

0 .2 .4 .6 Pr (P o b re 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo 0 .2 .4 .6 Pr (P o b re 1 2 )

(61)

61 a)

2007-2009

b) 2007-2011

c)2007-2013

d) 2007-2016

a)

2007-2009

b) 2007-2011

c)2007-2013

d)2007-2016

.

.2 5 .3 .3 5 .4 .4 5 Pr (D e sc e n d e n te 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo 0 .2 .4 .6 Pr (D e sc e n d e n te 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Pr (D e sc e n d e n te 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo .3 .3 5 .4 .4 5 .5 Pr (D e sc e n d e n te 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 Pr (A sc e n d e n te 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo .3 .3 5 .4 .4 5 Pr (A sc e n d e n te 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo .2 .4 .6 .8 Pr (A sc e n d e n te 1 2 )

(62)

62 a)

2007-2009

b) 2007-2011

c)2007-2013

d)2007-2016

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 Pr (N o p o b re 1 2 )

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Nivel educativo 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 Pr (N o p o b re 1 2 )