Towards the exploitation and commercialization of tidal current energy conversion systems: an economic approach
Texto completo
(2)
(3) UNIVERSIDAD DE CASTILLA-LA MANCHA Escuela de Ingenieros Industriales de Albacete. Hacia la Explotación y Comercialización de Sistemas de Aprovechamiento de la Energı́a de las Corrientes Marinas: Un Enfoque Económico Tesis Doctoral en Economı́a y Empresa. AUTOR:. Eva Segura Asensio DIRECTORES:. Rafael Morales Herrera y José Andrés Somolinos Sánchez Albacete, 2018.
(4)
(5) A mis padres. A Rafa.
(6)
(7) Agradecimientos. Me gustarı́a que estas lı́neas sirvieran para expresar mi más profundo y sincero agradecimiento a todas aquellas personas e instituciones que, con su ayuda, han participado en la elaboración del presente trabajo. A mis directores de tesis, Rafael Morales y José Andrés Somolinos, quiero agradecerles la orientación, el apoyo, la confianza, el seguimiento y la supervisión llevada a cabo durante la realización de esta tesis. Del mismo modo, también quiero agradecer al grupo de investigación GIT-ERM de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid y al grupo de investigación LoUISE de la Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha su soporte técnico y la financiación recibida para la consecución de estos estudios. A mis padres, quiero agradecerles su lucha continua por ofrecerme las oportunidades que ellos no tuvieron y que, con un desinterés abrumador, me han facilitado a lo largo de toda mi vida, para poder cumplir todos mis sueños y objetivos. Gracias, pues mi camino en la vida es el que es, por la educación que me habéis proporcionado, de no ser ası́, no serı́a la persona que soy hoy en dı́a. A Rafa, mi marido, pues su presencia en mi vida hace que ésta tenga sentido. Su apoyo continuo, su incondicionalidad, sin restricciones ni condiciones y su lealtad, hacen que caminar junto a él sea todo un sueño..
(8)
(9) Contents. 1 Introduction. 1. 1.1. Framework of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 1. 1.2. Brief state of the art . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 2. 1.3. Tidal energy concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5. 1.3.1. Basic concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5. 1.3.2. Resource assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5. 1.4. Challenges of tidal energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8. 1.5. Motivation, objectives and contributions of the Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 9. 1.6. Thesis organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 10. 2 Strategic Analysis for Tidal Current Energy Conversion Systems in the European Union. 13. 2.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 13. 2.2. Political and legal analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 15. 2.2.1. International framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 16. 2.2.2. EU framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 17. 2.2.3. Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 17. Economic analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 20. 2.3.1. Economic factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 21. 2.3.2. Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 23. Social analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 25. 2.3. 2.4. i.
(10) ii. CONTENTS. 2.5. 2.6. 2.7. 2.4.1. Role of the different agents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 26. 2.4.2. Sensitization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 26. 2.4.3. Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 27. 2.4.4. Job creation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 28. 2.4.5. European cooperation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 29. 2.4.6. Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 29. Technological analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 31. 2.5.1. Main technical barriers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 31. 2.5.2. Technology integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 38. 2.5.3. Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 39. Environmental analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 48. 2.6.1. Common potential impacts shared with other offshore energy projects . . . . .. 49. 2.6.2. Specific impacts related to TECs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 51. 2.6.3. Identification and quantification of the environmental effects . . . . . . . . . .. 53. 2.6.4. Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 53. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 54. 3 Economic-Financial Modeling for Tidal Energy Projects. 57. 3.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 57. 3.2. Economic-financial model description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 59. 3.2.1. Cost breakdown structure for marine current harnessing projects . . . . . . . .. 60. 3.2.2. Annual sales . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 71. 3.2.3. Financing structure of the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 74. 3.2.4. Forecast balance, forecast income statement, and forecast sources and application of funds of the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 74. 3.2.5. Analysis of the economic and financial ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 77. 3.2.6. Sensitivity analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 79. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 80. 3.3. 4 Installation and Maintenance Maneuvers in First Generation Tidal Energy Converters. 83. 4.1. 83. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..
(11) CONTENTS. iii. 4.2. General details on installation and maintenance maneuvers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 84. 4.3. Manual installation and maintenance maneuvers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 87. 4.4. Automated installation and maintenance maneuvers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 93. 4.4.1. TEC modifications to perform automated maneuvers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 94. 4.4.2. Procedures for automated installation and maintenance maneuvers . . . . . . .. 94. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 97. 4.5. 5 Case Study. 101. 5.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101. 5.2. Parameters defined for the case study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101. 5.3. 5.4. 5.5. 5.2.1. Alderney Race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102. 5.2.2. Configuration of the proposed first generation tidal energy farm . . . . . . . . . 102. 5.2.3. Installation procedures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103. 5.2.4. Maintenance procedures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104. 5.2.5. Annual energy produced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106. 5.2.6. Economic-financial parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107. Numerical results from the point of view of the levelized cost of energy . . . . . . . . . 107 5.3.1. Definition of the levelized cost of energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108. 5.3.2. Results for first generation TECs with manual maneuvers . . . . . . . . . . . . 109. 5.3.3. Results for first generation TECs with automated maneuvers . . . . . . . . . . 112. 5.3.4. Comparative analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113. Numerical results from the economic-financial point of view . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 5.4.1. Results for first generation TECs with manual maneuvers . . . . . . . . . . . . 116. 5.4.2. Results for first generation TECs with automated maneuvers . . . . . . . . . . 120. 5.4.3. Comparative sensitivity analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128. 6 Summary, Conclusions, Contributions and Future Research. 129. 6.1. Thesis summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129. 6.2. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131. 6.3. Contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133. 6.4. Future research suggestions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135.
(12) iv. CONTENTS. A Results of the Forecast Balance, the Forecast Income Statement and Forecast Sources and Application of Funds 137 A.1 Manual maneuvers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 A.2 Automated maneuvers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146.
(13) List of Figures. 1.1. Sustainable development of marine renewable energy in Europe [25]. . . . . . . . . . .. 4. 1.2. The effect of the moon on the tidal range [40]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 6. 1.3. Ocean current map [42]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 7. 1.4. High level challenges [75]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 8. 2.1. PESTEL framework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 15. 2.2. LCOE for different energy technologies [24]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 22. 2.3. Support mechanisms depending on the maturity of the market and the level of deployment [150]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 23. 2.4. Job creation per MW of ocean energy installed capacity (wave and tidal) by 2050 [121]. 29. 2.5. Typical marine energy device development trajectories [237]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 2.6. Typical TEC for marine current harnessing: (a) Horizontal axis device with parallel axis to the flow [240]; (b) Vertical axis device (Kobold turbine) [277]; (c) Horizontal axis device with perpendicular axis to the flow [270]; (d) Oscillating hydrofoil [271]; (e). 32. Helical screw [272] and; (f) Tidal kite [42, 164]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 34. 2.7. TEC foundation types [75]: (a) Monopile; (b) Piloted; (c) Gravity and; (d) Floating. .. 34. 2.8. Two different mooring systems based on wires and buoys designed by our research group: (a) Underwater TEC with Y structure (denominated as GESMEY project [278, 279]) and; (b) Underwater moored multi-rotor TEC with polygonal structure (denominated as Hive-TEC project [280]). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v. 35.
(14) vi. LIST OF FIGURES. 2.9. Representative tidal current energy harnessing prototypes: (a) SeaGen Device [300]; (b) Andritz Hydro Hammerfest HS1000 device [301]; (c) Atlantis Resources Corporation AR1000 device [302]; (d) OpenHydro tidal turbine [303]; (e) Pulse-Stream 100 device [271] and; (f) Flumill tidal energy converter [272]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 39. 2.10 (a) Simulation of a controlled emersion maneuver (Procodac Project) and; (b) GESMEY prototype in a controlled immersion/emersion experiment (Procodac Project). .. 41. 2.11 (a) Torpedo with the modular drive system of the GESMEY prototype and; (b) Torpedo performing an experimental emersion maneuver. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 42. 2.12 General view of a PTO prototype design (Procodac Project). . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 43. 2.13 Hive-TEC design with central nacelle. It is composed of: a rotor hub, a sealing system, a thrust bearing, a planetary gear, a generator and an electrical brake. . . . . . . . . .. 43. 2.14 Distributed control architecture for an underwater device composed of three torpedoes.. 43. 2.15 (a) Online signal filtering scheme based on the algebraic method and; (b) Comparison between filtering response signals in an underwater application (measurement of the water column above a submerged body). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 44. 2.16 Underwater simulation of the unit carrying out the system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 45. 2.17 a) Cables and buoy connection; b) Tidal Energy Converter (GESMEY) transport; c) Real view of the TEC (GESMEY) transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 45. 2.18 Real underwater carrying out the system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 46. 2.19 Hive-TEC-6FR design in operation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 46. 2.20 Definition of magnitude levels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 53. 2.21 Global environmental matrix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 54. 3.1. Economic-financial model for marine current harnessing projects. . . . . . . . . . . . .. 60. 3.2. Cost and sub-costs for the proposed methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 61. 3.3. Distribution of the main elements within the nacelle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 65. 3.4. Supporting TEC structure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 66. 3.5. Summary of the computation of the annual energy produced (AEP). . . . . . . . . . .. 72. 3.6. Computation of the the cash-flow for stakeholders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 77. 4.1. Installation sequence at tidal farm level: (a) Join the umbilical cable to the platform by means of a cable-laying vessel; (b) Umbilical cable-laying process; (c) Connection of the umbilical cable with the TEC structure and; (d) Cable-laying process of the next umbilical cable. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 86.
(15) LIST OF FIGURES. vii. 4.2. Example of a vessel installing a cable [449]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 87. 4.3. (a) ROV making a trench and placing the cable inside [450] and; (b) ROV burying the cable [450]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 88. 4.4. Installation of the submarine cables: (a) Installation of the base; (b) ROV performing the trenching process of the first umbilical cable; (c) ROV starting the burying process of the umbilical cable and; (d) ROV finishing the burying process of the umbilical cable. 89. 4.5. Example of TEC used for manual installation and maintenance maneuvers. . . . . . .. 4.6. Installation of the structure of the TECs: (a) Position required to install the base; (b) Connection of the umbilical cables to the TEC structure; (c) Controlled descent of. 90. the TEC structure; (d) Fixing the TEC structure to the seabed; (e) Placement of the concrete ballasts and; (f) Installation of the TEC structure once the process has been completed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7. Installation of the gondole of the TECs: (a) Cable-recovery process; (b) Connection of the cables to the tool in charge of lowering the gondole; (c) Controlled descent of the gondole; (d) Process of inserting the gondole into the TEC structure; (e) Tool and cables removal process and; (f) End of gondole-installation process. . . . . . . . . . . .. 4.8. 4.9. 91. 92. Maintenance operations of the gondole: (a) Positioning the special vessel on the gondole; (b) Descent process of the tool; (c) Coupling process between the tool and the gondole and cable tensioning process; (d) Activation of the hydraulic system of the tool to fix the gondole; (e) Gondole lifting process and; (f) Gondole recovered. . . . . . . . . . . .. 93. First generation TEC designed for automated maneuvers: (a) Shape of the nacelle and; (b) Distribution equipment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 95. 4.10 Automated installation maneuver of the gondole (immersion sequence): (a) Movement of the device with maneuver control in closed loop; (b) Connection between the cable wire and the gondole; (c) Immersion maneuver in closed loop; (d) Immersion maneuver in closed loop (cont.); (e) Immersion maneuver finished and; (f) Installation maneuver in closed loop finalized.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 97. 4.11 Automated maintenance maneuver of the gondole (emersion sequence): (a) The water begins to be emptied out of the gondole; (b) Separation between the TEC structure and the gondole and start of emersion process; (c) Emersion maneuver in closed loop; (d) Emersion maneuver in closed loop (cont.); (e) Emersion maneuver finalized, the inner ballasts are completely empty and are disconnected from the control system and; (f) Start of maintenance tasks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1. 98. Alderney Race: (a) Delimited zone for the tidal farm and; (b) Percentage of time during which current speeds are greater than 1 m/s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102.
(16) viii. LIST OF FIGURES. 5.2. (a) Proposed tidal energy farm view and; (b) Proposed tidal energy farm configuration. 103. 5.3. HF4 vessel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104. 5.4. (a) HF4 installation vessel transporting the equipment needed to install the TEC and; (b) HF4 installation vessel transporting gondoles. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104. 5.5. View of the Cherburg port. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105. 5.6. Energy generation of a TEC located in the different rows of the tidal energy farm. . . 106. 5.7. CAPEX distribution of the tidal farm with manual maneuvers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110. 5.8. OPEX distribution of the tidal farm with manual maneuvers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110. 5.9. Manufacturing costs of the nacelle (manual maneuvers). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111. 5.10 LCOE values for different values of the annual discount rate in the interval between k = 3% and k = 11% (manual maneuvers). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 5.11 CAPEX distribution of the tidal farm with automated maneuvers. . . . . . . . . . . . 113 5.12 OPEX distribution of the tidal farm with automated maneuvers. . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 5.13 Manufacturing costs of the nacelle (automated maneuvers). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 5.14 LCOE values for different values of the annual discount rate in the interval between k = 3% and k = 11% (automated maneuvers). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 5.15 Financial ratios for manual maneuvers: (a) Solvency ratio and; (b) Total debt ratio. . 117 5.16 Economic ratios for manual maneuvers: (a) Return of assets and; (b) Return of equity. 118 5.17 Sensitivity analysis results. NPV of the project with manual maneuvers. . . . . . . . . 120 5.18 Sensitivity analysis results. NPV for the stakeholders with manual maneuvers. . . . . 121 5.19 Financial ratios for automated maneuvers: (a) Solvency ratio and; (b) Total debt ratio. 122 5.20 Economic ratios for automated maneuvers: (a) Return of assets and; (b) Return of equity.123 5.21 Sensitivity analysis results. NPV of the project with automated maneuvers. . . . . . . 125 5.22 Sensitivity analysis results. NPV for the stakeholders with automated maneuvers.. . . 125. 5.23 Sensitivity analysis results. Comparison of the NPV of the project with manual and automated maneuvers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 5.24 Sensitivity analysis results. Comparison of the NPV for the stakeholders with manual and automated maneuvers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127.
(17) List of Tables. 2.1. National strategies for ocean energy in different EU Member States. . . . . . . . . . .. 18. 2.2. National strategies for ocean energy in different EU Member States (cont). . . . . . .. 19. 2.3. Comparison among the consenting process for ocean energy in different EU Member States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 20. Current market push and pull mechanisms for ocean energy from different EU Member States [5, 150–161]. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 24. 2.5. Summary of tidal energy projects that received Horizon 2020 and FP7 awards. . . . .. 30. 2.6. Representative selection of TEC device developers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 38. 2.7. Summary of tidal research priorities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 40. 3.1. Structure the forecast income statement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 76. 5.1. Values of the variables in the LCC of the case study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108. 5.2. Summary of the cost of the tidal energy farm composed of TECs with manual maneuvers.109. 5.3. Summary of the cost of the tidal energy farm composed by TECs with automated maneuvers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112. 2.4. A.1 Forecast balance obtained for the case study using manual maneuvers. All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 A.2 Forecast balance obtained for the case study using manual maneuvers (cont.). All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 A.3 Forecast balance obtained for the case study using manual maneuvers (cont.). All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 ix.
(18) x. LIST OF TABLES. A.4 Forecast income statement obtained for the case study using manual maneuvers. All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 A.5 Forecast income statement obtained for the case study using manual maneuvers (cont.). All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 A.6 Forecast income statement obtained for the case study using manual maneuvers (cont.). All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 A.7 Forecast sources and applications of funds obtained for the case study using manual maneuvers. All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144 A.8 Forecast sources and applications of funds obtained for the case study using manual maneuvers (cont.). All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 A.9 Forecast balance obtained for the case study using automated maneuvers. All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 A.10 Forecast balance obtained for the case study using automated maneuvers (cont.). All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 A.11 Forecast balance obtained for the case study using automated maneuvers (cont.). All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 A.12 Forecast income statement obtained for the case study using automated maneuvers. All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 A.13 Forecast income statement obtained for the case study using automated maneuvers (cont.). All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 A.14 Forecast income statement obtained for the case study using automated maneuvers (cont.). All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 A.15 Forecast sources and applications of funds obtained for the case study using automated maneuvers. All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 A.16 Forecast sources and applications of funds obtained for the case study using automated maneuvers (cont.). All quantities are expressed in e. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153.
(19) Notation. Acronyms ADEME. French Environment and Energy Management Agency. AEP. Annual Energy Production. CAPEX. Capital Expenditure. CO2. Carbon Dioxide. COTS. Commercial Off-The Shelf. DECC. Department of Energy and Climate Change. DETI. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment. DPBP. Discounted Payback Period. DP. Dynamic Positioning. EBIT. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes. EBT. Earnings Before Taxes. EIA. Environmental Impact Assessment. EOEA. European Ocean Energy Association. ETI. Energy Technologies Institute. EU. European Union xi.
(20) xii. Notation. EVE. Ente Vasco de la Energı́a. FAI. Fundo de Apoio à Inovaçao. GIT-ERM. Grupo de Investigación Tecnológico en Energı́as Renovables Marinas. GPS. Global Positioning System. ICT. Information and Communication Technologies. IDCORE. Industrial Doctorate Centre in Offshore Renewable Energy. IEA. International Energy Agency. IRENA. International Renewable Energy Agency. IRR. Internal Rate of Return. LCC. Life-Cycle Costs. LCOE. Levelized Cost of Energy. LoUISE. Laboratorio de Interacción con el Usuario e Ingenierı́a del Software. MEAD. Marine Energy Array Demonstrator. MRE. Marine Renewable Energy. MRPF. Marine Renewables Proving Fund. MSP. Marine Spatial Planning. MTBF. Mean Time Between Failures. NAREC. National Renewable Energy Centre. NI. Net Income. NPV. Net Present Value. NREAP. National Renewable Energy Action Plan. O&M. Operation and Maintenance. OIAE. Other Incomes and Expenses. OPEX. Operational Expenditure. OREDP. Offshore Renewable Energy Development Plan. ORESAP. Offshore Renewable Energy Strategic Action Plan.
(21) Notation. xiii. OSPAR. Oslo-Paris Commission. PESTEL. Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal. PMKE. Proportional Marketing Expenses. PMNE. Proportional Manufacturing Expenses. PTO. Power Take Off. RDI&D. Research, Development, Innovation and Demonstration. RD&D. Research, Development and Demonstration. REIF. Renewable Energy Investment Fund. RiCORE. Risk Based Consenting for Offshore Renewables. ROA. Return of Assets. ROC. Renewable Obligation Certificate. ROE. Return of Equity. ROS. Renewable Obligation Scheme. ROV. Remotely Operated Vehicle. R&D. Research and Development. SEAI. Sustainable Energy Authority for Ireland. SEA. Strategic Environmental Assessment. SOWFIA. Streamlining of Ocean Wave Farm Impacts Assessment. SR. Solvency Ratio. STE. Structure Expenses. TDR. Total-Debt Ratio. TEC. Tidal Energy Converter. TEF. Tidal Energy Farm. TRL. Technology Readiness Levels. UGEX. Modular Generation Extractable Units. UK. United Kingdom.
(22) xiv. Notation. UNCLOS. United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. UN. United Nations. USA. United States of America. WATERS. Wave and Tidal Energy Research Sites. WEC. Wave Energy Converter. Uppercase Letters A. Last Year with a Negative Discounted Cumulative Cash-Flow. Ar. Surface of the Rotor. As. Output Flow Surface. At. Total Frontal Surface of the Device. AM. Amortization. AS. Annual Sales. B. Absolute Value of the Discounted Cumulative Cash-Flow at the End of the Year A. C. Discounted Cash-Flow During the Year after A. C0. Initial Investment Costs. C1. Concept and Definition Costs. C11. Market Research Costs. C12. Project Management Costs. C13. Conception of the Tidal Farm and Design Analysis Costs. C14. Project Requirements’ Specification Costs. C2. Design and Development Costs. C21. Project Management Costs. C22. Engineering Design Costs. C23. Detailed Documentation of the Design Costs.
(23) Notation. xv. C24. Costs of Determination of the Manufacturing Steps of the Farm. C25. Costs of Selection of the Suppliers. C26. Quality Management Costs. C3. Manufacturing Costs. C31. Cost of the Nacelle. C311. Costs of the Structure of the Nacelle. C312. Cost of PTO Frame. C313. Cost of the Fairing. C314. Cost of the PTO. C315. Cost of Auxiliary Systems. C316. Cost of the Rotor. C32. Cost of the Supporting TEC Structure. C321. Cost of the Base Support. C322. Cost of the Transition Structure. C323. Cost of the Vertical Column. C324. Cost of the Concrete Ballasts. C325. Cost of the Special Concrete Bags. C33. Cost of the Export Power System. C331. Cost of the Electrical Equipment in the Nacelle. C332. Cost of the Electrical Equipment in the Base Support. C333. Cost of the Umbilical Cables. C334. Cost of the Transformation Platform and Converters. C335. Cost of the Exportation Cables. C4. Installation Costs. C41. Costs of the Installation of the Transformation Platform and Converters. C42. Costs of the Installation of the Submarine Cables.
(24) xvi. Notation. C43. Costs of the Installation of the Ground Exportation Cable. C44. Costs of the Installation of the TECs. C5. Operation and Maintenance Costs. C51. Costs of Blade Cleaning. C52. Costs of Light Preventive Maintenance. C53. Costs of High Preventive Maintenance. C54. Costs of Corrective Maintenance. C55. Insurance Costs and Fixed Expenses. C6. Decommissioning Costs. C61. Costs of Stopping the System. C62. Costs of Dismantling the Transformation Platform and Converters. C63. Costs of Dismantling the Submarine Cables. C64. Costs of Dismantling the Exportation Cable. C65. Costs of Dismantling the TECs. C66. Incomes Obtained from the Sales of the Main Components. CACS. Cost per kg of the Compressed Air System. CAE. Cost per kg of the Added Elements. CAI. Cost per m2 of the Surface of the Farm. CB. Cost per m of Each Blade of the TEC. CBG. Cost per kg of the Special Concrete Bags. CBIS. Cost per kg of the Bilge System. CBS. Cost per MW of the Brake System. CBSC. Cost per kg of the Submarine Connector Installed in the Base of the TEC. CCAP EX. Capital Expenditures. CCB. Cost per kg of the Circuit Board. CCBX. Cost per kg of the Connection Box.
(25) Notation. xvii. CCDA. Conception of the Tidal Farm and Design Analysis Costs. CCM S. Cost per MW of the Condition Monitoring System. CCOS. Cost per MW of the Cooling System. CCR. Cost per m of the Core of the Rotor. CCS. Costs of Certificates and Surveys. CCT S. Cost per kg of the Control System. CDD. Design and Development Costs. CEB. Cost per MW of the Electrical Boxes. CEC. Cost per kg of the Elaborated Concrete of the Ballast. CEG. Cost per MW of the Electrical Generator. CF. Cost per kg of the Manufactured Fiberglass for the Fairing. CG. Cost per MW of the Gearbox. CSEC. Cost per m of the Ground Exportation Cable. CHSS. Cost per MW of the High-Speed Shaft. CI. Cost per MW of the Inverters. CIW. Cost per kg of the Internal Wiring. CLBC. Labor Costs (Blade Cleaning). CLCM. Labor Costs (Corrective Maintenance). CLHP M. Labor Costs (High Preventive Maintenance). CLLP M. Labor Costs (Light Preventive Maintenance). CLSS. Cost per m of Low-Speed Shaft. CM CM. Material Costs (Corrective Maintenance). CM HP M. Material Costs (High Preventive Maintenance). CM LP M. Material Costs (Light Preventive Maintenance). CM R. Market Research Costs. COP EXt. Operational Expenditures in Year t.
(26) xviii. Notation. CP. Coefficient of Utilization. P (i, j). Power of the TEC Located in Row i and Column j. CP LBC. Cost Incurred as Result of Production Losses (Blade Cleaning). CP LCM. Cost Incurred as Result of Production Losses (Corrective Maintenance). CP LHP M. Cost Incurred as Result of Production Losses (High Preventive Maintenance). CP LLP M. Cost Incurred as Result of Production Losses (Light Preventive Maintenance). CP OIGEC. Cost of Operations in the Port (Installation of the Ground Exportation Cable). CP OIP C. Cost of Operations in the Port (Installation of the Transformation Platform). CP OISC. Cost of Operations in the Port (Installation of the Submarine Cables). CP OIT EC. Cost of Operations in the Port (Installation of the TECs). CP OS. Cost per MW of the Pressure Oil System. CP RS. Project Requirements’ Specification Costs. CP S. Cost per m of the Pitch System. CP SW. Cost per MW of the Protection Switch. CP T OF. Cost per kg of the Carbon Steel Produced for the PTO Frame. CR. Cost per MW of the Rectifiers. CSC. Cost per kg of the Submarine Connector. CSD. Cost per kg of the Carbon Steel Manufactured for the Structure of the Nacelle. CSEC. Cost per m of the Submarine Exportation Cables. CSW T. Cost per kg of the Protection and Connection Switches. Ct. Cash-Flow During the Period t. CT B. Cost per MW of the Thrust Bearing. CT BC. Transport Costs (Blade Cleaning). CT BS. Cost per kg of the Base Support Structure. CT CM. Transport Costs (Corrective Maintenance). CT F. Cost per MW of the Transformers.
(27) Notation. xix. CT HP M. Transport Costs (High Preventive Maintenance). CT LIGEC. Cost of Technical Labor (Installation of the Ground Exportation Cable). CT LIP C. Cost of Technical Labor (Installation of the Transformation Platform). CT LISC. Cost of Technical Labor (Installation of the Submarine Cables). CT LIT EC. Cost of Technical Labor (Installation of the TECs). CT LP M. Transport Costs (Light Preventive Maintenance). CT P. Cost per kg of the Transformation Platform. CT T S. Cost per kg of the Transition Structure. CT V C. Cost per kg of the Vertical Column. CU C. Cost per m of the Umbilical Cables. CVIGEC. Cost of Leasing the Vessels (Installation of the Ground Exportation Cable). CVIP C. Cost of Leasing the Vessels (Installation of the Transformation Platform). CVISC. Cost of Leasing the Vessels (Installation of the Submarine Cables). CVIT EC. Cost of Leasing the Vessels (Installation of the TECs). CY S. Cost per kg of the Yaw System. CFp. Cash-Flows of the Project. D. Diameter of the Rotor. DBC. Downtimes Spent on Blade Cleaning. DCM. Downtimes Spent on Corrective Maintenance. DHP M. Downtimes Spent on High Preventive Maintenance. DLP M. Downtimes Spent on Light Preventive Maintenance. Et. Production of Energy in Year t. FE. Financing Expenses. LSEC. Length of the Ground Exportation Cable. LSEC. Length of the Submarine Exportation Cables. NB. Number of Blades per TEC.
(28) xx. Notation. NBG. Number of Special Concrete Bags per TEC. NCB. Number of Concrete Ballasts per TEC. Ncolumn. Number of Columns on the TEF. NI. Number of TECs Installed. NM. Number of TECs Manufactured. Nrow. Number of Rows on the TEF. NSEC. Number of Submarine Exportation Cables. NT F. Number of Transformers. PT. Power of the TECs. RR. Radius of the Rotor. ST EP. Surface of the Tidal Energy Farm. T. Taxes. Vh. Velocity on the Sea Surface. Vr. Rotor Velocity. Vs. Output Flow Velocity. Vz. Final Velocity of the Blended Flow. WW. Weather Windows. Zr. Depth of the Water Column. Zr. Rotor Depth. Lowercase Letters a. Stele Coefficient. ct. Buoyancy Coefficient. dP −T F. Distance from the Tidal Farm to the Base Port. k. Annual Discount Rate.
(29) Notation. xxi. mU C. Length of the Umbilical Cables. mACS. Mass of the Compressed Air System. mAE. Mass of the Added Elements. mBG. Mass of the Special Concrete Bags. mBIS. Mass of the Bilge System. mBSC. Mass of the Submarine Connector Installed in the Base of the TEC. mCB. Mass of the Circuit Board. mCBX. Mass of the Connection Box. mCT S. Mass of the Control System. mT T S. Mass of the Concrete of the Ballast. mF. Mass of the Fairing. mIW. Mass of the Internal Wiring. mP T OF. Mass of the PTO Frame. mSC. Mass of the Submarine Connector. mSD. Mass of the Structure of the Nacelle. mSW T. Mass of the Protection and Connection Switches. mT BS. Mass of the Base Support Structure. mT P. Mass of the Transformation Platform. mT T S. Mass of the Transition Structure. mT V C. Mass of the Vertical Column. mY S. Mass of the Yaw System. n. Number of Years. pET. Electric Tariff.
(30) xxii. Notation. Greek Symbols ηAF. Availability Factor. ηP ES. Performance of the Power Export System. ηP T O. Performance of the Power Drive Train. ρ. Fluid Density.
(31) Chapter. 1. Introduction 1.1. Framework of the Thesis his Ph.D. Thesis falls within the framework of the research project entitled “Control of Maneuvers for Marine Devices with which to Harness Hydrokinetic Energy” (Ref. DPI201453499-R), led by Prof. José Andrés Somolinos and in which Prof. Rafael Morales Herrera. T. participated as a researcher. The objective of this project is to increase the scientific and technical knowledge regarding devices with which to harness energy from marine streams and waves (denoted the scientific literature as tidal energy converters, TECs, and wave energy converters, WECs, respectively), in a common and critical field for their techno-economical viability, as it is the automation of these tasks that will lead to important cost reductions for their future commercial exploitation. The national interest in the development of these technologies is owing to both the possibility of using the resources existing at our borders and the significant volume of industrial business that will be generated in the coming decades for the implementation of farms with these devices. The author also wishes to acknowledge the financial support provided by the LoUISE group at the University of Castilla-La Mancha in the form of the following scholarships granted to the Ph.D. candidate:. • “Collaboration Grant in Research Tasks”. Ref. 2015-BCL-5683. Date: 05/10/2015 – 31/12/2015. • “Collaboration Grant in Research Tasks”. Ref. 2016-BCL-6016. Date: 05/07/2016 – 23/12/2016. • “Collaboration Grant in Research Tasks”. Ref. 2017-BCL-6507. Date: 01/07/2017 – 31/12/2017. 1.
(32) 2. Introduction. 1.2. Brief state of the art. The fact that fossil fuels have a limited life span signifies that new energy technologies are needed in order to ensure a sustainable energy supply [1, 2]. What is more, there has been an international movement to promote clearly renewable technologies for electricity generation in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which are responsible for climate change. In 2009, the European Union (EU) established the need to reduce 20% of energy consumption, to reduce 20% of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions with the objective that 20% of final energy consumption of the EU will originate from renewable sources in 2020 [3]. This policy has principally been focused on wind and solar energy [4]. In order to attain and increase these percentages in the near future, to supply a substantial amount of electricity to the grid, and to make a significant contribution to the future energy mix, other forms of renewable energy that are less developed at present but which have a high potential, such as ocean energy, have become of a growing interest [5, 6]. The sea is a huge collector, accumulator and transformer of energy, covering more than 70% of the Earth’s surface. The energy that could be extracted from the oceans is estimated to be more than 8,000 TWh/year [7]. Ocean energy (wave, tidal, salinity gradient and thermal gradient) is in an initial stage of development, and there is a need for substantial further research, progress and demonstration efforts to allow learning and cost reduction before it can make major contributions to the energy supply [8]. In the short term, the industry has established the target of 2020 for an installed capacity of ocean energy (wave and tidal) of 3GW in the United Kingdom (UK) and 3.6GW in the EU [9–11]. However, in the medium to long term, the development of ocean energy is expected to undergo a highly substantial increase to become a major source of electricity supply by 2050 [12–14] and is expected to target an installed capacity of 188GW for ocean energy in 2050 [10] and around 15-20% of UK electricity demand [15]. Several ocean energy test centers have recently been developed in Europe, the United States of America (USA) and Canada [16] and various test centers are under construction in Asia [17, 18]. The opportunities and benefits that could be achieved with the exploitation of ocean energy technologies include [6, 19]: • The development of the ocean energy sector, which could lead to an important economic growth in coastal regions. • The creation of new qualified jobs thanks to the development of new energy projects, the design and manufacturing of ocean energy technologies and the normal operation and maintenance of these installations. It is estimated that approximately 680,000 direct jobs could have been created by 2050 [20], thus providing employment for more people than are currently employed by the entire European naval construction sector [21]. • The exploitation of these resources would reduce the EU’s dependence on fossil fuels for electricity generation and would increase energy security..
(33) 1.2. Brief state of the art. 3. • The position of the EU’s industry within the global ocean energy market is very solid. Indeed, the main technical developments that take place as regards ocean energy are carried out in the EU, and it is estimated that the global tidal and wave energy market could reach 535,000 Me between 2010 and 2050 [22]. Furthermore, EU investment in research and development (R&D) in ocean energy projects will lead to high exportation opportunities as regards technology and knowledge. • The profitable development of clean renewable energy technologies for electricity generation with low carbon emissions will be very important with regard to fulfilling the commitment to reduce the level of greenhouse emissions by between 80% and 95% from the present date until the year 2050. • The electricity produced by ocean energy could serve as a complement to other renewable sources within the global energy mix (improved predictability, decreased variability, spatial concentration and socio-economic benefits). • Renewable ocean energy devices tend to be totally/partially submerged and, consequently, have a low visual impact. The European ocean energy industry requires interaction between several agents (industry and maritime services, research institutes and universities and governments) if it is to attain a mature and cost-efficient level of development while simultaneously maintaining Europe’s leadership in technology in order to seize export opportunities (energy independence and energy diversification, job creation, decarbonisation, technology transfer, etc.) in the global market [23]. The role of each of the stakeholders involved in the successful development of ocean energy projects is summarized in Figure 1.1 and is briefly described below [24]: • Industry and maritime and oceanic services. It is necessary for industries to invest funding and cooperate with maritime and oceanic services in order to develop innovative/optimized costeffective solutions as regards the following: maintenance tasks, foundations and moorings, grid design or data collection and analysis, among others. • Research institutes and universities. Their collaboration is required in order to achieve new techno-economic design concepts, increase the performance and reliability of the components and tools and array interaction analysis. • Governments. Governments are principally required to provide a part of the funding support in activities such as device (including components and subcomponents) and array-level reliability demonstration or knowledge transfer and dissemination. Of the various types of ocean energy, this paper is focused on devices that harness the energy of.
(34) 4. Introduction. Figure 1.1: Sustainable development of marine renewable energy in Europe [25]. ocean currents1 , which, although they are still in their infancy and only some marine current energy conversion systems are being implemented at the prototype and pre-commercial demonstration stage at sea [26], will have considerable possibilities in the future thanks to its enormous potential for electricity production and its high predictability [7, 15, 27–29]. In order to achieve a near future viability of tidal energy and a sustained commercially competitive cost of energy, important efforts must be made to reduce the associated cost and improve the reliability and performance of systems [15]. We have to note that, as tidal energy harnessing is in an early stage, there are numerous areas of uncertainty which need to be explored if the future of the industry is to be insured. In order to bridge these gaps in data, this thesis performs different research economic studies in an attempt to mitigate some of the risks identified that may affect the development of these technologies as regards becoming marketable. The rest of the chapter is organized as follows: Section 1.3 is focused on the description of the basic concepts of tidal energy and the assessment of resources. Section 1.4 shows a description of the main 1 Other tidal technologies are tidal range power plants that use the difference in the sea level between high and low tides to create power [30]. They use the same principles as conventional hydropower, and require a barrier to impound a large body of water, which then drives turbines and generates electricity. This method has been effectively utilized in France (La Rance), South Korea (Lake Sihwa), Russia (Kislaya Guba) and China (Jiangxia), among others [31]..
(35) 1.3. Tidal energy concepts. 5. challenges that must be met in order to achieve robust, feasible and cost-effective tidal technologies while simultaneously helping the acceleration and sustainability of these energy systems. Section 1.5 explain the motivation, the general objectives and the contributions of the proposed thesis. Finally, Section 1.6 outlines the structure of the document.. 1.3 1.3.1. Tidal energy concepts Basic concepts. Tidal energy is a form of renewable energy which is generated from the gravitational and centrifugal forces among the earth, moon and sun [32, 33]. The oceans undergo the effects of the gravitational force of the sun and the moon on the earth, which attracts the oceans towards it, and the centrifugal force produced by the motion of the earth around the center of mass of the earth-moon system [34]. The result of the combination of these effects is the regular rise and fall of the surface of the oceans, which are denoted as tides. The effects of gravitational and centrifugal forces, independently and combined, are illustrated in Figure 1.2. The rotation movement of the earth relative to both the sun and the moon produces two tidal phenomenons every 24 h, 50 min, and 28 s [35]. Taking into consideration that the moon orbits the earth every 29.5 days, which is known as the lunar cycle [36], the size of the high water depends on the position of the moon in relation to the sun [37]. When a linear alignment of the sun, earth and moon is produced, a constructive force appears and a spring tide is caused. However, when the sun and the moon are at 90o to each other, the forces are destructive and a smaller neap tide is produced. A neap tide arrives a week after a spring tide. A brief classification of oceanic resources from water flows is sometimes a little confusing, the most important of these being oceanic currents, tidal streams and river streams. Ocean currents are considered to be those that provide a mean value of velocities different to zero over a time period of at least one year, while the tidal streams are of zero mean velocities with time periods of approximately half a day and a day. The term “tidal” is used in literature in the most general sense and generally includes both types of streams. The term “river stream” has a clear meaning. Tidal currents occur between land masses or adjacent to headlands [38]. These narrow channels cause the marine current to flow in the direction of the coast, which is denoted as a flood current and the marine current to recede from the coast, which is called an ebb current [39]. The velocity of the marine current flow can be used to generate electricity and is one of the most important parameters in the assessment of this energy resource.. 1.3.2. Resource assessment. The extraction of energy from the ocean currents (see Figure 1.3) has the following advantages:.
(36) 6. Introduction. Figure 1.2: The effect of the moon on the tidal range [40]. • Tidal and ocean currents are continuous, accurate and achievable over long time horizons and high load factors are consequently achieved. • The forecasting and reliability of ocean and tidal power is consequently very high, and it is therefore an excellent future choice as a base-load supplier for a stable grid [41]. • The environmental impact incurred from the exploitation of the ocean resource is smaller than that of other forms of renewable energy. The current harnessing technologies produce minor visual contamination, pollution and noise. Moreover, the angular velocity of the rotors is small and, therefore, the blades barely affect habitats and marine life. This signifies that it is one of the best future methods for large-scale electricity generation [42]. • In general, tidal energy technologies, since they are submerged, are independent of factors such as rain, fog or clouds that substantially affect other forms of renewable energy such as solar or wind energy. Furthermore, according to [43, 44], the marine current energy resource can be divided into five categories : • A theoretical resource, which is the content of tidal energy within a given area. The estimation of tidal energy can be obtained by means of direct measurements of tidal elevations, current velocities, coarse bathymetry, hydrographic surveys or official databases provided by test centres, among others [45–48]..
(37) 1.3. Tidal energy concepts. 7. Figure 1.3: Ocean current map [42]. • A technical resource, which expresses the theoretical resource restricted by the efficiency of the current technology available for the support structure and electrical issues such as grid connection, the interactions between devices in arrays or farms and the effect of turbulence or velocity profiles on the performance of devices [49–52]. Bearing in mind that tidal energy technology is at an early stage, tidal technology will operate economically in waters with peak tidal velocities greater than 1.5 m/s [53, 54]. Moreover, places with peak tidal velocities greater than 2.5 m/s are considered to have a high potential energy resource [55]. The most important tidal energy sites in the world are located in [56]: The Amazon, the Arctic Ocean, the Bay of Fundy, Bosporus, the English Channel, Gibraltar, the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of St Lawrence, the Hebrides, the Irish Sea, Messina, Rio de la Plata, Sicily, Skagerrak-Kattegat and the Straits of Magellan, among others. • A practical resource, which is obtained from the technical resource described above, and includes the following restrictions: water depth, minimum peak tidal velocity, military zones, touristic areas, shipping lanes, busy sailing areas or restricted areas containing pipelines and cables [57– 62]. • An accessible resource, which is determined by the practical resource constrained by current legislation and regulations governing tidal energy devices that limit energy extraction. Some examples of constraints are environmental concerns, planing zonation, ecology or energy policies, among others [63–69]. • A viable resource, which is achieved from the accessible resource and includes the commercial constraints such as resource distribution, market reward level, development cost, scale, timing or other risks [70–74]..
(38) 8. Introduction. 1.4. Challenges of tidal energy. Despite the opportunities that tidal energy could provide, there are still some challenges that require development in order to promote awareness of ocean technologies and increase their current potential. The identification of these challenges is essential if governments, industry, maritime and oceanic services, research institutions and universities are to obtain a unified and coordinated approach with which to achieve robust, feasible and cost-effective ocean energy devices. Obtaining these will help the acceleration and sustainability of tidal energy systems. The principal high level challenges to be confronted are shown in Figure 1.4 and are described below:. Figure 1.4: High level challenges [75].. • Increasing affordability by means of incentive, innovation and cost reduction in order to become competitive with other renewable production energy sources. • Although the predictability of tidal flows is well known, substantial efforts must be made in order to increase knowledge regarding the effects of turbulence and their contribution to component fatigue life. The predictability of energy output will consequently be improved. • Increasing reliability and, consequently, reducing the unplanned maintenance requirements by carrying out more in-depth studies on parameters such as individual components of mean time between failure (MTBF) and life expectancy. • Improving the manufacturability of tidal energy converters by moving from a first-scale prototype to commercial production. This will influence the design of optimized components and subcomponents in addition to improving the manufacturing process. Moreover, research into new materials as substitutes for steel implies high cost reductions along with a reduction in the dimensions of the components developed..
(39) 1.5. Motivation, objectives and contributions of the Thesis. 9. • The definition of new supervision techniques and operation and testing procedures will help the remote operability and survivability of tidal energy technologies that operate under extreme conditions. • Providing affordable automation techniques, with less human intervention and that will allow cheaper general purpose ships rather than high cost special vessels, in order to optimize installation and maintenance costs.. 1.5. Motivation, objectives and contributions of the Thesis. Tidal energy is a promising technological field with a great potential as regards producing substantial amounts of clean electricity in the medium and longer term. Its advantage over other renewable energy sources is that it is predictable. Although the tidal energy industry has only just begun to demonstrate full-scale devices and device arrays, the nascent status of these technologies implies that they have not obtained a sufficient level of reliability, feasibility and survivability to be marketable with regard to other renewable technologies. The achievement of a future successful commercialization of renewable tidal energy harnessing devices makes the quantification of the costs of these technologies necessary in order to study their economic viability, while cooperation among industry, research institutes, universities and governments is also required. These stakeholders principally have to confront obstacles related to technical development (knowledge of resource mapping, device design, array deployment), economic aspects (high levelized cost of energy (LCOE), difficult prediction as regards long-term cost reductions, high technology risks), socio-environmental concerns (complex administrative issues, effects of ocean technologies on the environment, social acceptance) and infrastructure (grid access, supply chain, maintenance tasks). The aforementioned problems and requirements are the reasons why we were motivated to develop this research work. The objective of this thesis is to develop different economic research studies in an attempt to mitigate some of the risks identified that may affect the development of these technologies as regards becoming marketable. In this context, this thesis has the following general objectives: 1. The development of a strategic analysis for this industry/market which will consist of providing a comprehensive list of the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal influences on the possible success or failure of particular strategies in this field and, also, the identification of the principal stakeholders involved in each of these disciplines. 2. The development of an economic-financial model for the evaluation of marine current harnessing projects (that can easily be extended to other types offshore renewable energy projects with minor adaptations) in order to achieve a coherent quantification of the costs of these technologies, discover their economic viability and simultaneously attract investment in them..
(40) 10. Introduction. 3. The definition of the procedures employed for the manual and automated installation and maintenance maneuvers for first generation tidal energy converters in order to be able to identify how these maneuvers could affect the cost structure of this sort of projects. 4. The development of a numerical case study based on a tidal energy farm located in one of the Channel Island Races, the Alderney Race, in the United Kingdom. The results obtained by taking into consideration the proposed economic-financial model and the installation and maintenance maneuvers will make it possible to discover its economic viability.. 1.6. Thesis organization. This thesis consists of six chapters and one appendix that address the study of tidal current energy conversion systems from the economic point of view. The contents of each chapter are resumed as follows: • Chapter 1 provides a brief state of the art, research objectives, motivation and structure of the document. The content of this chapter is based on an earlier publication [24] and has been customized for this thesis. • Chapter 2 presents a strategic analysis (PESTEL) of the ocean energy industry as a whole, and then goes on to focus more particularly on tidal current energy. The PESTEL framework stands for political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal analysis for this industry/market and also identifies the principal stakeholders involved in each of these disciplines. Political factors usually include how and to what degree governments intervene in the economy, economic factors have a meaningful impact on how organizations do business and also how profitable they are, social factors are the areas that involve the population’s shared belief and attitudes, technological factors usually include innovations in technology and how favorably or unfavorable affect the operations in the industry and the market, legal factors embrace legislative constraints or changes and, environmental factors represent green issues. The content of this chapter is based on earlier publications by the author [76,78–80] that have been customized for this thesis. • Chapter 3 describes an economic-financial methodology that will help quantify the profitability and feasibility of tidal current energy projects. The methodology developed considers the following aspects: (i) a definition of the fundamental variables of the economic model; (ii) a definition of its financing structure on the basis of the industry’s common stockholder equity that partners must provide and the estimation of bank financing needs; (iii) a definition of the main components required to obtain the forecast balance, the forecast income statement and the forecast sources and application of funds for the entire service life of the project; (iv) a determination of the cost-benefit analysis, carried out using the information provided in the.
(41) 1.6. Thesis organization. 11. cash-flows of the project and the forecast sources and application of funds; (v) an analysis of the most important economic-financial ratios of the model and; (vi) the realization of a sensitivity analysis, with the aim of detecting business risks when fundamental variables of the model, such as investment, the annual energy production, the price of energy or the percentage of loan requested, among others, oscillate. The content of this chapter is based on earlier publications by the author [81–84] that have been customized for this thesis. • Chapter 4 provides general details on installation and maintenance maneuvers for first generation TECs. This chapter also describes the installation and maintenance procedures employed for first generation TECs in both a manual and an automated manner with the aim of increasing the competitiveness of this source of renewable energy in the near future. The content of this chapter is based on earlier publications by the author [85–88]. • Chapter 5 addresses a numerical case study of a tidal energy farm composed of first generation tidal energy converters located in one of the Channel Island Races, the Alderney Race, in the UK. The results have been attained by means of the computation of different indicators, such as the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the discounted payback period (DPBP) or the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), among others, in order to discover the economic viability of the proposed tidal energy project. The content of this chapter is based on earlier publications by the author [89–91]. • Chapter 6 provides a summary of the thesis, along with relevant conclusions and contributions related to the procedures proposed in this thesis. Future research work is also suggested. • Appendix A provides the results of the forecast balance, the forecast income statement and the forecast sources and application of funds of the case study using manual and automated maneuvers..
(42) 12. Introduction.
(43) Chapter. 2. Strategic Analysis for Tidal Current Energy Conversion Systems in the European Union 2.1. Introduction nergy is a vital element in human life, and if modern societies are to be sustained then obtaining a secure, sufficient and accessible energy supply is fundamental. The demand for. E. the provision of energy is rapidly increasing throughout the world and this trend is likely to continue in the future [1, 2]. The growing recognition that global warming exists has. led more governments, research centers and corporations to commit resources to the advancement of renewable energy technologies. The various nations within and bordering the region of the OsloParis Commission (OSPAR) are all committed to significant reductions in CO2 emissions in the short term. The EU has set a target to reduce 20% of energy consumption and 20% of CO2 emissions with the objective of 20% of the EU’s final energy consumption will originate from renewable sources in 2020 [3]. Renewable energy generation could, in addition to provide a means to substantially reduce CO2 emissions, help reduce national dependencies on imported energy, thus increasing energy security and diminishing domestic supplies of fossil fuels [92–96]. One challenge as regards energy is to be able to move to a new low carbon economy in which energy demands can be met while the levels of CO2 emitted are reduced. In order to meet this challenge, other forms of renewable energy that are currently less developed but which have a high potential, such as ocean energy (which has been indicated as being as one of the five key sectors for sustainable blue growth in the Blue Growth strategy of the EU1 [97]) has become of incipient interest in the successful development of these technologies and in bringing them onto the market [5, 6]. For example, since 2003 the European Commission has 1 The. other four are: biotechnology, coastal and marine tourism, seabed mining and aquaculture.. 13.
(44) 14. Strategic Analysis for Tidal Current Energy Conversion Systems in the European Union. assigned more than 140 Me to ocean technology developments and more than 700 Me to investment in industry, which has been translated into significant progress in this field in the last 8–10 years [98]. Global resources for ocean energy have been estimated to have a net potential greater than that of wind and solar energy (about 32,000 GW) and it has the potential to provide up to 7% of the global electricity demand [99–102]. Given its potential, the industry has established the target of 2020 for an installed capacity of ocean energy of 3.6 GW in the EU [9–11]. However, in the medium to long term, there are indications that ocean energy could make a much more significant contribution and become a major electricity source supply by 2050 [12–14]. The predicted installed capacity of 188 GW by 2050 shows the scale of development [23]. Of the various types of ocean energy (wave, tidal, offshore wind, salinity gradient and thermal gradient), this chapter is focused on tidal current energy which, although in its initial stage of development, will have considerable possibilities in the future thanks to its enormous potential for electricity production and its high predictability in comparison to offshore wind and wave energy [7, 27, 40, 103, 104]. The EU is characterized by an abundance of ocean energy sources in its coastal waters that could provide opportunities and benefits, some of which are energy independence, job creation, decarbonization or being a complement to other renewable sources within the global energy mix. However, as tidal energy harnessing is still in its infancy, and only some marine current energy conversion systems are being implemented at the prototype and pre-commercial demonstration stage at sea, there are numerous areas of uncertainty which need to be explored if the future of the industry is to be insured. In order to bridge these gaps in data, and based on the most up-to-date literature, reports and guidelines, in this research we have performed a strategic analysis (PESTEL) of the ocean energy industry as a whole, and with a more particular focus on tidal current energy. The PESTEL analysis provides a comprehensive list of influences on the possible success or failure of particular strategies and is a framework that is already accepted by industry as a method with which to determine the state of a particular industry or market [105–108]. The PESTEL framework (see Figure 2.1) stands for political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal analysis for this industry/market and also identifies the principal stakeholders involved in each of these disciplines. Political factors usually include how and to what degree governments intervene in the economy, economic factors have a meaningful impact on how organizations do business and also how profitable they are, social factors are the areas that involve the population’s shared belief and attitudes, legal factors embrace legislative constraints or changes and, environmental factors represent green issues. The identification of the key drivers for change will help managers to focus on the most important PESTEL factors that are of the highest priority. Without a clear sense of the key drivers for change, managers will not be able to make the decisions that will enable effective action to be taken. Research has also suggested different strategies/recommendations with which to mitigate many of the risks identified that, when working in this way, could even turn project risks into benefits. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows: Sections 2.2 to 2.6 deal with the different disciplines of which the PESTEL analysis is composed through the process of making tidal current energy.
(45) 2.2. Political and legal analysis. 15. technologies marketable, and finally, Section 2.7 is dedicated to the conclusions of the work.. Figure 2.1: PESTEL framework.. 2.2. Political and legal analysis. The political and legal analysis is devoted to the assessment of government regulations and legal factors in terms of their ability to affect the business environment and trade markets. Tidal energy projects (or ocean energy projects in general) are viewed by governments as a renewable energy source with a high potential that could decisively supply a substantial amount of electricity to the grid in the near future and make a significant contribution to the future energy mix [6, 7]. However, despite the importance of the political and legal framework, and keeping in mind the rapid evolution of this sector, there is a scarcity of literature that is directly related to ocean energy, and this could lead to important obstacles in the future development of these technologies [109, 110]. In fact, the political and legal frameworks may be the most significant non-technical barrier for this renewable energy sector [8, 111]. Some of the reasons for this are the following [112, 113]: • The technologies used in ocean energy (wave, tidal, offshore wind, salinity gradient and thermal gradient) have completely different characteristics and have reached different degrees of maturity. • There is sometimes an absence of dedicated legal frameworks with which to support ocean energy.
(46) 16. Strategic Analysis for Tidal Current Energy Conversion Systems in the European Union. (in the case of wave and tidal energy, procedures designed for other energy sectors such as oil and gas or offshore wind tend to be used instead, thus leading to inappropriate legal procedures and delays in consent). • In addition to the aforementioned lack of clarity in the consenting processes, we must also include the fragmentation of the consenting authority throughout multiple consenting agencies, which can cause important delays. This evidences the limited experience related to ocean energy, with one coordinating authority or a one-stop shop approach. This has led to environmental impact assessment (EIA) specifications being designed according to what a consenting authority wants a developer to assess, and not why these issues need assessing. The analysis of the political and legal frameworks could help identify both the best approaches and the conflicting regulations [114]. This will be dealt with in the following subsections.. 2.2.1. International framework. The United Nations (UN) are focusing on the promotion of renewable energy sources with a low environmental impact in order to secure a cleaner, and more just and prosperous world for all [115]. In this line of action, States are bound by the international commitments to which they have subscribed. The principal legal framework for the use of oceans is defined in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) [64, 116]. The Convention states that territorial waters or territorial sea consists of the coastal waters up to 12 nautical miles from a baseline which is usually the mean low-water mark. Territorial waters are the state’s sovereign territory and give it full rights over the water, seabed and subsoil. The coastal country has the right to establish laws and regulate the use of the ocean in its territorial waters. Beyond the territorial waters is an exclusive economic zone which stretches up to 200 nautical miles from the territorial sea baseline, and a country has the rights to explore, exploit, conserve and manage the natural resources of the water column and seabed. Most ocean energy devices have and will be installed in territorial waters [116, 117], but in several EU countries there is no specific legal framework for these new technologies [118]. Other autonomous organizations that support countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future and exert influence on the political and legal decisions of the EU members are the International Energy Agency (IEA) [119], the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) [120] and the European Ocean Energy Association (EOEA) [121]. Furthermore, in 2009 the EU established the need to reduce 20% of energy consumption and 20% of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions with the objective that 20% of the EU’s final energy consumption will originate from renewable sources in 2020 [3]. This directive signifies that the EU policy and legal framework should be improved in the near future owing to the fact that ocean energy is expected to make a significant contribution to the future energy mix [5]. Finally, it is important to note here that several projects, such as the RiCORE [122] and SOWFIA [123] projects, both of which are funded by the EU, carry out interesting research into the consenting procedures for ocean.
(47) 2.2. Political and legal analysis. 17. energy in the different EU Member States with the aim of illustrating possible improvements and good practices in the political and legal framework when applied to ocean energy systems.. 2.2.2. EU framework. The administrative and legal procedures of each of the different EU Member States illustrate the desire to access the new energetic uses of the oceans and to submit action models related to their political choices and their administrative traditions. However, the national policies, energy strategies, legal framework and administrative entities operating within individual EU Member States are completely different. This results, to some extent, inevitable for development consent but should be less common for the EIA, which has a common legal framework throughout the EU. Tables 2.1 and 2.2 provide a summary of the different strategies and policies related to ocean energy in several EU Member States, and Table 2.3 shows a comparison between the characteristics of the EU Member States considered. A complete and detailed review of these consenting processes can be found in [110, 123–125].. 2.2.3. Recommendations. The analysis shown above makes it possible to outline several recommendations that could help the consenting processes and/or improve their operation [117, 124]: • Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) is considered one solution by which to overcome problems with overlapping jurisdiction within a given maritime space [126, 127]. It is fundamental to develop messages concerning what MSP can do for this sector as regards a range of themes such as pre-allocated zones, coexistence with other marine activities, spatial requirements or technology-specific needs, among others. On the one hand, the consenting authorities should explain the benefits of MSP for ocean energy in detail. On the other, as marine spatial plans are currently under study, developers and industrial associations are responsible for conveying to regulators what the ocean energy sector requires from MSP. It is, therefore, expected that the reduction in over-regulation and administrative complexity will increase investment in these technologies and the generation of economic gains [128,129]. The efficiency of MSP in the ocean energy sector has recently been studied in several case studies [130, 131]. • The authorities involved in the consenting process should provide clear information on their respective roles and responsibilities and how they can be contacted. This aspect will help ensure a greater coordination and communication among the authorities involved in ocean energy consenting, identify the most optimal framework in which to streamline their consenting processes and facilitate the assistance given to prospective developers when choosing a potential site for the development of an ocean energy project [99, 132]. • Using Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) in parallel with strategy development will help.
Documento similar
• Frequency response and inertia analysis in power systems with high wind energy integration en International Conference on Clean Electrical Power Renewable Energy Resources Impact
International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems Engineering. International Journal of Electrical, Computer, and
As seen previously on subsection 3.3.1 the storms were characterized and classified based on the storm energy content, which was acquired using a combination of wave height
The authors provide many examples of how these resources are related to each other: agriculture as the productive sector with the highest consumption of water and energy as
The main pillars covered by the Energy Union’s framework refers to, the mentioned solidarity and trust, integration of energy market, energy efficiency, innovation, research
In this paper, the effects of economic growth and four different types of energy consumption (oil, natural gas, hydroelectric- ity, and renewable energy) on environmental quality
As we have seen, even though the addition of a cosmological constant to Einstein’s eld equations may be the simplest way to obtain acceleration, it has its caveats. For this rea-
The magnetization has opposite sign on the left and right parts of the TI wire, and therefore the wave function corresponding to the lowest positive (highest negative) energy state