• No se han encontrado resultados

Guerra y terrorismo: el modelo de economía depredadora de la guerra

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "Guerra y terrorismo: el modelo de economía depredadora de la guerra"

Copied!
28
0
0

Texto completo

(1)

0,.(/%8(6$

(2)

*

8(55$<

7

(5525,602

(

/02'(/2'((&2120Ë$

'(35('$'25$'(*8(55$

0,.(/%8(6$ &DWHGUiWLFRGH(FRQRPtD$SOLFDGD ,QVWLWXWRGH$QiOLVLV,QGXVWULDO\)LQDQFLHUR\'HSDUWDPHQWRGH(FRQRPtD$SOLFDGD,, 8QLYHUVLGDG&RPSOXWHQVHGH0DGULG 5(680(1 (QHVWHDUWtFXORVHHVWXGLDODRUJDQL]DFLyQGHODHFRQRPtDGHOWHUURULVPRFDUDFWHUL]iQGRODFRPRXQ PRGHORGHHFRQRPtDGHSUHGDGRUDGHJXHUUD(VWHPRGHORVHFRQILJXUDGHXQDPDQHUDRSXHVWDDOGH OD HFRQRPtD GH PRYLOL]DFLyQ TXH VH FRUUHVSRQGH FRQ OD FRQFHSFLyQ GH OD JXHUUD PRGHUQD (O WHUURULVPRSHUVLJXHODPRYLOL]DFLyQSROtWLFDDWUDYpVGHODYLROHQFLDTXHVHHMHUFHVREUHODSREODFLyQ FLYLO(OFRQWUROGHOWHUULWRULRVHORJUDDWUDYpVGHOPLHGRODGHVWUXFFLyQGHOFDSLWDO\ODYLRODFLyQGH ORVGHUHFKRVKXPDQRV(QWDOHVFLUFXQVWDQFLDVSDUDREWHQHUORVUHFXUVRVPDWHULDOHV\ILQDQFLHURVTXH QHFHVLWDQ ODV RUJDQL]DFLRQHV WHUURULVWDV GHVDUUROODQ DFWLYLGDGHV GH VDTXHR H[WRUVLyQ FRQWURO GHO PHUFDGRQHJURWUiILFRLOtFLWRGHGURJDVDUPDVGLDPDQWHV\PDWHULDVSULPDVHPEDUJDGDVEODQTXHR GH FDSLWDOHV \ REWHQFLyQ GH WUDQVIHUHQFLDV H[WHULRUHV /DV FRQVHFXHQFLDV GH HVWD HFRQRPtD GHSUHGDGRUDVH SODVPDQHQXQDUHGXFFLyQGHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHODHFRQRPtDFRQUHVSHFWRDVXQLYHO SRWHQFLDOHQXQDDOWHUDFLyQGHODVDFWLYLGDGHVGHOVHFWRUS~EOLFRDODXPHQWDUVHHOJDVWRHQGHIHQVD\ VHJXULGDG HQ XQ LQFUHPHQWR GH OD LQIODFLyQ \ HQ XQ GHWHULRUR GH ODV FRQGLFLRQHV GH YLGD GH OD SREODFLyQ 3DODEUDVFODYH7HUURULVPR(FRQRPtDGHJXHUUD6DTXHR([WRUVLyQ7UiILFRVLOHJDOHV'HVDUUROOR HFRQy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

.H\ZRUGV7HUURULVP:DU¶VHFRQRP\6DFNLQJ([WRUWLRQ,OOLFLWWUDIILF(FRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW (VWHWUDEDMRVHLQVFULEHGHQWURGHOSUR\HFWR+6(ILQDQFLDGRSRUOD&RPXQLGDGGH0DGULG (VWR\ HQ GHXGD FRQ 7KRPDV %DXPHUW SRU VX DWHQWD OHFWXUD GH OD SULPHUD YHUVLyQ GH HVWH WUDEDMR \ SRU VXV VXJHUHQFLDV SDUD DPSOLDU DOJXQR GH ORV DVSHFWRV WUDWDGRV OR TXH PH KD SHUPLWLGR PHMRUDU VX FRQWHQLGR /yJLFDPHQWHDVXPRODUHVSRQVDELOLGDGGHODVGHILFLHQFLDVTXHSXGLHUDQDGYHUWLUVHS RUORVOHFWRUHV

(3)

(O WHUURULVPR HV XQDIRUPDGHDFWXDFLyQSROtWLFDEDVDGDHQHOHMHUFLFLRGHXQD YLROHQFLD VLVWHPiWLFD SRU SDUWH GH ODV RUJDQL]DFLRQHV TXH OR DGRSWDQ FRQWUD ODV SHUVRQDV\ORVELHQHVFRQODTXHVHSHUVLJXHHOORJURGHODDGKHVLyQGHODS REODFLyQDVX FDXVDQRPHGLDQWHHOFRQYHQFLPLHQWRLGHROyJLFRVLQRSRUHOPLHGRKDVWDGREOHJDUOD YROXQWDGGHORVFLXGDGDQRV\GHO(VWDGRHQRUGHQDDFHSWDUODVH[LJHQFLDVGHDTXHOODV (VHQFLHUWDPDQHUDXQDIRUPDVLQJXODUGHJXHUUDFX\DVDFFLRQHVDUP DGDVVHGLVHxDQ\ HMHFXWDQFRQYLVWDVDFRQVHJXLUHOGHVLVWLPLHQWRGHODVRFLHGDGIUHQWHDODVSUHWHQVLRQHV GHGRPLQDFLyQRGHSRGHUGHODVUHIHULGDVRUJDQL]DFLRQHV(VWDIRUPDGHJXHUUDFRPR VHYHUiFRQGHWDOOHDFRQWLQXDFLyQDOFRQWUDULRGHODVHVWDEOH FLGDVFRQHOGHVDUUROORGHO (VWDGRPRGHUQRHVSHFLDOPHQWHGHVSXpVGHODVLQQRYDFLRQHVQDSROHyQLFDVQRWUDWDGH SUHVHUYDUHOWHUULWRULRSURSLRSDUDDVHQWDUVREUHVXVXHORXQDVDFWLYLGDGHVGHSURGXFFLyQ FRQODVTXHVRVWHQHUHOHVIXHU]REpOLFRVLQRTXHSURS LFLDVXGHVWUXFFLyQSDUDIDFLOLWDUOD H[WUDFFLyQGHORVUHFXUVRVPDWHULDOHV\ILQDQFLHURVTXHUHTXLHUHVXPDQWHQLPLHQWR /DJXHUUDPRGHUQD\ODHFRQRPtDGHODJXHUUD /DFRQFHSFLyQPRGHUQDGHODJXHUUDKDFHGHpVWDXQDDFWLYLGDGVRFLDOVXMHWDDOD SROtWLFD'HDFXHUGRFRQODGHILQLFLyQFOiVLFDGH&DUOYRQ&ODXVHZLW]©ODJXHUUD«HVXQ DFWRGHYLROHQFLDSDUDREOLJDUDOFRQWUDULRDKDFHUQXHVWUDYROXQWDGª6HWUDWDGHXQD

YLROHQFLDFRQFUHWDVLQJXODU\GLIHUHQFLDGDHQFDGDFDVR ²SXHV©OD JXHUUD\DQRHV XQ SURFHVRLGHDOª²TXHVHFRQILJXUDFRPRXQLQVWUXPHQWRSROtWLFRHQPDQRVGHO(VWDGR

/D JXHUUD SRGUi FRQFHELUVH DVt FRPR ©OD SURVHFXFLyQ GHO WUiILFR SROtWLFR FRQ OD LQWHUYHQFLyQGHRWURVPHGLRVªFRPR©XQLQVWUXPHQWRGHODSROtWLFDªTXHSUHVXSRQHOD

H[LVWHQFLDGHXQ(VWDGRQDFLRQDOHQIXQFLyQGHFX\RVLQWHUHVHVSXHGHQGHOLPLWDUVHXQ

QRVRWURV \XQQXHVWURHQHPLJR\SXHGHFRQFUHWDUVHHQTXpFRQVLVWHQXHVWUDYROXQWDG HVDYROXQWDGTXHHO(VWDGRTXLHUHLPSRQHUDVXDGYHUVDULR/DJXHUUDFRPRDFWLYLGDG GHO (VWDGR QDFLRQDO KD H[SHULPHQWDGR XQD SURIXQGD WUDQVIRUPDFLyQ D OR ODUJR GHO WLHPSRLQIOXLGDSRUODHYROXFLyQGHODVIRUPDVGHJRELHUQRODVWHFQRORJtDVGLVSRQLEOHV \ODVIRUPDVGHPRYLOL]DFLyQGHUHFXUVRV

6LJXLHQGRHOHVTXHPDHODERUDGRSRU.DOGRUTXHVHUHFRJHHQHOFXDGUR VH SXHGH GHVWDFDU D HVWH UHVSHFWR TXH FRQ OD IRUPDFLyQ GH ORV (VWDGRV DEVROXWLVWDV YHUGDGHURVHPEULRQHVGHO(VWDGRPRGHUQRVHFRQVROLGDDORODUJRGHORVVLJORV;9,,\ ;9,,,XQDQXHYDFRQFHSFLyQGHODJXHUUDFX\RVREMH WLYRVVHGHILQHQHQIXQFLyQGHOD

UD]yQGH(VWDGR(VWHFRQFHSWRFX\DSDWHUQLGDGFDEHDWULEXLUD$UPDQG-HDQGX3OHVVLV ²HOFDUGHQDOGH5LFKHOLHXSULPHUPLQLVWURGHOD)UDQFLDGH/XLV;,,, ² HVWDEOHFLyTXH ©HO ELHQHVWDU GHO (VWDGR MXVWLILFDED FXDOHVTXLHUD PHGLRV TXH VH HPSOHDUDQ SDUD SURPRYHUORª GH PDQHUD TXH D SDUWLU GH pO HO LQWHUpV QDFLRQDO VXVWLWX\y D OD LGHD

PHGLHYDOGHXQDPRUDOXQLYHUVDOFRPRHOHPHQWRUHFWRUGHODSROtWLFD\VHDFHSWyTXH

&IU&ODXVHZLW]SiJ &IULELGHPSiJ

&IULELGHPSiJ &IULELGHPSiJ

9pDVH.DOGRUFDStWXOR &IU.LVVLQJHUSiJ

(4)

SDUDORJUDUODSD]\ODVHJXULGDGFDGD(VWDGRGHEtDDF WXDUHQIXQFLyQGHVXVSDUWLFXODUHV LQWHUHVHVLGHQWLILFDEOHVFRQORVGHVXVREHUDQR7DOHVLQWHUHVHV²\SRUWDQWRORV

&XDGUR(YROXFLyQGHODJXHUUDHQHOPDUFRGHORV(VWDGRVQDFLRQDOHV

6LJORV;9,,\;9,,, 6LJOR;,; 3ULQFLSLRVGHOVLJOR;; )LQDOHVGHOVLJOR;;

7LSRGHJRELHUQR (VWDGRDEVROXWLVWD (VWDGRQDFLRQDO (VWDGRVPXOWLQDFLRQDOHV&RDOLFLRQHVGH(VWDGRV

,PSHULRV 3ROtWLFDGHEORTXHV

2EMHWLYRVGHOD JXHUUD

5D]yQGH(VWDGR x&RQIOLFWRVGLQiVWLFRV

x)LMDFLyQGHIURQWHUDV &RQIOLFWR QDFLRQDO

&RQIOLFWRQDFLRQDOH

LGHROyJLFR &RQIOLFWRLGHROyJLFR

7LSRGHHMpUFLWR 3URIHVLRQDOHV0HUFHQDULRV 6HUYLFLRREOLJDWRULR3URIHVLRQDOHV (MpUFLWRVGHPDVDV (OLWHFLHQWtILFR ±PLOLWDU(MpUFLWRSURIHVLRQDO

7pFQLFDPLOLWDU 0DQLREUDVGHIHQVLYDV$UPDVGHIXHJR $VHGLR )HUURFDUULO 7HOpJUDIR 0RYLOL]DFLyQUiSLGD 3RWHQFLDGHIXHJRDJUDQ HVFDOD 7DQTXHV\DYLRQHV $UPDVQXFOHDUHV (FRQRPtDGHOD

JXHUUD &DUJDVLPSRVLWLYDV(PSUpVWLWRV

([SDQVLyQGHOD DGPLQLVWUDFLyQ\OD

EXURFUDFLD

(FRQRPtDGHOD

PRYLOL]DFLyQ &RPSOHMRPLOLWDU ±LQGXVWULDO )XHQWH.DOGRU

REMHWLYRVGHODJXHUUD² VHLGHQWLILFDQEiVLFDPHQWHFRQODFRQWLQXLGDGGLQiVWLFDGHODV FDVDV UHDOHV \ FRQ ORV OtPLWHV IURQWHUL]RV QDFLRQDOHV GH PDQHUD TXH VX GHIHQVD R VX UHLYLQGLFDFLyQ VH FRQVLGHUDQ OHJtWLPDV LQFOXVR FXDQGR VH HPSOHDQ PHGLRV YLROHQWRV SDUDVRVWHQHUODV1RREVWDQWHODOHJLWLPLGDGVHFLUFXQVFULEHHVWUHFKDPHQWHDO(VWDGRGH IRUPDTXHFXDOTXLHUDJHQWHQRHVWDWDOTXHGDIXHUDGHHOOD6XUJHDVtXQDVSHFWRHVHQFLDO GH ODFRQILJXUDFLyQGHO(VWDGRPRGHUQRFRPRHVTXHVHOHDWULEX\DHOPRQRSROLRGHO HMHUFLFLROHJtWLPRGHODYLROHQFLD8QHMHUFLFLRTXHSRURWUDSDUWHQRHVDUELWUDULRVLQR TXH VH YH VXMHWR D GHWHUPLQDGDV UHJODV GH DFWXDFLyQ FX\R FXPSOLPLHQWR HV LPSUHVFLQGLEOHSDUDTXHODJXHUUDTXHGHOHJLWLPDGD(VDVUHJODVDOXGHQDORVVLJXLHQWHV DVSHFWRV

x /D JXHUUD VyOR FRUUHVSRQGH D ORV (VWDGRV VREHUDQRV GH PDQHUD TXH FXDOTXLHU RWUR HMHUFLFLR DUPDGR GH OD YLROHQFLD VH FRQVLGHUD XQD DFWLYLGDG FULPLQDO

x /D JXHUUD SRU RWUD SDUWH OD KDFHQ ORV VROGDGRV ²PHUFHQDULRV R SURIHVLRQDOHV² TXH KDQ VLGR KDELOLWDGRV SDUD LQYROXFUDUVH HQ OD YLROHQFLD DUPDGD HQ QRPEUH GHO (VWDGR /RV VROGDGRV KDQ GH HVWDU DVt GHELGDPHQWH HQURODGRVHQHOHMpUFLWR\FRQWURODGRVSRUVXVPDQGRVKDQGHOXFKD UYHVWLGRVGH XQLIRUPH ²\ SRU WDQWR GLIHUHQFLDGRV GH OD SREODFLyQ FLYLO ² SRUWDQGR VXV DUPDVDODGHVFXELHUWD\REHGHFLHQGRODVyUGHQHVGLUHFWDVGHXQMHIHTXHSXHGD DVXPLUODUHVSRQVDELOLGDGGHVXVDFFLRQHV

x )LQDOPHQWHODVDFFLRQHVGHHVRVVROGDGRVKDQ GHVXMHWDUVHDOHPSOHRGH PpWRGRV KRQRUDEOHV ²OR TXH H[FOX\H OD UHDOL]DFLyQ GH DFWRV UXLQHV FRPR OD YLRODFLyQGHODVWUHJXDVRHOXVRGHODVDUPDVGHVSXpVGHVHUKHFKRSULVLRQHUR ²

(5)

\ GHEHQ RULHQWDUVH FRQWUD ORV HQHPLJRV FRPEDWLHQWHV FRQWUD ORV VROGDGRV G HO HMpUFLWRFRQWUDULRGHELHQGRGHMDUVHWUDQTXLODDODSREODFLyQFLYLOVLHPSUHTXHOR SHUPLWDQODVQHFHVLGDGHVPLOLWDUHV

3DUD VRVWHQHU HO HVIXHU]R EpOLFR GHVDUUROODGR SRU HMpUFLWRV SHUPDQHQWHV ORV (VWDGRV WXYLHURQ TXH DUWLFXODU ORV SURFHGLPLHQWRV QHFHVD ULRV SDUD DOOHJDUORVUHFXUVRV ILQDQFLHURV UHTXHULGRV 6H HVWDEOHFLy DVt XQD $GPLQLVWUDFLyQ FDSD] GH UHFDXGDU LPSXHVWRV \ GH QHJRFLDU HPSUpVWLWRV RUJDQL]DQGR GH HVWD PDQHUD ODV ILQDQ]DV GHO (VWDGRGHDFXHUGRFRQODVQHFHVLGDGHVGHXQJDVWRPLOLWDUTXHGX UDQWHHOVLJOR;9,,, VXSRQtDHQWRUQRDWUHVFXDUWRVGHOJDVWRS~EOLFRWRWDO(QGHILQLWLYDODHFRQRPtDGHOD

JXHUUDJUDYLWDEDVREUHODDGPLQLVWUDFLyQGHOVLVWHPDILVFDOEDMRHOSULQFLSLRLPSOtFLWRGH TXHDOVREHUDQROHFRUUHVSRQGtDODSURWHFFLyQGHVXV V~EGLWRV\DFDPELRpVWRVGHEtDQ DVXPLUODFDUJDGHORVJDVWRVFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHV

&RQ OD FRQVROLGDFLyQ GHO (VWDGR QDFLRQDO \ OD H[SHULHQFLD GH ODV JXHUUDV QDSROHyQLFDV HQWUH HO ILQDO GHO VLJOR ;9,,, \ HO FRPLHQ]R GHO ;,; DOJXQRV GH ORV DVSHFWRVDQWHVHQXQFLDGRVFREUDURQXQQXHYRVLJQLILFDGR$VtORVREMHWLYRVGHODJXHUUD VH DPSOLDURQ DO LGHQWLILFDUVH QXHYRV LQWHUHVHV QDFLRQDOHV HVSHFLDOPHQWH ORV UHODFLRQDGRV FRQ HO DIiQ GH H[SDQVLyQ WHUULWRULDO R FRQ OD DPSOLDFLyQ GHO iUHD GH LQIOXHQFLD LQWHUQDFLRQDO $GHPiV OD JXHUUD VH KL]R SRSXODU HQ HO VHQWLGR GH TXH HQ HOODHPSH]yDSDUWLFLSDUWRGRHOSXHEORDOKDFHUVHREOLJDWRULRHOVHUYLFLRPLOLWDU(VWD LQQRYDFLyQLQWURGXFLGDSRU1DSROHyQHQ)UDQFLDFRQGXMRDODIRUPDFLyQGHHMpUFLWRV PX\ QXPHURVRV \ FRQ HOORV D OD QHFHVLGDG GH DUPDU WUDQVSRUWDU \ DEDVWHFHU D FHQWHQDUHV GH PLOHV GH VROGDGRV 6REUH HVWD EDVHXQ LPSRUWDQWH FRQMXQWR GH DYDQFHV WHFQROyJLFRVTXHVHGHVDUUROODURQVREUHWRGRGXUDQWHODVHJXQGDPLWDGGHOVLJOR;,; FRQWULEX\y D UHYROXFLRQDU OD WpFQLFD GH OD JXHUUD 6H WUDWD IXQGDPHQWDOPHQWH GH OD LQFRUSRUDFLyQ GHO IHUURFDUULO D ODORJtVWLFDSRUVXDSWLWXGSDUDHOWUDQVSRUWHPDVLYRGH WURSDV \ SHUWUHFKRV ²OR TXH VH KL]R SRU SULPHUD YH] HQ ± GXUDQWH OD JXHUUD IUDQFR±SUXVLDQD²GHOHPSOHRGHOWHOpJUDIRHQODVFRPXQLFDFLRQHVPLOLWDUHV ²ORTXH VH GHULYy GH ODV LQQRYDFLRQHV LQWURGXFLGDV SRU :HUQHU YRQ 6LHPHQV HQ FRQ RFDVLyQ GH OD JXHUUD HQWUH 3UXVLD \ 'LQDPDUFD ² DFHOHUDQGR DVt OD WUDQVPLVLyQ GH yUGHQHV H LQIRUPDFLyQ \ GH OD DSOLFDFLyQ GH ODV WHFQRORJtDV PDQXIDFWXUHUDV D OD SURGXFFLyQGHDUPDPHQWRORTXHHQORVFDVRVGH$OHPDQLD\*UDQ%UHWDxDVREUHWRGR FRQODDGRSFLyQGHSURJUDPDVGHFRQVWUXFFLyQQDYDOGHJXHUUDGDUtDOXJDUDODDSDULFLyQ GH XQ LQFLSLHQWH FRPSOHMR PLOLWDU±LQGXVWULDO < D WRGR HOOR VH DxDGLy HQ HO SODQR

RUJDQL]DWLYRODIRUPDFLyQGHDOLDQ]DVPLOLWDUHVHVWDEOHVTXHSURSLFLDUtDQ\DHQHOVLJOR ;;HOGHVHQFDGHQDPLHQWRGHJXHUUDVGHDOFDQFHPXQGLDO

(Q HVWH FRQWH[WR GH FDPELR HQ OD FRQILJXUDFLyQ GH ODV DFWLYLGDG HV EpOLFDV VH LQVFULEHODFRGLILFDFLyQGHGHODVOH\HVGHODJXHUUDORTXHGDUiOXJDUDODIRUPDFLyQGHO GHUHFKR LQWHUQDFLRQDO KXPDQLWDULR eVWH FX\D GREOH ILQDOLGDG QR HV RWUD TXH OD OLPLWDFLyQGHODFDSDFLGDGGHGHVWUXFFLyQEpOLFD\ODHYLWDFLyQGHFXD OTXLHUVXIULPLHQWR

9LG SDUD XQD H[WHQVD FRQVLGHUDFLyQ GH HVWH SXQWR .HQQHG\ FDStWXOR ,,, (VWH DXW RU VHxDOD FRQ

UHODFLyQD)UDQFLDHO,PSHULR+DEVEXUJR3UXVLD*UDQ%UHWDxD\5XVLDTXHODVILQDQ]DVIXHURQ©PXFKRPiV LPSRUWDQWHVTXHFXDOTXLHUDGHODVPHMRUDVHVWULFWDPHQWHPLOLWDUHVSDUDH[SOLFDUODSRVLFLyQUHODWLYDRFXSDGDSRU ODVJUDQGHVSRWHQFLDV HQWUH\ªFIULELGHPSiJ

(Q.HQQHG\ FDStWXOR9VHH[DPLQDQ HVWRV \RWURVHOHPHQWRV SDUDORVFDVRVFRQFUHWRVGH(VWDGRV

(6)

TXH UHVXOWH LQQHFHVDULR SDUD DOFDQ]DU ORV REMHWLYRV PLOLWDUHV VH YLR LPSXOVDGR

SULQFLSDOPHQWHDUDt]GHODEDWDOODGH6ROIHULQRSRUHOJLQHEULQR-HDQ ±+HQUL'XQDQW IXQGDGRU GH OD &UX] 5RMD ,QWHUQDFLRQDO )XH HQ HIHFWR GHVSXpV GH OD IXQGDFLyQ GH

HVWD RUJDQL]DFLyQ HQ FXDQGR VH DFRUGy OD SULPHUD&RQYHQFLyQ GH *LQHEUD\ VH UHFXSHUDURQ DVt ©ODV DQWLJXDV WUDGLFLRQHV PLOLWDUHV GHO KRQRU DSOLFiQGRODV D OD JXHUUD GHPRFUiWLFDª\VHH[WHQGLHURQ©ODVQRUPDVGHFRQGXFWDHQFXDQWRDODDV LVWHQFLDDORV KHULGRV \ HO UHFXHUGR GH ORV PXHUWRV« DO KRPEUH FRP~Qª GDQGR OXJDU D OD

FRGLILFDFLyQ GHO ©KRQRU GH ORV JXHUUHURV HXURSHRVª \ D VX XQLYHUVDOL]DFLyQ $ HVD

&RQYHQFLyQ VHJXLUiQ KDVWD QXHVWURV GtDV FRPR PXHVWUD HO FXDGUR RWURV P~OWLSOHV LQVWUXPHQWRV MXUtGLFRV FRQ HO ILQ GH UHJXODU HO WUDWDPLHQWR GH ORV SULVLRQHURV ORV QR FRPEDWLHQWHVORVKHULGRV\HQIHUPRVHOFRQFHSWRGHQHFHVLGDGPLOLWDUODGHOLPLWDFLyQ GH ODV DUPDV \ ODV WiFWLFDV SURKLELGDV OD VDQFLyQ GH ORV FULPLQDOHV GH JXHUUD HO JHQRFLGLR\RWURVDVSHFWRV

&XDGUR(YROXFLyQGHOGHUHFKRLQWHUQDFLRQDOGHODJXHUUD

$xR 1RUPD $VSHFWRVUHJXODGRV

&RQYHQFLyQGH*LQHEUD +HULGRVGHODVIXHU]DVDUPDGDVHQFDPSDxD 'HFODUDFLyQGH6DQ3HWHUVEXUJR 5HQXQFLDDOHPSOHRGHSUR\H FWLOHVH[SORVLYRV 'HFODUDFLyQGH/D+D\D /H\HV\FRVWXPEUHVGHODJXHUUDWHUUHVWUH

3URWRFRORGH*LQHEUD 3URKLELFLyQGHJDVHVDVIL[LDQWHV\YHQHQRVRV\PHGLRVEDFWHULROyJLFRV &RQYHQLRGH*LQHEUD +HULGRV\HQIHUPRVGHODVIXHU]DVDUPDGDVWH UUHVWUHV (VWDWXWRGH1XUHPEHUJ (QMXLFLDPLHQWR\FDVWLJRGHFULPLQDOHVGHJXHUUD&DUWDGHO7ULEXQDO0LOLWDU,QWHUQDFLRQDO &RQYHQLRVREUHHO*HQRFLGLR 3UHYHQFLyQ\VDQFLyQGHOFULPHQGHJHQRFLGLR

,&RQYHQLRGH*LQHEUD +HULGRV\HQIHUPRVGH ODVIXHU]DVDUPDGDVHQFDPSDxD ,,&RQYHQLRGH*LQHEUD +HULGRVHQIHUPRV\QiXIUDJRVGHODVIXHU]DVDUPDGDVHQHOPDU ,,,&RQYHQLRGH*LQHEUD 7UDWDPLHQWRGHORVSULVLRQHURVGHJXHUUD

,9&RQYHQLRGH*LQHEUD 3URWHFFLyQGHORVFLYLOHVHQWLH PSRVGHJXHUUD &RQYHQLRVREUH%LHQHV&XOWXUDOHV 3URWHFFLyQGHELHQHVFXOWXUDOHVHQORVFRQIOLFWRVDUPDGRV &RQYHQFLyQVREUH$UPDV%LROyJLFDV 3URKLELFLyQGHDUPDVEDFWHULROyJLFDVELROyJLFDV\Wy[LFDV 3URWRFRORDGLFLRQDO, 3URWHFFLyQGHODV YtFWLPDVGHORVFRQIOLFWRVDUPDGRVLQWHUQDFLRQDOHV 3URWRFRORDGLFLRQDO,, 3URWHFFLyQGHODVYtFWLPDVGHORVFRQIOLFWRVDUPDGRVQRLQWHUQDFLRQDOHV &RQYHQLRVREUH$UPDV&RQYHQFLRQDOHV 3URKLELFLyQRUHVWULFFLyQGHOXVRGHDUPDVFRQYHQFLRQDOHVH[ FHVLYDPHQWHQRFLYDVRGHHIHFWRVLQGLVFULPLQDGRV

3URWRFROR, )UDJPHQWRVQRORFDOL]DEOHV

3URWRFROR,, (PSOHRGHPLQDVDUPDVWUDPSD\RWURVDUWHIDFWRV

3URWRFROR,,, (PSOHRGHDUPDVLQFHQGLDULDV

7ULEXQDO3HQDO,QWHUQDFLRQDOSDUD<XJRVODYLD (QMXLFLDPLHQWRGHORVUHVSRQVDEOHVGHJHQRFLGLR\RWUDVYLRODFLRQHVGHOGHUHFKRLQWHUQDFLRQDOHQ<XJRVODYLDDSDUWLUGH 7ULEXQDO3HQDO,QWHUQDFLRQDOSDUD5ZDQGD (QMXLFLDPLHQWRGHORVUHVSRQVDEOHVGHJHQRFLGLR\RWUDVYLRODFLRQHVGHOGHUHFKRLQWHUQDFLRQDOHQ5ZDQGD\ORVHVWDGRVYHFLQRVHQ 3HUVRQDOGH1DFLRQHV8QLGDV 6HJXULGDGGHOSHUVRQDOGH1DFLRQHV8QLGDV 3URWRFROR,9 $UPDVOiVHUFHJDGRUDV 3URWRFROR,, 3URKLELFLyQGHOHPSOHRGHPLQDVDUPDVWUDPSD\RWURVDUWHIDFWRV 7UDWDGRGH2WWDZD 3URKLELFLyQGHPLQDVDQWLSHUVRQDOHV (VWDWXWRGH5RPD (VWDWXWRGHO7ULEXQDO3HQDO,QWHUQDFLRQDO &RQYHQLRVREUH%LHQHV&XOWXUDOHV 6HJXQGRSURWRFRORGHO&RQYHQLRVREUH%LHQHV&XOWXUDOHV &RQYHQLRVREUH'HUHFKRVGHO1L xR 3URWRFRORVREUHSDUWLFLSDFLyQGHORVQLxRVHQORVFRQIOLFWRVDUPDGRV )XHQWH(ODERUDGRDSDUWLUGH*XWPDQ\5LHII

9LGSDUDXQDFRQVLGHUDF LyQJHQHUDOGHOGHUHFKRLQWHUQDFLRQDOKXPDQLWDULR%RXFKHW ±6DXOQLHU 6REUHHVWHSXQWRSXHGHYHUVH,JQDWLHIISiJV\VV\FRQDIiQGHVtQWHVLV,JQDWLHII &IU,JQDWLHIISiJ

(7)

<SRURWUDSDUWHODHFRQRPtDGHODJXHUUDDGTXLULyXQDFUHFLHQWHFRPSOHMLGDG GH PDQHUD TXH DSR\iQGRVH HQ XQ DSDUDWR EXURFUiWLF R±DGPLQLVWUDWLYR FDGD YH] PiV H[WHQVR VH RULHQWyQRVyORKDFLDODREWHQFLyQGHORVFDXGDOHVFRQORVTXHDIURQWDUHO JDVWR EpOLFR VLQR WDPELpQ KDFLD OD SURGXFFLyQ \ GLVWULEXFLyQ GHO DUPDPHQWR \ ORV SHUWUHFKRVPLOLWDUHV6XUJHDVtHOHPEULyQGHODHFRQRPtD GHPRYLOL]DFLyQTXHDGTXLULUi VX SOHQD FRQILJXUDFLyQ FRQ HO GHVSXQWDU GHO VLJOR ;; 8QD HFRQRPtD TXH DVHQWDGD ILUPHPHQWHVREUHHOWHUULWRULRQDFLRQDOEXVFDUiODDFWLYDFLyQGHWRGRVORVUHFXUVRV QDFLRQDOHV²ILQDQFLHURVKXPDQRVWHFQROyJLFRVDJUDULRVHLQGXVWULDOHV² SDUDVRVWHQHU OD JXHUUD \ TXH EDMR HO FRQFHSWR GH ©JXHUUD WRWDOª GHVDUUROODGR SRU HO JHQHUDO /XGHQGRUII HQJORED XQD PXOWLSOLFLGDG GH DFWLYLGDGHV SURGXFWLYDV ORJtVWLFDV

DGPLQLVWUDWLYDV\GHSURSDJDQGDVXMHWDVDXQDSODQLILFDFLy QFHQWUDOL]DGD

(Q HO FXUVR GHO VLJOR ;; VXVWHQWDGRV VREUH OD H[SHULHQFLD GH GRV JXHUUDV PXQGLDOHV \ GHO ODUJR SHUtRGR GH JXHUUD IUtD ²HQ HO TXH HO QLYHO SRWHQFLDO GH HQIUHQWDPLHQWR HQWUH ORV EORTXHV IRUPDGRV SRU ODV QDFLRQHV GHPRFUiWLFDV \ ODV FRPXQLVWDVOOHJyDH[WUHPRVKDVWDHQWRQFHVGHVFRQRFLGRV ² ORVHOHPHQWRVSUHFHGHQWHV DFDEDURQ DGTXLULHQGR WRGR VX GHVDUUROOR $Vt OD MXVWLILFDFLyQ GH OD JXHUUD SRU ORV LQWHUHVHVQDFLRQDOHVVHH[WHQGLyKDFLDORVGHODVFRDOLFLRQHVGH(VWDGRVKDVWDOOHJDUDOD RUJDQL]DFLyQ GH EORTXHV PLOLWDUHV SHUPDQHQWHV ²FRPR HV HO FDVR GH OD 27$1 R GHO 3DFWR GH 9DUVRYLD² 3RURWUDSDUWHD UDt] GH OD 6HJXQGD *XHUUD0XQGLDO ²TXH IXH FRQFHELGDSRUODVQDFLRQHVDOLDGDVFRPRXQDJXHUUDFRQWUDHOPDO ²ODILMDFLyQGHORV REMHWLYRV GH OD DFFLyQ EpOLFD GHMy GH HVWDU GHWHUPLQDGD VyOR SRU ORV FRQIOLFWRV QDFLRQDOHVSDUDGDUHQWUDGDDODVULYDOLGDGHVLGHROyJLFDV$GHPiVORVHMpUFLWRVIXHURQ \D SDUD VLHPSUH HMpUFLWRV GH PDVDV TXH UHFOXWDEDQ D XQD PXOWLWXG GH VROGDGRV /DV WHFQRORJtDV PLOLWDUHV ²EDVDGDV HQ FRPSOHMRV VLVWHPDV GH ODERUDWRULRV GH ,' ² H[SHULPHQWDURQ XQ GHVDUUROOR VLQ SUHFHGHQWHV GDQGR OXJDU D VLVWHPDV GH DUPDV FUHFLHQWHPHQWHVRILVWLFDGRV\FDGDYH]PiVHILFDFHVHQFXDQWRDVXSRWHQFLDGHVWUXFWRUD ²OR TXH VHJ~Q VH KD PRVWUDGR HQ HO FXDGUR UHTXLULy HQ FLHUWRV FDVRV FRPR ORV UHIHULGRVDODUPDPHQWRTXtPLFR\ELROyJLFRODVPLQDVORVDUWHIDFWRVLQFHQGLDULRVRORV OiVHUHV FHJDGRUHV GH DFXHUGRV LQWHUQDFLRQDOHV SDUD OLPLWDU R SURKLELU VX XVR \ SURGXFFLyQ R FRPR HQ HO DUPDPHQWR QXFOHDU SDUD LPSHGLU VX SUROLIHUDFLyQ² < OD HFRQRPtDGHJXHUUDVHDPSOLyKDFLDHOWLHPSRGHSD]FRQHOGHVDUUROORGHXQFRPSOHMR PLOLWDU±LQGXVWULDO EDVDGR HQ OD SODQLILFDFLyQ D ODUJR SOD]R GH OD SURGXFFLyQ \ DGTXLVLFLyQ GH QXHYRV VLVWHPDV GH DUPDV FDSDF HV GH GDU UHVSXHVWD D ODV DPHQD]DV SHUFLELGDV\DORVFDPELDQWHVGHVDItRVGHODHVWUDWHJLDEpOLFD

/DGLVROXFLyQGHORVSULQFLSLRVPRUDOHVGHODJXHUUDPRGHUQD

(Q HO FXUVR GHO FDVL PHGLR VLJOR TXH GLVFXUULy FRQ SRVWHULRULGDGD OD 6HJXQGD *XHUUD 0XQGLDO GHQWUR GHO PDUFR HVWDEOHFLGR SRU OD *XHUUD )UtD DOJXQRV GH ORV SULQFLSLRV\YDORUHVVRFLDOPHQWHDFHSWDGRVVREUHODJXHUUDHPSH]DURQDVHUGLVFXWLGRV\ HQ EXHQD PHGLGD UHSXGLDGRV D OD OX] GH OD H[SHULHQFLD YLYLGD (VH GHEDWH VXUJH GHO KHFKR GH TXH ODV JUDQGHV JXHUUDV GHO VLJOR ;; IXHURQ JXHUUDV WRWDOHV HQ ODV TXH VH LPSOLFDURQ ORV (VWDGRV QDFLRQDOHV D WUDYpV GH DPSOLDV FRDOLFLRQHV \ WDPELpQ ODV VRFLHGDGHV FLYLOHV GDQGR DVt OXJDU D XQD FLHUWD HYDQHVFHQFLD GH OD IURQWHUD HQWUH OR

(8)

S~EOLFR\ORSULYDGR HQWUHHOiPELWRGHORPLOLWDU\GHORFLYLOHQWUHORVFRPEDWLHQWHV\ ORV QR FRPEDWLHQWHV /RV REMHWLYRV GH OD JXHUUD QR HVWXYLHURQ GHVGH HQWRQFHV SULQFLSDOPHQWH FHQWUDGRV HQ HO WHUUHQR PLOLWDU VLQR TXH VH H[WHQGLHURQ VREUH ODV DFWLYLGDGHV HFRQyPLFDV ODV LQIUDHVWUXFWXUDV ODV IiEULFDV \ ORV VLVWHPDV GH WUDQVSRUWH TXHFRQVWLWXtDQHOIXQGDPHQWRORJtVWLFRGHORVHMpUFLWRV/DGHVWUXFFLyQGHHVRVPHGLRV GHSURGXFFLyQVHFRQVLGHUyOHJtWLPDSRUVXFRQWULEXFLyQDOHVIXHU]REpOLFRDOLJXDOTXH ODPDWDQ]DGHFLYLOHV²HPSH]DQGRSRUHOERPEDUGHRGH*XHUQLFD\DFDEDQGRSRUORV

GH +LURVKLPD \ 1DJDVDNL² VH MXVWLILFy SRU HVWLPDUVH TXH PLQDU OD PRUDO GH ORV HQHPLJRVHUDXQDQHFHVLGDGPLOLWDU

(ODUPDQXFOHDU©DUPDDEVROXWDªGHXQDFDSDFLGDGGHVWUXFWLYDVLQSUHFHGH QWHV SXVRHQHYLGHQFLDODSRVLELOLGDGGHODHOLPLQDFLyQGHFXDOTXLHUDWLVERGHKXPDQLGDGHQ HO KHFKR GH OD JXHUUD 6X GHVDUUROOR FRPR KD GHVWDFDGR 7RGRURY QRIXHREUDGHORV (VWDGRV WRWDOLWDULRV VLQR GHO ©(VWDGR GHPRFUiWLFR SRU H[FHOHQFLD (VWDGRV 8QLG RV TXLHQ OD SXVR D SXQWR« \ GHFLGLy LQPHGLDWDPHQWH XWLOL]DUODª GHELGR D XQ FRQMXQWR FRPSOHMR GH UD]RQHV TXH WLHQHQ TXH YHU FRQ OD UHLYLQGLFDFLyQ GH OD SULPDFtD HQ HO ©UHSDUWRGHOPXQGRª©ODYHQJDQ]DªSRUODDFFLyQMDSRQHVDVREUH3HDUO+DUERU ²©XQD DIUHQWD TXH KDEtD TXH ODYDUª² ©HO UDFLVPR DQWLMDSRQpVª \ HO ©HIHFWR GHO SURSLR LPSXOVR TXH OOHYy D OD IDEULFDFLyQ GH OD ERPEDª GH PDQHUD TXH ©SXHVWR TXH HO SUR\HFWRVHKDEtDLQLFLDGRKDEtDTXHOOHYDUORKDVWDHOILQª/DVFRQVHFXHQFLDVGHHVD

GHFLVLyQ VRQ FODUDV \ WHUULEOHV HO PDO \D QR VHUtD GHVGH HQWRQFHV XQ SDWULPRQLR H[FOXVLYRGHODVSRWHQFLDVWRWDOLWDULDVXQUHVXOWDGRGHODE~VTXHGDGHOSRGHUDEVROXWR VLQRTXHSRGtDGHVSUHQGHUVHWDPELpQGHODOXFKDFRQWUDHVHSRGHU<SRUHOORDXQTXH ©HOWRWDOLWDULVPRSXHGDSDUHFHUQRV«HOLPSHULRGHOPDOGHHOORQRVHVLJXH«TXHOD GHPRFUDFLDHQFDUQHVLHPSUH\HQWRGDVSDUWHVHOUHLQRGHOELHQª 3RUWDOPRWLYRHODUPDPHQWRQXFOHDUDOLJXDOTXHRWURVVLVWHPDVGHDUPDVGH GHVWUXFFLyQPDVLYDSRQHQHQFXHVWLyQODVLGHDV\FUHHQFLDVSUHFHGHQWHVVREUHODJXHUUD (Q SDUWLFXODU D SDUWLU GH HOORV \D QR SXHGH DFHSWDUVH TXH HO LQWHUpV GHO (VWDGR SURSRUFLRQH XQD MXVWLILFDFLyQ SDUD OD JXHUUD SXHV HO SRGHU GHVWUXFWRU TXH VH SRQH HQ MXHJRKDFHTXHWUDVVXHPSOHRTXHGHDQXODGDFXDOTXLHUYHQWDMDLQFOXVRODH[LVWHQFLD GH OD SURSLD KXPDQLGDG SXHGH YHUVH DPHQD]DGD VL HO FRQIOLFWR QXFOHDU OOHJDUD D GHVDUUROODUVHFRQWRGDVXSRWHQFLD$GHPiVVLORVFLYLOHVQRFRPEDWLHQWHVSDVDQDVHU FRQVLGHUDGRV REMHWLYRV OHJtWLPRV HQWRQFHV TXHGD DQXODGR HO YLHMR SDUDGLJPD HVWDEOHFLGR SRU HO KRQRU GH ORV JXHUUHURV \ OD JXHUUD VH FRQYLHUWH HQ XQ FULPHQ VLQ UHJODV

3RURWUDSDUWHFRQODPDVLILFDFLyQGHORVHMpUFLWRV\ODIRUPDFLyQGHFRDOLFLRQHV HVWDEOHVHOLQWHUpVGHO(VWDGRIXHPLQiQGRVHSURJUHVLYDPHQWHHQWDQWRTXHPRWLYDFLyQ GH OD JXHUUD /D PRYLOL]DFLyQ GH PLOORQHV GH KRPEUHV HQ ORV FRQIOLFWRV UHTXHUtD XQD MXVWLILFDFLyQ LGHROyJLFD FDSD] GH LQGXFLU XQD HOHYDGD PRUDO GH FRPEDWH HQWUH ORV VROGDGRV 7DO MXVWLILFDFLyQ FRPR GHVWDFy - *O HQQ *UD\ SHUPLWtD ©HVWDEOHFHU XQD LPDJHQGHOHQHPLJRFRQODTXHGLIHUHQFLDU«UDGLFDOPHQWH«HODFWRGHPDWDUFRQHO

9LG 6RXWKZRUWK\SDUDXQDKLVWRULDRUDODSDUWLUGHORV WHVWLPRQLRVGHORVLPSOLFDGRV7KRPDV\

0RUJDQ±:LWWV

&IUSDUDORVHQWUHFRPLOODGRVGHHVWHSiUUDIR7RGRURYSiJVD &IULELGHPSiJ

(9)

GHDVHVLQDUª'HDFXHUGRFRQHVWHDXWRUDOGHVDSDUHFHU©ODVFRQYHQFLRQHVGHODpWLFD

PLOLWDUª \ FRQ HOODV ©ODV UHVWULFFLRQHV FRQ UHVSH FWR D OD PDQHUD GH DFDEDU FRQ OD YROXQWDG GHO HQHPLJR« FRQ D\XGD GH OD SURSDJDQGD VH DOFDQ]y UiSLGDPHQWH XQD PRUDOLGDGWHUULEOHPHQWHVLPSOLILFDGDª\VHDGPLWLyTXH©FXDOTXLHUDFWRTXHD\XGDUD«D JDQDU OD JXHUUD HUD FRUUHFWR \ EXHQRª\ SDUD HOOR VH SUH FLVy ©XQD LPDJHQ WtSLFD GHO HQHPLJR«FRQGLFLRQDGDSRUODQHFHVLGDGGHRGLDUOHVLQOtPLWHVª'HHVWDPDQHUDHO

GLVFXUVR SDWULyWLFR HQYROYLy ODV DFFLRQHV GH OD (QWHQWH GXUDQWH OD 3ULPHUD *XHUUD 0XQGLDOHQWDQWRTXHODOXFKDFRQWUDHOPDOVLUYLySDUDOHYDQ WDUODPRUDOGHORVHMpUFLWRV DOLDGRV GXUDQWH OD 6HJXQGD \ OD DILUPDFLyQ GH OD GHPRFUDFLD IUHQWH DO WRWDOLWDULVPR UHSUHVHQWDGRSRUHOVLVWHPDVRYLpWLFRIXHHOVXVWUDWRVREUHHOTXHVHDVHQWyODKHJHPRQtD QRUWHDPHULFDQDHQHOVHQRGHOD27$1PLHQWUDVGXUy OD*XHUUD)UtD6LQHPEDUJRHVWDV PRWLYDFLRQHV LGHROyJLFDV DFDEDURQ SRU VHU UHFKD]DGDV EDMR HO LQIOXMR GH ORV PRYLPLHQWRV SDFLILVWDV \ GH RWUDV RUJDQL]DFLRQHV HPHUJHQWHV GH OD VRFLHGDG FLYLO

SHUGLHQGR VX VLJQLILFDGR HQ FRQIOLFWRV WDQ UHOHYDQWHV FRPR ORV GH 9LHWQDP R GH $IJDQLVWiQ OR TXH FRQGXMR HQ DPERV FDVRV D OD GHUURWD PRUDO \ PLOLWDU GH QRUWHDPHULFDQRV\VRYLpWLFRV

)LQDOPHQWH DXQTXH WDO YH] GH PDQHUD SDUDGyMLFD HO SURFHVR GH HYDQHVFHQFLD UHDO GH ODV UHJODV GH OD JXHUUD LQGXFLGR SRU VX VLVWHPi WLFR LQFXPSOLPLHQWR HQ ORV FRQIOLFWRV GHO VLJOR ;; IXH DFRPSDxDGR GH XQ LPSRUWDQWH GHVDUUROOR OHJLVODWLYR LQWHUQDFLRQDO SDUD UHIRU]DUODV VHJ~Q VH KD PRVWUDGR DQWHV HQ HO FXDGUR < HQ HVWH FRQWH[WRUHQDFLyHOGHEDWHDFHUFDGHODSRVLELOLGDGGHTXHOD JXHUUDPLVPDSXGLHUDVHU LOHJtWLPD /D GLVFXVLyQ DFHUFD GH OD ©MXVWLFLDª R OHJLWLPLGDG GH OD JXHUUD YLHQH GH DQWLJXR\VHVXVFLWyDSDUWLUGHODFRQWUDGLFFLyQH[LVWHQWHHQWUHHOOHJDGRLGHROyJLFRGH 5RPDWUDVODFDtGDGHOLPSHULR ²VHJ~QHOFXDOODJXHUUDQRWLHQHRWUDMXVWLILFDFLyQTXH ODFRQTXLVWDGHOSRGHU² \ORVSULQFLSLRVPRUDOHVGHO&ULVWLDQLVPRSULPHUR\GHO,VODP GHVSXpV/DDSRUWDFLyQVHPLQDODOGHEDWHIXHODGHVDQ$JXVWtQGH+LSRQDTXLHQHQ

/D FLXGDG GH 'LRV GHIHQGLy OD LGHD GH TXH ©OD JXHUUD« HV MXVWLILFDGD VyOR SRU OD LQMXVWLFLDGHXQDJUHVRUªVLHQGRVX©REMHWLYR«ODSD]ªDXQTXHHQWHQGLyHVWD~OWLPD

FRPR OD SD] GH 'LRV OR TXH SHUPLWLy TXH VX GRFWULQD SXGLHUD LQWHUSUHWDUVH WDPELpQ FRPR OHJLWLPDFLyQ GH ODV FUX]DGDV LQVSLUDGDV HQ OD UHOLJ LyQ (VWH GXDOLVPR DSDUHFtD WDPELpQHQHO&RUiQSXHVDOPDQGDWRGHFRPEDWLUVyORHQGHIHQVDSURSLDVHDxDGtDFRQ LQVLVWHQFLDODOODPDGDDXQD\LKDGRJXHUUDVDQWDFRQWUDORVLQILHOHVKDVWDVXVXPLVLyQR VXFRPSOHWDGHVWUXFFLyQ6LQHPEDUJR)UDQFLVFRGH9LWRULD²\FRQpOGHODHVFXHOD

GH6DODPDQFDHQHOVLJOR;9,² YLQRDQHJDUODOHJLWLPLGDGGHFXDOTXLHUJXHUUDVDQWD\ UHFRQGXMR KDFLD OD SURSLD GHIHQVD HO DUJXPHQWR GH OD FDXVD MXVWD SDUD HPSUHQGHU

&IU*UD\SiJ3DUDHVWHWHPDHVHVSHFLDOPHQWHLQWHUHVDQWHHOFDStWXOR &IU*UD\SiJ

9LGSDUDHVWH\RWURVDVSHFWRVUHODFLRQDGRV.DOGRUFDStWXOR

9LG&DUUFDStWXOR(Q:DO]HU\ VHDQDOL]DH[WHQVDPHQWHODFXHVWLyQGHODOHJLWLPLGDG

GH OD JXHUUD WDQWR HQ XQD SHUVSHFWLYD DEVWUDFWD FRPR HQ RWUD DSOLFDGD D FRQIOLFWRV FRQFUHWRV LQFOXLGR HO WHUURULVPR

/DFLXGDGGH'LRV'HFLYLWDWH'HL VHHVFULELyHQWUHORVDxRV\ /DVFLWDVVHKDQUHFRJLGRGH&DUU

SiJ

8Q DQiOLVLV H[WHQVR GHODGXDOLGDGGRFWULQDOGHO,VODP FRQUHVSHFWR DOD\LKDG HVHOGH(ORU]D D\

E9LGWDPELpQSDUDXQDFRQWH[WXDOL]DFLyQGHOWHPDHQHOPiVJHQHUDOGHODVUHODFLRQHVHQW UHODUHOLJLyQ\ HOWHUURULVPR(ORU]D%DOOHVWHU\%RUUHJXHUR

(10)

DFFLRQHV DUPDGDV < WRGR HOOR DFDEy VLHQGR UHIRUPXODGR XQ VLJOR PiV WDUGH SRU HO ILOyVRIR KRODQGpV +XJR *URWLXV HQ HO VLJXLHQWH HQXQFLDGR GH ORV FULWHULRV GH SDUWLFLSDFLyQ HQ XQD JXHUUD MXVWD ©TXH KD\D XQD FDXVD MXVWD TXH KD\D OD GHELGD DXWRULGDGSDUDLQLFLDUODJXHUUDTXHKD\DXQDLQWHQFLyQMXVWDGHOXVR GHODIXHU]DSRU SDUWH GH ORV EDQGRV HQ FRQIOLFWR TXH HO XVR GH OD IXHU]D VHD SURSRUFLRQDGR TXH OD IXHU]DVHDHO~OWLPRUHFXUVRTXHVHOLEUHODJXHUUDFRQODPHWDGHODSD]\TXHKD\DXQD HVSHUDQ]DGHp[LWRUD]RQDEOHª

(VWDV LGHDV WHROyJLFR±SROtWLFDV LQVSLUDGRUDV GH XQ LQFLSLHQWH GHUHFKR LQWHUQDFLRQDO VREUH OD JXHUUD DFDEDURQ SURQWR DUUXPEDGDV SRU HO HPSXMH GH ORV PRGHUQRV(VWDGRV\SRUODSULPDFtDGHOD©UD]yQGH(VWDGRªeVWDQRIXHUHFKD]DGDGH PDQHUDIRUPDOKDVWDHO3DFWRGH.HOORJJ±%ULDQGTXH VXVFULWRHQSRUSDtVHV SURVFULEtD OD JXHUUD FRPR LQVWUXPHQWR SROtWLFR \ FLUFXQVFULEtD VX OHJLWLPLGDG D OD GHIHQVD SURSLD/DV JXHUUDV GH DJUHVLyQ VH GHILQtDQ DVtFRPRXQDFWRLOHJDOSDUDORV (VWDGRV \ HVWH SULQFLSLR DFDEy VLHQGR DSOLFDGR HQ WD QWR TXH UHVSRQVDELOLGDG SHQDO WDPELpQD ORVLQGLYLGXRV SURPRWRUHVGHHVDVJXHUUDVDSDUWLUGHOD&DUWDGHO7ULEXQDO 0LOLWDU ,QWHUQDFLRQDO GH 1XUHPEHUJ $ SDUWLU GH DKt HO LXV DG EHOOXP ODV UD]RQHV OHJtWLPDVSDUDOLEUDUXQDJXHUUDVHVDQFLRQDURQHQOD&D UWDGHODV1DFLRQHV8QLGDVFX\R DUWtFXOR VHJXQGR RUGHQy TXH ©HQ VXV UHODFLRQHV LQWHUQDFLRQDOHV ORV PLHPEURV GH OD RUJDQL]DFLyQ VH DEVWHQGUiQ GH UHFXUULU D OD DPHQD]D R DO XVR GH OD IXHU]D FRQWUD OD LQWHJULGDG WHUULWRULDO R LQGHSHQGHQFLD SROtWLFD GH WRGR ( VWDGRª \ FX\R DUWtFXOR SUHFLVyTXHWDOREOLJDFLyQQRPHQRVFDED©HOGHUHFKRLQPDQHQWHGHOHJtWLPDGHIHQVD« HQ HO FDVR GH TXH XQ PLHPEUR GH ODV 1DFLRQHV 8QLGDV VHD REMHWR GH XQD DJUHVLyQ DUPDGDª)LQDOPHQWHHOSULQFLSLRGHOHJLWLPLGDGGHODJXHUUDGHIHQ VLYDRGHUHVSXHVWDD XQD DJUHVLyQ VH DPSOLy HQ SRU DFXHUGR GH VX $VDPEOHD *HQHUDO DO XVR GH OD IXHU]DDSUREDGRSRUODSURSLD218

6LQHPEDUJRWRGRHVWHHVIXHU]RKDUHVXOWDGRHQFLHUWRPRGREDOGtR(OORSRUTXH GXUDQWH HO ~OWLPR PHGLR VLJOR KDQ VLGR P~OWLSOHV ORV FRQIOLFWRV HQ ORV TXH DOJXQRV (VWDGRVSHVHDODVSURKLELFLRQHVLQWHUQDFLRQDOHVVHKDQHPEDUFDGRHQDJUHVLRQHVPiVR PHQRVQtWLGDV\HQODSUiFWLFDVHKDPDQWHQLGRFRPRVHxDOD7RGRURY©HOGREOHUDVHUR VHJ~QHOFXDOODSROtWLFDLQWHULRU\ODH[WHULRUQRVHULJHQSRUORVPLVPRVSULQFLSLRV« SXHVHQHOLQWHULRUODIXHU]DHVWiVRPHWLGDDOGHUHFKR«PLHQWUDVTXHHQHOH[WHULRUOD IXHU]DULJHODVUHODFLRQHVHQWUHSDtVHV\VyORVHYHOLPLWDGDSRUORVFRQWUDWRVTXHWDOHV SDtVHVHVWDEOHFHQ«SHURTXHSXHGHQURPSHUHQFXDOTXLHUPRPHQWRªSXHVHOGHUHFKR

LQWHUQDFLRQDO FDUHFH GH FDSDFLGDG SDUD LPSRQHUVH PHGLDQWH HO XVR GH OD YLROHQFLD OHJtWLPD < WDPELpQ SRUTXH FRQ OD GLVJUHJDFLyQ GHO RUGHQ PXQGLDO WUDV OD FDtGD GHO 0XURGH%HUOtQKDSUROLIHUDGRXQQXHYRWLSRGHFRQIOLFWRVEpOLFRVHQORVTXHFULVWDOL]DQ ODVWHQGHQFLDVGLVJUHJDGRUDVGHODVUHJODVGHODJXHUUDXQDV©QXHYDVJXHUUDVª IUXWRGH

OD HPHUJHQFLD SROtWLFD GH LGHQWLGDGHV SDUWLFXODULVWDV ²\ SRU HOOR LPSXOVDGDV SRU PRWLYDFLRQHVLGHROyJLFDV²TXHVHKDQEDVDGRHQHOXVRH[WHQVLYRGHOWHUURULVPR ²\

/DIRUPXODFLyQRULJLQDOGH*URWLXVDSDUHFHHQVXREUD 'HLXUHEHOOLDFSDFLV$TXtVHFLWDODVtQWHVLV

HIHFWXDGDSRU1DEXOVLSiJ

9LG5DWQHUSiJ

&IU7RGRURYSiJ 7RPRHOFRQFHSWRGH.DOGRU

(11)

FRQ pO HQ OD QHJDFLyQ UDGLFDO GH OD GLVWLQFLyQ HQWUH FRPEDWLHQWHV \ QR FRPEDWLHQWHV HQWUHORViPELWRVGHORPLOLWDU\ORFLYLO²

©1XHYDVJXHUUDVªJXHUUDVWHUURULVWDV

6LJXLHQGR ODV SURSXHVWDV WHyULFDV \ DQDOtWLFDV HIHFWXDGDV SRU 0DU\ .DOGRU ODV ©QXHYDVJXHUUDVªTXHLUUXPSLHURQFRQIXHU]DDOGLOXLUVHOD*XHUUD)UtD ²VLQTXHHOOR LPSLGDUHFRQRFHUVXVUDVJRVHQFRQIOLFWRVSUHFHGHQWHVFRPRORVGHOFXHUQRGHÈIULFD HQ6RPDOLD\(WLRStD² VRQHOUHVXOWDGRGHXQDSROtWLFDGHDILUPDFLyQGHLGHQWLGDGHV

SRUSDUWHGHJUXSRVpWQLFRVRUHOLJLRVRVTXHVHFRQVLGHUDQDVtPLVPRVFRPRVXMHWRVGH GHUHFKRVSROtWLFRV\TXHUHLYLQGLFDQHOHMHUFLFLRGHOSRGHUSRUPHGLRGHOHPSOHRGHOD YLROHQFLD

(VD SROtWLFD HPHUJH GH OD HURVLyQ GH ORV (VWDGRV QDFLRQDOHV H LQFOXVR GH VX GHVDSDULFLyQ $Vt HQ DOJXQRV SDtVHV HQ ORV TXH HO SURFHVR GH GHVFRORQL]DFLyQ GH ORV DxRVFLQFXHQWD\VHVHQWDGHMyXQYDFtRDGPLQLVWUDWLYR\GHSRGHUHVRV(VWDGRVQDFLHURQ EDMRHOVLJQRGHODGHELOLGDGGHPDQHUDTXHQXQFDKDQOOHJDGRDFRQVROLGDUVH(QRWURV SULQFLSDOPHQWHHQWUHODVYLHMDVUHS~EOLFDVVRYLpWLFDVFRQHOILQGHOVLVWHPDFRPXQLVWDR HQWUH ODV \XJRVODYDV FRQ HO GHVPDQWHODPLHQWR GHO UpJLPHQ GH 7LWR HO (VWDGR SUHH[LVWHQWHDFDEyGHVFRPSRQLpQGRVHDQWHVGHGDUSDVRDQXHYDVHVWUXFWXUDVGHSRGHU ,QFOXVR HVWH IHQyPHQR VH UHJLVWUD WDPELpQ DXQTXH VLQ GXGD GH IRUPD DWHQXDGD HQ DOJXQRV SDtVHV TXH VRQ PLHPEURV GH OD 8QLyQ (XURSHD HQ ORV FXDOHV H[LVWHQ JUXSRV pWQLFR±QDFLRQDOLVWDV TXH UHLYLQGLFDQ SRU PHGLRV DUPDGRV XQ SRGHU WHUULWRULDOPHQWH DFRWDGRFRPRHVHOFDVRGHOQDFLRQDOLVPRYDVFRHQ(VSDxDRGHOQDFLRQDOLVPRLUODQGpV HQHO5HLQR8QLGR/RV(VWDGRVGpELOHVFRPRKDGHVWDFDGR/RUHWWD1DSROHRQLSXHGHQ VHUXQ©YLYHURGHOWHUURULVPRªSXHVVXIUDFDVRGHMDXQYDFtRTXH©ORVJUXSRVDUPDGRV YLHQHQDOOHQDUª'HQWURGHHOORVVXHOHQDSDUHFHUUHGHVGHOLQFXHQFLDOHVTXHUHVXOWDQ

IDYRUHFLGDV SRU OD LUUXSFLyQ GH OD HFRQRPtD SDUDOHOD R LQIRUPDO /DV RUJDQL]DFLRQHV FULPLQDOHV ORV HQWUDPDGRV GH FRUUXSFLyQ HO PHUFDGR QHJUR \ ORV WUiILFRV LOtFLWRV GH GURJDV\DUPDVVRQIHQyPHQRVTXHSUROLIHUDQFXDQGRODDXWRULGDGHVWDWDOVHGHVYDQHFH < GHQWUR GH HVD HFRQRPtD SDUDOHOD DSDUHFHQ KRPEUHV GH QHJRFLRV TXH HPSOHDQ D XQ JUDQ Q~PHUR GH SHUVRQDV RFXSiQGRODV HQ DFWLYLGDGHV GHOLFWLYDV \ HYHQWXDOPHQWH DFDEDQ IRUPDQGR YHUGDGHURV HMpUFLWRV SDUWLFXODUHV GH KRPEUHV DUPDGRV SXGLpQGRVH DILUPDUDVtFRPR©VHxRUHVGHODJXHUUDªTXHHMHUFHQXQOLGHUD]JRLGHQWLWDULR

/RV JUXSRV LGHQWLWDULRV EXVFDQ FRQ IUHFXHQFLD XQD DILUPDFLyQ GH VX SRGHU PHGLDQWHODYLROHQFLDGHVDUUROODQGRXQDDFWLYLGDGEpOLFDPiVRPHQRVLQWHQVDTXHHQ VX H[SUHVLyQ PiV FRPSOHMD OOHJD D DGRSWDU OD IRUPD GH OR TXH 0DU\ .DOGRU OODPD

5HFXpUGHVHTXHGHVSXpVGHVXLQGHSHQGHQFLDHQ6RPDOLDKDVXIULGRFRQWLQXDVVLWXDFLRQHVFRQIOLFWLYDV

LQWHUQDVSULQFLSDOPHQWHWUDVHOHVWDEOHFLPLHQWRGHXQUpJLPHQGHSDUWLGR~QLFR FRQOD&RQVWLWXFLyQGH< HQHOFDVRGH(WLRStDVHSXHGHGHFLURWURWDQWRWUDVODDEROLFLyQGHODPRQDUTXtDHQ$GHPiVDPERV SDtVHV HVWXYLHURQ HQWDEODURQ XQD JXHUUD HQWUH \ \ (WLRStD WXYR TXH KDFHU IUHQWH DO FRQIOLFWR VHFHVLRQLVWD GH(ULWUHDGHVGHKDVWDODLQGHSHQGHQFLDGHHVWHWHUULWRULRHQ3DUDXQDUHYLVLyQGHORV FRQIOLFWRVDUPDGRVHQHOFRQWLQHQWHDIULFDQRYpDVH6FKROO ±/DWRXU 6REUHODFXHVWLyQGHODVLGHQWLGDGHV\VXFRQYHUVLyQHQHOIXQGDPHQWRGHODYLROH QFLDYpDVHHOHQVD\RGH 0DDORXI3RURWUDSDUWHHOULHVJRGHOD©GHULYDLGHQWLWDULDªSDUDODGHPRFUDFLDVHGHVWDFDHQHOHStORJR GH7RGRURY &IU1DSROHRQLSiJV \

(12)

©JXHUUDHQUHGªSXHVHQHOODSDUWLFLSDXQHQWUDPDGRGHDFWRUHVHVWDWDOHV\QRHVWDWDOHV

TXHLQWHUDFW~DQHQWUHVtFRPRHVHOFDVRGHODVEDQGDVSDUDPLOLWDUHVGLULJLGDVSRUOtGHUHV FDULVPiWLFRVORVVHxRUHVGHODJXHUUDDVHQWDGRVVREUHXQWHUULWRULROLPLWDGRODVFpOXODV WHUURULVWDV ORV YROXQWDULRV LQWHUQDFLRQDOHV IDQDWL]DGRV ODV RUJDQL]DFLRQHV FULPLQDOHV GHGLFDGDV D WUiILFRV LOtFLWRV ORV HMpUFLWRV UHJXODUHV \ ORV JUXSRV GH PHUFHQDULRV (VD JXHUUDVHGHVHQYXHOYHIXHUDGHOFDQRQHVWDEOHFLGRSDUDODJXHUUDPRGHUQDVXUDt]HVWDQ HVHQFLDOPHQWHLGHROyJLFDTXH QRLQYRFDXQLQWHUpVGH(VWDGRQRVHVRPHWHDODVUHJODV TXH RUGHQDQ ODV FRQYHQFLRQHV LQWHUQDFLRQDOHV \ HO REMHWLYR GH VXV DWDTXHV HV OD SREODFLyQFLYLO

/DVSULQFLSDOHVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVGHHVWDQXHYDPRGDOLGDGEpOLFDODVKDVLQWHWL]DGR .DOGRUVHxDODQGRORVLJXLHQWH

x 6RQ JXHUUDV TXH UH~QHQ MXQWR D ORV DFWRUHV QDFLRQDOHV LQYROXFUDGRV D SDUWLFLSDQWHV IRUiQHRV TXH VH H[WLHQGHQ GHVGH ORV PHUFHQDULRV YROXQWDULRV H[WUDQMHURV R VLPSDWL]DQWHV GH OD GLiVSRUD TXH SDUWLFLSDQ FRPR FRPEDWLHQWHV KDVWDODVRUJDQL]DFLRQHVKXPDQLWDULDVGHD\XGDRODV21*¶VLQWHUQDFLRQDOHV x 6X HVFHQDULR WHUULWRULDO WLHQH XQD GHOLPLWDFLyQ GLIXVD \ FRQ IUHFXHQFLD FDPELDQWH HQ FXDQWR D VXV OtQHDV GH GHPDUFDFLyQ (Q PXFKDV RFDVLRQHV VRQ JXHUUDV WUDQVIURQWHUL]DV TXH LQYROXFUDQ D SHUVRQDV TXH HPLJUDURQ GHO SDtV LPSOLFDGR

x (VWDIOXLGH]WHUULWRULDOHVWiFRQGLFLRQDGDHQEXHQDPHGLGDSRUHOKHFKR GH TXH HO FRQIOLFWR VH GHVHQYXHOYH HQ ]RQDV HQ ODV TXH VH SURGXFH XQD GHVFRPSRVLFLyQ GHO SRGHU HVWDWDO ]RQDV FRQ (VWDGRV IUiJLOHV R IDOOLGR V UHFRQRFLGRV LQWHUQDFLRQDOPHQWH SHUR LQFDSDFHV GH FRQWURODU HO WHUULWRULR DO KDEHUVHVRFDYDGRHQHOORVHOPRQRSROLRHQHOXVRGHODYLROHQFLDOHJtWLPD

x 6H WUDWD DGHPiV GH ©JXHUUDV DVLPpWULFDVªSXHV GHELGR D TXH HQ HOODV LQWHUYLHQHQDFWRUHVFRQPX\GLIHUHQWHFDSDFLGDG\SRGHU ²FRPRSXHGHQVHUODV EDQGDVWHUURULVWDV\ORVHMpUFLWRVUHJXODUHV²QRH[LVWHHTXLSDUDFLyQRHTXLOLEULR GHIXHU]DVHQWUHHOORV

x (VDDVLPHWUtDVHUHODFLRQDFRQHOKHFKRGHTXHVHWUDWDSRUORJHQHUDOGH ©JXHUUDV GH EDMD LQWHQVLGDGª GH JXHUUDV GH GHVJDVWH HQ ODV TXH VH EXVFD OD

SURORQJDFLyQGHOFRQIOLFWRHOPD\RUWLHPSRSRVLEOHDXQTXHSDUDHOORVLJXLHQGR ODWiFWLFDSURSXJQDGDSRU0DR7VH±WXQJVHSURGX]FDQUHWLUDGDVHVWUDWpJLFDV

3RU WDQWR HQ FXDQWR D VX FRQFHSFLyQ OD JXHUUD WHUURULVWD VH VLW~D HQ HO SROR RSXHVWRDOSURSXJQDGRSRUODFRQFHSFLyQPRGHUQDTXHHQFDUQD&ODXVHZLW]GH

9LG.DOGRU\SDUDXQDVtQWHVLV.DOGRU DVtFRPR0QNOHUSiJVD 6HJ~QGHVWDFD0QNOHUSiJ

&IU0QNOHUSiJ

6HDOXGHDTXtDODLGHDSURSXJQDGDSRU0DRHQ 6REUHODJXHUUDSURORQJDGDREUDHVFULWDHQEDMROD

FLUFXQVWDQFLDGHODLQYDVLyQMDSRQHV DGH&KLQDVHJ~QODFXDO©HOREMHWLYRGHODJXHUUDQRHVRWURTXHFRQVHUYDU ODV IXHU]DV SURSLDV \ GHVWUXLU ODV HQHPLJDVª 9LG SDUD PiV GHWDOOHV 0QNOHU /D LQIOXHQFLD GHO PDRtVPRVREUHODVRUJDQL]DFLRQHVWHUURULVWDVGHL]TXLHUGDKDVLGRGHVWDFDGD SRU/DTXHXUFDStWXOR

(13)

DFXHUGRFRQHOFXDOODFRQGXFFLyQGHODJXHUUDGHEHFRQIOXLUKDFLDXQDEDWDOOD SULQFLSDO R GHFLVLYD HQ OD TXH VH SURGX]FD ©OD DQLTXLODFLyQ GH OD IXHU]D HQHPLJDª < GH HVWD PDQHUD HO FRQIOLFWR VH GHVHQYXHOYH FRQ LQWHQVLGDG

YDULDEOH WDQWR SDUD RFDVLRQDU XQRV PD\RUHV FRVWHV DO RSRQHQWH ²SXHV HO VRVWHQLPLHQWRGHODVIXHU]DVUHJXODUHV\ORVFXHUSRVGHVHJXULGDGUHTXLHUHXQRV UHFXUVRVVXSHULRUHVDORV TXHHPSOHDQODVRUJDQL]DFLRQHVWHUURULVWDV\ORVJUXSRV SDUDPLOLWDUHV² FRPR SDUD DSURYHFKDU HO FRPSRQHQWH SXEOLFLWDULR GHO

WHUURULVPRFRQILQHVGHSURSDJDQGD

x 'DGDODYDULHGDGGHDFWRUHVTXHVHUH~QHQHQODVUHGHVGHFRPEDWLHQWHV MXHJD XQ SDSHO HVHQFLDO HO GLVFXUVR TXH ORV DJOXWLQD /D JXHUUD WLHQH SDUD VXV SURPRWRUHVXQDPRWLYDFLyQH[FOXVLYDPHQWHLGHROyJLFDHVWDEOHFLGDDSDUWLUGHOD GHIHQVDGHXQDLGHQWLGDGpWQLFDRUHOLJLRVD

x (O REMHWLYR GH OD JXHUUD HV OD PRYLOL]DFLyQ SROtWLFD /D YLROHQFLD VH RULHQWD D OD H[SDQVLyQ GH OD SURSLD UHG H[WUHPLVWD PHGLDQWH OD DGKHVLyQ GH OD SREODFLyQ LQYROXFUDGD (Q FRQFRUGDQFLD FRQ WDO REMHWLYR OD WiFWLFD EiVLFD GH FRPEDWH XWLOL]DGD HV HO WHUURULVPR 3RU HOOR HVD DGKHVLyQ QR QDFH GHO FRQYHQFLPLHQWRVLQRGHOPLHGR TXHVHH[WLHQGHHQWUHWRGRVORVKDELWDQWHVFXDQGR VH HOLPLQDQ ORV DGYHUVDULRV SROtWLFRV TXH SXHGHQ REVWDFXOL]DU HO FRQWURO GH OD VRFLHGDG (Q GHILQLWLYD VH UHFXUUH ©D OD YLROHQFLD« SDUD KDFHU LPSRVLEOH OD SROtWLFD SDFtILFD \« VH SRQHQ FRPR REMHWLYRV D ORV FLYLOHV GHVDUPDGRV« SDUDFDVWLJDUORVSRUVXDILOLDFLyQRSRUVXRULJHQpWQLFRª'HDKtTXHHQHVWDV

JXHUUDVVHYLROHQVLVWHPiWLFDPHQWHORVGHUHFKRVKXPDQRVHQHVSHFLDOSRUPHGLR GHOGHVDUUROORGHDFFLRQHVGHOLPSLH]DpWQLFD\GHJHQRFLGLRHQWUHOD SREODFLyQ FLYLO 1R VRUSUHQGH HQWRQFHV TXH OD JUDQ PD\RUtD GH ODV EDMDV HQ HVWRV FRQIOLFWRVVHSURGX]FDQHQWUHORVQRFRPEDWLHQWHV

x < ILQDOPHQWH OD JXHUUD VL HV H[LWRVD SDUD TXLHQHV OD SURPXHYHQ FRQGXFHDODFRQVWUXFFLyQGHQXHYDVHQWLGDGHVHVWDWDO HVTXHHQPXFKRVFDVRV QR KDQ SDVDGR GH VHU XQ ©(VWDGR HPEULyQª VHJ~Q OD GHQRPLQDFLyQ GH 1DSROHRQL(VGHFLUXQ(VWDGRTXHFXHQWDFRQ©HOPRQRSROLRGHORVPHGLRVGH

YLROHQFLDHOWHUULWRULRXQVLVWHPDGHLPSXHVWRV\XQDEXURFUDFLDS~EOLFDªSHUR TXH FDUHFH GH ©VREHUDQtD FRQVWLWXFLyQ LPSHULR GH OD OH\« OHJLWLPLGDG GH OD DXWRULGDG \ FLXGDGDQtDª\ TXH HQ FRQVHFXHQFLD JUDYLWD HQ WRUQR D OD JXHUUD SXHVHV©XQDHVWUXFWXUDFRQODTXHPDQWHQHUYLYDODOXFKDª

/DV©QXHYDVJXHUUDVªVRQHQVtQWHVLVJXHUUDVWHUURULVWDVTXHFRQLQGHSHQGHQFLD GH OD SURIXQGLGDG TXH KD\DQDOFDQ]DGR SXHGHQVHUFDWDORJDGDVGHQWUR GH XQD PLVPD

&IU&ODXVHZLW]SiJ6REUHODEDWDOODSULQFLSDOYLGORVFDStWXORVDGHOOLEURFXDUWRGHHVWD REUD 9LG0QNOHUSiJ 9LG0QNOHUSiJ6REUHHVWHSXQWRYLGWDPELpQODLQW HUHVDQWHUHIOH[LyQGH,JQDWLHII &IU,JQDWLHIISiJ 9LG1DSROHRQLFDStWXOR &IU1DSROHRQLSiJ

(14)

HQWLGDG FRQFHSWXDO (VWDV JXHUUDV FRPR VH YHUi D FRQWLQXDFLyQ KDQ GDGR OXJDU D XQ VLQJXODUPRGHORGHHFRQRPtDEpOLFDFX\RVHOHPHQW RVVXVWDQWLYRVGHEHQVHUSXHVWRVGH UHOLHYHSDUDTXHSXHGDGLVSRQHUVHGHODVQRFLRQHVUHTXHULGDVDODERUGDUHODQiOLVLVGHODV FRQVHFXHQFLDVHFRQyPLFDVGHOWHUURULVPR

/DHFRQRPtDGHSUHGDGRUDGHJXHUUD

(O PRGHOR GH HFRQRPtD GHSUHGDGRUD GH JXHUUD VXE YLHUWH ORV SULQFLSLRV GH OD HFRQRPtDGHPRYLOL]DFLyQDORVTXHDQWHULRUPHQWHVHKDKHFKRUHIHUHQFLDGHODPLVPD PDQHUDTXHODJXHUUDWHUURULVWDVXEYLHUWHODVFRQYHQFLRQHVGHODJXHUUDPRGHUQD$Vt PLHQWUDVTXHHQpVWDODHFRQRPtDVHRUJDQL]DSDUDGHVSOHJ DUGHQWURGHOWHUULWRULRWRGD ODSRWHQFLDOLGDGGHODQDFLyQHQRUGHQDODREWHQFLyQGHODUPDPHQWR\SHUWUHFKRVTXH UHTXLHUHQ ORVHMpUFLWRV HQ OXFKD ²OR TXH LPSOLFD XQD UHRULHQWDFLyQ GH ODVDFWLYLGDGHV SURGXFWRUDV GH ELHQHV \ VHUYLFLRV KDFLD HVD ILQDOLGDG ² HQ OD JXHUUD WHUURULVWD OD HFRQRPtD VH FRQILJXUD FRPR XQ SURFHGLPLHQWR GH H[SROLR R UDSLxD GH ORV UHFXUVRV H[LVWHQWHVHQHOWHUULWRULREDMRFRQWUROGHODVRUJDQL]DFLRQHVTXHODVRVWLHQHQ ²ORTXH VXSRQHODGHVWUXFFLyQGHODEDVHSURGXFWLYDQDFLRQDO ²

<D VH KD VHxDODGR TXH HO REMHWLYR GH OD JXHUUD WHUURULVWD HV OD PRYLOL]DFLyQ SROtWLFD GH PDQHUD TXH HO FRQWURO GHO WHUULWRULR VH ORJUD D WUDYpV GHO PLHGR \ QR SRU PHGLR GH OD DGKHVLyQ LGHROyJLFD GH OD PD\RU SDUWH GH OD SREODFLyQ (OOR LQFOX\H HO GHVSOD]DPLHQWR R H[SXOVLyQ GH TXLHQHV VH RSRQHQD ODVRUJDQL]DFLRQHVWHUURULVWDVDVt FRPRVXHOLPLQDFLyQSRUPHGLRGHODVHVLQDWRSXGLpQGRVHOOHJDUDH[WHQVDVRSHUDFLRQHV GH OLPSLH]D pWQLFD $VLPLVPR SDUD IDFLOLWDU OD VXSUHVLyQ GH OD RSRVLFLyQ QR H[LVWH LQFRQYHQLHQWHHQSURSLFLDUODGHVWUXFFLyQGHODVLQIUDHVWUXFWXUDVRGHOFDSLWDOSURGXFWLYR SULYDGR QL HQ UHDOL]DU DWDTXHV VLVWHPiWLFRV D REMHWLYRV FLYLOHVSDUD FUHDU XQ FOLPD GH LQVHJXULGDGQLHQHPSOHDUWpFQLFDVGHJXHUUDSVLFROyJLFDFRQWUDODSREODFLyQUHVLVWHQW H QL HQ GHVHQFDGHQDU KDPEUXQDV QL HQ HVWLPXODU ODV YLRODFLRQHV \ DEXVRV VH[XDOHV VLVWHPiWLFRV 6LQ HPEDUJR HOOR QR REVWD SDUD TXH HVDV RUJDQL]DFLRQHV FXOWLYHQ D VX SREODFLyQGHUHIHUHQFLD ²HVGHFLUDOJUXSR©HQSUHWHQGLGREHQHILFLRGHOFXDOGHFODUDQ OOHYDUDFDERFDPSDxDVGHYLROHQFLDª \GHOTXHREWLHQHQDSR\RSROtWLFR\PLOLWDQWHV

FRQ ORV TXH UHQRYDU VX FDSLWDO KXPDQR² PHGLDQWH OD FUHDFLyQ GH DVRFLDFLRQHV \ HQWLGDGHVGHDSR\RVRFLDO\HFRQyPLFRTXHFDQDOL]DQUHFXUVRVFRQORVTXHDVLVWLUDODV IDPLOLDV GH ORV DFWLYLVWDV GHVDUUROODU GHWHUPLQDGRV VHUYLFLRV VRFLDOHV R SURSRUFLRQDU HPSOHRVVLHPSUHVXMHWRWRGRHOORDODLQHVWDELOLGDGTXHVHGHULYDGHODLUUHJXODULGDG

TXHFDUDFWHUL]DDODREWHQFLyQGHLQJUHVRV

(QHVWDVFRQGLFLRQHVHOWHUULWRULRGHMDGH VHUXQDVyOLGDEDVHVREUHODTXHSXHGD DVHQWDUVH XQ HVIXHU]R HFRQyPLFR RULHQWDGR KDFLD OD JXHUUD 7RGR OR FRQWUDULR FRQ OD GHVWUXFFLyQ GHO FDSLWDO \ ODVLQIUDHVWUXFWXUDV DVt FRPR FRQ OD LQVHJXULGDGD OD TXH VH VRPHWH D OD SREODFLyQ SRU PHGLR GHO WHUURULV PR OR TXH VH ORJUD HV UHEDMDU H LQFOXVR SDUDOL]DU OD DFWLYLGDG HFRQyPLFD \ SRU WDQWR OD SRVLELOLGDG GH TXH OD SURGXFFLyQ VH RUJDQLFHSDUDVRVWHQHUODJXHUUD<HQFRQVHFXHQFLDKDQGHKDELOLWDUVHRWUDVIRUPDVGH REWHQHUORVUHFXUVRVPDWHULDOHV\ILQDQFLHURVTXHVHQHFHVLWDQSDUDVRVWHQHUHOHVIXHU]R EpOLFR OR TXH GD OXJDU D XQD HFRQRPtD GHSUHGDGRUD GH JXHUUD FX\RV SULQFLSDOHV

&IU5HLQDUHVSiJ

(15)

HOHPHQWRV FRQVWLWXWLYRV VRQ ORV TXH VH UHIOHMDQ HQ HO JUiILFR \ VH HQXPHUDQ D FRQWLQXDFLyQ

x (Q SULPHU OXJDU SRU PHGLR GHO VDTXHR \ OD H[WRUVLyQ VH WUDQVILHUHQ UHFXUVRV GHVGH OD SREODFLyQ FLYLO KDFLD ODVRUJDQL]DFLRQHVFRPEDWLHQWHV $ ORV ULFRVVHOHVH[WRUVLRQDEDMRDPHQD]DVRVHOHVPDWDSDUDUREDUOHVVHWUDQVILHUHQ SURSLHGDGHVSULYDGDVXQDYH]UHDOL]DGDVODVRSHUDFLRQHVGH OLPSLH]DpWQLFDVH SURSRUFLRQD ©SURWHFFLyQª D SHUVRQDV \ RUJDQL]DFLRQHV \ VH HVWDEOHFHQ ©LPSXHVWRVGHJXHUUDªSDUDDXWRUL]DUODD\XGD KXPDQLWDULD$VLPLVPRDOJXQDV RUJDQL]DFLRQHVWHUURULVWDVFXHQWDQFRQUHGHVGHGHOLQFXHQWHVHVSHFLDOL]DGRVHQHO URERHOIUDXGHFRQWDUMHWDVGHFUpGLWRRORVDWUDFRV

x (Q VHJXQGR WpUPLQR VH RUJDQL]D WDPELpQ OD WUDQVIHUHQFLD GH UHFXUVRV KDFLDHVDVRUJDQL]DFLRQHVDWUDYpVGHOPHUFDGRQHJUR/RVDFWRUHVLPSOLFDGRVHQ ODDFWLYLGDGEpOLFD\ODSREODFLyQFLYLOHVWDEOHFHQWUDQVD FFLRQHVSRUPHGLRGHHVH PHUFDGR GHVGH SRVLFLRQHV GHVLJXDOHV GH PDQHUD TXH HVWD ~OWLPD UHVXOWD SHUMXGLFDGD $Vt ODV DFFLRQHV GH OD JXHUUD WHUURULVWD SXHGHQ FRQGXFLU D VLWXDFLRQHV GH GHVDEDVWHFLPLHQWR TXH VRQ VXSOLGDV SRU PHGLR GHO DFFHVR D XQ PHUFDGR QHJUR FRQWURODGR SRU ODV IXHU]DV FRPEDWLHQWHV HQ HO TXH VH RSHUD D SUHFLRVDQRUPDOPHQWHHOHYDGRVRVHUHDOL]DQWUXHTXHVGHELHQHVGXUDGHURVFRPR YHKtFXORV R HOHFWURGRPpVWLFRV D FDPELR GH DUWtFXORV GH SULPHUD QHFHVLGDG FRPRDOLPHQWRV7RGRHOORHQGHWULPHQWRGHODSREODFLyQFLYLO

x (Q WHUFHU OXJDU ODV RUJDQL]DFLRQHV WHUURULVWDV SDUWLFLSDQ GLUHFWD R LQGLUHFWDPHQWHHQODUHDOL]DFLyQGHWUiILFRVLOtFLWRV6RQIUHFXHQWHVORVFDVRVHQ ORV TXH HVWDV RUJDQL]DFLRQHV VH LPSOLFDQ HQ HO FRPHUFLR GH HVWXSHIDFLHQWHV R H[WUDHQGHpVWHXQDH[DFFLyQHQFRQFHSWRGHSDJRSRUORVVHUYLFLRVGHSURWHFFLyQ TXHSURSRUFLRQDQDORVQDUFRWUDILFDQWHV,JXDORFXUUHFRQHOFRQWUDEDQGRGH

ELHQHVGHFRQVXPRRORVWUiILFRVGHDUPDPHQWRGLDPDQWHV RPDWHULDVSULPDV

VXMHWDVDHPEDUJR$HOORGHEHDxDGLUVHODFRQVWLWXFLyQGHHPSUHVDVTXHUHDOL]DQ QHJRFLRV DSDUHQWHPHQWH OHJDOHV SHUR TXH VH LPSOLFDQ HQ RSHUDFLRQHV GH EODQTXHR GH ORV FDSLWDOHV REWHQLGRV SRU PHGLRV GHOLFWLYRV R GH HQWLGDGHV VLQ ILQHVGHOXFURGHVWLQDGDVDUHFDXGDUDSRUWDFLRQHVYROXQWDULDVGHVLPSDWL]DQWHVR DREWHQHUD\XGDVJXEHUQDPHQWDOHVWDQWRORFDOHVFRPRLQWHUQDFLRQDOHV

x < ILQDOPHQWH H[LVWH XQ LPSRUWDQWH IOXMR GH WUDQVIHUHQFLDV D ODV RUJDQL]DFLRQHVDUPDGDVGHVGHHOH[WHULRUGHPDQHUDTXHVHFRPSOHPHQWDQORV UHFXUVRV REWHQLGRV D SDUWLU GH ODV DFWLYLGDGHV GHSUHGDGRUDV LQWHUQDV DQWHV DOXGLGDV $Vt ODV UHPHVDV GH ORV WUDEDMDGRUHV HPLJUDGRV DO H[WUDQMHUR FRPSOHPHQWDQORVUHFXUVRVIDPLOLDUHVGHORVTXHGLVSRQHODSREODFLyQFLYLO\TXH

9LG.DOGRUSiJVD\0QNOHUSiJVD

9LG XQ H[DPHQ HVSHFLDOPHQWH FHQWUDGR HQ ODV RUJDQL]DFLRQHV WHUURULVWDV LVOiPLFDV 1DSROHRQL

FDStWXORV\(QFXDQWRDOFDVRGHOWHUURULVPRFRORPEL DQRYLG9LOODPDUtQ,JXDOPHQWHWLHQHLQWHUpV HOWUDEDMRGH7KDPP

6REUH HO PHUFDGR GH GLDPDQWHV FRQ REVHUYDFLRQHV LQWHUHVDQWH VREUH VX UHODFLyQ FRQ OD ILQDQFLDFLyQ GH

RUJDQL]DFLRQHVWHUURULVWDVYLG&RFNEXUQ

(16)

VH FDQDOL]DQ D ORV DFWRUHV FRPEDWLHQWHV D WUDYpV GH OD H[WRUVLyQ \ HO PHUFDGR QHJUR(VRVPLVPRVWUDEDMDGRUHVVXHOHQFRQWULEXLUDODUHFDXGDFLyQHQVXVSDtVHV GH DFRJLGD GH IRQGRV GHVWLQDGRV DO VRVWHQLPLHQWR GH ORVJUXSRV DUPDGRV FX\R RULJHQ HVWi HQ VX PLVPD HWQLD R FRQIHVLyQ UHOLJLRVD $GHPiV DXQTXH OD ILQDQFLDFLyQGHOWHUURULVPRSRUSDUWHGHORVJRELHUQRVH[WUDQMHURVGHFD\yFRQHO IDQDOGHOD*XHUUD)UtDQRHVLQIUHFXHQWHTXHVXEVLVWDQD\XGDVDGHWHUPLQDGRV

JUXSRV FRQWHQGLHQWHV R D ORV JRELHUQRV GH ORV SDtVHV HQ ORV TXH VH VLW~D HO HVFHQDULRGHODJXHUUDWHUURULVWD<VHDQRWDQWDPELpQORVUHFXUVRVTXHFDQDOL]DQ ODV21*¶VLQWHUQDFLRQDOHVEDMRODIRUPDGHD\XGDKXPDQLWDULDSDUWHGHODFXDO VHGHVYtDPX\IUHFXHQWHPHQWHKDFLDODVRUJDQL]DFLRQHVFRPEDWLHQWHVSRUPHGLR GHOURERHOSDJR GHLPSXHVWRVLUUHJXODUHVRODH[WRUVLyQ *UiILFR/DHFRQRPtDGHSUHGDGRUDGHJXHUUDDFWRUHVDFWLYLGDGHV\IOXMRV $UPDV 'LQHUR ,PSXHVWRVLUUHJXODUHV %HQHILFLRV UHSDWULDGRV 6DTXHR ([WRUVLyQ 6DTXHR $UPDV 'LQHUR )XHQWH$GDSWDGRGH.DOGRU *RELHUQRVH[WUDQMHURV (VWDGRVSDWURFLQDGRUHV *UDQGHVSRWHQFLDV *RELHUQRVQDFLRQDOHV (MpUFLWRUHJXODU 7UiILFRVLOtFLWRV'URJDV 3HWUyOHR'LDPDQWHVHWF ([SDWULDGRV\WUDEDMDGRUHV HPLJUDQWHV *UXSRVSDUDPLOLWDUHV 21*\2UJDQL]DFLRQHV JXEHUQDPHQWDOHV LQWHUQDFLRQDOHV 3REODFLyQFLYLO 8QLGDGHVGHDXWRGHIHQVD 3DJRVSRU SURWHFFLyQ (QYtRVGH SDUWLFXODUHV 0HUFDGRQHJUR (QUHVXPHQODHFRQRPtDGHODJXHUUDWHUURULVWDQRVHRUJDQL]DSDUDIDYRUHFHUOD JHQHUDFLyQ LQWHUQD GH ORV UHFXUVRV ILQDQFLHURV \ PDW HULDOHV QHFHVDULRV SDUD HO VRVWHQLPLHQWR GHO HVIXHU]R EpOLFR VLQR TXH SURSLFLD OD REWHQFLyQ GH HVRV UHFXUVRV D SDUWLUGHODGHVWUXFFLyQGHODEDVHHFRQyPLFDLQWHUQDSRUPHGLRGHVXGHSUHGDFLyQ(VWH SURFHVR GHSUHGDGRU SXHGH VHU PiV R PHQRV LQWHQVR \ SXHG H DOFDQ]DU XQD PD\RU R PHQRUH[WHQVLyQWHUULWRULDOGHSHQGLHQGRGHODSURIXQGLGDGTXHDOFDQFHQHOFRQIOLFWRHQ HOTXHWLHQHOXJDU

(17)

/DVFRQVHFXHQFLDVHFRQyPLFDV\VRFLDOHVGHODJXHUUDWHUURULVWD /RVHIHFWRVHFRQyPLFRV\VRFLDOHVGHODVJXHUUDVWHUURU LVWDVVRQSRUORJHQHUDO LQWHQVRV\SHUVLVWHQWHVFXDQGRORVFRQIOLFWRVDOFDQ]DQXQDFLHUWDSURIXQGLGDGORTXHQR H[FOX\HODSRVLELOLGDGGHTXHVHFRQFUHWHQHQPHUDVSHUWXUEDFLRQHVWUDQVLWRULDVFXDQGR VyORVHSURGXFHQDWHQWDGRVDLVODGRVVLQFRQWLQXLGDGW HPSRUDO(VRVHIHFWRVVHGHULYDQ SULPDULDPHQWH GH ODV GHVWUXFFLRQHV D ODV TXH GD OXJDU OD JXHUUD DXQTXH VH H[WLHQGHQ PXFKRPiVDOOiGHOYDORUGHpVWDVGHELGRDTXHHOWHUURULVPRUHEDMDODVH[SHFWDWLYDVGH ORV HPSUHVDULRV \ FRQVXPLGRUHV LQGXFLHQGR XQ FLFOR GHSUHVLYR HQ OD HFRQRPtD FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH

'HVGH OD SHUVSHFWLYD HFRQyPLFD OD SULQFLSDO FRQVHFXHQFLD GH ORV FRQIOLFWRV DUPDGRVHVODUHGXFFLyQGHOSRWHQFLDOGHFUHFLPLHQWR\FRQpOODFDtGDGHOQLYHOGHYLGD GHODSREODFLyQDIHFWDGD/RV HVWXGLRVTXHVH KDQUHDOL]DGRVREUHGHWHUPLQDGRVFDVRV FRQFUHWRV RORVTXHKDQWHQLGRHQFXHQWDFRQMXQWDPHQWHXQDPXOWLSOLFLGDGGHJXHUUDV

WHUURULVWDV VRQ XQiQLPHV DO VHxDODU TXH pVWDV VRFDYDQ OD DFWLYLGDG SURGXFWLYD \

FRQGXFHQ D XQD FDtGD HQ ODV WDVDV GH LQFUHPHQWR G HO 3,% GH ORV SDtVHV LPSOLFDGRV FXDQGRQRDODUHGXFFLyQGHHVWDYDULDEOHPDFURHFRQyPLFD(OFLFORHFRQyPLFRWtSLFR GHOTXHVHKDFHXQDUHSUHVHQWDFLyQHQHOJUiILFRVHUHIOHMDHQXQDGLVPLQXFLyQGHOD SURGXFFLyQ \D HQ HO SHUtRGR DQWHULRU DO FRQIOLFWR DUPDGR SXHV ODVWHQVLRQHVSROtWLFDV WLHQHQXQLPSDFWRQHJDWLYRVREUHHOODHVDUHFHVLyQVHDFHQW~DQRWDEOHPHQWHGXUDQWHHO FRQIOLFWR GH IRUPD TXH SXHGH DOFDQ]DU XQD JUDQ LQWHQVLGDG \ XQD YH] ILQDOL]DGD OD JXHUUDSHUVLVWHGXUDQWHXQFLHUWRWLHPSRSDUD GDUSDVRGHVSXpVDXQDUHFXSHUDFLyQHQOD VHQGDGHOFUHFLPLHQWRGHO3,%(OVDOGRILQDOGHWRGRHOORQRHVVLQRXQGHWHULRURGHO QLYHOGHYLGDGHDFXHUGRFRQODDSUR[LPDFLyQTXHDHVWHFRQFHSWRSURSRUFLRQDODFLIUD GHO3,%SRUKDELWDQWH

(VWH UHVXOWDGR JOREDO VH JHVWD D SDUWLU GH OD QHJDWLYD LQFLGHQFLD TXH OD LQHVWDELOLGDGYLQFXODGDDOWHUURULVPRWLHQHVREUHODVH[SHFWDWLYDVGHORVFRQVXPLGRUHV\ ORV LQYHUVRUHV $TXHOORV HQ XQ PDUFR GH LQFHUWLGXPEUH FUHFLHQWH UHGXFHQ VX JDVWR \ DSOD]DQVXVDGTXLVLFLRQHV GHELHQHVGXUDGHURVSRUPRWLYRVGHSUHFDXFLyQ<pVWRVDO UHEDMDUVH ODV SUHYLVLRQHV GH GHPDQGD KDFHQ FDHU VXV SURJUDPDV GH LQYHUVLyQ WUDQVILHUHQDOH[WHULRUVXVUHFXUVRV\HYHQWXDOPHQWHDEDQGRQDQHOPHUFDGR$HOORVH DxDGHQ WDPELpQ ORV HIHFWRV QHJDWLYRV TXH VH GHULYDQ GH ODV GHVWUXFFLRQHV TXH H[SHULPHQWD HO FDSLWDO ItVLFR ²ELHQ VH WUDWH GH LQIUDHVWUXFWXUDV ELHQ GH LQVWDODFLRQHV SURGXFWLYDV² \ GH OD PHQRUDIOXHQFLD GH LQYHUVLRQHVH[WUDQMHUDV < HVWRV IHQyPHQRV LQGXFHQ XQ GHVFHQVR GH OD GHPDQGD TXH DFD ED UHIOHMiQGRVH HQ HO GHVSORPH GHO FUHFLPLHQWR HFRQyPLFR /RV HIHFWRV DFXPXODGRV D OR ODUJR GH XQ FRQIOLFWR DUPDGR WtSLFRSXHGHQOOHJDUDVXSRQHUXQDVSpUGLGDVGHKDVWDHOSRUHQHO3,%DQXDO

9pDQVH VREUH *XLQHD 9HODUGH VREUH HO 3DtV 9DVFR $EDGLH \ *DUGHD]iEDO \ 0\UR HW DO

\VREUH(VWDGRV8QLGRV FRQRFDVLyQGHO ±686±*$2D/HQDLQHWDO\2&'(

9LG 6WHZDUW +XDQJ \ :DQJ GRQGH VH DQDOL]DQ FDVRV GH FRQIOLFWRV *XSWD HW DO D \

ETXHVHEDVDQHQHOHVWXGLRGHJXHUUDVWHUURULVWDVHQSDtVHV\S DUDXQSDQRUDPD&ROOLHUHWDO

9LG&ROOLHUHWDOSiJ(QHOFDStWXORGHHVWHWUDEDMRVHH[SOLFDQFRQGHWDOOHORVPHFDQLVPRV

(18)

*UiILFR&RQVHFXHQFLDVGHODJXHUUDWHUURULVWDHQHOFUHFLPLHQWR\HOELHQHVWDU &UHFLPLHQWRUHDOGHO3,%HQSDtVHVFRQFRQIOLFWRVDUPDGRV\WHUURULVPR7DVDV DQXDOHVHQSRUFHQWDMH 3,%SRUKDELWDQWHHQSDtVHVVHOHFFLRQDGRVHQORVTXHVHKDQSURGXFLGR FRQIOLFWRVDUPDGRV\WHUURULVPR

)XHQWHV*XSWDHWDO D\&ROOLHUHWDO

$17(6 '85$17((/ &21)/,&72 '(638e6 1RWD3URPHGLRFRUUHVSRQGLHQWHDXQDPXHVWUDGHSDtVHV

3HU~ (O6DOYDGRU 1LFDUDJXD $QJROD 5'GHO

&RQJR %XUXQGL 86'yODUHV

$QWHVGHOFRQIOLFWR 'HVSXpVGHOFRQIOLFWR

3RU RWUD SDUWH VH FRQVWDWD WDPELpQ TXH ODV JXHUUDV WHUURULVWDV WUDVWRFDQ VHULDPHQWHHOIXQFLRQDPLHQWRGHOVHFWRUS~EOLFRHQORV(VWDGRDIHFWDGRV3RUXQDSDUWH ORVLQJUHVRVHVWDWDOHVDOGHWHULRUDUVHODVUHQWDVH[SHULPHQW DQXQDDSUHFLDEOHUHGXFFLyQ ²TXHHQORVFDVRVDQDOL]DGRVSRU*XSWDHWDODVHFRQFUHWDHQXQDFDtGDGHVGH HODOSRUGHO3,%HQWUHHOSHUtRGRDQWHULRUDOFRQIOLFWR\HOSHUtRGRHQHOTXH pVWHWLHQHOXJDU²SRURWUDHOJDVWRS~EOLFRVHLQFUHPHQWDGHIRUPDQRWDEOH²ORTXH HQHVRVPLVPRVFDVRVVHUHIOHMDHQXQDXPHQWRGHVGHHOKDVWDHOSRUGHO 3,%² \ HQ WHUFHU OXJDU HVH JDVWR VH UHRULHQWD KDFLD ODV IXHU]DV DUPDGDV GHMDQGR GHVDWHQGLGDV ODV IXQFLRQHV VRFLDOHV HVSHFLDOPHQ WH OD VDQLGDG \ OD HGXFDFLyQ /DV FRQVHFXHQFLDV VRQ IiFLOHV GH YHU HO GpILFLW S~EOLFR VH LQFUHPHQWD GH PDQHUD H[WUDRUGLQDULD KDVWD OtPLWHV GLItFLOPHQWH VRVWHQLEOHV ²GH IRUPD TXH HQ ORV FDVRV DOXGLGRVDYDQ]DGHVGHXQQLYHOGHOSRUGHO3,%KDVWDRWU RGHOSRU²OR

(19)

FXDOUHVWDFDSDFLGDGDODHFRQRPtDSDUDVXFUHFLPLHQWR\DGHPiVHOLQFUHPHQWRGHO JDVWR PLOLWDU \ OD FDtGD GHOJDVWR HGXFDWLYR WLHQHQWDPELpQHIHFWRV SHUYHUVRV VREUH HO SRWHQFLDOGHGHVDUUROOR

/DFXHVWLyQGHOJDVWRHQGHIHQVD\VHJXULGDGPHUHFHXQFLHUWRGHWHQLPLHQWR&RQ PRWLYR GH OD SURJUHVLyQ TXH HQ ORVDxRVQRYHQWDH[SHULPHQWyHOWHUURULVPR\VREUH WRGR D UDt] GH VX H[WHQVLyQ KDFLD ORV SDtVHV PiV GHVDUUROODGRV VH DVLVWLy HQ pVWRV D SDUWLU GH D XQ FUHFLPLHQWR DSUHFLDEOH GH ORV JDVWRV PLOLWDUHV DVt FRPR GH ORV GHVWLQDGRVDUHIRU]DUGHODVIXHU]DVSROLFLDOHV7DOWHQGHQFLDVHKDYLVWRDFHQWXDGDHQORV DxRV PiV UHFLHQWHV HVSHFLDOPHQWH GHVSXpV GH ORV DWHQWDGRV GHO GH VHSWLHPEUH GH HQ1XHYD<RUN\:DVKLQJWRQGHPDQHUDTXHGHKDSRGLGRDILUPDUTXHODHUDGHO ©GLYLGHQGRGHODSD]ª²HQDOXVLyQDOSHUtRGRXOWHULRUDODFDtGDGHO0XURGH%HUOtQHQ HOTXHVHUHGXMRFRQLQWHQVLGDGHOUHIHULGRJDVWR ² KDWHUPLQDGR3XHVELHQHVWHGHVYtR GH UHFXUVRV KDFLD OD OXFKD FRQWUDWHUURULVWD SXHGH WHQHU XQ LPSDFWR QHJDWLYR VREUH HO FUHFLPLHQWR HFRQyPLFR D ODUJR SOD]R SXHV VH DVRFLD D pO XQD PHQRU DFXPXODFLyQ GH FDSLWDO \ XQD SURSRUFLyQ PiV UHGXFLGD GH HPSOHRV FLYLOHV FX\DSURGXFWLYLGDG HV PiV DOWD TXH OD GH ORV PLOLWDUHV /RV HVWXGLRV HFRQRPpWULFRV VREUH HVWH WHPD QR VRQ VLQ HPEDUJRGHOWRGRFRQFOX\HQWHVDXQTXHHOEDODQFHTXHVHSXHGHHVWDEOHFHUDSDUWLUGH HOORVVHLQFOLQDKDFLDODRSLQLyQGHTXHGLFKRHIHFWRHVUHDOVLELHQWLHQHOXJDUGHXQD PDQHUD PiV ELHQ DWHQXDGD $Vt XQR GH ORV WUDEDMRV PiV UHFLHQWHV GH ORV TXH VH

GLVSRQHVHxDODTXHXQDXPHQWRGHORVJDVWRVPLOLWDUHVHTXLYDOHQWHDXQSRUGHO

3,%UHGXFHHOSRWHQFLDOGHFUHFLPLHQWRHFRQyPLFRHQXQSRU

$GHPiV GHO JDVWR S~EOLFR HQ GHIHQVD \ VHJXULG DG WDPELpQ VH UHJLVWUD XQ LQFUHPHQWRGHORVJDVWRVSULYDGRVHQHVWDPDWHULDSDUDSUHYHQLUHOWHUURULVPRORTXHVH FRQFUHWDHQODFRQWUDWDFLyQGHSHUVRQDOHVSHFLDOL]DGR\HQODUHDOL]DFLyQGHLQYHUVLRQHV GHVWLQDGDV D IDFLOLWDU OD YLJLODQFLD HVWDEOHFHU DO DUPDV R SURWHJHU ORV VLVWHPDV LQIRUPiWLFRV 7DOHV JDVWRV DXQTXH PHMRUDQ HO ELHQHVWDU SHUVRQDO VH FRQFUHWDQ HQ DFWLYLGDGHV FX\D SURGXFWLYLGDG HV PiV ELHQ EDMD \ HQ DOJXQRV FDVRV ²FRPR HQ ORV DHURSXHUWRV\HVWDFLRQHVRHQHODFFHVRDHGLILFLRV\RILFLQDV ² RFDVLRQDQSpUGLGDVGH WLHPSRTXHWDPELpQUHGXFHQODSURGXFWLYLGDGGHOWUDEDMR&RQWRGRVHWUDWDGHXQHIHFWR GpELOGHPDQHUDTXHVHHVWLPDTXHODGXSOLFDFLyQGHWDOHVJDVWRVVyORUHGXFHHOQLYHO SRWHQFLDOGHO3,%HQXQSRUDOFDERGHVHLVDxRV

(Q FRQMXQWR HO LQFUHPHQWR GHO JDVWR S~EOLFR \ SULYDGR SDUD DXPHQWDU OD VHJXULGDG LQWHULRU \ FRPEDWLU HO WHUURULVPR VXSRQH XQD GHVYLDFLyQ GH UHFXUVRV KDFLD DFWLYLGDGHVGHEDMDSURGXFWLYLGDG\FRQHOORXQDUHEDMDHQODFDSDFLGDGSRWHQFLDOGH GHVDUUROORGHODHFRQRPtD/D2&'(KDHVWLPDGRFRQXQPRGHORGHVLPXODFLyQHQHO TXHVHWRPDFRPREDVHODHFRQRPtDQRUWHDPHULFDQDTXHFRQXQLQFUHPHQWRGHOSRU GHO3,%HQHOJDVWRPLOLWDUILQDQFLDGRFRQODHPLVLyQGHGHXGDS~EOLFDXQDXPHQWR GHOHPSOHRS~EOLFRHTXLYDOHQWHDOSRUGHODSREODFLyQDFWLYD\XQDDO]DHQHO

/RV PRGHORV HFRQ RPpWULFRV HVWLPDGRV SRU *XSWD HW DO D SiJV D DSRUWDQ XQD YHULILFDFLyQ

HPStULFD D HVWRV HIHFWRV SHUYHUVRV GHO FRPSRUWDPLHQWR GHO VHFWRU S~EOLFR \ VHxDODQ WDPELpQ HO LPSDFWR QHJDWLYRJOREDOGHODJXHUUDWHUURULVWDVREUHHOQLYHOGH3,%SRUKD ELWDQWHGHORVSDtVHVHQFRQIOLFWR

9LG2&'(SiJ\/HQDLQHWDOSiJV\

9LG6PLWK\'XQQH

(20)

JDVWRSULYDGRGHVHJXULGDGGHOSRUGHO3,%HVFDORQDGRVDORODUJRGHWUHVDxRV VH SURGXFHQ ORV VLJXLHQWHV HIHFWRV D FRUWR SOD]R HO HQVDQFKDPLHQWR GH OD GHPDQGD HVWLPXOD XQD VXELGD GH OD SURGXFFLyQ GH PDQHUD TXH GXUDQWH HVRV WUHV HMHUFLFLRV HO 3,%FUHFHSRUHQFLPDGHOQLYHOGHUHIHUHQFLDSHURDOFDERGHHVHWLHPSRODHOHYDFLyQ GH ORV WLSRV GH LQWHUpV HQ PiV GH SXQWRV EiVLFRV LQGXFLGD SRU HO HQGHXGDPLHQWR S~EOLFR IUHQD OD DFXPXODFLyQ GH FDSLWDO DGHPiV OD SURGXFWLYLGDG GHO WUDEDMR VH YH FHUFHQDGDHQXQSRU\HOWLSRGHFDPELRUHDOVHLQFUHPHQWDHQWRUQRDOSRU \HQFRQVHFXHQFLDODSURGXFFLyQGHVFLHQGHGHPRGRTXHDOTXLQWRDxRVHUHJLVWUD \D XQD FDtGD GHO SRU HQ HO 3,% FRQ UHVSHFWR D VX QLYHO GH UHIHUHQFLD (Q

GHILQLWLYDDXQTXH FRQ XQRV HIHFWRVQRGHPDVLDGROODPDWLYRVSDUHFHHYLGHQWHTXHODV DFWLYLGDGHV FRQWUDWHUURULVWDV VH WUDGXFHQ HQ XQD UHEDMD GHO SRWHQFLDO GH GHVDUUROOR HFRQyPLFRORTXHQRREVWDSDUDTXHSRURWUDSDUWHPHMRUHQODSHUFHSFLyQVXEMHWLYDGH ELHQHVWDUGHORVFLXGDGDQRV\VHHYLWHDVtHOLPSDFWRQHJDWLYRTXHVREUHODHFRQRPtD VLHPSUHWLHQHHODXPHQWRGHODLQFHUWLGXPEUH

3RURWURODGRPiVDOOiGHHVWRVHIHFWRVGHQDWX UDOH]DPDFURHFRQyPLFDWDPELpQ VH KDQ DQDOL]DGR RWURV TXH VH FLUFXQVFULEHQ D GHWHUPLQDGRV VHFWRUHV GH OD HFRQRPtD $VtFRQRFDVLyQGHORVDWDTXHVGHO±6HQ(VWDGRV8QLGRVVHKDDQDOL]DGRHOLPSDFWR GHO WHUURULVPR VREUH HO VHFWRU DVHJXUDGRU GHVWDFiQGRV H TXH HO DXPHQWR GH OD VLQLHVWUDOLGDG FRQGXFH D XQ LQFUHPHQWR GH ODV SULPDV FREUDGDV SRU ORV ELHQHV DVHJXUDGRV DVt FRPR HQ FLHUWRV FDVRV DO UHFKD]R GH OD FREHUWXUD GHO ULHVJR FRUUHVSRQGLHQWH(OSULPHURGHHVRVHIHFWRVWLHQHXQDPD\RULQFLGHQFLDVREUHD OJXQDV LQGXVWULDV FRPR OD GHO WUDQVSRUWH ²VLQJXODUPHQWH HO DpUHR² OD FRQVWUXFFLyQ OD HQHUJtD R OD WXUtVWLFDHVWLPiQGRVHTXHGLFKRVDWHQWDGRVFRQGXMHURQDXQDXPHQWRGHO RUGHQGHOSRUHQODVSULPDVSRUUHVSRQVDELOLGDGFLYLORSRUSpUGLGDVHQORV ELHQHV FRPHUFLDOL]DEOHV<HOVHJXQGRVHSURGXFHFRQPXFKDIUHFXHQFLDSXHVVRQSRFRVORV

SDtVHVHQORVTXHVHKDQHVWDEOHFLGRLQVWLWXFLRQHVFDSDFHVGHVROYHQWDUHVHSUREOHPDGH H[FOXVLyQ GHO PHUFDGR 2WUR VHFWRU SDUD HO TXH FRQ UHVSHFWR D ORV SDtVHV

PHGLWHUUiQHRVVHKDQGHVWDFDGRORVQHJDWLYRVHIHFWRVGHOWHUURULVPRHVHOGHOWXULVPR XQ VHFWRU VHQVLEOH DO LPSDFWR TXH ORV DWHQWDGRV WLHQHQ VREUH XQRV GHPDQGDQWHV TXH SXHGHQFDPELDUGHGHVWLQRIiFLOPHQWH<ILQDOPHQWHDOXGLHQGRDORVFDVRVGH(VSDxD

\ *UHFLD VH KD GHVWDFDGR TXH HQWUH \ HO WHUURULVPR KD FDXVDGR XQD UHGXFFLyQ GH ORV IOXMRV GH LQYHUVLyQ H[WUDQMHUD GLUHFWD UHFLELGRV SRU HVRV SDtVHV GH PDQHUD TXH HQ HO SULPHUR VH KD SHUGLGR XQD FLIUD HTXLYDOHQWH DO SRU GH OD )RUPDFLyQ%UXWDGH&DSLWDO)LMR\HQHOVHJXQGRRWUDTXHVHHOHYDKDVWDHOSRU GHGLFKDYDULDEOHPDFURHFRQyPLFD

9LG2&'(SiJV \

9LG+LOOPDQ

(QWUHHOORVVHGHVWDFDQORV FDVRVGH(VSDxD ²GRQGHHO&RQVRUFLRGH&RPSHQVDFLyQGH6HJXURVFUHDGRHQ

VHKDFHFDUJRGHORVULHVJRVSRUWHUURULVPRGHVGHHOFRPLHQ]RGHORVDxRVVHWHQWD ²HO5HLQR8QLGR ² GRQGH GHVGH H[LVWH XQ PHFDQLVPR GH UHDVHJXURV HO 3RRO 5H HVWDEOHFLGR FRQ RFDVLyQ GHO UHFUXGHFLPLHQWR GH ORV DWDTXHV GHO ,5$ ² ÈIULFD GHO 6XU ²GRQGH GHVGH OD6RXWK $IULFDQ 6SHFLDO ,QVXUDQFH $VVRFLDWLRQ DVHJXUD ORV ULHVJRV SROtWLFRV ² ,VUDHO ²GRQGH H[LVWH XQ IRQGR ILQDQFLDGR SRU XQ LPSXHVWRVREUHELHQHVLQPRELOLDULRV SDUDFXEULUORVGDxRVSRUWHUURULVPR ²\)UDQFLD ²SDtVHQHOTXHFRQ RFDVLyQGHO±6OD&DLVVH&HQWUDOHGH5pDVVXUDQFH HPSH]yDKDFHUVHFDUJRGHHVWRVULHVJRV ²9LG2&'(

9LG'UDJRV\.XWDQ 9LG(QGHUV\6DQGOHU

(21)

/RV HVWXGLRVVREUHODVFRQVHFXHQFLDVHFRQyPLFDVGHOWHUURULVPRKDQGHVWDFDGR WDPELpQ TXH HQ HO FDVR GH FRQIOLFWRV LQWHQVRV \ FRQWLQXDGRV VH SURGXFH WDPELpQ XQ HQFDUHFLPLHQWRGHORVELHQHV\VHUYLFLRVDOGHVHQFDGHQDUVHSURFHVRVLQIODFLRQLVWDVPX\ LQWHQVRV $Vt *XSWDHW DO D SDUWLHQGR GHO DQiOLVLV GH QXHYH FDVRV GH JXHUUDV WHUURULVWDV HYDO~DQ OD WDVD DQXDOGH FUHFLPLHQWR GH ORVSUH FLRV DO FRQVXPR GXUDQWH HO FRQIOLFWR HQ PiV GHO SRU XQ QLYHO TXH VH[WXSOLFD HO REVHUYDGR HQ ORV DxRV DQWHULRUHVDODFRQIODJUDFLyQ/DKLSHULQIODFLyQHVXQUHVXOWDGRDVRFLDGRDODDFWLYLGDG GHSUHGDGRUD GH ODV RUJDQL]DFLRQHV WHUURULVWDV D OD GHVWU XFFLyQ GH OD EDVH SURGXFWLYD QDFLRQDO \ D OD H[WHQVLyQ GHO PHUFDGR QHJUR < VXV HIHFWRV VRQ GHYDVWDGRUHV SDUD OD HFRQRPtD²SXHVLQXWLOL]DHOSDSHOGHODPRQHGDFRPRPHGLRGHLQWHUFDPELRKDFLHQGR FUHFHUHOWUXHTXHFRPRIRUPDGHUHODFLyQGHPHUFDGR ² \SDUDODSREODFLyQ²SXHVKDFH LQHOXGLEOHHOHPSREUHFLPLHQWRGHODPD\RUtDGHORVKDELWDQWHV ²

/D FDtGD GH OD DFWLYLGDG HFRQyPLFD ODV GHVWUXFFLRQHV D ODV TXH FRQGXFH OD JXHUUD \ HO HPSREUHFLPLHQWR JHQHUDO VH HQFXHQWUDQ HQ OD EDVH GH ODV SULQFLSDOHV FRQVHFXHQFLDVVRFLDOHVTXHVHKDQREVHUYDGRHQORVSDtVHVTXHVHKDQYLVWRHQYXHOWRVHQ ORVFRQIOLFWRVGHQDWXUDOH]DWHUURULVWD(QWUHHOODVPHUHFHGHVWDFDUVHHQSULPHUOXJDUHO WUDVODGRGHLPSRUWDQWHVVHJPHQWRVGHODSREODFLyQORTXHGDRULJHQDOIHQyPHQRGHORV UHIXJLDGRV\GHORVGHVSOD]DGRV(OORVHGHULYDGHOKHFKRGHTXHDOKDFHUVHODJXHUUD FRQWUDODSREODFLyQFLYLOpVWDWUDWDGHKXLUGHODFRQWLHQGD\ORKDFHPDVLYDPHQWH8Q LQIRUPH GH 2[IDP GHVWDFD TXH GXUDQWH HO GHFHQLR GH HO SRU GH ODV YtFWLPDVHQORVFRQIOLFWRVDUPDGRVKDQVLGRFLYLOHV<DVXYH]HO$OWR&RPLVLRQDGR

GH 1DFLRQHV 8QLGDV SDUD ORV 5HIXJLDGRV GHVWDFD TXH VL DO PHGLDU OD GpFDGD GH ORV VHWHQWDVHFRQWDELOL]DEDQPLOORQHVGHSHUVRQDVUHIXJLDGDVRGHVSOD]DGDVYHLQWHDxRV PiV WDUGH HVWD FLIUD VH KDEtD PXOWLSOLFDGR SRU VLHWH OOHJDQGR D ORV PLOORQHV GH LQGLYLGXRV$OFRPHQ]DUHOVLJORDFWXDOHVWDRUJDQL]DFLyQLQWHUQDFLRQDOHYDOXDEDHQ PLOORQHVHOQ~PHURGHUHIXJLDGRV\HQHOGHGHVSOD]DGRVLQWHUQDPHQWHVLHQGRORV

SULQFLSDOHVSDtVHVDIHFWDGRVORVTXHVHUHIOHMDQHQHOFXDGUR

2WUD GH ODV FRQVHFXHQFLDV VRFLDOHV GHULYDGDV GH OD JXHUUD WHUURULVWD HV HO GHWHULRUR GH ODV FRQGLFLRQHV GH YLGD GH OD SREODFLyQ FLYLO OR TXH DIHFWD D VX DOLPHQWDFLyQ \ D VX VDOXG $Vt WRPDQGR FRPR HMHPSOR HO FDVR GH 3DOHVWLQD FRQ SRVWHULRULGDGDOGHVHQFDGHQDPLHQWRGHOD,QWLIDGDGH$O$TVDHQ ²XQRGHFX\RV UDVJRV HVHQFLDOHVKDVLGRODXWLOL]DFLyQGHOWHUURULVPRFRQWUD,VUDHO ²GHDFXHUGRFRQ ORVGDWRVGLIXQGLGRVSRUOD$JHQFLDGH&RRSHUDFLyQ,QWHUQDFLRQDOGH(VWDGRV8QLGRVVH DSUHFLD TXH GRV DxRV PiV WDUGH OD PLWDG GH ORV SDOHVWLQRV QHFHVLWDQ UHFLELU D\XGD DOLPHQWDULD²VLHQGRORVEHQHILFLDULRVGHO3URJUDPD0XQGLDOGH$OLPHQWRVGH OD )$2 \ XQ PLOOyQ ORV DFRJLGRV EDMR OD $JHQFLD GH 1DFLRQHV 8QLGDV SDUD ORV 5HIXJLDGRV 3DOHVWLQRV² PiV GHO SRU GH ODV IDPLOLDV VH HQFXHQWUDQ GHVDEDVWHFLGDV GH SURWHtQDV DQLPDOHV R GH IUXWDV \ OHJXPEUHV OD PDOQXWULFLyQ DIHFWD DO SRU GH ORV QLxRV \ OD DQHPLD D RWUR SRU HVWD HQIHUPHGDG HVWi WDPELpQH[WHQGLGDHQWUHHOSRUGHODVPXMHUHVHQHGDGIpUWLO3HURPiVDOOiGH

HVWHFDVRFRQFUHWRORVHVWXGLRVTXHKDQWRPDGRHQFRQVLGHUDFLyQXQDPXOWLSOLFLGDGGH

9LG&DLUQV

3DUDPiVGHWDOOHYLG &ROOLHUHWDOSiJV\VV

(22)

SDtVHVFRQFRQIOLFWRVVHxDODQXQDUHGXFFLyQLPSRUWDQWHGHODHV SHUDQ]DGHYLGD²FRQ XQDFDtGDGHOSRUFDGDDxRGHJXHUUD²XQDXPHQWRGHODPRUWDOLGDGLQIDQWLO

²TXHVHLQFUHPHQWDHQXQFRQIOLFWRWtSLFRGHFLQFRDxRVGHGXUDFLyQHQXQSRU SRU HQFLPD GHOQLYHOGH EDVHSHUPDQHFLHQGR XQ SRU PiVD UULED GH HVWH QLYHO GXUDQWH HO TXLQTXHQLR GH SRVJXHUUD² \ XQ LQFUHPHQWR DFXVDGR GH OD PRUELOLGDG

RFDVLRQDGDSRUHQIHUPHGDGHVLQIHFFLRVDV ²HQWUHODVTXHVHGHVWDFDQHOVDUDPSLyQOD PDODULDODVGLDUUHDVODVDIHFFLRQHVHVSLUDWRULDV\HOVLGD ²

&XDGUR3ULQFLSDOHVSDtVHVGHRULJHQGHORVUHIXJLDGRV\GHVSOD]DGRVLQWHUQDPHQWH 0LOHVGHSHUVRQDVHQ

3DtV 3HUtRGR 1žGHUHIXJLDGRV 1žGHGHVSOD]DGRVLQWHUQDPHQWH

$IJDQLVWiQ ± %XUXQGL (QFXUVR ± ,UDN ± ± 6XGiQ (QFXUVR ± $QJROD ± 6RPDOLD ± ± %RVQLD±+HU]HJRYLQD ± 5HS~EOLFD'HPRFUiWLFDGHO&RQJR ± (ULWUHD ± ± &RORPELD (QFXUVR ± 6UL/DQND ± ± $]HUEDL\iQ (QFXUVR ± 5XVLD (QFXUVR ± *HRUJLD (QFXUVR ± 6HUYLD\0RQWHQHJUR ± ± /LEHULD ± ± )XHQWH81+&5

)LQDOPHQWH HO WHUURULVPR FDXVD VHYHURV GDxRV SVLFROyJLFRV HQWUH ORV TXH VREUHYLYHQD OD JXHUUD$XQTXHQRVHGLVSRQHGHPXFKRVHVWXGLRVDOUHVSHFWRVtVH

SXHGH LQGLFDU TXH OD SUHYDOHQFLD GH ODV HQIHUPHGDGHV SVLFROyJLFDV HQWUH TXLHQHV KDQ VLGR YtFWLPDV GHO WHUURU HV PX\ HOHYDGD $Vt HQ %RVQLD±+HU]HJRYLQD ODV

LQYHVWLJDFLRQHV HSLGHPLROyJLFDV OOHYDGDV D FDER HQWUH ORV UHIXJLDGRV VHxDODQ TXH OD GHSUHVLyQDIHFWDDXQDSURSRUFLyQTXHVHVLW~DHQWUHHO\HOSRU\HOWUDVWRUQR GHHVWUpVSRVWUDXPiWLFR7(73VHPDQLILHVWDHQWUHHO\HO SRUGHORVFDVRV DQDOL]DGRV 3RU VX SDUWH HQWUH ORV UHIXJLDGRV FDPER\DQRV ORV VtQWRPDV GH GHSUHVLyQ DSDUHFHQHQXQSRUGHORVLQGLYLGXRV\HO7(37HQHOSRU(Q(VSDxD HQWUH ODV YtFWLPDV GHO WHUURULVPR GH (7$ VH HVWLPD XQD SUHYDOHQF LD GH WUDVWRUQRV SVLTXLiWULFRVGHOSRUHQWUHTXLHQHVKDVXIULGRGLUHFWDPHQWHDWHQWDGRV\GHO SRUHQWUHVXVIDPLOLDUHV\ODSUREDELOLGDGGHVXIULUHO7(37VHKDHVWLPDGRHQHO

9LG*XSWDHWDODSiJ

/DHVWLPDFLyQHVGH+RHIIOHU\5H\QDO ±4XHURO(Q&ROOLHUHW DOSiJV\VVSXHGHDPSOLDUVH

FRQDEXQGDQWHVGDWRVHVWHSXQWR

3RU GDxR SVLFROyJLFR VH HQWLHQGH HO FRQMXQWR GH OHVLRQHV SVtTXLFDV TXH VH GHULYDQ GH ODV UHDFFLRQHV

LQGLYLGXDOHV D ORV VXFHVRV TXH SRQHQ HQ SHOLJUR OD LQWHJULGDG ItVLFD R PRUDO GH ODV SHUVRQDV DVt FRPR ODV VHFXHODVHPRFLRQDOHVTXHSHUVLVWHQDGLFKDVOHVLRQHV\PHQRVFDEDQODVDOXGPHQWDOGHTXLHQORSDGHFH9LG SDUDHVWRVFRQFHSWRV\VXUHODFLyQFRQHOWHUURULVPR(FKHEXU~DFDStWXOR

9LG&ROOLHUHWDOSiJV \VV &IU%DFDHWDOSiJV\

(23)

SRUVLWXiQGRVHHQOtQHDFRQRWURVGHOLWRVYLROHQWRV< WDPELpQHQ(VSDxDFRQ

UHVSHFWR DO DWHQWDGR GHO GH PDU]R GH HQ 0DGULG VH KD HVWLPDGR TXH HQ HO SHUtRGR LQPHGLDWDPHQWH SRVWHULRU DO VXFHVR WUDXPiWLFR HQWUH ODV YtFWLPDV \ VXV IDPLOLDUHVVHFRQWDELOL]DEDXQSRUFRQVtQWRPDVGHGHSUHVLyQ \RWURSRU FRQ 7(37 HVWD SUHYDOHQFLD KDEtD GLVPLQXLGR KDVWD HO \ SRU UHVSHFWLYDPHQWHSDVDGRVVHLVPHVHVGHODWHQWDGR

&IU(FKHEXU~DSiJ &IU7REDOHWDO

(24)

5()(5(1&,$6%,%/,2*5$),&$6

$EDGLH$\*DUGHD]iEDO-³7KH(FRQRPLF&RVWVRI&RQIOLFW$&DVH6WXG \ RIWKH%DVTXH&RXQWU\´7KH$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZYROQž0DU]R %DFD(HWDO ³(O3UR\HFWR)pQL[XQHVWXGLRVREUHODVYtFWLPDVGHOWHUURULVPR

HQ(VSDxD5HVXOWDGRVSUHOLPLQDUHV´LQFOXLGRHQ%DFD\&DEDQDV

%DFD ( \ &DEDQDV 0/ /DV YtFWLPDV GH OD YLROHQFLD (VWXGLRV SVLFRSDWROyJLFRV7ULDFDVWHOD0DGULG

%ODQFR$'HOÈJXLOD5\6DEXFHGR-0(GV0DGULG±08QDQiOLVLV GHOPDO\VXVFRQVHFXHQFLDV(GLWRULDO7URWWD0DGULG

%RXFKHW±6DXOQLHU ) ³,QWURGXFFLyQ DO GHUHFKR LQWHUQDFLRQDO KXPDQLWDULR´ LQFOXLGRHQ*XWPDQ\5LHII

%XHVD0'LU(FRQRPtDGHODVHFHVLyQ(OSUR\HFWRQDFLRQDOLVWD\HO3DtV 9DVFR,QVWLWXWRGH(VWXGLRV)LVFDOHV0DGULG

&DLUQV ( $ 6DIHU )XWXUH 5HGXFLQJ WKH +XPDQ &RVW RI :DU 2[IDP 3XEOLFDWLRQV2[IRUG

&DUU & /DV OHFFLRQHV GHO WHUURU 2UtJHQHV KLVWyULFRV GHO WHUURULVPR LQWHUQDFLRQDO(GLFLRQHV%%DUFHORQD

&DVWHOOV0\6HUUD1(GV*XHUUD\SD]HQHOVLJOR;;,8QDSHUVSHFWLYD HXURSHD7XVTXHWV%DUFHORQD

&ODXVHZLW] & YRQ 9RP .ULHJH )HUGLQDQG 'PPOHU %HUOtQ 6H FLWD GH OD HGLFLyQHVSDxROD'HODJXHUUD/D(VIHUDGHORV/LEURV0DGULG

&RFNEXUQ $ ³'LDPDQWHV 6X YHUGDGHUD KLVWRULD´ 1DWLRQDO *HRJUDSKLF

HGLFLyQHVSDxROD9ROQž0DU]R

&ROOLHU3HWDO%UHDNLQJWKH&RQIOLFW7UDS&LYLO:DUDQG'HYHORSPHQW3ROLF\

:RUOG%DQN±2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV:DVKLQJWRQ

'H OD *XDUGLD - ³3DOHVWLQD YLYH GH OD D\XGD KXPDQLWDUL D´(O 3DtV GH DJRVWR

'UDNRV.\.XWDQ$5HJLRQDOHIIHFWVRIWHUURULVPRQWRXULVPHYLGHQFHIURP WKUHH0HGLWHUUDQHDQFRXQWULHV=HQWUXPIU(XURSlLVFKH,QWHJUDWLRQVIRUVFKXQJ :RUNLQJ3DSHUQž%

(FKHEXU~D ( 6XSHUDU XQ WUDXPD (O WUDWDPLHQWR GH ODV YtFWLPDV GH VXFHVRV YLROHQWRV(GLFLRQHV3LUiPLGH0DGULG

(ORU]D$D³7HUURULVPRLVOiPLFRODVUDtFHVGRFWULQDOHV´LQFOXLGRHQ5HLQDUHV\ (ORU]D(GV

(ORU]D $ E ³$QDWRPtD GH OD \LKDG HQ HO &RUiQ \ ORV K DGLFHV´ LQFOXLGR HQ 5HLQDUHV\(ORU]D(GV

(ORU]D$%DOOHVWHU0\%RUUHJXHUR(³7HUURULVPR\UHOLJLyQ´LQFOXLGRHQ %ODQFR'HOÈJXLOD\6DEXFHGR(GV

(QGHUV : \ 6DQGOHU 7 ³7HUURULVP DQG )RUHLJQ 'LUHFW ,QYHVW PHQW LQ 6SDLQ DQG*UHHFH´.\NORVYROQž

(25)

*UD\-* *XHUUHURV 5HIOH[LRQHV GHO KRPEUH HQ OD EDWDOOD ,QpGLWD (GLWRUHV %DUFHORQD

*XSWD6HWDOD)LVFDO&RQVHTXHQFHVRI$UPHG&RQIOLFWDQG7HUURULVPLQ/RZ DQG0LGGOH±,QFRPH&RXQWULHV,0):RUNLQJ3DSHUQž:DVKLQJWRQ *XSWD6HWDOE³(OHYDVLYRGLYLGHQGRGHODSD]´)LQDQ]DV 'HVDUUROORYRO

Qž'LFLHPEUH

*XWPDQ5\5LHII'&UtPHQHVGHJXHUUD(GLWRULDO'HEDWH%DUFHORQD

+LOOPDQ 5- 7HUURULVP ,QVXUDQFH 5LVLQJ 8QLQVXUHG ([SRVXUH WR $WWDFNV +HLJKWHQV 3RWHQWLDO (FRQRPLF 9XOQHUDELOLWLHV86 *HQHUDO $FFRXQWLQJ 2IILFH :DVKLQJWRQ

+RHIIOHU $ \ 5H\QDO±4XHURO 0 0HDVXULQJ WKH &RVW RI &RQIOLFW2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\2[IRUG

,JQDWLHII0(OKRQRUGHOJXHUUHUR*XHUUDpWQLFD\FRQFLHQFLDPRGHUQD6XPD GH/HWUDV0DGULG

,JQDWLHII 0 ³&RPLWp ,QWHUQDFLRQDO GH OD &UX] 5RMD´ LQFOXLGR HQ *XWPDQ \ 5LHII

,JQDWLHII0³(OWHUURULVWDFRPRGLUHFWRUGHFLQH´(O3DtVGHQRYLHPEUH ,JQDWLHII0(OPDOPHQRUeWLFDSROtWLFDHQXQDHUDGHWHUURU7DXUXV0DGULG .DOGRU 0 /DV QXHYDV JXHUUDV 9LROHQFLD RUJDQL]DGD HQ OD HUD JOREDO

7XVTXHWV(GLWRUHV%DUFHORQD

.DOGRU0³+D]ODOH\\QRODJXHUUDODDSDULFLyQGHODVRFLHGDGFLYLOJOREDO´ LQFOXLGRHQ&DVWHOOV\6HUUD

.DOGRU 0 /D VRFLHGDG FLYLO JOREDO 8QD UHVSXHVWD D OD JXHUUD 7XVTXHWV (GLWRUHV%DUFHORQD

.HQQHG\ 3 $XJH \ FDtGD GH ODV JUDQGHV SRWHQFLDV *OREXV &RPXQLFDFLyQ 0DGULG

.LVVLQJHU+'LSORPDFLD(GLFLRQHV%%DUFHORQD

/DTXHXU:8QDKLVWRULDGHOWHUURULVPR3DLGyV%DUFHORQD

/HQDLQ 3HW DO7KH HFRQRPLF FRQVHTXHQFHV RI WHUURULVP 2(&'±(FRQRPLFV 'HSDUWPHQW:RUNLQJ3DSHUVQž3DULV

/XGHQGRUII(0HLQH.ULHJVHULQQHUXQJHQ%HUOLQ

0DDORXI$,GHQWLGDGHVDVHVLQDV$OLDQ]D(GLWRULDO0DGULG

0LJXHO -- ³5HVXOWDGRV GH OD LQYHVWLJDFLyQ VREUH ODV FRQVHFXHQFLDV GH ORV DWHQWDGRVGHO±0HQ0DGULG´&RPXQLFDGRGHSUHQVDGHOD6RFLHGDG(VSDxROD SDUDHOHVWXGLRGHOD$QVLHGDG\HO(VWUpV0DGULGGHPDU]R

0QNOHU+'LHQHXHQ.ULHJH5HLQEHFNEHL+DPEXUJ+DPEXUJR

0\UR 5HW DO ³&UHFLPLHQWR HFRQyPLFR \ FRQIOLFWR VRFLDOHQ HO 3 DtV 9DVFR´ LQFOXLGRHQ%XHVD'LU

(26)

1DSROHRQL / <LKDG &yPR VH ILQDQFLD HO WHUURULVPR HQ OD QXHYD HFRQRPtD

(GLFLRQHV8UDQR%DUFHORQD

2&'(³&RQVpTXHQFHVpFRQRPLTXHVGXWHUURULVPH´3HUVSHFWLYHVeFRQRPLTXHV GHO¶2&'(Qž3DUtV

5DWQHU65³$JUHVLyQ´LQFOXLGRHQ*XWPDQ\5LHII

5HLQDUHV)7HUURULVPR\DQWLWHUURULVPR(GLFLRQHV3DLGyV%DUFHORQD

5HLQDUHV)\(ORU]D$ (GV(OQXHYRWHUURULVPRLVODPLVWD'HO±6DO± 07HPDVGHKR\0DGULG

6FKROO±/DWRXU3$IULNDQLVFKH7RWHQNODJH0XQLFK

6FKPLGW$3&RXQWHULQJ7HUURULVPWKURXJK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RRSHUDWLRQ0LOiQ 6PLWK 5 \ 'XQQH 3 0LOLWDU\ H[SHQGLWXUH JURZWK DQG LQYHVWPHQW %LUEHFN

&ROOHJHDQG0LGGOHVH[8QLYHUVLW\%XVLQHVV6FKRRO$EULO

6RXWKZRUWK+5/DGHVWUXFFLyQGH*XHUQLFD5XHGR,EpULFR3DUtV

6WHZDUW)+XDQJ&\:DQJ0³,QWHUQDO:DUVLQ'HYHORSLQJ&RXQWULHV$Q (PSLULFDO 2YHUYLHZ RI (FRQRPLF DQG 6RFLDO &RQVHTXHQFHV´ LQFOXLGR HQ ) 6WHZDUWHW DO :DU DQG 8QGHUGHYHORSPHQW YRO 2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV 2[IRUG

7KDPP +* ³7KH 1H[XV EHWZHHQ $UPV 7UDGH 'UXJV DQG 7HUURULVP´ LQFOXLGRHQ 6FKPLGW

7KRPDV*\0RUJDQ±:LWWV0(OGtDHQTXHPXULy*XHUQLFD3OD]D -DQHV (GLWRUHV%DUFHORQD

7RGRURY70HPRULDGHOPDOWHQWDFLyQGHOELHQ,QGDJDFLyQVREUHHOVLJOR;; (GLFLRQHV3HQtQVXOD%DUFHORQD

7RGRURY7(OQXHYRGHVRUGHQPXQGLDO(GLFLRQHV3HQtQVXOD%DUFHORQD

86±*$2 5HYLHZ RI WKH HVWLPDWHV IRU WKH ,PSDFW RI WKH 6HSWHPEHU 7HUURULVW $WWDFNV RQ 1HZ <RUN7D[ 5HYHQXHV86 *HQHUDO $FFRXQWLQJ 2IILFH :DVKLQJWRQ

9HODUGH - ³/D HFRQRPtD GHO WHUURU´ LQFOXLGR HQ * 6iHQ] GH %XUXDJD

+RPHQDMHDO3URIHVRU6DPSHGUR)XQGDFLyQ%DQFR([WHULRU0DGULG

9LOODPDUtQ /$ 1DUFRWHUURULVPR /D JXHUUD GHO QXHYR VLJOR (GLFLRQHV 1RZWLOXV0DGULG

:DO]HU0*XHUUDVMXVWDVHLQMXVWDV3DLGyV%DUFHORQD :DO]HU05HIOH[LRQHVVREUHODJXHUUD3DLGyV%DUFHORQD

(27)

Ò/7,0267Ë78/2638%/,&$'26

-XVWLILFDFLyQ GH OD SROtWLFD GH LQQRYDFLyQ GHVGH XQ HQIRTXH WHyULFR \ PHWRGROyJLFR-RRVW+HLMV

/RV VLVWHPDV QDFLRQDOHV GH LQQRYDFLyQ XQD UHYLVLyQ GH OD OLWHUDWXUD0LNHO 1DYDUUR

(ODQiOLVLV\ODSROtWLFDGHFOXVWHUV0LNHO1DYDUUR

/RV VLVWHPDV UHJLRQDOHV GH LQQRYDFLyQ GHO 3DtV 9DVFR \ 1DYDUUD 0LNHO %XHVD

&HQWUDOLVDWLRQRUGLVSHUVLRQ"DVSDWLDODQDO\VLVRIWKHLPSDFWRIWKHVLQJOHPDUNHW SURJUDPPHRQWKHDFWLYLW\RIXVPDQXIDFWXULQJDIILOLDWHV$QGUHZ0ROG

(O VLVWHPD UHJLRQDO GH LQQRYDFLyQ GH OD &RPXQLGDG GH 0DGULG 0LNHO %XHVD

(FRQRPtDGHOD VHFHVLyQ/RVFRVWHVGHODµ1R(VSDxD¶HQHO3DtV9DVFR0LNHO %XHVD

7KHVSDQLVKSXEOLFILQDQFLDOVXSSRUWDFFHVLEOHIRUVPDOODQGPHGLXPVL]HGILUPV RUJDQLVDWLRQVSURJUDPHVLQVWUXPHQWVDQGPHDVXUHV-RRVW+HLMV

/RV GHWHUPLQDQWHV GH OD FDSDFLGDG LQQRYDGRUD UHJLRQDO XQD DSUR[LPDFLyQ HFRQRPpWULFDDOFDVRHVSDxRO5HFRSLODFLyQGHHVWXGLRV\SULPHURVUHVXOWDGRV7KRPDV %DXPHUW\-RRVW+HLMV

5HFXUVRV\UHVXOWDGRVGHORVVLVWHPDVGHLQQRYDFLyQHODERUDFLyQGHXQDWLSRORJtD GHVLVWHPDVUHJLRQDOHVGHLQQRYDFLyQHQ(VSDxD0yQLFD0DUWtQH]3HOOLWHUR 0HGLGDGHODFDSDFLGDGLQQRYDGRUDGHODV&RPXQLGDGHV$XWyQRPDVFRQVWUXFFLyQ GH XQ tQGLFH UHJLRQDO GH LQQRYDFLyQ 0yQLFD 0DUWtQH] 3HOOLWHUR \ 7KRPDV %DXPHUW

,QQRYDFLyQWHFQROyJLFD\FRPSHWLWLYLGDGDQiOLVLVPLFURHFRQyPLFRGHODFRQGXFWD H[SRUWDGRUDHQ0p[LFR6DOYDGRU(VWUDGD\-RRVW+HLMV

,QGLFDGRUHVGHODVRFLHGDGGHODLQIRUPDFLyQHQ(VSDxD6DOYDGRU(VWUDGD /RV FHQWURV WHFQROyJLFRV \ HO VLVWHPD UHJLRQDO GH LQQRYDFLyQ (O FDVR GHO 3DtV 9DVFR0LNHO1DYDUUR$UDQFHJXL\$UDQW]D=XELDXUUH*RHQD

&LHQFLD \ 7HFQRORJtD HQ OD (VSDxD GHPRFUiWLFD OD IRUPDFLyQ GH XQ VLVWHPD QDFLRQDOGHLQQRYDFLyQ0LNHO%XHVD

(28)

/DVHPSUHVDV GHO3DtV 9DVFR DQWH OD VHFHVLyQ0LNHO%XHVD-RRVW+HLMV7KRPDV %DXPHUW\0yQLFD0DUWtQH]3HOOLWHUR

'LIXVLyQ\DGLFLRQDOLGDGGHODVD\XGDVS~EOLFDVDODLQQRYDFLyQXQDHVWLPDFLyQ EDVDGDHQ³SURSHQVLW\VFRUHPDWFKLQJ´/LOLDQD+HUUHUD\-RRVW+HLMV

5HODFLRQHVHLQWHUDFFLyQHQWUHORVDJHQWHVGHOVLVWHPDQDFLRQDOGHLQQRYDFLyQGH (VSDxD UHVXOWDGRV GH ODHQFXHVWD,$,))(&<7 -RRVW+HLMV$QGUpV)HUQiQGH]'tD] 3DWULFLD9DODGH]\$OLFLD&RURQLO

(YDOXDFLyQGHODHIHFWLYLGDGGHODSROtWLFDGHFRRSHUDFLyQHQODLQQRYDFLyQ

-RRVW+HLMV$QGUpV)HUQiQGH]'tD]3DWULFLD9DODGH]\$OLFLD&RURQLO

3DWURQHVUHJLRQDOHVGHXVR\FRQVXPRGH7,&6KDFLDXQtQGLFHUHJLRQDOGHOD 6RFLHGDGGH OD,QIRUPDFLyQ6DOYDGRU(VWUDGD'LVSRQLEOHHQtQJOHV

&RQILJXUDFLyQ HVWUXFWXUDO \ FDSDFLGDG GH SURGXFFLyQ GH FRQRFLPLHQWRV HQ ORV VLVWHPDV UHJLRQDOHV GH LQQRYDFLyQ 8Q HVWXGLR GHO FDVR HVSDxRO 0LNHO %XHVD -RRVW +HLMV0yQLFD0DUWtQH]3HOOLWHUR\7KRPDV%DXPHUW 'LVSRQLEOHHQtQJOHV 7KHGLVWULEXWLRQRI5 'VXEVLGLHVDQGLWVHIIHFWRQWKHILQDORXWFRPHRILQQRYDWLRQ SROLF\-RRVW+HLMVDQG/LOLDQD+HUUHUD

(OSDSHOGHODVHPSUHVDVH[WUDQMHUDVHQHOGHVDUUROORWHFQROyJLFRGH(VSDxD-RRVW +HLMV

7HFKQRORJLFDO EHKDYLRXU DQG H[SRUW SHUIRPDQFH D QRQ OLQHDU UHODWLRQVKLS

6DOYDGRU(VWUDGD\-RRVW+HLMV

8QLGDGGHPHUFDGR\VHFHVLyQHOFDVRGHOSDtV9DVFR0LNHO%XHVD

*XHUUD \ 7HUURULVPR (O PRGHOR GH HFRQRPtD GHSUHGDGRUD GH OD JXHUUD 0LNHO %XHVD 1RUPDVGHHGLFLyQSDUDHOHQYtRGHWUDEDMRV 7H[WR:RUGSDUD:LQGRZV 7LSRGHOHWUDGHOWH[WR7LPHV1HZ5RPDQ1RUPDO (VSDFLDGRLQWHUOLQHDO6HQFLOOR 7LSRGHOHWUDGHODVQRWDVGHSLHGHSiJLQD7LPHV1HZ5RPDQ1RUPDO 1XPHUDFLyQGHSiJLQDV,QIHULRUFHQWUR &XDGURV\JUiILFRVDJXVWRGHODXWRULQGLFDQGRSURJUDPDVXWLOL]DGRV (QODSiJLQDGHQWURGHXQUHFXDGURVHQFLOORGHEHILJXUDUHOWtWXORHQQHJULOOD\ PD\~VFXODVDXWRUHQQHJULOOD\ PD\~VFXODVHLQVWLWXFLyQDODTXHSHUWHQHFHHODXWRUHQOHWUDQRUPDO\PLQ~VFXODV (QODSULPHUDSiJLQDGHOWUDEDMRVHGHEHUiLQFOXLUXQ5HVXPHQHQHVSDxROHLQJOpVOtQHDVPi[LPR DFRPSDxDGRGHSDODEUDVFODYH /RVWUDEDMRVKDEUiQGHVHUHQYLDGRVHQSDSHO\HQVRSRUWHPDJQpWLFRDODGLUHFFLyQGHO,QVWLWXWRGH$QiOLVLV,QGXVWULDO\ )LQDQFLHUR

Referencias

Documento similar

$ HIHFWRV GH REWHQHU XQD PHWRGRORJtD GH WUDVODGR GH HVSHFLILFDFLRQHV WHPSRUDOHV DO GRPLQLR GH OD IUHFXHQFLD TXH PLQLPL]D HO. VREUHGLVHxR \ OD LWHUDFLyQ

HQWUH ODV IXQFLRQHV GH ORV SODQLÀFDGRUHV \ ORV FRPSUDGRUHV GHO PHGLR

frqvwlwx|ìqgrvh hq xqd slh}d fodyh sdud odv srvwhulruhv wduhdv hq ho ghvduuroor gh vriwzduh1 Orv pìwrgrv irupdohv grwdq gh suhflvlöq | uljru do prghor frqfhswxdo/ shur

Ho prghodgr frqfhswxdo wlhqh sru remhwlyr ho hvwdeohfhu orv uhtxlvlwrv ixqflrqdohv gho vlv0 whpd1 Ho prghor frqfhswxdo hvwdeohfh ho yðqfxor hqwuh ho hvsdflr gho sureohpd | ho hvsdflr

Ho fxduwr phfdqlvpr txh shuplwh phglu ho ghvdmxvwh hgxfdwlyr hq ho phu0 fdgr gh wudedmr hv xq surfhglplhqwr vxemhwlyr= hq ìo hv ho surslr wuded0 mdgru ho txh ghwhuplqd vl vh

(Q FRQWUDVWH ORV FOLHQWHV \ VHUYLGRUHV TXH XVDQ 8'3 VH FDUDFWHUL]DQ SRU QR WHQHU JDUDQWtDV VREUH OD ILDELOLGDG GH OD HQWUHJD &amp;XDQGR XQ FOLHQWH HQYtD

/R SULPHUR TXH KDFH GHQWUR GHO FRQVWUXFWRU HV DVLJQDU ORV SDUiPHWURV GH  HQWUDGDDYDULDEOHVGHODFODVH. 

Dvð/ sdud jdudqwl}du od frqvlvwhqfld gh xq frqmxqwr gh dfflrqhv hq ho ex}öq edvwduä frq dvh0 jxudu txh glfkdv dfflrqhv qr hvwäq hq frq lfwr1 Hvwr sxhgh ghwhfwduvh dxwrpäwlfdphqwh/