Tilapia Market in the U.S.

Tilapia Market in the U.S.

Mercado de la Tilapia en EE.UU.

O mercado de tilápia em os EUA

¿Quiénes Somos?

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Desde 1858 reportando el mercado de

materias primas

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Compañía más antigua de EE.UU. Reportando

mercado

¿Qué Hacemos?, y ¿Cómo?

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Sondeo de mercado

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Analistas y Reporteros recolectando datos

cualitativos y cuantitativos

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Referencia de precio

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Información y transparencia

Indicadores Económicos, Producción

Economic Indicators, Production

Indicadores Econômicos, Produção

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 D P M one y I nc om e % o f R ea l D I p er Ca pi ta Tri lli on USD$

Disposable personal money income Real disposable personal income

DP Money Income % of Real DI per capita

Disposable Income & DP Money Income

0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000 40.000 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Disposable Personal Money Income Per-Capita Real Disposable Personal Income Per-Capita

Disposable Income & DP Money Income

0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 Tr illio ns o f U .S . D olla rs Food at home

Food away from home

Food Expenditures

Recession

0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 1.800 2.000 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

At Home Away from Home

At home and away from home, per capita

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Civilian Unemployment Rate

Special Unemployment Rate: Unemployed and Discouraged Workers

Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons

Unemployment

0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Em pl oym ent (1000' s) Source: BLS.gov

Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons, All Industries

50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000

Food Service Manufacturing Retail

2013 New Jobs: 227.700 10.000 164.500

N

ew

J

obs

2013 New Jobs (Jan - July)

-8.000 -6.000 -4.000 -2.000 0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Em pl oym ent (T hous ands )

Total Jobs Added by Age Range Since 2005

16-54 55+

El Mercado de Tilapia

The Market, Tilapia

Mercado, Tilapia

14,0 14,5 15,0 15,5 16,0 16,5 17,0 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Shrimp Canned Tuna Salmon Pollock Tilapia Pangasius Catfish All Seafood

Consumption per capita

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Shrimp Canned Tuna Salmon Pollock Tilapia Pangasius All Seafood

Consumption per capita

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Miles d e To nela da s

Rest of the World Ecuador

Colombia

Tanzania, United Rep. of Kenya

Viet Nam

Taiwan Province of China Nigeria Mexico Uganda Bangladesh Thailand Brazil Philippines Indonesia Egypt China

Producción Mundial de Tilapia

80 123 164 222 229 253 332 292 371 125 125 134 103 109 97 90 87 78 43 50 51 58 58 54 52 54 55 100 200 300 400 500 600 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millio n lb s.

Fresh Fillets Frozen Whole Frozen Fillets

Tilapia Imports to the U.S. by Commodity Type (Total), All origins

125 125 134 103 109 97 90 ₈₇ 78 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millio n lb s. Frozen Whole

Tilapia Imports to the U.S. Whole Fish-All origins

54,06 51,40 45,88 45,50 50,20 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Millio n lb s.

Imports of Frozen Whole Fish YTD (Jan – Jul)

China (mainland) 57,2% China (Taiwan) 39,8% Ecuador 0,2% Panama 0,1% Thailand 1,1% Malaysia 0,0% Hong Kong 0,2% Other 1,4%

YTD 2013

0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0

jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

Millio

n lb

s

2011 2012 2013 10-'12 avg.

Cyclical Behavior of Imports

$0,50 $1,00 $1,50 $2,00 $2,50 $3,00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2011 2012 2013

Avg. Retail Price, Whole Sale (Jan – Jul)

43 50 51 58 58 54 ₅₂ 54 55 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millio n lb s. Fresh Fillets

Tilapia Imports, Fresh Fillets to the U.S. (Total), All origins

Ecuador 32,4% Honduras 31,9% Costa Rica 21,3% Colombia 6,2% China (Taiwan) 2,2% Brazil 2,0% El Salvador 1,9% Other 2,0%

2008

2013

3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Millio

n lb

s

Adjusted '11 Adjusted '12 2013 '10 -''12 avg. 2008

Record year

Cyclical Monthly Imports, Fresh Fillets

$3,50 $3,60 $3,70 $3,80 $3,90 $4,00 $4,10 $4,20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2010 2011 2012 2013 '10-'12 avg

Cyclical Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Fresh Fillets

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 $3,50 $3,60 $3,70 $3,80 $3,90 $4,00 $4,10 $4,20

ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 jul-13

M

illo

ne

s

AVG UB Quotations Volume

Linear behavior, pricing and other factors, Fresh Fillets

Source: Urner Barry, CME, USDOC

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

ene-09 jul-09 ene-10 jul-10 ene-11 jul-11 ene-12 jul-12 ene-13 jul-13

80 123 164 222 229 253 332 292 371 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millio n lb s. Frozen Fillets

Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, All origins

China 88,6% Indonesia 8,2% Taiwan 1,1% Thailand 0,9% Malaysia 0,0% Other 1,1%

Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, By Origin

114,1 134,1 165,6 146,5 210,0 171,5 0 50 100 150 200 250 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Millio n lb s.

Tilapia Imports Frozen Fillets, YTD

$1,80 $1,95 $2,10 $2,25 $2,40 $2,55 J F M A M J J A S O N D 2013 2012 2011 '10-'12 avg

Cyclical Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Frozen Fillets

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 $1,25 $1,50 $1,75 $2,00 $2,25 $2,50 $2,75 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 M illio n lb s. $ pe r l b.

Volume *Import Value per lb. UB Pricing

*Total value reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce (imports' value of tilapia frozen fillets) divided by total pounds.

Linear Monthly AVG. UB Quotations, Frozen Fillets

$0,00 $1,00 $2,00 $3,00 $4,00 $5,00 $6,00 $7,00 $8,00 $9,00 $10,00

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Max Min Avg

Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb.

$3,00 $4,00 $5,00 $6,00 $7,00 $8,00 $9,00

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Max Min Avg

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 $0,00 $1,00 $2,00 $3,00 $4,00 $5,00 $6,00 $7,00 $8,00

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Avg Features

Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 $4,00 $4,50 $5,00 $5,50 $6,00 $6,50

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Avg Features

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Avg Ret $ AVG imp/lb AVG UB fr/fz 6 month Rolling Avg. Imp$/lb. 6 Month Rolling Avg UB (fr/fz)

Fresh/Frozen Tilapia Fillets, Retail $/lb.

Conclusiones

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Economía de EE.UU. y consumo en recuperación

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Desempleo tiene que mejorar para levanter

expectativas

Conclusiones

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Importante entender las diferentes etapas y precios en los

eslabones de distribución

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Precio de reemplazo de inventarios (C&F, no FOB)

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Precio FOB dentro de EE.UU. (Urner Barry)

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Precio Retail (al consumidor)

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Tienda de Autoservicio depende del costo de compra al

importador

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El importador depende del precio de compra del productor

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El productor depende de precios de materia prima para procesar

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El precio de la materia prima

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Alimento

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Clima

Conclusiones

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Consumo Per Capita de tilapia el más fuerte

crecimiento de todas las especies

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Dividir las materias primas de tilapia

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Filetes frescos

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Filetes congelados

Conclusiones

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Precios de reemplazo de producto muy de la

mano de los precios de Urner Barry

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Sin embargo, dependiendo de la oferta:

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Precios de compra y oferta varían

Gracias! Thank you! Obrigado!

Angel D. Rubio

Direct: 732-575-1982