Downlisted to Endangered

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Better knowledge for better management: Javan leopard is downlisted to Endangered

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1* WWF Tigers Alive Initiative, Phnom Penh, Cam- bodia

*<[email protected]>

2 Aaranyak, 13 Tayab Ali Byelane, Bishnu Rabha Path, Beltola Tinali-Bhetapara Link Road, Beltola, Guwahati, Assam, India

3 Association Anoulak, Lao PDR

4 Friends of Nature, Kathmandu, Nepal

5 S.P.E.C.I.E.S. - The Society for the Preservation of Endangered Carnivores and their Internatio- nal Ecological Study, Ventura, California, USA

6 Karen Wildlife Conservation Initiative, 10A Dunford St, Willagee, WA 6156, Australia

7 WCS Malaysia, Kuching, Malaysia

8 Conservation Ecology Program, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, 49 Thakham, Bangkhuntien, Bangkok 10150, Thailand

9 WildCRU, Zoology, University of Oxford, The Recanati-Kaplan Centre, Tubney House, Abin- gdon Road, Tubney, Abingdon, OX13 5QL, UK.

10 Panthera, New York, New York, United States of America

short communication

ERWIN WILIANTO^1*, DEDE AULIA RAHMAN^2,3, DESY SATYA CHANDRADEWI⁴, IRENE MARGA- RETH ROMARIA PINONDANG^3,5 AND HARIYO TABAH WIBISONO^1,6

Better knowledge for better management: Javan leopard is downlisted to Endangered

The latest assessment of the Javan leopard Panthera pardus melas for the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species^TM resulted on revised categorization of the species from Critically Endangered (CR) to Endangered (EN). This downlisting was defined based on better information and data quality about the geographical distribution, popula- tion size, and threats. However, this re-categorization of the status does not neces- sarily imply an improvement in population conditions and decreased threats, nor is it evidence of the conservation intervention success. This can also be seen from the fact, that the Javan leopard is very close to classify for Critically Endangered under criterion C2a(i) (small population size and decline, and small subpopulation size). We believe that the condition of the leopard in the wild is not yet viable and the level of threat is still at a concerning level. Therefore, it must be monitored and reassessed periodically, using new information as a basis for planning and implementing the necessary interventions.

The Red list of Threatened Species^TM is a plat- form developed by the IUCN, as a standard assessment tool used globally to document the risk of extinction of a taxon. The previous assessment by Ario et al. (2008), was relied only on mean leopard density in two national parks which was then extrapolated to a total area of 10 habitat patches considered as the geographic distributions. This assess-

ment defined the effective population size as the number of mature individuals equal to 50% of the island-wide estimated population.

Therefore, the number of mature individuals of Javan leopard was fewer than 250 individuals with no single subpopulation larger than 50 individ-uals. Given the data limitation, this calculation was acceptable as the best ap- proach; and therefore, the subspecies met the

category of Critically Endangered under criterion C2a(i).

The latest assessment was supported by larger datasets and robust analytical procedure from several studies. A total of 162 unique individuals were documented using came- ra traps from more than 42,000 trap-days, resulting in population density estimates in 9 landscapes. Wibisono et al (2018), provide a better understanding on the distribution of the Javan leopard habitat in 22 suitable landscapes (Fig. 2). Alongside the population density estimates, the distribution modeling helped us to estimate the current population status. Applying the precautionary principle, we used three criteria to estimate the island- wide population. First, we used the Hierarchi- cal Cluster Analysis to classify 13 landscapes with no density estimate, based on similari- ty in habitat characteristics. Second, within a cluster, we used the lowest existing density estimate associat-ed with the cluster to calculate the population size of a given landscape.

Third, we used only prime forest habitats, or 57% of the total suitable landscape area (i.e., Wibisono et al. 2018), as a proxy to calculate the island-wide effective population size of the Javan leopard. This resulted in an island- wide population size of 319 (188–571) mature individuals. This assessment also revealed that no single subpop-ulation had more than 50 individuals, except three national parks,

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namely Gunung Halimun Salak, Ujung Kulon, and Meru Betiri. Based on the most recent population viability analysis, even a landscape with 50 mature individuals has a probability of extinction of 53% (Traylor-Holzer 2020), which means that this subpopulation is not strong enough to be classified as viable.

Inhabiting the island of Java, one of the is- lands with the largest human density in the world, the Javan leopard continues to live under threat from habitat loss, poaching, and human-leopard conflicts. Between 2007 and 2019, an average of 4.6 Javan leopards were removed from their habitats due to poaching and ineffective human-leopard conflict reso- lution (Adhiasto 2020). The figure was pre- sumed to be the minimum number than the actual condition. Data on poaching and illegal trade in the Javan leopard mostly came from side findings of illegal trade investigations for other species such as Sumatran tigers, ele- phants, and birds.

Based on a more adequate data, robust analysis, and a better understanding of population size calculations, population dynamics, and geographic distribution, we reassessed the Javan leopard status using the IUCN Red List Assessment guidelines and defined that Javan leopard no longer meets the category of Critically Endangered. With more than 250 mature individuals as the population size but no subpopulations with more than 50 individuals, Javan leopard qualifies for Endan- gered under criterion C2a(i). In short, this change in status is not due to reduced major threat or more effective conservation actions;

instead, it is based on new information that became available since the last assessment.

Although this downlisting looks encouraging, it cannot be directly interpreted as a success- ful conservation effort. Moreover, research on Javan leopard and conservation efforts have not become a primary concern for resear- chers, conservation practitioners, and the gov- ernment. Therefore, it is critical to continue monitoring the status of Javan leopard subpopulations that are small, living in isolated habitat, and threatened by anthropogenic fac- tors, especially from possible reductions in ge- netic diversity.

We advise the relevant parties to continue collecting data and monitoring the condition of each subpopulation of Javan leopards and re- formulate the Java leopard conservation strategy and action plan, and translate it in- to specific management actions at the landscape level. The most important thing is to jointly safeguard Javan leopard conservation

by promoting resource mobilization so that it does not re-enter a higher level of threat of extinction.

References

Adhiasto D. N., Wilianto E. & Wibisono H. T. 2020.

Uncover the unrevealed data: the magnitude of Javan leopard removal from the wild. Cat News 71, 5–6.

Ario A., Sunarto S. & Sanderson J. 2008. Panthe- ra pardus ssp. melas. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2008: e.T15962A5334342.

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Traylor-Holzer K., Holst B., Leus K. & Ferraz K. 2020.

Conservation Planning Workshops for the Ja- van Leopard (Panthera pardus melas) Final Report. IUCN SSC Conservation Planning Spe- cialist Group, Apple Valley, MN.

Wibisono H. T., Wahyudi H. A., Wilianto E., Pinon- dang I. M. R., Primajati M., Liswanto D. & Lin- kie M. 2018. Identifying priority conservation landscapes and actions for the Critically Endan- gered Javan leopard in Indonesia: Conserving

the last large carnivore in Java Island. PLoS ONE 13(6): e0198369.

Wibisono H., Wilianto E., Pinondang I., Rahman D.

A. & Chandradewi D. 2021. Panthera pardus ssp. melas. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2021: e.T15962A50660931. https://

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1* SINTAS Indonesia, Jl. Arimbi I No. 7, Bantarjati, Bogor, West Java, Indonesia, 16153

*<[email protected]>

2 IPB University, Jl. Raya Dramaga, Bogor, West Java, Indonesia, 16680

3 Javan Leopard Conservation Forum, Jl. Taman Safari Indonesia, Cisarua Bogor 16750

4 Directorate of Biodiversity Conservation, Mi- nistry of Environment and Forestry, Manggala Wanabakti Buidling, Jl. Gatot Subroto, Jakarta, Indonesia

5 Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, University of Kent, United Kingdom

6 San Diego Zoo Institute for Conservation Re- search, San Diego, California, USA

Fig. 1. Male Javan leopard in Gunung Halimun Salak National Park, one of three viable habitats for Javan leopard, 2016 (Photo S. Mercusiana).

Fig. 2. Javan leopard suitable landscape (Wibisono et al 2018).

Javan leopard is downlisted to Endangered

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