Determinantes da oferta de crédito bancário: caso português

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Universidade de Aveiro

2012

Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial!

FILIPE SANTOS

PRIOR

DETERMINANTES DA OFERTA DE CRÉDITO

BANCÁRIO – CASO PORTUGUÊS

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Universidade de Aveiro 2012

Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial!

FILIPE SANTOS

PRIOR

DETERMINANTES DA OFERTA DE CRÉDITO

BANCÁRIO – CASO PORTUGUÊS

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Relatório de estágio apresentada à Universidade de Aveiro para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção de grau de Mestre em Economia, realizado sob a orientação científica da Doutora Aida Isabel Pereira Tavares, Professora Auxiliar do Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial da Universidade de Aveiro!

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Dedico este trabalho a todos aqueles, que de uma ou de outra forma, contribuiram para a sua realização.

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o júri

presidente Prof. Doutor Antonio Miguel Amoedo Lebre de Freitas,

Professor Auxiliar, Universidade de Aveiro

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Doutora Mara Teresa da Silva Madaleno,

Professora Auxiliar Convidada, Universidade de Aveiro!

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Prof. Doutora Aida Isabel Pereira Tavares,

Professora Auxiliar, Universidade de Aveiro!

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agradecimentos A realização deste trabalho marca o fim de uma importante etapa da minha vida. Gostaria de agradecer a todos aqueles que contribuíram de forma decisiva para a sua concretização.

À Professora Aida Tavares pela disponibilidade, colaboração, compreensão e capacidade de estímulo ao longo de todo o trabalho.

A toda a equipa do balcão de Vagos que me acompanharam no estágio e se demostraram sempre prestáveis.

Aos meus pais e irmãos pela confiança que depositaram em mim. À Inês pelo apoio, ajuda e carinho.

À Susana pela ajuda e partilha de conhecimento.

A todos os meus amigos e colegas de curso que me acompanharam nesta etapa.

Obrigado.

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palavras-chave Crédito bancário, sector privado, dados em painel, determinantes da oferta.

resumo O presente trabalho tem por base o estágio desenvolvido na Caixa de Crédito Agrícola e uma avaliação em painel dos principais determinantes da oferta do crédito bancário em Portugal.

O sector bancário tem-se demostrado muito importante para o

desenvolvimento da economia, pois permite a aquisição de financiamento de particulares e empresas, de modo a aumentar o poder de compra, o

investimento e o consumo. Uma atividade fundamental no sector bancário é a concessão de crédito, uma vez que esta tem uma grande influencia nos resultados obtidos pelo banco e veicula um elevado risco associado ao endividamento.

Neste trabalho pretendemos identificar as principais razões ligadas à concessão de crédito no sector privado não financeiro em Portugal, relacionando o que foi aprendido ao longo do estágio e tendo em conta o exemplo da Caixa de Crédito Agrícola. Considera-se uma análise em painel com o objectivo de identificar os determinantes de oferta de crédito.

Assim, realizamos numa primeira fase um estudo geral ao sector bancário e à concessão de crédito em Portugal, apontando alguns pontos que nos

pareceram fundamentais no estágio. Numa segunda fase estimamos um modelo com variáveis que representam diferentes factores que influenciam a oferta de crédito por parte das instituições bancárias. Verificamos que o activo total da instituição, o produto interno bruto, a margem das taxas de juro e o total depósitos bancários, tal como previsto, se apresentam significativos na oferta de crédito, sendo o seu comportamento na mesma direção da variável dependente.

É ainda importante mencionar que a análise é feita num período recente de tempo, por isso, os resultados refletem a crise dos últimos anos, o elevado nível da dívida e de incumprimento, que implica uma maior submissão do sector às mudanças vigentes no país.

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keywords Banking credit, private sector, painel data, determinants of supply

abstract "his report is based on work developed in Crédito Agrícola and a review in panel data of the main determinants of supply of bank credit in Portugal. The banking sector has demonstrated very important for economic development as it allows the acquisition of funding from individuals and companies, in order to increase the purchasing power, investment and consumption. A fundamental activity in the banking sector is the granting of credit, because this has a large influence on the results obtained by the bank and conveys a high risk associated with debt.

In this paper we intend to identify the main reasons for granting credit in non-financial private sector in Portugal, linking what has been learned over the past period in Crédito Agrícola. It is considered a review in panel in order to identify the determinants of credit supply.

Therefore, we initially study the overall banking and the granting credit in Portugal, pointing out some points which we felt crucial. In a second step we estimate a model with different variables that represent factors that influence the supply of credit by banks. We found that the total assets of the institution, the gross domestic product, margin interest rate and total deposits presents a significant influence in the credit supply, and its behavior is in the same direction as the dependent variable.

It is also important to mention that the analysis is made in a recent period of time and the results reflect the crisis of recent years, the high level of debt and default, which implies greater subjection sector to changes in force in the country.

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Referencias

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