Historia Económica Mundial: De los años setenta al presente

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Historia Económica Mundial:

De los años setenta al presente

Este curso corto ofrece una revisión de la historia económica mundial de las ultimas tres décadas – entre la caída del Sistema de Bretton Woods y la crisis del 2001 en la Argentina. Vamos a investigar tres niveles de la historia: (1) cambios de la economía mundial (el proceso de “globalización” a partir un sistema de tasas de cambio fijas y controles de cambio al principio de los años setenta); (2) cambios en la economía latinoamericana (desde el fin de modelo de industrialización por substitución de importaciones (ISI) hasta la crisis de la deuda, el boom del mercados emergentes y las crisis de finales de la década de los noventa); (3) el desarrollo económico de la Argentina y sus diferencias con el caso de Chile.

La lista de literatura por semana se divide en tres partes: (1) literatura básica que cada estudiante tiene que leer. Normalmente serán un par de capítulos de libros y unos artículos, alrededor de 200 paginas por semana; (2) literatura opcional para estudiantes que quieren profundizar un tema; (3) documentos históricos; no hace falta leer todos esos documentos en su totalidad pero sirven para entender el pensamiento económico de cada momento y ayudan a comprender las negociaciones económicas internacionales.

1ª Semana, 23 de Abril: El Sistema de Bretton Woods y el desarrollismo en América Latina Lectura Básica

Michael D. Bordo and Barry Eichengreen, A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods system:

lessons for international monetary reform, 1993

Harold James, International Monetary Cooperation since Bretton Woods, Oxford University Press, 1996, capitulos 6, 7

Barry Eichengreen, Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System, 1999, capitulo 4

William Easterly, The elusive quest for growth: economists' adventures and misadventures in the tropics, 2001

Bibliografía Opcional

Hirschman, Albert, “The Political Economy of Import Substituting Industrialization in Latin America”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 82, Issue 1, February 1968

Deepak Lal, The poverty of "development economics", 1985.

Documentos Históricos

Prebisch, Raúl Hacia una dinámica del desarrollo latinoamericano, Fondo de Cultura

Económica, 1963

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Semana, 30 de Abril: La crisis petrolera y las consecuencias para América Latina Lectura Básica

Harold James, International Monetary Cooperation since Bretton Woods, Oxford University Press, 1996, capitulo 8, 11

Taylor, Alan M “On the Costs of Inward-Looking Development: Price Distortions, Growth, and Divergence in Latin America,” The Journal of Economic History, Vol.

58(1), 1998

di Tella, Guido and Rudiger Dornbusch (eds.), The Political economy of Argentina, 1946- 83, 1989, capitulo 10-12

Pedro Aspe Armella, Rudiger Dornbusch, and Maurice Obstfeld, Financial policies and the world capital market: the problem of Latin American countries, 1983, capitulos 1, 9

Bibliografía Opcional

Krueger, Anne, “The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society”, American Economic Review Volume 64, Issue 3, June 1974

Calvo, Guillermo A. “Fractured Liberalism: Argentina under Martínez de Hoz”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Volume 34, Nr. 3, April 1984

Fernandez, Roque B. y Carlos A. Rodriguez, Inflación y estabilidad: El tipo de cambio como instrumento de estabilización. Ensayos sobre la experiencia argentina reciente, 1980.

Documentos Históricos

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Memorandum to the Executive Directors, “Implications of rising petroleum prices”, December 20, 1973

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, “Interim Report on the

additional external capital requirements of Developing countries to deal with the effects of the increased prices of oil and other commodities”, March 5, 1974

“An Analysis of Threats to the International Financial System”, November 13, 1976, Arthur F. Burns Papers, Gerald Ford Presidential Library, Ann Arbor, MI.

Office Correspondence, Henry S. Terrell to Mr. Truman, “Report on International Debt, the Banks, and U.S. Foreign Policy by Staff of Senate Subcommittee on Foreign

Economic Policy”, September 22, 1977

Memorandum, Jorge del Canto to the Acting Managing Director, “Argentina” March 10, 1976

Briefing for IMF Mission to Argentina, May 20, 1976, Source: IMF Archives, Washington, D.C.

Memorandum of the Government of Argentina on Certain Aspects of its economic

policy, July 1976

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3ª Semana, 7 de Mayo: La crisis de la deuda y la década perdida en América Latina en los años ochenta

Lectura Básica

James Boughton, Silent Revolution: The International Monetary Fund 1979-1989. 2001.

Eso es la historia oficial de Fondo Monetario. Está accesible en la página web.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/history/2001/, capítulos 6-12, enfoque especial en los casos de México y Argentina

Harold James, International Monetary Cooperation since Bretton Woods, Oxford University Press, 1996, capitulo 12

Dornbisch, Rudiger and Juan Carlos de Pablo, Deuda Externa e inestabilidad macroeconómica en la Argentina, capitulo 4

Carlos F. Diaz-Alejandro, “Latin American Debt: I Don't Think We are in Kansas Anymore”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1984, No. 2. (1984), pp. 335- 403.

Bibliografía Opcional

Karin Linssaker, Banks, Borrowers, and the Establishment: A Revisionist Account of the International Debt Crisis, 1991.

Krueger, Anne O. “Debt, Capital Flows, and LDC Growth”, The American Economic Review, Volume 77, Issue 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Ninety-Ninth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (May, 1987), 159- 164.

Edwards, Sebastian, and Alexandra Cox Edwards. Monetarism and Liberalization: The Chilean Experiment. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Ballinger Pubishing Company, 1987.

Documentos Históricos

The Group of Thirty, Outlook on International Bank Lending, 1981

Letter, Central Bank of the Argentine Republic to the International Monetary Fund, July 6, 1982

Remarks of David C. Mulford at the Shearson/American Express Symposium on Solutions to the International Debt Crisis, Boston, Massachusetts, June 20, 1984 Remarks by J. de Larosière to the Bretton Woods Committee, “The Role of the IMF in the Present International Scene”, January 22, 1986

Remarks by J. de Larosière before the Overseas Bankers Club, “Reinforcing the Debt

Strategy”, February 3, 1986

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4ª Semana, 14 de Mayo: El boom de la década de noventa: El consenso de Washington

¿Una ilusión?

Lectura Básica

Edwards, Sebastian Crisis and reform in Latin America: from despair to hope, 1995 Bruno, Michael Crisis, Stabilization, and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus, Oxford, 1993

Joseph E. Stiglitz, The roaring nineties: a new history of the world's most prosperous decade, 2003

Calvo, Guillermo and Carlos A. Vega, ”Inflation Stabilization and Nominal Anchors”, Contemporary Economic Policy, April 1994

Bibliografía Opcional

Erro, Davide G. Resolving the Argentine Paradox Politics and Development, 1966-1992, 1993

Documentos Históricos

Williamson, John, “What Washington Means by Policy Reform; Latin American adjustment: How much has happened?” 1990, pp. 5-20, Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics

World Bank, Argentina: From Insolvency to Growth, 1994

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5ª Semana, 21 de Mayo: Globalización y sus crisis: Las crisis financieras en México, Asia y Argentina

Lectura Básica

Giancarlo Corsetti, Nouriel Roubini, Paolo Pesenti, What caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis,

Michael Mussa, Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy, 2002

Bradford DeLong et al. “The Mexican Peso Crisis: In Defense of U.S. Policy toward Mexico”, Foreign Affairs, May-June 1996

Bibliografía Opcional

Maurice Obstfeld (1996): "Models of Currency Crisis with Self-Fulfilling Features", European Economic Review 40, 1037-1047.

Bhagwati, Jagdish (2000), The Wind of the Hundred Days: How Washington Mismanaged Globalization, HF 1455.B48 2000

PASTOR JR, MANUEL AND CAROL WISE “Stabilization and its Discontents:

Argentina's Economic Restructuring in the 1990s”, World Development Vol. 27, No. 3, pp. 477-503, 1999

Krugman, The Return of Depression Economics; 1999

Documentos Históricos

Meltzer Commission Final Report on the Reform of the IMF and the World Bank, http://www.house.gov/jec/imf/meltzer.htm

6ª Semana, 28 de Mayo: Examen Final