Perspectivas de los mercados financieros internacionales

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Perspectivas de los mercados financieros internacionales

Noviembre del 2013

Pascal Rohner, CFA, Investment Consultant, Credit Suisse Asesoria (Panama) S.A.

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Retornos de clases de activos en el 2012 y el 2013

Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC

20.3 10.8

6.2 5.5 5.4 4.2 -4.7

-7.2 -11.3

16.8 10.5

14.2 3.5

28.6 18.9

0.2

18.5 -1.1

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

MSCI World TR Index Swiss Re Cat Bond TR ML US High Yield index HFRX

GPR 250 REIT World TR Index

Barclays Global Aggregate BAA Index Barclays G7 Global Government Bond index JP Morgan EM Bond Index

DJ-UBS Commodity TR Index

YTD 2013 Performance in USD 2012 Performance in USD in %

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Estancamiento en el crecimiento de la economía global

Noviembre del 2013 Pascal Rohner, CFA, Investment Consultant, Credit Suisse Asesoria (Panama) S.A.

-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Emerging Markets Industrialized countries World GDP Growth

% YoY, PPP-weighted

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, IMF, Credit Suisse / IDC

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Indicadores líderes están fortaleciendo ej. índices de gestores de compra (“PMI”)

40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60

Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13

Eurozone China USA

Index

Contraction

Expansion

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC

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El crecimiento económico global se reforzará en el 2014

France 0.7%

Norway 2.5%

Italy 0.7%

Switzerland 2%

Sweden 2.2%

UK 2.2%

Germany 2%

Poland 2.6%

Russian Federation 2.5%

Canada 2.2%

USA 2.6%

Mexico 3.2%

Argentina 3%

Australia 2.4%

Brazil 2.5%

China 7.5%

India 5.5%

Indonesia 5.3%

Japan 1.5%

South Korea 3.5%

New Zealand 2.9%

South Africa 2.7%

Thailand 4.5%

Turkey 3.8%

Spain 0.6%

Singapore 3.8%

Hong Kong 3.6%

Less than -1 -1 to 0 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 6 6 to 8 Over 8

Latin America Global

G3 Eurozone BRIC EM-8

GCC

Non-Japan Asia

Middle East & Africa CEE & Russia 3.6%

1.9%

6.0%

5.8%

4.1%

6.2%

2.7%

3.1%

4.2%

1.2%

Source: listed forecasts Credit Suisse/ Global Research; other forecasts IMF

Global Real GDP Growth 2013: 2.9%

2014: 3.6%

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Inflacion sigue bajando en el primer mundo

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13

Asia CEE & Russia Latin America Middle East & Africa United States Eurozone

% YoY 3M-rolling, ppp-weighted

Source: Datatsream, Bloomberg, IMF, Credit Suisse / IDC

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La tasa de desempleo en EE.UU. esta cayendo

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0

50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 02 06 10

US unemployment rate; last value: 7.3 Average in %

Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC

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Final del mercado alcista de bonos que duró 30 años?

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Jan 85 Jan 89 Jan 93 Jan 97 Jan 01 Jan 05 Jan 09 Jan 13

10-year US Treasury Bond US Fed Fund Rate

%

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1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

ene 13

feb 13

mar 13

abr 13

may 13

jun 13

jul 13

ago 13

sep 13

oct 13

nov 13

Bernanke first mentions Tapering

FOMC Decision not to taper (yet) FOMC

Meeting FOMC

Meeting

IDC 9

Intereses del tesoro a 10 años en el 2013

Fuente: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC

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Bonos de mercados emergentes sufren cuando las tasas suben

180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280

Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13

CEMBI Moving Average (200D) Moving Average (50D) Moving Average (30D)

-12%

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El dólar se beneficia de la subida de tasas en EE.UU.

1' 700 1' 750 1' 800 1' 850 1' 900 1' 950 2' 000

Dec 11 Apr 12 Aug 12 Dec 12 Apr 13 Aug 13 Dec 13 Apr 14 Aug 14 USD/ COP FX forward Credit Suisse forecast

USD/ COP

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse, Credit Suisse / IDC

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Monedas locales vs. dólar en el 2013

6.0 2.3

0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -1.9 -2.0 -3.2 -4.5 -5.5 -6.1 -6.3 -7.8 -8.0 -8.9 -11.4

-12.1 -12.9 -15.7

-16.6 -18.0

-20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0 5.0 10.0

ARS ZAR IDR INR TRY BRL PEN CLP COP RUB PHP CZK MYR THB SGD TWD PLN HUF MXN HKD KRW CNY ILS

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0 200 400 600 800 1' 000 1' 200 1' 400 1' 600 1' 800 2' 000

Jan 98 Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12 Spread of Emerging Markets Bonds Spread of High Yield Bonds in bp

Preferimos «high yield» sobre «mercados

emergentes»

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Acciones has subido mucho desde Marzo 2009

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Nov 93 Nov 95 Nov 97 Nov 99 Nov 01 Nov 03 Nov 05 Nov 07 Nov 09 Nov 11 Nov 13 SMI DJ Euro Stoxx 50 Nikkei 225 S&P 500 MSCI World

Index (100 = 23 Sep 1990)

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Valoración no es excesiva

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Dow Jones Stoxx MSCI World S&P 500 MSCI Emerging Markets

12-month forward P/ E

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La transformación económica de China

Menos inversión y exportación, mas consumo

Share of global consumption

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2010 2015 2020 2025

US Japan Germany China India

Source: Credit Suisse / IDC

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Materias primas ya son atractivas para el 2014

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Jan 90 Jan 94 Jan 98 Jan 02 Jan 06 Jan 10

200 400 600 800 1' 000 1' 200 1' 400 1' 600 1' 800 2' 000

CRB Commodity Index Copper Price WT Oil Price Gold Price (rhs)

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Hedge Funds siguen siendo buenas alternativas

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Dec 93 Dec 95 Dec 97 Dec 99 Dec 01 Dec 03 Dec 05 Dec 07 Dec 09 Dec 11 Event drivenº Relative value¹ Directional² Tactical Trading³

9.9% 8.4%

9.5% 6.3%

8.9% 9.3%

6% 4.7%

CAGR* Risk**

*compound annual growth rate

**annualized volatility

Index

º Merger arbitrage, Distressed securities

¹ Convertible arbitrage, Market neutral, Fixed income arbitrage

² Equity long/ short, Emerging markets

³ Global macro, Managed futures

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Resumen

Renta Variable

Enfocar en acciones cíclicas

Acciones de Europa y Japón

Cuidado con mercados emergentes. Preferimos consumo vs.

mineras

Renta Fija

Mas volatilidad y menos retornos que en el pasado

Necesita gestión activa, p.ej. fondos mutuos flexibles (“Total Return”)

Preferimos “High Yield” e instrumentos híbridos (convertibles, bonos de bancos subordinados)

Inversiones Alternativas

Preferimos hedge funds (p.ej. equity long/short) y finca raíz

Pascal Rohner, CFA, Investment Consultant, Credit Suisse Asesoria (Panama) S.A. Noviembre del 2013

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Preguntas y Respuestas

Credit Suisse Asesoria (Panama) S.A. "Entidad Regulada y Supervisada por la Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores". Licencia para operar como Asesor de Inversiones.

Credit Suisse Asesoría (Panama) S.A. es una entidad autorizada a ser representada en Colombia a través de la Resolución número 2005 del 2009 de la Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia

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Asignación estratégica de activos y perfiles de riesgo

Fixed Income Income

Balanced Capital Gains

Source: Credit Suisse / IDC

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