Laura Dawidowski Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica Argentina

Laura Dawidowski

Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica

Argentina

International Conference Climate Services 4

Montevideo 9 to 11 of December 2014

¡  The research group of CNEA

§  Problems and solucions space

§  Our approach

¡  Asociations

§  Research cooperations (S-S)

▪  Example 1 - Natural sciences research

▪  Buenos Aires on road transport VOC emissions and humand health

▪  Example 2 - Natural sciences + social science research

▪  Air pollution impact on human healt : Buenos Aires(Argentina) and

Santiago (Chile)

SOLUTIONS SPACE Radiative forcing Carbon Cycle O₃ SO₄2- Vulnerability Climate change Other forcings Extreme events Mitigation Adaptation CO₂ Other GEI CO VOC NO_x Particles SO₂ NH₃

Technological and socioeconomic drivers

Production per capita, energy intensity, carbon intensity, population, gross domestic product , etc.

Strategies Technological development Changes in Lifestyle PROBLEMS SPACE

Transport

Models

Emissions

Air Quality Vulnerability

and adaptation

With the exception of Brasil, the earth sciences human reseources were scarse and isolated

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¡ 

Argentina: 2 (Nature science) +

1 (social science)

¡ 

Bolivia:

1

¡ 

Brasil:

2

¡ 

Colombia:

3

¡ 

Chile:

2 (nature science) +

1 (social science)

¡ 

Cuba:

1

On road vehicle

emissions and human

health effects

0

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

CO2

CH4

N2O

CO

NOX COVNMs MP

SO2

Emi

sio

ne

s a

nu

ale

s 2

00

6 (

Gg

)

of Natural Gas, in terms of GHGs reductions

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Flota CO2 eq CO2 CH4 N2O CO COVNMs NOX MP SO2

PE EU

PE: pre-euro vehicles (older) EU: euro (news)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2C (1 ) 3C (1 ) 4C (2 ) 5C (3 ) 6C (7 ) 7C (6 ) 8C (5 ) 9C (2 ) 10 C ( 2) 11 C ( 1) 12 C ( 1) > 13 C ( 1) 2C (2 ) 3C (3 ) 4C (5 ) 5C (3 ) 6C (2 ) 7C (1 ) 8C (2 ) 9C (2 ) 10 C ( 1) 1C (1 ) 2C (1 ) 3C (3 ) 4C (5 ) 5C (2 ) 6C (1 ) 7C (1 ) 8C (3 ) 6C (1 ) 7C (1 ) 8C (4 ) 9C (6 ) 10 C ( 1) 10 -1 2C (1 ) > 13 C ( 1) 10 C ( 1) 12 C ( 2) 13 C ( 1) 14 C ( 2) 16 C ( 2) 18 C ( 2) Ot ro s ( 1)

Parafinas HNS Oxigenados Aromáticos HAPs

Emi sió n d e C OV NM s ( % ) Diesel Nafta GNC

where,

PTH Human Potential Toxicity for specie i at time t, in terms of 1,4-DCB m_i= emission of specie i Huijbregts et al., 1999; 2001 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000.00 10,000.00 NOX _MP10 SO2_eteno 1,3-b utadien o forma ldehid o acrole ina bence no tolueno etilbe nceno m,p-xil eno o-xilen o estiren o antra ceno Po te nci al d e T ox ici da d Hu ma na (k g 1 ,4 D CB )

This LCA analysis considers particulate

matter undifferentiated as PM10 (particles size less than 10 µm).

It is well known, however, that there are many

important particle

properties, such as size, water solubility, chemical toxicity, which have

significant influence on the effects human health.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% VL N VL G VL D VP D Total To xici da d h uma na (mi les G g 1 ,4D CB ) To xici da d h uma na (% 1 ,4 DC B)

antraceno estireno o-xileno m,p-xileno etilbenceno

tolueno benceno acroleina formaldehido 1,3-butadieno

eteno SO2 MP NOX 1,4-DCB

Older vehiles (without control emission devices) are responsible of the 90% of the human health effects

The health impacts from mobile sources emissions from vehicles will be significantly reduced by increasing the controls on gasoline light duty vehicles.

These measures will be also beneficial for the use of biofuels

Estatistical analysis

between pollution

and human health

effects

RR para mortalidad total

por aumento de 1 ppm en el CO atmosférico

0.96 0.98 1 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.1 Bu e n o s Ai re s Sa n ti a g o Bo g o tá Bu e n o s Ai re s Sa n ti a g o Bo g o tá Bu e n o s Ai re s Sa n ti a g o Bo g o tá Bu e n o s Ai re s Sa n ti a g o Bo g o tá Bu e n o s Ai re s Sa n ti a g o Bo g o tá

Mismo día 1 día después Dos días después Tres días después Cuatro días después

Increase of mortality

Buenos Aires: 4% Santiago: 5%

RR para mortalidad total

por aumento de 1 ppb de Nox atmosférico

0.9996 0.9998 1 1.0002 1.0004 1.0006 1.0008 1.001 Bu e n o s Ai re s Sa n ti a g o Bo g o tá Bu e n o s Ai re s Sa n ti a g o Bo g o tá Bu e n o s Ai re s Sa n ti a g o Bo g o tá Bu e n o s Ai re s Sa n ti a g o Bo g o tá Bu e n o s Ai re s Sa n ti a g o Bo g o tá

Mismo día 1 día después Dos días después Tres días después Cuatro días después

Nox impacts are lower than CO impacts

The effects of Nox on the respiratory system are not enought high to provoque the death.

In Santiago there are 0,4 - 1% more

cardiovascular deaths than in Buenos Aires y Santiago due to an increase of 10 ppb of NOx

The difference between cities may be due to the presence of other stresses such as the synergy with other pollutants co-present in Santiago’s atmosphere, like breathable particulate matter whose concentration is 3 times higher than in Buenos Aires, which can promote a greater susceptibility to particular stressors

Questions _Research  

Science and technolgy

Decision makers

¡  Air pollution modelling protocol for EIAs

/ Stack gas measurement

guidelines -

¡  Emisison inventory for the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (IAI project)

Used as reference information for the environmental authorities of de city - Clean Air Initiative

¡  Studies for Natinal Communications of Argentina to the UNFCCC

Preguntas _{Inves,gación}  

Toma de decisión

Resultados

The incorporation of the scientific knowledge (C + T) in the

process of decision making is a complex challenge

Limited disclosure of science and technology research results Absence of

incentives to use the science and technology research results in decision making

institutional channels for the incorporation of these results Stress between

Long term research objectives vs. Short term policy needs

Research results suitable to be published in high impact research journals

vs. The need to have relevant local