Snowpack assessment and avalanche forecasting tools

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VÍCTOR MANUEL PALACIOS FERMOSO

Tutor: GERARDO SANZ

TECHNIQUES OF SNOWPACK ASSESSMENT AND AVALANCHES

OPERATIONAL WEATHER PREDICTION TOOLS

VALIDATION OF SNOWPACK ASSESSMENT SIMULATION MODELS

16

TH TH TH TH PROJECTPROJECTPROJECTPROJECT

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AVALANCHE PREDICTION IMPROVEMENT

Fellowship activities

Nivology and avalanches training

Collaboration on:

• improvement of available information

for operative forecast

• development and validation of

snowpack simulation model

Monitoring and checking of avalanches operative prediction tools

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1. Avalanches and mountain theoretical training; information,

bibliography and Aemet territorial office in Aragón staff.

2. Practical training: avalanche and meteorological observers course

Fellowship activities

Monitoring and checking of avalanch operative prediction tools

Analysis of observation data quality

Collaboration on:

• improvement of available information for operative forecast

• development and validation of snowpack simulation model

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1.

1. 1. Avalanche and mountain theoretical training; information, biblio

Avalanche and mountain theoretical training; information, biblio

Avalanche and mountain theoretical training; information, bibliography and

graphy and

Aemet territorial office in Arag

Aemet territorial office in Aragó

ó

ón staff.

n staff.

•

Snow formation and evolution . Grain types

•

Evaluation of avalanche release danger

TRAINING

Fragmented part.

Fresh snow Graupel Surface hoar Faceted crystals Deep hoar

Goblets

ACCIDENTES POR ALUD DE PLACA EN FUNCIÓN DE LA PENDIENTE

( D E 8 0 9 A LUD E S P O R D E S E N C A D E N A M IE N T O H UM A N O E N C A N A D Á Y S UIZ A )

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

0 10 20 25 30 31 36 38 42 45 48 51 55 60 65 70 80

PENDIENTE DE LA LADERA (º)

N

Ú

M

E

R

O

D

E

A

L

U

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•

Snow measurements: data and its format

–

Nivomet

Nivomet reports

reports

reports ---- Nivomet

Nivomet

Nivomet Key:

Key: 219//

Key:

219//

20000 10220 29040 70000

…

…....

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• Avalanche and meteorological observers course (

Avalanche and meteorological observers course (

Avalanche and meteorological observers course (Benasque

Avalanche and meteorological observers course (

Benasque

Benasque, January 31st

, January 31st –

, January 31st

–

– February

February

3rd 2012).

2. Practical training

TRAINING

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1. Available software for the management and running of snow

observation data in the operative enviroment.

2. Evaluation of use possibilities and adaptation to Aemet needs.

Fellowship activities

Nivology and avalanches training

Monitoring and checking of avalanch operative prediction tools

Collaboration on:

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1. Available software for the management and running of snow obs

1. Available software for the management and running of snow observation data in the

ervation data in the

operative environment

• Canada

• Paid

• xml format

• EE.UU.

• Free software

• xlm and gml format • Italy

• Free software

• mdb format

AVALANCH OPERATIVE PREDICTION TOOLS

• Assessment of software possibilities of generating standard form

Assessment of software possibilities of generating standard form

Assessment of software possibilities of generating standard format data.

Assessment of software possibilities of generating standard form

at data.

• Warehousing and exchange formats for snowpack measurements data:

Warehousing and exchange formats for snowpack measurements data:

Warehousing and exchange formats for snowpack measurements data: snow pit and

Warehousing and exchange formats for snowpack measurements data:

snow pit and

stability test.

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2. Evaluation of use possibilities and adaptation to

2. Evaluation of use possibilities and adaptation to Aemet

Aemet

Aemet needs

Aemet

needs

Software YETI ( AINEVA

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-AVALANCH OPERATIVE PREDICTION TOOLS

AVALANCH OPERATIVE PREDICTION TOOLS

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Fellowship activities

Nivology training

Collaboration on:

• development and validation of snowpack simulation model

OBSERVATION DATA

Snow episodes database.

Snow episodes database.Snow episodes database.

Snow episodes database. NIMET data. NIMET data. NIMET data.

NIMET data. Snow profile databaseSnow profile databaseSnow profile databaseSnow profile database Danger level compilationDanger level compilationDanger level compilationDanger level compilation

Monitoring and checking of avalanche operative prediction tools

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1. Monitoring of the most important snow episodes in the Aragonese

and Navarre Pyrenees. Creation of database.

2. Revision and checking of the NIMET reports data provided by the

mountain shelters and ski resorts.

Snow episodes database. Snow episodes database.Snow episodes database. Snow episodes database.

NIMET data. NIMET data. NIMET data.

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1. Monitoring of the most important snow episodes in the

1. Monitoring of the most important snow episodes in the Aragonese

Aragonese

Aragonese and Navarre

and Navarre

Pyrenees.

OBSERVATION DATA

• Creation of a relevant snow episodes database to: Creation of a relevant snow episodes database to: Creation of a relevant snow episodes database to: Creation of a relevant snow episodes database to:

o making seasonal reports editing easier. making seasonal reports editing easier. making seasonal reports editing easier. making seasonal reports editing easier.

o providing study cases and patterns identification by technical sproviding study cases and patterns identification by technical sproviding study cases and patterns identification by technical sproviding study cases and patterns identification by technical staff.taff.taff.taff.

• Prediction support as snow and meteorological episodes database Prediction support as snow and meteorological episodes database Prediction support as snow and meteorological episodes database Prediction support as snow and meteorological episodes database to providing information about the to providing information about the to providing information about the to providing information about the snowpack evolution from the beginning of the season.

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2. Revision and checking of the NIMET reports data provided by t

2. Revision and checking of the NIMET reports data provided by the mountain shelters and

he mountain shelters and

ski resorts.

• Variables evolution graphs: snowpack Variables evolution graphs: snowpack Variables evolution graphs: snowpack Variables evolution graphs: snowpack assessment

assessment assessment assessment

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1. Generation of the stratigraphic profile from the snow pits of the

current season.

2. Study of the data from the snow profiles of this season and previous

ones.

3. Collaboration with the Pyrenaic Institute of Ecology of the University of

Zaragoza (planned).

Snow episodes database. Snow episodes database. Snow episodes database. Snow episodes database.

NIMET data NIMET data NIMET data

NIMET data Snow profile databaseSnow profile databaseSnow profile databaseSnow profile database Danger level compilationDanger level compilationDanger level compilationDanger level compilation

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1. Generation of the

1. Generation of the stratigraphic

stratigraphic

stratigraphic profile from the snow pits of the current season

profile from the snow pits of the current season

Weekly reception of the snow Weekly reception of the snow Weekly reception of the snow Weekly reception of the snow pits made in the mountain pits made in the mountain pits made in the mountain pits made in the mountain shelters and ski resorts shelters and ski resorts shelters and ski resorts shelters and ski resorts

Generation of the Generation of the Generation of the Generation of the stratigraphicstratigraphicstratigraphicstratigraphic profile in an Excel spreadsheet profile in an Excel spreadsheet profile in an Excel spreadsheet profile in an Excel spreadsheet

Participation in the study of the Participation in the study of the Participation in the study of the Participation in the study of the snowpack stability as support in snowpack stability as support in snowpack stability as support in snowpack stability as support in the forecast of avalanches danger the forecast of avalanches danger the forecast of avalanches danger the forecast of avalanches danger level

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2. Study of the data from the snow profiles of this season and p

2. Study of the data from the snow profiles of this season and previous ones.

revious ones.

• Warehousing in a database. Future integration in the national daWarehousing in a database. Future integration in the national daWarehousing in a database. Future integration in the national daWarehousing in a database. Future integration in the national database. tabase. tabase. tabase.

• Study, applied to the Pyrenees, of the relationships between theStudy, applied to the Pyrenees, of the relationships between theStudy, applied to the Pyrenees, of the relationships between theStudy, applied to the Pyrenees, of the relationships between the analizedanalizedanalizedanalized variables and the crystal variables and the crystal variables and the crystal variables and the crystal typology of the snowpack:

typology of the snowpack: typology of the snowpack:

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• AppearenceAppearenceAppearence frecuencyAppearencefrecuencyfrecuencyfrecuency of grain types in the snowpack. Distribution by months, slope oof grain types in the snowpack. Distribution by months, slope oof grain types in the snowpack. Distribution by months, slope orientation, of grain types in the snowpack. Distribution by months, slope orientation, rientation, rientation, steepness and altitude levels.

steepness and altitude levels. steepness and altitude levels. steepness and altitude levels.

Climatology of the temperature, resistance and density profiles. Climatology of the temperature, resistance and density profiles.Climatology of the temperature, resistance and density profiles. Climatology of the temperature, resistance and density profiles.

1 6

44

26

9 28

24

1 ₀

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

+ _λ _● _□ _Λ _○ _▬ V

Number of observations of crystal grain type in the Aragonese Pyrenees profiles (current season)

1% 4%

32%

19%

6% 20%

17%

1% 0%

Proportion of snowpack crystal grain type

in the Aragonese and Navarre Pyrenee

(current season)

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1. Compilation and analisys of the issued danger levels for the Aragonese

and Navarre Pyrenees in the period 2000-2010.

2. Checking of the darnger levels issued in the last season and the

current one.

Snow episodes database. Snow episodes database. Snow episodes database. Snow episodes database.

NIMET data NIMET data NIMET data

NIMET data Snow profile databaseSnow profile databaseSnow profile databaseSnow profile database Danger level compilationDanger level compilationDanger level compilationDanger level compilation

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1. Compilation and analysis of the issued danger levels for the

1. Compilation and analysis of the issued danger levels for the Aragonese

Aragonese

Aragonese and Navarre

Aragonese

and Navarre

Pyrenees in the period 2000

Pyrenees in the period 2000-

-

-2010.

2010.

• Database Database Database Database ““““NimetNimetNimetNimet””””, which was running until 2007., which was running until 2007., which was running until 2007., which was running until 2007. • Occurrence statistics since 2000. Occurrence statistics since 2000. Occurrence statistics since 2000. Occurrence statistics since 2000.

• Possible participation in the program of issued danger levels cPossible participation in the program of issued danger levels cPossible participation in the program of issued danger levels cPossible participation in the program of issued danger levels comparison between neighbouring omparison between neighbouring omparison between neighbouring omparison between neighbouring countries, which was proposed by

countries, which was proposed by countries, which was proposed by

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2. Checking of the

2. Checking of the darnger

darnger

darnger levels issued in the last season and the current one.

levels issued in the last season and the current one.

0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 0 7 /1 1 /2 0 1 0 1 2 /1 1 /2 0 1 0 1 7 /1 1 /2 0 1 0 2 2 /1 1 /2 0 1 0 2 7 /1 1 /2 0 1 0 0 2 /1 2 /2 0 1 0 0 7 /1 2 /2 0 1 0 1 2 /1 2 /2 0 1 0 1 7 /1 2 /2 0 1 0 2 2 /1 2 /2 0 1 0 2 7 /1 2 /2 0 1 0 0 1 /0 1 /2 0 1 1 0 6 /0 1 /2 0 1 1 1 1 /0 1 /2 0 1 1 1 6 /0 1 /2 0 1 1 2 1 /0 1 /2 0 1 1 2 6 /0 1 /2 0 1 1 3 1 /0 1 /2 0 1 1 0 5 /0 2 /2 0 1 1 1 0 /0 2 /2 0 1 1 1 5 /0 2 /2 0 1 1 2 0 /0 2 /2 0 1 1 2 5 /0 2 /2 0 1 1 0 2 /0 3 /2 0 1 1 0 7 /0 3 /2 0 1 1 1 2 /0 3 /2 0 1 1 1 7 /0 3 /2 0 1 1 2 2 /0 3 /2 0 1 1 2 7 /0 3 /2 0 1 1 0 1 /0 4 /2 0 1 1 0 6 /0 4 /2 0 1 1 1 1 /0 4 /2 0 1 1 1 6 /0 4 /2 0 1 1 2 1 /0 4 /2 0 1 1 2 6 /0 4 /2 0 1 1 0 1 /0 5 /2 0 1 1 0 6 /0 5 /2 0 1 1 1 1 /0 5 /2 0 1 1 D a n g e r le v e l Date

Average danger forecast in the Western Pyrenees 2009/1010

Max Min Promedio

• Checking of the concordance between issued danger levels and obsChecking of the concordance between issued danger levels and obsChecking of the concordance between issued danger levels and obsChecking of the concordance between issued danger levels and observed danger levels. erved danger levels. erved danger levels. erved danger levels.

• Tool for valuing the importance of problems like feedback betweeTool for valuing the importance of problems like feedback betweeTool for valuing the importance of problems like feedback betweeTool for valuing the importance of problems like feedback between guides and avalanche forecasters n guides and avalanche forecasters n guides and avalanche forecasters n guides and avalanche forecasters or

or or

or overpredictionsoverpredictionsoverpredictions. (some cases detected in previous seasons)overpredictions. (some cases detected in previous seasons). (some cases detected in previous seasons). (some cases detected in previous seasons)

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• Statistics of observed danger levels. Statistics of observed danger levels. Statistics of observed danger levels. Statistics of observed danger levels. 55 29 69 25 77 18 32 33 14 49 52 34 39 36 13 17 37 53 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 d a y s shelter/ski resort Danger level 3-consederable

N ivel de peligro 4-fuerte 7 0 33 0 25 0 8 2 6 21 9 16 11 14 8 3 7 6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 ARR A ARR A

NTALNTALNTALNTALLizaraFurc o

nchúiedra Lago

s musoGórizPinet

a Cerle

r clusa

A.Orú s Estós

n

º

d

ías

Nivel de peligro 1-débil 35 70 0 55 0 55 51 12 5 22 0 2627 17 0 40 37 28 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

VARR A VARR

A ENTA L ENTA L IEN TAL IEN TAL LizaraFurc

o danchú

a Piedra

Lago s pom

uso Góriz

Pinet a Cerle r encl usa A.OrúsEstós

n

º

d

ía

s

RESPOM USO 2010/2011 (SUR 2180m )

18% 46% 24% 11% 1% 1-débil 2-limitado 3-moderado 4-f uerte 5-muy f uerte

PINETA 2010/2011 (Fondo valle 1200m )

16% 36% 34% 13% 1% 1-débil 2-limitado 3-moderado 4-f uerte 5-muy f uerte

PIRINEO NAVARRO 2010/2011 nive l de pe ligro m áxim o

23% 36% 36% 5% 0% 1-débil 2-limitado 3-moderado 4-f uerte

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THANK YOU

FOR YOUR ATTENTION

Photos: internal source

Bibliography pics:“3x3 Avalanchas. La gestión del riesgo en los deportes de invierno” – Werner Munter, Desnivel Ediciones ¡Avalancha!” – Robert Bolognesi, Desnivel Ediciones