The COVID-19 impact on Consumption
in Real Time and High Definition
A Big Data BBVA Research Project
Monthly presentation September 4th, 2020
Positive growth in USA, Turkey, Mexico, Peru and Argentina. Spain registered negative growth rates at the end of August, while Colombia continued stagnant
Source: BBVA Research. * Proxied by USA Sunbelt
Spending at BBVA POS by BBVA and non-BBVA customers plus spending by BBVA customers at non-BBVA POS. This data considers final expenditures, so not intermediate consumption is included. Therefore, the correspondence with national accounts household consumption is not fully equivalent. More detail about the data could be found in the following link.
BBVA RESEARCH BIG DATA CONSUMPTION INDICES
(Total consumption by card, % YoY, 7D cumulative)
-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50%
6-J
an
20
-J
an
3-F
eb
17
-F
e
b
2-M
ar
1
6
-M
a
r
30
-M
ar
13
-A
pr
27
-A
pr
11
-M
ay
25
-M
ay
8-J
un
22
-J
un
6
-J
u
l
20
-J
ul
3-A
ug
17
-A
ug
31
-A
ug
Spain Turkey Mexico USA*
-30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70%
-70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50%
6-J
an
20
-J
an
3
-Feb
17
-F
e
b
2-M
ar
16
-M
ar
30
-M
ar
13
-A
pr
27
-A
pr
11
-M
ay
2
5
-M
a
y
8-J
un
22
-J
un
6-J
ul
20
-J
ul
3-A
ug
17
-A
ug
31
-A
ug
Colombia Peru Argentina (right) Hot Sale Days
Consumption Diffusion Heat Map: August led some recovery by sector of activity in Peru, USA, Turkey and Spain
BBVA RESEARCH BIG DATA CONSUMPTION HEAT MAP (YoY, 7D cumulative)
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Series are coloured according to the history of each series since March 20 until the end of the series. The darker blue represents the lower 90% percentile and the lighter one represents the upper 10% percentile. *Proxied by USA Sunbelt. Source: BBVA Research.
*
# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 # 11 # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 # 11 # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 # 11 # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 # 11 # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 # 11 # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #
JUL
Restaurants
MAY
Total consumption
Spain Turkey
APR JUN AUG
MAR
Hotels Mexico
USA* Colombia
Peru Argentina
Entertainment Food Health Transport
Health Transport
Restaurants Hotels
Food Restaurants
Hotels Hotels Food Health Transport Restaurants Entertainment
Hotels Food Health Transport
Health Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment
Restaurants Entertainment
Transport Restaurants
Food Health Transport Restaurants Entertainment
Hotels Food Health Transport
Hotels Food
BBVA RESEARCH BIG DATA CONSUMPTION INDICES
(Consumption by card, % YoY, 7D cumulative)
The recovery is uneven across sectors and countries. The catching up in restaurants of USA and Europe stands out…
TRANSPORT
Source: BBVA Research. * USA = Proxied by USA Sunbelt
RESTAURANTS -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 6 -J a n 2 0 -J a n 3 -Feb 1 7 -Feb 2 -M a r 1 6 -Mar 3 0 -Mar 1 3 -A p r 2 7 -A p r 1 1 -May 2 5
-May 8-J
u n 2 2 -J u n 6 -J u l 2 0 -J u l 3 -A u g 1 7 -A u g 3 1 -A u g Spain Turkey Mexico USA* -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 6 -J a n 2 0 -J a n 3 -Feb 1 7 -Feb 2 -Mar 1 6 -Mar 3 0 -Mar 1 3 -A p r 2 7 -A p r 1 1 -May 2 5
-May 8-J
u n 2 2 -J u n 6 -J u l 2 0 -J u l 3 -A u g 1 7 -A u g 3 1 -A u g Colombia Peru Argentina (right) -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 6 -J a n 2 0 -J a n 3 -Feb 1 7
-Feb 2-Mar
1 6 -Mar 3 0 -Mar 1 3 -A p r 2 7 -A p r 1 1 -May 2 5
-May 8-J
u n 2 2 -J u n 6 -J u l 2 0 -J u l 3 -A u g 1 7 -A u g 3 1 -A u g Spain Turkey Mexico USA* -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 6 -J a n 2 0 -J a n 3 -Feb 1 7 -Feb 2 -Mar 1 6 -Mar 3 0 -Mar 1 3 -A p r 2 7 -A p r 1 1 -May 2 5
-May 8-J
u n 2 2 -J u n 6 -J u l 2 0 -J u l 3 -A u g 1 7 -A u g 3 1 -A u g Colombia Peru Argentina (right)
BBVA RESEARCH BIG DATA CONSUMPTION INDICES
(Consumption by card, % YoY, 7D cumulative)
… However, it was not so clear in the case of hotels and entertainment, where growth rates are still in negative values for all countries
ENTERTAINMENT
Source: BBVA Research. * USA = Proxied by USA Sunbelt. *Colombia: Monthly payments of clubs explain the volatility in the series with peaks at the end of the month
HOTELS -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 6 -J a n 2 0 -J a n 3 -Feb 1 7 -Feb 2 -Mar 1 6 -M a r 3 0 -M a r 1 3 -A p r 2 7 -A p r 1 1 -May 2 5
-May 8-J
u n 2 2 -J u n 6 -J u l 2 0 -J u l 3 -A u g 1 7 -A u g 3 1 -A u g Spain Turkey Mexico USA* -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 6 -J a n 2 0 -J a n 3 -Feb 1 7 -Feb 2 -Mar 1 6 -Mar 3 0 -Mar 1 3 -A p r 2 7 -A p r 1 1 -May 2 5
-May 8-J
u n 2 2 -J u n 6 -J u l 2 0 -J u l 3 -A u g 1 7 -A u g 3 1 -A u g Colombia Peru Argentina (right) -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 6 -J a n 2 0 -J a n 3 -Feb 1 7
-Feb 2-Mar
1 6 -M a r 3 0 -M a r 1 3 -A p r 2 7 -A p r 1 1 -May 2 5
-May 8-J
u n 2 2 -J u n 6 -J u l 2 0 -J u l 3 -A u g 1 7 -A u g 3 1 -A u g Spain Turkey Mexico USA* -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 6 -J a n 2 0 -J a n 3 -Feb 1 7 -Feb 2 -M a r 1 6 -Mar 3 0 -Mar 1 3 -A p r 2 7 -A p r 1 1 -May 2 5
-May 8-J
u n 2 2 -J u n 6 -J u l 2 0 -J u l 3 -A u g 1 7 -A u g 3 1 -A u g Colombia* Peru Argentina (right)
Source: BBVA Research. * USA = Proxied by USA Sunbelt.
COLOMBIA
TURKEY USA*
SPAIN MEXICO PERU
Technology matters: the gap between e-commerce growth and
physical purchases remained. Online sales are increasing in all the countries, expect in Spain given the importance of travel expenditures
BBVA RESEARCH BIG DATA CONSUMPTION INDICES: PHYSICAL VS ONLINE
The use of cash increased more than card payments in Turkey and Argentina. The opposite happened for Spain, Colombia and Peru
BBVA RESEARCH BIG DATA CONSUMPTION INDICES: CARD PURCHASES VS ATM WITHDRAWALS
(Total consumption by Point of Sales. % YoY, 7D cumulative)
Source: BBVA Research. * USA = Proxied by USA Sunbelt.
ARGENTINA
TURKEY PERU
Topic of the week: No big differences in card consumption patterns during August compared with July
BBVA RESEARCH BIG DATA CONSUMPTION INDICES: TOTAL CONSUMPTION EVOLUTION IN AUGUST AND
SECTORIAL DISTRIBUTION* DURING THE MONTH (Bar chart: % YoY by week and month. Pie chart: % YoY by sector in August)
- 15% 3% 1% 7% 13% 20% 32%
*It should be take into account there are other categories of consumption not considered in the pie chart, so the total consumption is not equal to the average of the components of the chart Source: BBVA Research. * USA = Proxied by USA Sunbelt
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Colombia Mexico Spain Peru USA* Turkey Argentina
Topic of the week: Spain. The recovery slowed among national consumers. Foreign expenditure is still stagnant
SPAIN: AVERAGE EXPENDITURE BY SECTOR
(% YoY, 7D cumulative)
Source: BBVA Research
NATIONAL FOREIGN
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
02
-F
e
b
16
-F
e
b
02
-M
ar
16
-M
ar
30
-M
ar
13
-A
pr
27
-A
pr
11
-M
ay
25
-M
ay
08
-J
un
22
-J
un
06
-J
ul
20
-J
ul
03
-A
ug
1
7
-A
u
g
31
-A
ug
Bars & Restaurants Wellness and beauty Sports and toys Fashion
Transport Leisure & Entertainment Accomodation Travel agencies
Total
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
2-F
eb
16
-F
e
b
2-M
ar
16
-M
ar
30
-M
ar
13
-A
pr
2
7
-A
p
r
11
-M
ay
25
-M
ay
8
-J
u
n
22
-J
un
6-J
ul
20
-J
ul
3-A
ug
17
-A
ug
31
-A
ug
Bars & Restaurants Fashion
Transport Accomodation
Food Other services
SPAIN: TOTAL AVERAGE WEEKLY EXPENDITURE BY PROVINCE*
(Considering national and foreign cards and physical and online purchases . % YoY, 7D cumulative)
25-31 AUG EXPENDITURE (% YOY)
Topic of the week: Spain. 43/50 provinces are growing despite the stagnation of foreign expenditure
Series are coloured according to the history of each series. The darker blue represents the upper 90% percentile and the lighter one represents the lower 10% percentile. Expenditure by BBVA client and other Spanish cards registered in TPV BBVA
Lower Growth Higher Growth
Topic of the Week: Turkish consumption continued growing, specially because of health and food expenditures. Investment registered
positive growth rates too
TURKEY: GARANTI BBVA BIG DATA CONSUMPTION
ITEMS (% YOY, 7D CUMULATIVE)
Source: BBVA Research Turkey
TURKEY: GARANTI BIG DATA DAILY INVESTMENT
INDEX (% YoY, 7D cumulative)
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
1-M
ar
15
-M
ar
29
-M
ar
1
2
-A
p
r
26
-A
pr
10
-M
ay
24
-M
ay
7-J
un
21
-J
un
5-J
ul
19
-J
ul
2-A
ug
16
-A
ug
30
-A
ug
Total Investment Construction Machinery -100%
-50% 0% 50% 100%
1-M
ar
15
-M
ar
29
-M
ar
12
-A
pr
26
-A
pr
10
-M
ay
24
-M
ay
7-J
un
21
-J
un
5-J
ul
19
-J
ul
2-A
ug
16
-A
ug
30
-A
ug
Airlines Hotels
Health inc. Services Food Total Consumption
The COVID-19 impact on Consumption
in Real Time and High Definition
A Big Data BBVA Research Project
Monthly presentation September 4th, 2020
