Disponibilidad futura de los
recursos hídricos frente a
escenarios de cambio climático
en Chile
Este documento fue preparado por Ximena Vargas, con la colaboración de Álvaro Ayala, Rodrigo Meza y Eduardo
Rubio. Forma parte de lo estudios sectoriales realizados en el marco del Estudio Regional de la Economía del
Cambio Climático (ERCC) en América Latina y el Caribe- inicativa encabezada por la Comisión Económica para
América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) - , en particular, del estudio de la economía del cambio climático en Chile,
realizado bajo la coordinación de Sebastián Vicuña a nivel nacional y de Joseluis Samaniego, Director de la
División de Desarrollo Sostenible y Asentamientos Humanos de la CEPAL, con la colaboración de Carlos de
Miguel, Luis Miguel Galindo y Karina Martínez. El ERECC contó con el apoyo financiero de los Gobiernos de
Alemania, Dinamarca, España y el Reino Unido, así como de la Unión Europea y el Banco Interamericano de
Desarrollo (BID).
Las opiniones expresadas en este documento, que no ha sido sometido a revisión editorial, son de exclusiva
responsabilidad de los autores y pueden no coincidir con las de la organización.
Las denominaciones empleadas en los mapas de esta publicación y la forma en que aparecen presentados los
datos que contienen no implican, de parte de la Secretaría de las Naciones Unidas, juicio alguno sobre la
condición jurídica de países, territorios, ciudades o zonas, o de sus autoridades, ni respecto de la delimitación de
sus fronteras o límites.
Publicación de las Naciones Unidas ISSN 1564-4189
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CUADRO 16 VALORES PROMEDIOS MENSUALES DE METEOROLOGÍA Y CAUDALES
EN EL PERÍODO DE LÍNEA BASE (1976-2000), LAS GARZAS-CLARO ... 59
CUADRO 17 VALORES PROMEDIOS MENSUALES DE METEOROLOGÍAY CAUDALES
EN EL PERÍODO DE LÍNEA BASE (1976-2000), LAGUNA LA INVERNADA ... 61
CUADRO 18 VALORES PROMEDIOS MENSUALES DE METEOROLOGÍA Y CAUDALES
EN EL PERÍODO DE LÍNEA BASE (1976-2000), AFLUENTE LAGUNA
DEL MAULE ... 62
CUADRO 19 VALORES PROMEDIOS MENSUALES DE METEOROLOGÍA Y CAUDALES
EN EL PERÍODO DE LÍNEA BASE (1976-2000),
AFLUENTE A EMBALSE MELADO ... 64
CUADRO 20 VALORES PROMEDIO MENSUALES DE METEOROLOGÍA EN EL PERÍODO
DE LÍNEA BASE (1970-2000), ESTACIÓN BASE ... 66
CUADRO 21 VALORES PROMEDIOS MENSUALES DE METEOROLOGÍA Y CAUDALES EN
EL PERÍODO DE LÍNEA BASE (1970-2000), AFLUENTE A LA LAGUNA LAJA 66
CUADRO A.2 PRECIPITACIONES OBSERVADAS, ESTACIÓN ARMERILLO ... 106
CUADRO A.3 PRECIPITACIONES LÍNEA BASE, ESTACIÓN BASE, ESCENARIO A2 ... 108
CUADRO A.4 PRECIPITACIONES LÍNEA BASE, ESTACIÓN BASE, ESCENARIO B2 ... 109
CUADRO A.5 PRECIPITACIONES FUTURAS, ESTACIÓN BASE, ESCENARIO A2 ... 110
CUADRO A.6 PRECIPITACIONES FUTURAS, ESTACIÓN BASE, ESCENARIO B2 ... 113
CUADRO A.7 TEMPERATURAS OBSERVADAS, ESTACIÓN COLORADO ... 116
CUADRO A.8 TEMPERATURAS OBSERVADAS, ESTACIÓN LO AGUIRRE ... 117
CUADRO A.9 TEMPERATURAS OBSERVADAS, ESTACIÓN GUAYQUIVILO ... 118
CUADRO A.10 TEMPERATURAS LÍNEA BASE, ESTACIÓN BASE, ESCENARIO A2 ... 118
CUADRO A.11 TEMPERATURAS LÍNEA BASE, ESTACIÓN BASE, ESCENARIO B2 ... 120
CUADRO A.12 TEMPERATURAS FUTURAS, ESTACIÓN BASE, ESCENARIO A2 ... 121
CUADRO A.13 TEMPERATURAS FUTURAS, ESTACIÓN BASE, ESCENARIO B2 ... 124
CUADRO A.14 CAUDALES OBSERVADOS, ESTACIÓN RÍO MAULE EN DESAGÜE
LAGUNA MAULE ... 127
CUADRO A.15 CAUDALES OBSERVADOS, ESTACIÓN RÍO CIPRESES EN DESAGÜE
LAGUNA LA INVERNADA ... 127
CUADRO A.16 CAUDALES OBSERVADOS, ESTACIÓN CANAL DE ADUCCIÓN
CENTRAL PEHUENCHE ... 127
CUADRO A.17 CAUDALES OBSERVADOS, ESTACIÓN ESTERO LAS GARZAS ... 128
CUADRO A.18 CAUDALES OBSERVADOS, ESTACIÓN RÍO CLARO EN SAN CARLOS ... 128
CUADRO A.19 CAUDALES OBSERVADOS, ESTACIÓN RÍO MAULE EN ARMERILLO ... 128
CUADRO A.20 CAUDALES OBSERVADOS, ESTACIÓN RÍO MAULE EN ARMERILLO ... 130
CUADRO A.21 CAUDALES OBSERVADOS, ESTACIÓN CANAL MAULE EN AFORADOR .... 130
CUADRO A.22 CAUDALES LÍNEA BASE Y FUTUROS, ESCENARIO A2,
AFLUENTES CLARO-LAS GARZAS ... 132
CUADRO A.23 CAUDALES LÍNEA BASE Y FUTUROS, ESCENARIO A2,
AFLUENTES EMBALSE MELADO ... 136
CUADRO A.24 CAUDALES LÍNEA BASE Y FUTUROS, ESCENARIO A2,
AFLUENTES LAGUNA LA INVERNADA ... 140
CUADRO A.25 CAUDALES LÍNEA BASE Y FUTUROS, ESCENARIO A2,
AFLUENTES LAGUNA MAULE ... 145
CUADRO A.26 CAUDALES LÍNEA BASE Y FUTUROS, ESCENARIO B2,
AFLUENTES CLARO-LAS GARZAS ... 149
CUADRO A.27 CAUDALES LÍNEA BASE Y FUTUROS, ESCENARIO B2,
AFLUENTES EMBALSE MELADO ... 154
CUADRO A.28 CAUDALES LÍNEA BASE Y FUTUROS, ESCENARIO B2,
AFLUENTES LAGUNA LA INVERNADA ... 159
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GRÁFICO 15 CORRELACIÓN ENTRE LOS CAUDALES MENSUALES OBSERVADOS
Y SIMULADOS EN MAULE (1976-2007) ... 43
GRÁFICO 16 CORRELACIÓN ENTRE LOS CAUDALES MEDIOS ANUALES OBSERVADOS
Y SIMULADOS EN MAULE (1976-2007) ... 43
GRÁFICO 17 CALIBRACIÓN DE PROMEDIOS MENSUALES HISTÓRICOS (1976-2007) ... 45
GRÁFICO 18 CALIBRACIÓN DE MEDIOS ANUALES ... 46
GRÁFICO 19 CALIBRACIÓN DE LAS CURVAS DE DURACIÓN DE MELADO ... 46
GRÁFICO 20 CORRELACIÓN ENTRE LOS CAUDALES MENSUALES OBSERVADOS
Y SIMULADOS EN MELADO (1976-2007) ... 47
GRÁFICO 21 CORRELACIÓN ENTRE LOS CAUDALES MEDIOS ANUALES OBSERVADOS
Y SIMULADOS EN MELADO (1976-2007) ... 47
GRÁFICO 22 COMPARACIÓN DE VARIACIÓN ESTACIONAL DEL PERÍODO DE
CALIBRACIÓN CON LOS CAUDALES OBSERVADOS, AFLUENTE
A LA LAGUNA LAJA (1966-1994) ... 49
GRÁFICO 23 COMPARACIÓN DE CAUDALES MEDIOS ANUALES DEL PERÍODO DE
CALIBRACIÓN CON LOS CAUDALES OBSERVADOS, AFLUENTE
A LA LAGUNA LAJA (1966-1994) ... 50
GRÁFICO 24 CALIBRACIÓN DE LAS CURVAS DE DURACIÓN DE AFLUENTE
A LA LAGUNA LAJA ... 50
GRÁFICO 25 CORRELACIÓN DE CAUDALES MEDIOS MENSUALES DEL PERÍODO DE
CALIBRACIÓN Y OBSERVADOS, AFLUENTE A LA LAGUNA LAJA
(1966-1994) ... 51
GRÁFICO 26 CORRELACIÓN ENTRE LOS CAUDALES MEDIOS ANUALES OBSERVADOS
Y SIMULADOS EN AFLUENTE A LA LAGUNA LAJA (1966-1994) ... 51
GRÁFICO 27 COMPARACIÓN DE CURVAS DE VARIACIÓN ESTACIONAL, LAJA EN
PUNTO DE SALIDA (1966-1994) ... 53
GRÁFICO 28 COMPARACIÓN DE SERIE DE TOTALES ANUALES, LAJA EN PUNTO DE
SALIDA (1966-1994) ... 53
GRÁFICO 29 CALIBRACIÓN DE LAS CURVAS DE DURACIÓN DE LAJA EN PUNTO
DE SALIDA ... 54
GRÁFICO 30 CORRELACIÓN DE CAUDALES MEDIOS MENSUALES DEL PERÍODO DE
CALIBRACIÓN Y OBSERVADOS, LAJA EN PUNTO DE SALIDA (1966-1994) 54
GRÁFICO 31 CORRELACIÓN DE CAUDALES MEDIOS ANUALES EN EL PERÍODO DE
CALIBRACIÓN, LAJA EN PUNTO DE SALIDA (1966-1994) ... 55
GRÁFICO 32 COMPARACIÓN DE PROMEDIOS MENSUALES HISTÓRICOS EN LAS
GARZAS - CLARO (1976-2000) ... 60
GRÁFICO 33 COMPARACIÓN DE LAS CURVAS DE DURACIÓN EN LAS GARZAS - CLARO 60
GRÁFICO 34 COMPARACIÓN DE PROMEDIOS MENSUALES HISTÓRICOS
EN LA INVERNADA (1976-2000) ... 61
GRÁFICO 35 COMPARACIÓN DE LAS CURVAS DE DURACIÓN EN LA INVERNADA ... 62
GRÁFICO 36 COMPARACIÓN DE PROMEDIOS MENSUALES HISTÓRICOS EN
CUENCA AFLUENTE LAGUNA DEL MAULE (1976-2000) ... 63
GRÁFICO 37 COMPARACIÓN DE LAS CURVAS DE DURACIÓN EN CUENCA AFLUENTE
A LAGUNA DEL MAULE ... 63
GRÁFICO 38 COMPARACIÓN DE PROMEDIOS MENSUALES HISTÓRICOS EN CUENCA
AFLUENTE A EMBALSE MELADO (1976-2000) ... 65
GRÁFICO 39 COMPARACIÓN DE LAS CURVAS DE DURACIÓN EN CUENCA AFLUENTE
A EMBALSE MELADO ... 65
GRÁFICO 40 COMPARACIÓN DE PROMEDIOS MENSUALES HISTÓRICOS EN AFLUENTE
A LA LAGUNA LAJA (1970-1994) ... 67
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