Mexico: main macro-financial indicators (31.01.2023)

(1)

MEXICO: MAIN MACRO-FINANCIAL INDICATORS

International Economics and Euro Area

Department

(2)

SOURCES:IMF, Thomson Reuters and national statistics.

a Percentage of population with income of less than $3.2 (purchasing power parity) per day.

b Drawing on the IMF's calculations for assessing reserve adequacy, which take into account the level of reserves relative to different aggregates and the related opportunity cost.

c Difference between the actual level and the trend in credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP.

d Return on Assets (ROA) is deﬁned as proﬁt as a percentage of assets in the banking sector portfolio.

e Return on Equity (ROE) is deﬁned as proﬁt as a percentage of capital in the banking sector.

f Deﬁned as the ratio of net income from ﬁnancial intermediation to operating income.

Mexico: main economic and social indicators

Table 1

2021 2020

1 . 5 7 )

s r a e y ( y c n a t c e p x e e fi L 6

2 9 , 9 )

$ t n a t s n o c ( a ti p a c r e p P D G

6 3 0 , 0 2 )

P P P ( a ti p a c r e p P D

G 43.9

4 . 5 4 )i

n i G ( y ti l a u q e n I 8

3 0 , 3 9 2 , 1 )

n b

$ ( P D G

)

% 0 . 1

± (

% 0 . 3 )

3 2 0 2 ( t e g r a t n o it a lf n I 3 . 0 3 1 )

n o ill i m ( n o it a l u p o P

Monetary and real sector and prices 2000-2004

average

2005-2009 average

2010-2014 average

2015-2019

average 2020 2021

9 . 5 - 2

. 8 - 0

. 2 3

. 3 0

. 1 0

. 2 )

e t a r r a e y - n o - r a e y ( P D G

7 . 5 4

. 3 0

. 4 9

. 3 4

. 4 0

. 6 )

e t a r r a e y - n o - r a e y ( I P C

7 . 4 8

. 3 5

. 3 3

. 3 1

. 4 7

. 5 )

e t a r r a e y - n o - r a e y ( I P C g n i y lr e d n U

5 . 5 3

. 4 4

. 6 0

. 4 1

. 7 7

. 7 )

% ( e t a r t s e r e t n i y c il o P

4 . 4 5

. 4 7

. 3 0

. 5 0

. 4 1

. 3 )

% ( e t a r t n e m y o l p m e n U

9 . 2 - 9

. 2 - 1

. 2 - 6

. 2 - 5

. 0 - 7

. 0 - )

P D G f o

% ( e c n a l a b t e g d u B

3 . 0 - 1

. 0 4

. 0 7

. 0 - 7

. 1 9

. 1 )

P D G f o

% ( e c n a l a b t e g d u b y r a m ir P

5 . 1 5 1

. 3 5 0

. 7 4 4

. 6 3 2

. 6 2

— )

P D G f o

% ( t b e d c il b u P

External sector

9 . 6 7 5

. 4 7 0

. 2 7 5

. 0 6 7

. 2 5 5

. 6 4 )

P D G f o

% ( s s e n n e p o e d a r T

4 . 0 - 4

. 2 8

. 1 - 5

. 1 - 9

. 0 - 8

. 1 - )

P D G f o

% ( e c n a l a b t n u o c c a t n e r r u C

Foreign direct investment received (% of GDP) 3.1 2.6 2.5 3.0 2.9 2.5

4 . 0 - 7

. 0 8

. 2 3

. 0 - 5

. 0 )

P D G f o

% ( s w o lf n i l a ti p a c o il o ft r o P

4 . 4 2

. 5 3

. 4 5

. 4 4

. 3 9

. 2 )

s t r o p m i f o s h t n o m ( s e v r e s e R

1 . 8 5

. 8 3

. 8 4

. 0 1 7

. 7 6

. 6 )

P D G f o

% ( s e v r e s e R

3 . 1 3

. 1 2

. 1 3

. 1 9

. 0 9

. 0 )

b ( ) F M I(

s c ir t e m A R A

6 . 8 2 9

. 0 3 5

. 0 2 1

. 2 2 6

. 6 1 3

. 1 2 )

P D G f o

% ( t b e d l a n r e t x E

Domestic debt held by non-residents (% of total) 7.3 20.0 44.6 60.5 51.5 44.5

Financial markets

4 . 4 2 5

. 5 2 9

. 0 2 0

. 7 1 4

. 5 1 5

. 0 1 o

r u e e h t t s n i a g a e t a r e g n a h c x E

0 . 0 2 2

. 2 2 3

. 8 1 9

. 2 1 3

. 1 1 2

. 0 1 r

a ll o d e h t t s n i a g a e t a r e g n a h c x E

7 . 6 0

. 6 7

. 6 9

. 5 3

. 8 1

. 0 1 )

% ( d l e i y t b e d t n e m n r e v o g r a e y - 0 1

Average government debt maturity (months) 26.0 59.2 89.6 95.3 92.3 88.0

5 . 3 9 7

. 0 6 1 1 . 0 2 1 5 . 6 1 1 )

s t n i o p s i s a b ( S D C n g i e r e v o S

Pemex CDS (basis points) 142.5 225.4 551.5 376.1

Banking sector

7 . 2 4 4

. 3 4 2

. 9 3 4

. 4 3 5

. 2 3 5

. 4 3 )

P D G f o

% ( r o t c e s e h t f o e z i S

6 . 9 1 8

. 0 2 3

. 9 1 0

. 6 1

—

— )

P D G f o

% ( r o t c e s e t a v ir p e h t o t ti d e r C

4 . 1 - 8

. 2 6

. 5 0

. 5 6

. 1 8

. 7 - )

c ( p a g P D G - o t - ti d e r c l e s a B

9 . 0 9

. 1 0

. 4 5

. 0 - 7

. 1

— )r

a e y - n o - r a e y ( s e c ir p g n i s u o H

7 . 7 1 5

. 5 1 0

. 6 1 6

. 5 1

— s

A W R /l a ti p a c y r o t a l u g e R

1 . 6 1 9

. 3 1 9

. 3 1 2

. 4 1

— 1

r e i T

9 . 9 5 9

. 0 6 2

. 5 6 6

. 5 6 0

. 0

— s

t e s s a l a t o t / RWAs

0 . 0 4

. 2 2

. 2 6

. 2 3

. 2

— )

o il o ft r o p f o

% ( s n a o l g n i m r o fr e p - n o N

2 . 1 3

. 1 5

. 1 4

. 1

—

— )

d ( A O R

0 . 1 1 4

. 2 1 1

. 4 1 6

. 3 1

—

— )

e ( E O R

3 . 4 2 0

. 4 2 8

. 4 2 2

. 6 3

—

— o

it a r y ti d i u q i L

8 . 0 7 9

. 8 6 2

. 6 6 5

. 8 6

—

— )

s e u n e v e r l a t o t f o

% ( e r u ti d n e p x e y r a m ir P

Net interest income (% of gross revenues) (f) — — 7.0 5.5 7.1 7.9

Poverty rate (% of population) (a)

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SOURCE:Irma Alonso and Luis Molina. (2021). "A GPS navigator to monitor risks in emerging economies: the vulnerability dashboard". Documentos Ocasionales - Banco de España, 2111. https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/21/Files/do2111e.pdf

a The risk level is indicated with shades of green (associated with lower levels of vulnerability), yellow (medium vulnerability) and red (variables in the highest risk percentiles).

Mexico: situation of vulnerability (a)

Table 2

With respect to other emerging market economies

2022 Latest ﬁgure

H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1

Sovereign spread (bp)

0.53 0.41 0.47 0.54 0.57 0.51 0.65 0.67 0.52 0.59 0.66 0.44

Stock market (quarterly change)

0.51 0.65 0.65 0.61 0.63 0.75 0.41 0.23 0.53 0.6 0.875

Exchange rate (quarterly change)

0.29 0.5 0.47 0.54 0.3 0.49 0.65 0.06 0.36 0.62 0.29 0.08

Sovereign spread (quarterly change)

0.41 0.52 0.67 0.6 0.51 0.5 0.69 0.16 0.44 0.67 0.68 0.32

GDP (year-on-year)

0.58 0.77 0.61 0.66 0.88 0.91 0.96 0.96 0.47 0.49 0.63 0.847

Inﬂation

0.69 0.78 0.61 0.59 0.38 0.1 0.12 0.27 0.56 0.78 0.83 0.346

Industrial output

0.83 0.85 0.81 0.69 0.78 0.9 0.94 1 0.82 0.14 0.18 0.616

Currency overvaluation

0.04 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.12 0.13 0.07 0.05 0.11 0.13 0.2 0.346

Budget balance (% of GDP)

0.5 0.47 0.87 0.61 0.6 0.76 0.78 0.81 0.85 0.81 0.385

Gross public sector debt (% of GDP)

0.96 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.93 1 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.384

Credit (real, year-on-year)

0.52 0.59 0.4 0.56 0.59 0.44 0.43 0.83 0.96 0.88 0.616

Deposits (real, year-on-year)

0.68 0.37 0.9 0.86 0.38 0.22 0.68 0.88 0.85 0.539

Net foreign assets of banks (% of GDP)

0.08 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.2 0.17 0.15 0.06 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.424

Non-performing loans (% of portfolio)

0.06 0.06 0.1 0.1 0.09 0.18 0.21 0.18 0.39 0.23 0.4 0.346

Loan-to-deposit ratio

0.94 0.94 0.98 0.99 1 0.99 0.97 0.8 0.6 0.57 0.58 0.346

Banks' equity index (quarterly change)

0.55 0.65 0.57 0.55 0.8 0.32 0.29 0.51 0.39 0.792

Banks' external debt spread

0.13 0.27 0.76 0.41 0.56 0.53 0.22 0.44 0.42 0.611

Interbank interest rate

0.42 0.46 0.53 0.62 0.68 0.56 0.31 0.16 0.25 0.43 0.423

Net interest income

0.55 0.57 0.59 0.59 0.65 0.63 0.59 0.64 0.36 0.43 0.68 0.76

Banking risk (BICRA)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.95 0.9 0.85 0.81 0.217

Banking risk (IHS)

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Current account balance (% of GDP)

0.67 0.5 0.49 0.59 0.49 0.1 0.05 0 0.01 0.06 0.16 0.424

Foreign direct investment (% of GDP)

0.32 0.36 0.32 0.42 0.53 0.44 0.16 0.63 0.92 0.58 0.424

External debt (% of GDP)

0.89 0.84 0.88 0.84 0.81 0.81 0.95 0.97 0.91 0.84 0.153

Short-term external debt (% of reserves)

0.07 0.01 0.1 0.23 0.18 0.09 0.03 0.01 0.05 0.01 0.14 0.269

Reserves (% of GDP)

0.1 0.15 0.18 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.05 0.06 0.14 0.15 0.27

External debt service (% of exports)

0.42 0.35 0.28 0.22 0.3 0.32 0.63 0.32 0.05 0 0.03 0.269

Portfolio investment (% of GDP)

0.28 0.33 0.36 0.47 0.59 0.56 0.65 0.65 0.85 1 0.99 0.847

GDP per capita (change)

0.77 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.96 0.96 1 1 0.08 0.08 - 0.385

Political risk (IHS)

0.58 0.57 0.85 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.9 0.8 0.79 0.75 0.807

Geopolitical risk (GPR)

0.86 0.89 0.77 0.82 0.92 0.9 0.51 0.31 0.15 0.24 0.526

Sovereign rating

0.16 0.18 0.2 0.21 0.25 0.35 0.51 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.68 0.459

Stability/Absence of violence (percentile)

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 0.847

Time series

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

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SOURCES:IMF, OECD, Eurostat, BIS and national statistics.

a With respect to euro area and Spanish ﬁgures.

b With respect to Mexican ﬁgures.

Spain and euro area exposure to Mexico (2021 unless otherwise indicated)

Table 3

Euro area Spain Euro area Spain Euro area Spain Euro area Spain 4 1 5

2 3

. 1 7 . 0 3

. 0 3 . 0 9

. 4 4 . 9 3 s

d o o g f o s t r o p x E

9 1 2 3 1

. 1 5 . 0 3

. 0 2 . 0 5

. 3 7 . 1 2 )

0 2 0 2 ( s d o o g f o s t r o p m I

2 1 1 3 1

. 2 7 . 0 1

. 0 1 . 0 9

. 1 4 . 1 1 )

0 2 0 2 ( s e c i v r e s f o s t r o p x E

4 1 5 4 1

. 1 3 . 0 1

. 0 0 . 0 7

. 0 3 . 4 )

0 2 0 2 ( s e c i v r e s f o s t r o p m I

International Investment Position:

Foreign direct investment. Assets (2020) 197.8 42.4 1.5 3.3 0.6 7.3 19 4

Foreign direct investment. Liabilities (2020) 52.3 8.7 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.1 31 14

Portfolio investment. Assets (December 2021) 110.0 5.4 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.6 27 15

Portfolio investment. Liabilities (December 2021) 18.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 40 43

Credit exposure to Mexico of BIS reporting banks (a)

(March 2022) 215.2 195.0 1.5 13.7 1.8 9.6 16 3

Claims of Mexican banks vis-à-vis residents of the

euro area or Spain (March 2022) 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 22 22

Debt of Mexican residents to banks from the euro area

or Spain (b) (March 2022) 215.2 195.0 16.6 15.1 51.1 46.3 — 1

Percentage of GDP Percentageoft otal Ranking n

b

$

(5)

SOURCES: OECD and IMF. _DOWNLOAD

Mexico: structural economic data

Chart 1

Rest of the world Rest of Latin America

Rest of the euro area Spain

China United States

Manufacturing Mining and quarrying Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

China United States Manufacturing

Mining and quarrying Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

Net exports Investment

Government consumption Private consumption

Taxes and subsidies Other services Financial services Services: Public admin., health

Distributive trade, repairs, transportation, accommodation and food services

Construction Other industry (including energy) Manufacturing Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

Other Peru Mexico Colombia Chile Brazil Argentina

Rest of the world Rest of Latin America Rest of the euro area

Spain China United States Mexico

1.a Share of global GDP (%) (2021) 1.b Share of Latin American GDP (%) (2021)

1.c Breakdown of GDP: supply (%) (2021) 1.d Breakdown of GDP: demand (%) (2021)

1.e Exports of goods, by sector (%) (2021) 1.f Exports of goods, by destination (%) (2021)

1.g Imports of goods, by sector (%) (2021) 1.h Imports of goods, by origin (%) (2021)

1.8

15.5

18.6

1.4

5.5 10.1 47.2

9.8

32.2

7.5 4.7 25.3

4.2 16.2

3.4

16.3

6.1

26.5 10.0

4.9 22.3

4.3

67.7 12.0

20.4 -0.1

3.4 6.9

89.7 80.6

1.9 1.0 3.0

4.3 9.1

2.7 3.2

94.1

43,7

20,0 0,9 7,5 10,0

18,0

SOURCES: OECD and IMF. _DOWNLOAD

Mexico: structural economic data

Chart 1

China United States

Manufacturing Mining and quarrying Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

China United States Manufacturing

Mining and quarrying Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

Net exports Investment

Government consumption Private consumption

Taxes and subsidies Other services Financial services Services: Public admin., health

Distributive trade, repairs, transportation, accommodation and food services

Construction Other industry (including energy) Manufacturing Agriculture, forestry and ﬁshing

Other Peru Mexico Colombia Chile Brazil Argentina

Rest of the world Rest of Latin America Rest of the euro area

Spain China United States Mexico

1.a Share of global GDP (%) (2021) 1.b Share of Latin American GDP (%) (2021)

1.c Breakdown of GDP: supply (%) (2021) 1.d Breakdown of GDP: demand (%) (2021)

1.e Exports of goods, by sector (%) (2021) 1.f Exports of goods, by destination (%) (2021)

1.g Imports of goods, by sector (%) (2021) 1.h Imports of goods, by origin (%) (2021)

1.8

15.5

18.6

1.4

5.5 10.1 47.2

9.8

32.2

7.5 4.7 25.3

4.2 16.2

3.4

16.3

6.1

26.5 10.0

4.9 22.3

4.3

67.7 12.0

20.4 -0.1

3.4 6.9

89.7 80.6

1.9 1.0 3.0

4.3 9.1

2.7 3.2

94.1

43,7

20,0 0,9 7,5 10,0

18,0

(6)

SOURCES:Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores and Banco de España.

a Credit and other claims on households and non-ﬁnancial corporations, excluding public entities and ﬁnancial institutions.

b 1% of any of the types of exposure. DOWNLOAD

Mexico: structure of the banking sector and relevance for Spain

Chart 2

Materiality threshold (b) Defaulted

Original Risk-weighted 2.c Exposures to material third countries, by type of exposure (June 2022) (a)

Foreign-owned private banks Domestic private banks Public (development) banks 2.b Breakdown of the banking sector (March 2022): deposits

Foreign-owned private banks Domestic private banks Public (development) banks 2.a Breakdown of the banking sector (March 2022): loans

BBVA Bancomer: 20.5

Development banking: 13.7

Banamex: 11.9 Santander: 11.4

Banorte: 10.5 HSBC: 6.6 Scotiabank: 5.8

Inbursa: 3.3 Other domestic private banks: 13.8

Other foreign-owned banks: 2.3 BBVA Bancomer: 20.3

Development banking:16.3

Banamex: 8.0 Santander: 11.1 Banorte: 12.5

HSBC: 6.0 Scotiabank: 6.8

Inbursa: 3.6 Other domestic

private banks: 13.4 Other foreign-owned banks: 2.1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

United Kingdom

United States

Mexico Brazil Turkey Chile Peru Colombia

% of total

SOURCES:Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores and Banco de España.

a Credit and other claims on households and non-ﬁnancial corporations, excluding public entities and ﬁnancial institutions.

b 1% of any of the types of exposure. DOWNLOAD

Mexico: structure of the banking sector and relevance for Spain

Chart 2

Materiality threshold (b) Defaulted

Original Risk-weighted 2.c Exposures to material third countries, by type of exposure (June 2022) (a)

Foreign-owned private banks Domestic private banks Public (development) banks 2.b Breakdown of the banking sector (March 2022): deposits

Foreign-owned private banks Domestic private banks Public (development) banks 2.a Breakdown of the banking sector (March 2022): loans

BBVA Bancomer: 20.5

Development banking: 13.7

Banamex: 11.9 Santander: 11.4

Banorte: 10.5 HSBC: 6.6 Scotiabank: 5.8

Inbursa: 3.3 Other domestic private banks: 13.8

Other foreign-owned banks: 2.3 BBVA Bancomer: 20.3

Development banking:16.3

Banamex: 8.0 Santander: 11.1 Banorte: 12.5

HSBC: 6.0 Scotiabank: 6.8

Inbursa: 3.6 Other domestic

private banks: 13.4 Other foreign-owned banks: 2.1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

United Kingdom

United States

Mexico Brazil Turkey Chile Peru Colombia

% of total

(7)

SOURCES:Banco de España, Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch, in addition to: Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello. (2021). "Measuring Geopolitical Risk". International Finance Discussion Papers - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Corinna Ghirelli, Javier J. Pérez and Alberto Urtasun. (2021). "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy". Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 2(2); and Erik Andres-Escayola, Corinna Ghirelli, Luis Molina, Javier J. Pérez and Elena Vidal. (2022). "Using newspapers for textual indicators: which and how many?". Documentos de Trabajo - Banco de España, 2235. https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/

PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/22/Files/dt2235e.pdf.

a The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index is constructed drawing on the local and international press using words related to uncertainty over economic policies, based on the following methodology: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis. (2016). "Measuring economic policy uncertainty". Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), pp. 1593-1636.

b The Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index is a measure of adverse geopolitical events based on a survey of newspaper articles in the English-speaking

press covering geopolitical unrest. DOWNLOAD

Mexico: uncertainty and geopolitical risk indicators and sovereign ratings

Chart 3

Investment grade Fitch

Standard and Poor's Moody's

3.b Sovereign ratings

Mexico - GPR (right-hand scale) (b) Mexico - EPU, all press (a) 3.a News-based indicators

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22

Baa3/BBB- Baa1/BBB+

A3/A-

Baa2/BBB

SOURCES:Banco de España, Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch, in addition to: Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello. (2021). "Measuring Geopolitical Risk". International Finance Discussion Papers - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Corinna Ghirelli, Javier J. Pérez and Alberto Urtasun. (2021). "The spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty in Latin America on the Spanish economy". Latin American Journal of Central Banking, 2(2); and Erik Andres-Escayola, Corinna Ghirelli, Luis Molina, Javier J. Pérez and Elena Vidal. (2022). "Using newspapers for textual indicators: which and how many?". Documentos de Trabajo - Banco de España, 2235. https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/

PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/22/Files/dt2235e.pdf.

a The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index is constructed drawing on the local and international press using words related to uncertainty over economic policies, based on the following methodology: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis. (2016). "Measuring economic policy uncertainty". Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), pp. 1593-1636.

b The Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index is a measure of adverse geopolitical events based on a survey of newspaper articles in the English-speaking

press covering geopolitical unrest. DOWNLOAD

Mexico: uncertainty and geopolitical risk indicators and sovereign ratings

Chart 3

Investment grade Fitch

Standard and Poor's Moody's

3.b Sovereign ratings

Mexico - GPR (right-hand scale) (b) Mexico - EPU, all press (a) 3.a News-based indicators

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22

Baa3/BBB- Baa1/BBB+

A3/A-

Baa2/BBB

(8)

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SOURCES:Banco de España and Reﬁnitiv.

a Ratio of export prices to import prices.

Mexico: exchange rates, stock market, sovereign spreads, long-term interest rates, ﬁnancial conditions and ﬁnancial stress

Chart 4

IPC

EMBI+

Terms of trade (a) Nominal effective Real effective Against the euro Against the dollar 4.a Exchange rates of the mexican peso

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22

January 2012 = 100 (↓ depreciation)

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

January 2012 = 100 4.b Stock exchange index

80 130 180 230 280 330 380 430 480

bp

4.c Sovereign spread (EMBI+)

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a Ratio of export prices to import prices.

Mexico: exchange rates, stock market, sovereign spreads, long-term interest rates, ﬁnancial conditions and ﬁnancial stress

Chart 4

IPC

EMBI+

Terms of trade (a) Nominal effective Real effective Against the euro Against the dollar 4.a Exchange rates of the mexican peso

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

January 2012 = 100 (↓ depreciation)

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

January 2012 = 100 4.b Stock exchange index

80 130 180 230 280 330 380 430 480

bp

4.c Sovereign spread (EMBI+)

(9)

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a Prepared using a principal component methodology drawing on changes in the stock market, short and long-term interest rates, the price of commodities and exchange rate ﬂuctuations.

b Prepared on the basis of the volatilities and spreads of six market segments, standardised and grouped discounting any cross-correlations.

Mexico: exchange rates, stock market, sovereign spreads, long-term interest rates, ﬁnancial conditions and ﬁnancial stress (cont'd)

Chart 4

4.d Long-term interest rate in Mexican pesos

10-year rate

FCI

FSI (b)

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7

Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-20 Jan-23

0 - 1

4.f Financial stress index -3

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-20

Historical average = 0 4.e Financial conditions index

Increase in ﬁnancial market stress 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

%

Tightening of ﬁnancial conditions

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a Prepared using a principal component methodology drawing on changes in the stock market, short and long-term interest rates, the price of commodities and exchange rate ﬂuctuations.

b Prepared on the basis of the volatilities and spreads of six market segments, standardised and grouped discounting any cross-correlations.

Mexico: exchange rates, stock market, sovereign spreads, long-term interest rates, ﬁnancial conditions and ﬁnancial stress (cont'd)

Chart 4

4.d Long-term interest rate in Mexican pesos

10-year rate

FCI

FSI (b)

0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7

Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-20 Jan-23

0 - 1

4.f Financial stress index -3

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-20

Historical average = 0 4.e Financial conditions index

Increase in ﬁnancial market stress 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

%

Tightening of ﬁnancial conditions