Climate projections up to 2030 were produced by Maroc Météo with the help of AASTMT as part of this study. The three models of the European ENSEMBLES project were treated with the IPCC A1B scenario, and the Météo-France ARPEGE-Climat model with the IPCC A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. The A1 family of scenarios describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population peaking at mid-century and then declining, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
The B1 scenario describes a convergent world with the same global population peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter, as in the A1 scenario family, but with rapid changes in economic structures towards a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. Projected changes according to the different model scenarios, for average seasonal and annual temperatures (left, °C) and for the number of days of the summer heat wave and for the winter cold wave (right). Projected changes, according to the different model scenarios, for the maximum (pxcdd) and average (pdsav) drought period for all four seasons and for the year (days).
Regarding pluviometric development, whether for accumulation or for maximum or average drought period, a lack of consensus is noted between different model scenarios and this for all seasons as well as the whole year. The current boundaries of the urban district of Alexandria include the following urban districts: Montazah, Eastern District, Middle District, Western District, Customs District, the new Borg El Arab; and Marriout and El Mex lakes with the informal settlements that surround them. The urban settlement has historically expanded in a linear fashion and currently stretches from the coastal village of Aboukir to the northeast to the village of El-Deir to the southwest.
The city, which shows a very high density along its coast, is built on a narrow and partly raised coastal ridge facing the sea, behind which are lakes and lowland rural areas and wetlands, some of which are below sea-level.
Urban Planning and Sensitive Urban Components
Vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters can be defined as a combination of two components: exposure and sensitivity. Sensitivity reflects the sensitivity of the urban system (i.e. the various elements of the urban cover) to climatic impacts and natural hazards and the extent to which changes in these hazards may affect it in its current form. In other words, sensitive urban components are highly responsive to natural hazards and can be significantly affected by small climate changes.
The safety parameters can be defined as follows: density and quality of the buildings, social level of the residents; facilities with high public attendance.
Economic Evaluation
The total annual costs of disasters considered in the study and for which cost estimation was possible, taking CC into account, is estimated at 799 MLE (822 including water resources) in 2030, expressed in constant current LE. Furthermore, the proportion attributable to CC can only be credited to the total calculated costs for health and water resources. Such sums cannot be estimated only by their value, but are strongly dependent on the system of financing to be planned, and especially on provisions for solidarity, either within the city of Alexandria or between the Egyptian nation and the city and, of course, in accordance with the general state of the public .
Uncertainties and meaningfulness of quantitative elements provided here are important points to be remembered
The bottom-up approach can be complemented by a top-down method, which consists in deriving the values from data on a larger scale (national or regional), which are generally more accessible. Applying the Nordhaus model to the case of Alexandria would indicate a loss between 0.21% and 0.52% of GDP, i.e. Finally, economic analysis emphasizes that growth generates a concentration of value, or a tendency to increase vulnerability and therefore risk.
Institutional Analysis
2002 to the creation of the Ministry of the Environmental Affairs, to take political decisions that the previously created Environmental Affairs
Slow-impact risks, such as those associated with climate change, are of particular concern to Egypt, as sea level rise is likely to place severe pressure on land and water resources, affecting most of the population and productive activities of the country are located in or near Alexandria. Nile Delta and the coastal areas in the north. Presumably for this reason, from the 1990s onwards, the vertical geometry of state action in natural risk management was strengthened through the creation and empowerment of central coordination entities to manage disaster response, or to – where necessary – to promote and lead overall risk management actions. . Regarding major risks, the government has committed its strategic choice to concentrate material and human resources in only two places: the IDSC/(NC)CMDRR, acting coordinator and decision-maker, and the Civil Protection Administration, which acts as the operational arm.
Space and aerial observation applications for agriculture, hydrology, soil and land use, risk impact scenarios,. Coordination and crisis management – including the main entities involved in policy making and operational management of emergencies, as well as committees.
Authorities, structures and personnel that constitute the core of the current protection system
There is a need for further, significant and sustained investment in terms of early warning, communication, command and control. These answers pointed to the unchanged need to act to change the rules of emergency warning and management in distant regions, where the actions from distant control rooms are less sequential, therefore less effective. Although there is general agreement about an overall improvement in quality and efficiency of Command and Control procedures (and . progress in multi-agency coordination) in the last decade – attention is drawn to improving the technical and.
There is still some way to go to achieve multiscale preparedness and adapt the response to it: the current thinking is that the current system can contain it, with improvements. At the institutional and organizational level, although there is a legal framework consisting of several acts relevant to crisis management and disaster risk reduction (DRR) in Egypt, there is a need to review, correct and amend the laws and their enforcement and to institutionalize DRR, to ensure political commitment. In the meantime, to support such activity, there is a need to develop the human capacity of employees working on this subject through training programs.
The World Bank
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