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TítuloPointwise forecast, confidence and prediction intervals in electricity demand and price

TítuloPointwise forecast, confidence and prediction intervals in electricity demand and price

Some statistical tools and procedures are analysed and proposed along this memory, to study this kind of data: electricity demand and price, which is the main objective of the thesis. Briey, after an introduction to the Span- ish Electricity Market, to functional data and a descriptive analysis of our dataset, the study will start from outlier detection methods in the context of functional time series and to forecasting within this eld. It keeps going proposing bootstrap procedures to build condence and prediction intervals for two functional regression models: Functional Nonparametric regression (FNP) and Semi-Functional Partial Linear regression model (SFPL). Asymp- totic theorems to prove the validity of the bootstrap condence intervals in both models are proved in the theoretical part of the memory. Condence in- tervals are analysed with simulated data and applied to the electrical dataset, while the case of prediction ones is focussed on the application to real data. The contents of the memory are organized as follows: Chapter 1 is de- voted to introduce the reader to the context in which the study is carried out: electricity data. It begins with an explanation of the Spanish Electric- ity Market operation in Section 1.2. The transactions that take place in this

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Decarbonisation of the Argentinian transport sector by the introduction of battery electric vehicles

Decarbonisation of the Argentinian transport sector by the introduction of battery electric vehicles

From the tariff categories of a metropolitan area utility, it can be induced that the residential demand of Argentina is, in average, between 700 and 1400 kWh per month. That is, roughly around 1.5 kW of mean power. As stated in 2.4, a slow charger consumes between 3.7 – 22 kW, in-between 2 to 20 times the average residential consumption (see Figure 15). Introducing massively this technology to the grid without an assessment of its impact could collapse the system operation. The grid capacity should be prepared for this demand, and considering its magnitude, should be also prepared to deliver in such a way that the peak values are as closest to the average ones as possible. Moreover, considering that the intermittent generation of renewable sources will require a higher installed capacity to compensate this. Otherwise, an energy storage method should be used (hydrogen storage, power-to-gas, batteries, pumped reservoirs, etc.), incurring in higher infrastructural costs, or the grid should be over dimensioned in order to compensate this effect and be able to respond at the moment of peak loads or at the one of low energy production from renewable sources. It is demonstrated that electricity demand is inelastic against electricity price (between 10-30%) [36]. That means that the response in the demand cannot be forced directly by changing the electricity price. In order to counteract this effect, different strategies incentivize users to adapt their demand to supply variations. Demand Side Management (DSM) is defined as actions taken on the customer's side of the meter to change the amount or timing of energy consumption. Utility DSM programs offer a variety of measures that can reduce energy consumption and consumer energy expenses. In order to do this, tariff differentiation among peak, rest, and valley time slots should exist in residential tariffs (as it already exists in industrial ones), and households should be connected by the internet of things (IoT) to smart grids, which should regulate the price in order to adjust demand and distribute it as evenly as possible. Electricity DSM strategies have the goal of maximizing end-

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Economic Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation Systems for Local Government Office: Evaluation of the Jeju Special Self Governing Province in South Korea

Economic Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation Systems for Local Government Office: Evaluation of the Jeju Special Self Governing Province in South Korea

Abstract: While environmental and energy concerns have become global issues, the government of South Korea has made notable efforts and formulated plans for the diffusion of renewable energy generation facilities for the nation’s public and governmental institutions. Accordingly, Jeju Island has become one of the most promising locations for utilizing renewable energy resources. This study aims to propose potential configurations for renewable energy generation facilities (mainly solar and wind energy facilities) in response to the electricity demand of the main local governmental offices of Jeju Special Self-Governing Province. The study utilizes the hybrid optimization of multiple energy resources software to simulate two optimized configurations for generation at a cost of energy of $0.306 per kWh (independent) and $0.204 per kWh (grid-connected) with 100% renewable fraction for the island. The implications of the simulation results and limitations of the study are discussed.

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Medium term power portfolio optimization considering locational electricity prices and risk aversion for a power producer in a deregulated electricity market

Medium term power portfolio optimization considering locational electricity prices and risk aversion for a power producer in a deregulated electricity market

one hour to the next is not important and it may be more appropriate to consider a price model of daily averages or even monthly averages (in such a case, simplifications can be made on the hourly variations, if necessary, for instance, a common alternative is to assume constant price in certain hour groups of the same time period). Hence, one important ques- tion is: what features need to be taken into account? In this regard, besides the particular objective that the model pursues, the history of the price and other relevant data, such as historical electricity demand or fuels prices, need to be studied carefully so as to understand what features are relevant for the particular purpose of the model, since it should capture the features appropriately. This leads to the following question: how to verify that these features are appropriately captured by a given model? According to Geman (2005) two aspects are fundamental in commodity price modeling: a) the empirical statistical proper- ties of the price data (mean, variance, etc.) should be consistent with the model, and b) the “dynamics” of the price data should be consistent with the model: aspects such as the similarities of the trajectories and the changes from one time period to another should be verified. Finally, the model considered should be parsimonious and robust: an adequate level of model complexity should be considered according to the available data, for in- stance, if there is very few data a model with many parameters should be hardly trusted (that would not be a parsimonious model), and the changes in the parameters induced by changes in the data should be smooth (robust model).

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Serie documentos de trabajo

Serie documentos de trabajo

Point ii) is the most difficult, though technically feasible, to establish. Basically, administrative restrictions, like restricting to only one contract per household, as well as random auditing at low-cost, can support the enforcement of the scheme. Also, if properly set, the incentive for high-consumption households to “cheat” would be low, given the transactions costs involved and the obvious reduction in welfare if they decided to reduce electricity demand to benefit from the subsidy. In order for this scheme to induce self- selection, a high correlation between energy consumption and income should be assumed. 8

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Effects of electricity dynamic pricing : from time of use to real time pricing

Effects of electricity dynamic pricing : from time of use to real time pricing

This paper develops an empirical economic model where the electricity supply curve is estimated econometrically and the electricity demand is calibrated hourly and assumed to be iso-elastic, allowing an exact match with wholesale real market data. The model is used to evaluate the effects in peak demand, energy consumption, and in the average cost of producing electricity with increasingly flexible price systems. We start from simple ToU rates, adding more price levels up to 24 within a day, aiming to assess the maximum theoretical benefit that can be obtained from periodic (and more predictable) rates. This is compared against RTP, the most flexible available tariff, assessing theoretically how much are the additional theoretical benefits from event-driven rates. A discussion of price periodic changes versus real-time event-driven changes is provided, as going beyond people (periodic) expectations may require more technology and may have limitations to “activate” customers.

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Productivity, demand and the home market effect

Productivity, demand and the home market effect

This equation presents the e¤ects of the di¤erent channels on the HME through the number of produced varieties of heterogeneous good. The Z variable in the equation (43) corresponds with the supernumerary income ratio (the centerpiece of this result, since it depends on the three channels in question) and the ratio of population size. The Z variable collects the di¤erent channels in the model, so that supernumerary income is a¤ected by the country’s productivity levels, the dependence factor ( ) and population size. Increased productivity or a reduced dependence factor increases per capita income levels, creating a demand e¤ect. This in turn stimulates the production of more varieties of heterogeneous good in the country with a higher income. This is so because it boosts the size of demand, which allows it to exploit economies of scale. Countries with a greater supernumerary income, as caused by any of the channels presented in this case, will then have a higher real income, which increases the economic market size, directly a¤ecting the number of varieties of heterogeneous good produced in the economy. 12

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Corporate social responsibility in the electricity sector

Corporate social responsibility in the electricity sector

In recent years, corporate social responsibility has become a key factor in busi- ness management. Thus, new principles and business practices have emerged to ensure sustainable development, taking into account the environmental and social problems. In this respect, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the voluntary information disclosure by the electricity sector´s companies in their corporate social responsibility reports. Given that the main impacts of electrical energy production affects the environment, the analysis of an international sample composed of 40 electrical corporations reveals that sector improvements in environmental performance are superior to the economic and social development.

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Radio y repetición de la música en los servicios on-demand

Radio y repetición de la música en los servicios on-demand

A escolha desta banda seguiu estas preocupações: ser suficientemente “mainstream” (publicaram pela EMI) sem ser um “blockbuster”. Mas é verdade que dentro desta combinação poderiam ser milhares as referências. A escolha, porque apenas podia ser uma, foi meramente operacional, para poder gerar a “playlist” no serviço on- demand (isto significa que não foram tidas em conta outras ferramentas oferecidas por esses serviços, que até podem a diferença no momento de os distinguir, como a capacidade de sugestão de novos artistas, e que a comparação é feita tendo em conta apenas este ponto em concreto). Em trabalhos posteriores tentaremos desenvolver o assunto recorrendo a outro tipo de artistas.

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Long-run cost functions for electricity transmission

Long-run cost functions for electricity transmission

), appropriate weights (such as Laspeyres weights) grant convergence to equilibrium conditions (Vogelsang, 2001; Tanaka, 2007; Rosellón, 2007; Léautier, 2000). A criticism of this approach is that the properties of transmission cost and demand functions are little known but are suspected to differ from conventional functional forms (Hogan, 2000, 2002a; Vogelsang, 2006; HRV, 2007). Hence the assumed cost and demand properties may not hold in a real network with loop-flows since decreasing marginal cost segments and discontinuities in the costs can arise during an expansion project. Furthermore, a conventional linear definition of the transmission output —similar to the output definition for other economic commodities— is in fact difficult since the physical flow through loop-flowed meshed networks is complex and highly interdependent among transactions (Bushnell and Stoft, 1997; Hogan, 2002a, 2002b).

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A Survey of Recent Empirical Money Demand Studies

A Survey of Recent Empirical Money Demand Studies

Table 1 also presents details relevant to modeling and estimating the demand for money from various studies. In specific, it summarizes information for a cross- section of developing and industrial countries, on monetary aggregates (nominal or real), scale variable(s), and the opportunity cost and other variables included; data period and frequency chosen; unit root, cointegration, and stability tests applied; nature of various time series (such as the order of integration and whether seasonally adjusted or not). It also presents the findings. The presentation of infor- mation will enable the researchers to draw some insights into the justification of selecting diverse set of variables and approaches across various countries.

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TítuloIdentification, sympathy and football demand

TítuloIdentification, sympathy and football demand

This present work analyzes the effects derived from sympathy and identification links between fans and clubs in sports demand, at the same time considering psychosociological factors which affect the willingness to pay for goods and services that have characteristics similar to the public goods. With this objective, after reconsidering the diverse approaches to this type of bonds, we propose and contrast a theoretical model that allows us to extract a series of conclusions on the interrelation between sympathy and willingness to pay. Altogether, the results allow us to establish a clear causality between these concepts, insofar as identification with a club (and its ethical-normative and psychological determinants) constitutes an important causal factor in its valuation that can explain some irregularities found within the contingent valuation method.

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Diseño del proceso de reconciliación táctica entre el modelo operativo y el proceso de planeación de ventas y operaciones a medianos plazo por medio de la metodología Demand Driven Adaptive Enterprise (DDAE)

Diseño del proceso de reconciliación táctica entre el modelo operativo y el proceso de planeación de ventas y operaciones a medianos plazo por medio de la metodología Demand Driven Adaptive Enterprise (DDAE)

El presente trabajo se enfoca en el diseño del proceso de reconciliación entre el modelo operativo y el proceso de planeación de ventas y operaciones a mediano plazo por medio de la metodología demand driven adaptive enterprise (DDAE) en la empresa Locería Colombia S. A. S. que busca mejorar el nivel de servicio con un inventario adecuado y con un proceso de manufactura más estable, si se adoptan como criterio de estabilidad los menores cambios posibles en el nivel de operación de los procesos productivos en un ambiente volátil, incierto, complejo y ambiguo (Vuca).

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Robust generation scheduling in electricity markets

Robust generation scheduling in electricity markets

An and Zeng [4] proposed improving the characterization of uncertainty through the simultaneous consideration of multiple uncertainty sets. In addition, two different two-stage robust unit commitment models were presented. One of the proposed models addressed the unit-commitment-based problem under uncertain demand with no base-case dispatch in a single-bus setting. Because of the consideration of multiple uncertainty sets, the worst-case redispatch cost in the second stage was estimated by the weighted sum of the worst-case costs associated with these uncertainty sets. The second approach will be discussed in the next subsection. Reference [3] presented a robust unit-commitment-based formulation wherein the transmission network was represented by an ac load flow model. The ac power flow equations were convexified using an approximate transformation technique, namely the signomial convex transformation. The resulting optimization problem was solved by a trilevel decomposition algorithm using primal and dual cutting planes. Finally, Zhai et al. recently proposed in [146] a two-stage robust formulation wherein the nonanticipativity of the dispatch process was precisely accounted for. The proposed solution methodology for the resulting multistage robust approach consisted in solving an equivalent scenario-based robust counterpart wherein system operation was explicitly modeled for a set of vertexes of the polyhedron representing the uncertainty set.

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Metodología Demand Driven para mejora de servicio y reducción de costos

Metodología Demand Driven para mejora de servicio y reducción de costos

Por último traemos algunos casos de éxito en la implementación de la metodología Demand Driven para gestión de la cadena logística. En el año 2012, se desarrolló e implementó el modelo de Demand Driven para el comercio de e-books en Estados Unidos, y encontró que es un modelo apto debido a la gestión de inventarios y hábitos de compra que se tienen en este mercado. Mediante el estudio se encontró que de todos los e-books comprados por el negocio en 2012, solo el 42% se vendió al año siguiente, esto bajo la metodología de inventarios tradicional. Al implementar Demand Driven y hacer reposición de inventario según la venta real de los consumidores, se evita la compra innecesaria de artículos que no son realmente demandados por éstos (Zhang, Downey, Urbano & Klingler, 2015).

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Understanding money demand of Argentina: 1935-2000

Understanding money demand of Argentina: 1935-2000

The last up-ward trend in real cash holdings re-started after the Convertibility regime that backed the money base on external reserves to guarantee the one-peso to one- dollar rate of exchange. This monetary regime was undertaken at the same time that deep reforms move the economy towards free market and the largest growing in activity within the sample was experienced. This trend -both in real activity and real money- has been interrupted in the late nineties walking to a reversal to the earlier periods. Understanding the behaviour of money demand in such long period could be a fruitful experience to learn for the near future.

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Electricity Price Forecasting by Averaging Dynamic Factor Models

Electricity Price Forecasting by Averaging Dynamic Factor Models

Abstract: In the context of the liberalization of electricity markets, forecasting prices is essential. With this aim, research has evolved to model the particularities of electricity prices. In particular, dynamic factor models have been quite successful in the task, both in the short and long run. However, specifying a single model for the unobserved factors is difficult, and it cannot be guaranteed that such a model exists. In this paper, model averaging is employed to overcome this difficulty, with the expectation that electricity prices would be better forecast by a combination of models for the factors than by a single model. Although our procedure is applicable in other markets, it is illustrated with an application to forecasting spot prices of the Iberian Market, MIBEL (The Iberian Electricity Market). Three combinations of forecasts are successful in providing improved results for alternative forecasting horizons.

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"La Nocturna": study of educational choice in Colombia

"La Nocturna": study of educational choice in Colombia

The Technical (T) degree coefficients have mixed results for males and females. For males, the coefficient was of -0.05 or 5.1% decrease in earnings in relation to a male holding a HS degree. On the other hand, for females the coefficient was 0.078 or 7.8% increase in earnings relative to a female holding a HS degree. These results could be influenced by two factors, first, technical and technological studies are undervalued in Colombia. In other words, people do not perceived the aggregated value of having a technical or technological degree and thus prefer to pursue a BA. This could be driven by a low demand of people with this degree in favor of sub-employed BA degree holders. Second, because only 2% of the sample holds a T degree, the observations are not providing reliable information. Both factors explain why these coefficients did not provide convincing results.

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Self-consumption of PV electricity with active demand side management: The GEDELOS-PV system

Self-consumption of PV electricity with active demand side management: The GEDELOS-PV system

ABSTRACT: Because of the recent technological developments within the field of power conditioning and the progressive decrease of incentives for PV electricity in grid-connected markets, new operation modes for PV systems should be explored beyond the traditional maximization of PV electricity feed-in. We have developed the GeDELOS-PV system as an example of added value for PV electricity which arises from the combination of modern hybrid PV technology with a lead-acid battery storage system and Demand Side Management strategies in the residential sector. We carry out simulations for long-time experiments (yearly studies) and real measurements for short and mid-time experiments (daily and weekly studies). Results show that the relationship between electricity flows and storage capacity is not linear and therefore, it becomes an important design criterion.

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Economic and environmental benefits of optimized hybrid renewable energy generation systems at Jeju National University, South Korea

Economic and environmental benefits of optimized hybrid renewable energy generation systems at Jeju National University, South Korea

Three evaluation guidelines are used to evaluate the suggested configuration [34]. First, the renewable fraction of the suggested configuration presented by the simulation should be 1.00 in order to minimize the dependency on the traditional grid system. Second, COE, which is defined as “the consumed cost of a particular generation system in producing 1 kWh of electricity”, is used [34]. Third, NPC, which is “the total cost for establishing, replacing and operating the suggested system in the project lifetime”, is employed [35]. The current study employed 25 years for the lifetime of the project.

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