Island County EDC Virtual meeting

State of the local labor market:

Pandemic edition

Island County EDC Virtual meeting

April 8, 2021

Anneliese Vance-Sherman, Ph.D.

Regional Labor Economist

Washington Employment Security Department Labor Market and Economic Analysis

[email protected]

Unemployment and

Labor Force

Washington’s unemployment rate was 5.6% in February 2021

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

19 90 19 91 19 92 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 18 20 19 20 20

Washington

Seattle MD

Island County

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2018 6.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4% 5.0% 5.4% 5.0% 5.1% 4.8% 4.9% 5.3% 5.5%

2019 5.9% 6.1% 5.4% 5.0% 4.7% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 4.5% 4.4% 4.5% 4.4%

2020 5.4% 5.3% 5.7% 16.3% 11.8% 9.6% 10.4% 8.2% 7.2% 5.8% 6.4% 6.6%

2021 6.2% 6.5%

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

17%

Unem ploym ent rat e ( NS A) Isl and C ount y, 2018 -2021

The size of the statewide labor force dropped with the Covid-19 pandemic

3,835,229

2,500,000 2,700,000 2,900,000 3,100,000 3,300,000 3,500,000 3,700,000 3,900,000 4,100,000

1990 1991 1992 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020

How well are people connecting with work?

This is what “unprecedented” Initial UI

claims looks like

Weekly Initial Claims are “leveling out”

(they are now only at “great recession” levels)

Employment Security Department, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

5,339 11,398

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Washington state

2019 2020 2021

Island County UI claims has followed a similar pattern

66 74

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

202 1 1 202 1 3 202 1 5 202 1 7 202 1 9 202 1 11

In itia l c la im s

claim week

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance March 1, 2020 to March 20, 2021

Island

Continued Claims for UI

Total UI recipients has dropped over the year, but the number of long term unemployed is increasing

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

4/25 5/16 6/6 6/27 7/18 8/8 8/29 9/19 10/10 10/31 11/21 12/12 1/2 1/23 2/13 3/6

Total Continued Claims, State of Washington

EB PEUC PUA Regular

Continued claims by occupation:

2021 week 7

16,378 15,710 13,470

11,119 10,455 7,792

6,989 5,057 5,003 4,919 3,640 3,467 3,124 2,565 2,470 2,396 1,860 1,708 1,356 971 887 353 85

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Food Preparation and Serving

Construction and Extraction Management Transportation and Material Moving Office and Administrative Support Production Sales and Related Personal Care and Service Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Healthcare Support Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

Business and Financial Operations Computer and Math Architecture and Engineering Education, Training, and Library Healthcare Practitioners and Technicians Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media Protective Service Community and Social Services Life, Physical, and Social Sciences Legal Occupations Military

Continued claims by industry:

2021 week 7

15,255 15,171 11,855

9,413 9,277 7,613 5,679

4,672 4,662 4,095 3,791 3,779 2,966 2,440 1,848 1,759 1,445 275 142 130

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Construction

Accommodation and food services Manufacturing Health care and social assistance Retail trade Administrative and waste services Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Educational services Transportation and warehousing Professional and technical services Wholesale trade Other services, except public administration Arts, entertainment, and recreation Information Government Real estate and rental and leasing Finance and insurance Utilities Management of companies and enterprises Mining

Nationally, an estimated 23% of workers are still working from home due to Covid-19

shifts in the workplace

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan 2021P

percent working from home due to COVID-19

Men, 16 years and over Women, 16 years and over Total, 16 years and over

And more than 5% of workers surveyed are currently unable to work due to Covid-19 employer impacts

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan 2021P

Men, 16 years and over Women, 16 years and over Total, 16 years and over

Payroll employment

Total employment has begun to return,

but the rate of growth is changing

The Covid-19 economy has affected sectors differently

Employment Security Department, Washington Employment Estimates (not seasonally adjusted), February 2021 Construction

Retail Information

Leisure & Hospitality

Other Services

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110% Total

Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Retail

Transportation & Utilities Information

Financial Activities Professional & Business Services

Education 7 Health Services Leisure & Hospitality

Other Services

Government

Washington state ^February ₂₀₂₁ ^{Jan 2021 –} _{Feb 2021} ^{Feb 20 –} _{Feb 21} ^{Feb 20 –} _{Feb 21}

Total 3,265,000 33,500 -213,800 -6.1%

Construction 217,300 4,000 1,200 0.6%

Manufacturing 257,800 400 -32,700 -11.3%

Wholesale 127,700 700 -7,900 -5.8%

Retail 396,500 -2,100 7,600 2.0%

Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 112,300 300 -3,600 -3.1%

Information 151,800 -200 3,600 2.4%

Financial Activities 157,000 1,200 -4,600 -2.8%

Professional & Business Services 427,800 4,300 -9,100 -2.1%

Education & Health Services 508,300 4,900 -3,500 -0.7%

Leisure & Hospitality 241,800 17,100 -96,200 -28.5%

Other Services 114,500 800 -17,000 -12.9%

Government 547,000 2,100 -51,300 -8.6%

Island County

Prelim Revised Revised Jan-21 Feb-20 Feb-20

NAICS Industry Title Feb-21 Jan-21 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-21 Feb-21

Total Nonfarm 16,680 16,830 17,320 -150 -640 -3.7%

Total Private 12,260 12,410 12,530 -150 -270 -2.2%

Goods Producing 1,940 1,940 1,970 0 -30 -1.5%

Mining, Logging, and Construction 1,170 1,170 1,140 0 30 2.6%

Manufacturing 770 770 830 0 -60 -7.2%

Service Providing 14,740 14,890 15,350 -150 -610 -4.0%

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,590 2,660 2,590 -70 0 0.0%

Retail Trade 2,030 2,100 2,020 -70 10 0.5%

Information and Financial Activities 820 830 840 -10 -20 -2.4%

Professional and Business Services 1,450 1,470 1,400 -20 50 3.6%

Education and Health Services 2,300 2,260 2,440 40 -140 -5.7%

Leisure and Hospitality 2,270 2,330 2,380 -60 -110 -4.6%

Government 4,420 4,420 4,790 0 -370 -7.7%

Federal Government 1,290 1,290 1,310 0 -20 -1.5%

State and Local Government 3,130 3,130 3,480 0 -350 -10.1%

State and Local Government Education 1,310 1,320 1,600 -10 -290 -18.1%

Nonfarm Employment Estimates, Not Seasonally Adjusted Oak Harbor Micropolitan Statistical Area (Island County)

Data benchmarked through September 2020

Change

Thank you!