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This work analysed intentions of change in farmed area under current CAP and regionalized scenarios. Particularly, the first one concerned farmers’ intentions under the assumption of continuance of the current policy scenarios, i.e. in a scenarios which may be considered of reference or “baseline”; the second one, called regionalized, investigate farmers’ intentions as response or reaction to the regionalization introduction, i.e. in order to isolate the policy changes effect. The most common intention stated by the sample, in both scenarios, has been to not change the farmland dimension. This result seems to be in line with the high level of uncertainty that characterizes this implementation phase of the reform. This survey results point out two important matters. On the one hand, regionalized payments increase the intentions to change in all directions, i.e. increasing the intention to reduce the farmland size of those farmers who want to reduce it, and raising the intention to increase the farmed area of those farmers who want to increase it. On the other hand, farmers have a positive perceptions and expectations towards the implementation of the new measure, testified by the higher number of farmer stating the intention to increase farmland size compared to those who want to decrease more the farmed area. This could reveal higher farmers' WTP for the land due to a higher marginal value associated. It could be seen as a general increase of land exchange which would lead to better allocation of the resource, i.e. to more efficient land market.

Most of the variables found as determinants of farmers’ intentions to change farmland endowment through MNL implementation reinforce the existing literature on the topic. Socio-economic characteristics of the farmer, such as age, education and living at the farm seem to play an important role in influencing the intentions to change the farm size. The age of the farmer has been considered in literature as a critical variable for structural decisions taken in the farm. In fact, older operators are more likely to decrease the farmland size or exit from farming while younger are more likely to increase the size or start off new activities (Stiglbauer and Weiss, 2000; Kimhi and Bollman, 1999; Weiss, 1999). Results of the present work, confirming literature, shows

as older is the farmer and less is the likely to increase the farmed area as consequence of the regionalized payments scheme introduction. The education level of the farmer has resulted significant to increase the farmed area. On the one hand this result confirms some literature which considers this variable as a factor that may increase the farm efficiency and profitability, particularly when the farmer received an agriculture-specific schooling education (Weiss, 1999); on the other hand, in other works it has resulted in a increase of the probability to decrease the farm size and this has been interpreted as driven by the potential for a better labour opportunity outside farming due to higher education level (Goddard et al., 1993; Stiglbauer and Weiss, 2000). In our case results are coherent with the increase of efficiency and profitability of farms run by farmers with higher education level. It can be also consequence of the general economic crisis which have contracted the off farm job opportunity during recently years.

Farm dimension and the intentions to adopt new technologies have resulted to be important factors associated with the farm size changes; particularly, the literature highlights that larger farms are supported by economies of scale and better suited to expand the farmland size (Bartolini and Viaggi, 2013). In the present work, larger farms are less likely to expand the farmed area. Several justifications of this result, in contrast with the previous argumentation, can be found. On the one hand, the new Cap reform introduces payments reductions targeted to large-scale farms because considered already efficient. So, it can be interpret as a response to the policy reform which reduces payments to big farmer to assist better small ones. On the other hand, other explanation of this result may be found in the fact that farms already big enough to benefit from economies of scale have less incentives to expand more the farm dimension than small and medium farms which would benefit from economies of scale from a larger size. In contrast, the intention to adopt new technologies, hence to innovate is positively correlated with the intention to increase the farm size, confirming the existent literature. The same results are shown for the variables corresponding to the internet use for selling products, highlighting the importance to adopt this new channel in order to increase the dimension of the market in which to sell production output. In addition, it can be seen as proxy of better farm endowment in terms of technology. The presence of outstanding contracts to sell products have a

negative effect on the intentions to decrease the farmland size and is in line with what found in others works (Bartolini and Viaggi, 2013).

Farm changes can be also affected by the type of output produced. The profitability of crops and their market prices are very important factors explaining farm size changes (Stiglbauer and Weiss, 2000). In this work results have highlight that carrying out a livestock activity is significant to be willing to increase the farm dimension in the baseline scenarios and this may be due to the higher profitability of this specialization and to the coupled payments received for this specialization under the historical payment scheme. On the contrary, under the regionalized scenario, carrying out a fruit production have a positive effect on the intention to increase farmland; this could be due to the fact that permanent crops will be included among eligible crops. Others choices regarding payments coupled to specific specializations will be taken at national level during 2014. The cereals specialization variable is positively correlated with the intention to decrease the farmed area under the hypothesis of introduction of regionalized payments and this can be seen as in line with the reductions which could take place for these crops as a result of homogenization of payments. This result is also in line with the decrease of the direct payments expected for cereals specialization and consequently of the profitability of this specialization as a consequence of the regionalization of payments.

The location of the farm reflects operators` opportunities both inside and outside farming, influenced by the proximity of city and the natural conditions (Pietola et al., 2003; Kimhi and Bollman, 1999). In our case, farmers which exercise their activity in mountain area have higher probability to increase the farmed area. This is in contrast with the literature which allocates to this disadvantaged region less probability to increase the farm size. The results of this study can be explaining by the harmonization of the unit entitlements value between farms and zones potentially expected by the reform. In fact, farmers located in mountain areas equalling the payments level of the plain will reach a important increase with respect to the payments previously received. Size and composition of the household, such as the number of the family workers, the presence of children or male rather than old members or females may result in a higher propensity to increase the farm size (Kimhi and Bollman, 1999). On the one hand, the age of the family members, particularly the presence of members older than

65, results negatively correlated with the intention to expand the farm size, corroborating the literature. On the other hand, the number of household members working full time and part time affect positively the intentions to decrease the farmed area not confirming the literature. Farms characterized by a predominant presence of family labour force, employed full or part time would want to diversify it. In line with this, the literature confirms that technological developments of an area can lead to a decrease of the employment into the agricultural sector (Barkley, 1990).

Farmers with land rented-in can change quickly dimensions, in both directions, respect those with only property. In addition, the rental activity follows the economic convenience of the land use while the property may be driven by other reasons. The literature confirms the importance of the rental agreement to adapt farmed area to the needs (Vranken and Swinnen, 2006).