Ética:

The renewable energy share in the energy used in transport in the EU is expected to grow from 1.4 % in 2005 to about 11.4% by 2020, above the 10% binding target, if considering multiple counting for electricity and biofuels used in transport, as required by the Directive 2009/28/EC.

Table 10: Expected trend in the use of renewable energy in transport in the EU

2005 2010 2010* 2015 2020 [PJ] [PJ] [PJ] [PJ] [PJ] Bioethanol 22.5 119.9 118.9 208.0 305.9 Biodiesel 94.5 448.0 440.4 600.5 873.4 Other biofuels 8.3 8.8 7.8 11.2 31.1 Biofuels 125.4 576.8 567.2 819.7 1210.4 RES electricity 45.5 54.3 46.6 82.5 135.0 Total RES 170.8 631.1 615.9 902.3 1345.5

Total RES (multiple

counting) 173.1 649.9 645.0 951.7 1496.4

Figure 14: Expected trend in the use of renewable energy in transport in the EU

According to the NREAPs projections (Szabo et al 2011, Banja et al 2013), biofuels contribution will reach around 1,210 PJ by 2020, growing from 125 PJ (1%) in 2005 and 586 PJ (4.8%) in 2010. In 2010, the renewable energy use in transport in the EU increased to 615.9 PJ, 2.4% below the NREAPs projected use of 631.1 PJ, considering multiple counting for electricity and biofuels used in transport. The share of renewable energy transport in the EU arrived at 5.0% in 2005 to about 11.4% by 2020, above the 10% binding target, which is about the expected share to be achieved (EC, 2011d).

The total contribution of renewable energy in transport, without multiple counting will be 1,346 PJ (32.1 Mtoe) and 1,496 PJ (35.7 Mtoe) with multiple counting of electricity use in road transport and biofuels from wastes, residues, non-food cellulosic material and lignocellulosic material (biofuels defined in the article 21.2 of the Directive 2009/28/EC). The renewable electricity in transport is expected to increase from 45.5 PJ (1.1 Mtoe) in 2005 to 135 PJ (3.2 Mtoe) in 2020. Of this, the renewable electricity in road transport should have a significant increase, increasing from 0.5 PJ (12 ktoe) in 2005 to 29.3 PJ (701 ktoe) in 2020. The leading MS in the use of renewable energy in transport in 2010 was Germany with 134 PJ (3.2 Mtoe), followed by France with 110 PJ (2.6 Mtoe), Italy with 69 PJ (1.7 Mtoe), Spain with 61.4 PJ (1.5 Mtoe) and UK with 50.4 PJ (1.2 Mtoe). In 2020 Germany remain the leading MS with 257.1 PJ (6.1 Mtoe) together with UK with 187.2 PJ (4.5 Mtoe), France with 134.6 PJ (4 Mtoe), Spain with 170.1 PJ (3.2 Mtoe) and Italy with 121.4 PJ (2.9 Mtoe) (Figure 15). According to the NREAPs, the country showing the highest renewable share in transport for 2020 will be Finland with 20% followed by Sweden with 13.8% and Germany with 13.2%.

2.5.1. Biofuels

The analysis of the NREAPs shows that biofuel use in transport is expected to reach about 1210 PJ (28.9 Mtoe) in 2020 in the EU. In comparison, according to the NREAPs, biofuel consumption was 130.0 PJ (3.1 Mtoe) in 2005 (Szabo et al 2011, Manja et al 2013). Biofuel use in transport increased to 566.8 PJ (13537 ktoe) in 2010, which is 10.0 PJ (240 ktoe) or 1.7% below the expected contribution of biofuels use in transport of 576.8 PJ (13777 ktoe) in 2010 (EC, 2011d). 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2005 2010 2010 Progress 2015 2020 PJ

Table 11: Estimated contribution of biofuels in the transport sector in the EU

2005 2010 2010* 2015 2020

[PJ] [PJ] [PJ] [PJ] [PJ]

Bioethanol/bio-ETBE 22.5 119.9 118.9 208.0 305.9

of which biofuels art 21.2 0.0 1.5 3.9 7.8 28.3

of which imported 4.9 32.8 35.0 85.7 134.7

Biodiesel 94.5 448.0 440.4 600.5 873.4

of which biofuels art

21.2 0.9 14.1 22.4 27.0 61.9

of which imported 2.1 156.6 153.2 178.3 324.3

Other biofuels 8.3 8.8 7.8 11.2 31.1

of which biofuels art 21.2 0.6 1.9 2.3 5.2 17.2

Total art 21.2 1.4 17.6 28.6 40.0 107.3

Total import 7.0 189.3 188.2 264.0 459.0

Total biofuels 125.4 576.8 567.2 819.7 1210.4

Biofuel use in the transport sector is highly focused on first-generation biofuels that make up about 91.1% of all biofuels projected to be used by Member States. The greatest contribution in 2020 is expected to come from biodiesel with 873 PJ (20.9 Mtoe), followed by bioethanol/bio-ETBE with 306 PJ (7.3 Mtoe) and other biofuels (such as biogas/biomethane, vegetable oils, etc.) with 31 PJ (0.7 Mtoe). In 2020, first generation biofuels are still expected to provide the highest contribution to the total RES use in transport compared with a share of 25.3% bioethanol, 72.2% biodiesel and 2.6% other biofuels. In comparison, in 2005, first generation biofuels had a share of 18.0% bioethanol, 75.4% biodiesel and 6.6% other biofuels. With respect to the renewable energy use planned in transport in the EU in 2020 (single counting), the highest share should come from bioenergy (reaching 90.0% biofuels in 2020 will provide an energy amount representing 11.9% of the total renewable energy generation). Contribution of biofuels to the overall gross final energy consumption will change from 0.2% in 2005, 1.1% in 2010 to 2.4% in 2020.

Table 12: Estimated share of RES and biofuels in the transport sector in the EU

2005 2010 2010* 2015 2020

[%] [%] [%] [%] [%]

Share of biofuels (single

counting) 1.0 4.4 4.4 6.2 9.2

Share of art 21.2 in biofuels 1.2 3.0 5.0 4.9 8.9

Share of import biofuels 5.6 32.8 33.2 32.2 37.9

Share of biofuels (double

counting) 1.0 4.5 4.6 6.5 10.1

Share of RES in transport 1.3 5.0 5.0 7.2 11.4

Contribution of biofuels to the gross final energy consumption in transport has increased from 1.0% in 2010 to 4.7% in 2010, which is above the NREAPs expected contribution of biofuels of 4.5%. The contribution to the biofuels that will be consumed in 2020 in the transport sector only is projected to be 10.1%, biofuels contribution alone (without including renewable electricity) overcoming the 10% target imposed by the RES Directive.

Figure 15: Biofuels used in transport in the EU in 2020

The leading countries in the field of biofuel use in transport will be Germany with 229.1 PJ (5.4 Mtoe), UK with 176.1 PJ (4.2 Mtoe), France with 153.2 PJ (3.7 Mtoe), Spain with 146.7 PJ (3.5 Mtoe), Italy with 105.9 PJ (2.5 Mtoe) and Poland with 82.4 PJ (2.0 Mtoe). These MS will account for 73.7 % of the total biofuel use in transport in the EU.

The main biodiesel users will be Germany with 229.1 PJ (4.4 Mtoe), Spain with 129.8 PJ (3.1 Mtoe), France with 119.3 PJ (2.9 Mtoe), UK with 103.1 PJ (4.5 Mtoe), Italy with 78.7 PJ (1.9 ktoe) and Poland with 60.8 PJ (1.5 Mtoe). The main bio-ethanol users should be UK with 73.0 PJ (1743 ktoe), Germany with 35.9 PJ (0.9 Mtoe), France with 27.2 PJ (0.7 Mtoe), Italy with 25.1 PJ (0.6 Mtoe), Sweden with 19.5 PJ (0.5 Mtoe) and Poland with 18.9 PJ (0.5 Mtoe).

2.5.2. Biofuels from wastes, residues, ligno-cellulosic material

Biofuels produced from waste, residues, ligno-cellulosic material (biofuels defined in Article 21.2 of the Renewable Energy Directive) are expected to be available at commercial scale by 2020 and have a small contribution to the biofuels used in transport.

The use of biofuels Art 21.2 is expected to reach 107.3 PJ (2,564 ktoe) and a share of 8.9% of the biofuel use in the EU in 2020 in comparison with 1.4 PJ (35 ktoe) and a share of 1.2% in 2005 (Szabo et al 2011, Banja et al 2013). Until now, the use of Art. 21.2 biofuels was related to the biofuels produced from wastes and residues. Their use increased to 28.6 PJ (684 ktoe) in 2010, 11.1 PJ (265 ktoe) or 63.1% above the expected contribution of 17.6 PJ (419 ktoe) for 2010 (EC, 2011d). The contribution of Art 21.2 biofuels in the biofuels used in transport (single counting) increased from 1.2% in 2005 to 5.0% in 2010 and this is expected to increase to 8.9% in 2020. Their share to the gross final energy consumption in transport increased from 0.02% in 2005 to 0.5% in 2010 and this is projected to reach 1.6% in 2020. The main contributor to biofuels from wastes, residues, non-food cellulosic material, and lignocellulosic material in 2020 should be biodiesel with a contribution of 57.7%, decreasing from 60.9% in 2005, followed by bioethanol with 26.4% and the other biofuels Art 21.1 that count for the remaining 16%, in comparison with 39.1% in 2005. Article 21(2) biofuels are expected to include in 2020: 61.9 PJ (1.5 Mtoe) as biodiesel produced from wastes, residues, non-food cellulosic material, and lignocellulosic material, with a share of 7.1% of biodiesel;

0 50 100 150 200 250 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV _MT NL PL PT _RO SE SI SK UK PJ

28.3 PJ (0.7 Mtoe) art 21.2 bioethanol, representing 9.2% of bioethanol use in 2020; and 17.2 PJ (0.4 Mtoe) other biofuels Art. 21(2), with a share of 55.3% of other biofuels.

Several countries, however, do not expect to have any contribution from biofuels from waste, residues, non-food cellulosic material and lignocellulosic material (Austria, Estonia, Greece, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Slovenia and UK) while others should have a negligible consumption (Germany, France, Ireland, Portugal). Denmark and Malta expect to have the entire consumption of biofuels coming from article 21.2 biofuels.

Although the contribution of biofuels from wastes, residues, non-food cellulosic material, and lignocellulosic material shall be considered to be twice that made by other biofuels, the availability of such biofuels will depend on the advancements in the technology and cost reduction. Therefore, in the next future, the majority of article 21.2 biofuels could be produced from wastes and residues.

2.5.3. Biofuels from import

The NREAP data show that a significant amount of biofuels are expected to be imported in 2020 in order to reach the 10% binding target for renewable energy use in transport.

The amount of biofuels that are expected to be imported in 2020 will be 459 PJ (11.1 Mtoe) corresponding to 37.9% of the total biofuels that will be used that year and 3.5% of the energy that will be consumed in the transport sector. In comparison, the amount of biofuels imported in 2005 was 7 PJ (168 ktoe) corresponding to 5.6% of the total biofuels that were used that year and 0.1% of the energy that was consumed in the transport sector (Szabo et al 2011, Banja et al 2013). In 2010, the use of biofuels from import in transport reached 188.2 PJ (4414 ktoe) in 2010, which is only 1.1 PJ (108 ktoe) or 0.6% below the expected contribution of 189.3 PJ (4522 ktoe) in 2010 (EC, 2011d).

The contribution of imported biofuels to the gross final energy consumption in transport increased from 0.1% in 2005 to 1.5% in 2010, above the expected share of 1.4% in 2010. The contribution of biofuels from import to the energy that should be consumed in 2020 in the transport sector only is expected to be 3.5%. Biodiesel will remain the main contributor with a share decreasing to 92.0% in the total value of biofuels imports in 2020, while bioethanol imports will increase to reach a share of 29%. However, it is not clear how much biofuel should be domestically produced in the EU, how much should come from internal EU trade and how much should be imported as biofuels from third countries to the EU. Apart from this, some raw material is expected to be imported and afterwards processed within the EU.

The share of biofuels import at the level of MS is expected to vary from 0% in several countries (Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia) to 100% import in other countries (Denmark and Luxembourg). A number of countries should import more than 50% of their expected consumption of biofuels (Germany, Ireland, Malta, The Netherlands and the UK).