20.- ESTRATEGIA Y ANÁLISIS DE UNA CAMPAÑA ELECTORAL La estrategia en la comunicación de una campaña electoral se establece siempre
3. Por último, la tercera etapa trata de los contenidos connotativos
An S-N curve defines cycles to failure of structures subjected to cyclic loadings. The S-N curve can be derived from either direct experimental or follow the API recommended numbers. Generally, the API Class X is a recommended code for the riser design and it can be expressed by the following equation.
( )
mN A SCF
... (21)where
N = cycle to failure (cycles) S = stress range, (MPa) m = empirical numbers
Table 3 S-N curve parameter for API Class-X APIClass-X
A 2.50*1013
m 3.74
SCF 1 .0
7.8. F
gue life (yea bers of stresbers of stres
Figure
Life
, the annua ore, fatigue
(%/year) ar)
s cycle in 1 ss cycle to f
11 SN curv
al fatigue da life is the r
D F L =
year failure
ve (API Clas
amage will reverse of to
n
ulated by u e in one yea
8. Cas
stress at th away +/-ctives of the d estimate on the FPS a, West Aus gate the st y analysis w
extreme w he critical s
10% of th rs, such as
ll be chan l wave data eight. The p bins. After
force at th mean fatigue
Figure 12 B
dies
w of the
e study are fatigue life SO model in
stralia. The tress profile will be perfo
wave load w segment. In e life of riser
Block diagr
Project
e to identify e of the ste n Orcaflex most likely es and ide rmed to see
will be gene n this case, depth from e, drifting d serve the i assified into based on th ve trains fro Lastly, the f
r.
ram represen
y the critica eel catenary to represen y sea states entify the c ek the optim
erated to ob the FPSO the mean distance, sim
impacts to o bins which he statistical
m 4 directio fatigue life
nts the appr
al section, y riser. The nt a typical
will be use critical poin mized config
bserve the t is assumed position. In mulation tim
the fatigu h are create l wave data ons will be
distribution
roach for pr
seek the op e study sta l FPSO use ed in the sim nt on the r gurations.
tensile and d to be able n addition, me and nu ue damage.
ed for certa a will be ass
Figure 13 B
Figure 14 B
Block diagr
Block diagr
ram represen
ram represen
nts the appr
nts the appr
roach for pr
roach for pr
roject (2).
roject (3).
38
39
8.2. General Information about the Timor Sea
The Timor Sea is the relatively shallow sea bounded from the north by the Timor Island, from the south by Australia and from the west by the Indian Ocean. Beneath, considerable oil and gas reserves are laid. Nowadays, numbers of offshore production platforms and drilling rigs are in operations in the shallow water depth areas and also trench in the deepwater regions.
Montara field is an oil development filed operated by PTTEP Australasia in the shelf region of the Timor Sea. This field is situated 250 km southwest of the Timor Island and 685 km west of the Darwin city in Australia. The metocean data have been collected extensively in Montara and Jabiru field which is another field nearby. The measuring data provides the fundamental information about wind, wave and current which are essential to evaluate the riser design.
For the Timor Sea, key oceanographic features are listed below.
The Pacific-Indian ocean flow likely generates persistent west to west-south currents.
The monsoons are the controlling factor of metocean in the Timor Sea for the short return period wind and wave. Tide is a dominant factor to control the oceanic current.
The Coriolis’ effect is comparatively weak due to the low latitude and the tropical cyclones are likely immature. However, small but intense tropical cyclones could control the long return period waves and winds.
Figu
Fig
ure 16 Deep
gure 15 Loc
p water area
cation of Mo
as in the Tim
ontara field
mor Sea (wa
, Timor Sea
ater depth >
a.
> 500 Meter
40 s).
8.3. W
will be useFigure
Waves St
fic wave me opriate mea the northea rded in 2, 3, ober 1983 to
ed in the stu o January 1 udy is availa
g developm
in the T
s existed in e data for th m). Most of rly intervals 993, but the able only fr
ment fields in
Timor Se
the Montar he Montara
the data ta s. The meas e full year o rom Decemb
n the Timor
ea
ra area. The Field is the aken are om
surement is of direction ber 1995 – D
r Sea.
e best availa e data in Jab mnidirection done over nal wave dat
December 1
41 able and biru field nal wave 10 years ta which 1996.
42
Wave Climate
The ambient wave climate for the Montara field is composed of separated sea and swell waves, with a wind-sea/swell separation of 9 seconds (0.111 Hz) found from the plotted Jabiru wave spectra. The combination using the square root of the sum of the square wave height results in the total waves.
2 2
total sea swell
Hs Hs Hs ... (24)
Sea Waves
Sea waves are waves locally generated by wind. As such, the sea wave climate is very closely allied with the summer westerlies and winter easterlies. Transient variations to these persistent seasonal regimes are caused by the various storm types, which occasionally affect the region. As a result of the very long fetched storm, sea waves may have periods ranging from 2 or 4 seconds to as long as 6 or 8 seconds.
Swell Waves
Surface wind waves which are generated by remote storms (i.e. 400 - 7000 km away) and propagate to a site independently of the storm, are known as swell. In the Southern Hemisphere, swell results predominantly from storms in the Southern Ocean or the southern portion of the Indian Ocean. After generation, swell may propagate towards the equator, gradually dispersing and decreasing in amplitude before arriving at the Timor Sea from the southwest. Since longer period swell suffer less dissipation, periods of long-travelled swell are usually greater than 14 seconds commonly ranging up to 20 seconds and occasionally exceeding 22 seconds. Shorter period swell (6 to 10 seconds), may result from tropical cyclones, and from winter easterlies over the Arafura Sea and eastern portions of the Timor Sea.
Maximu
ny sea stat m individual t wave, wit ve period. T loyed in this
al Variabi
hly variatio ve rose dia al wind dire o predomin
18 Swells f
e Waves
from south I
rized by a ights (EHma
onding perio ations of G
max h westerly s erly from A
Indian Ocea
t, period and ves or sea seas prevail April to ear
an to Timor
significant e up to twi longer than ) for non-cy
...
d direction waves will ling from D rly Novemb
r Sea.
t wave hei ice as high n the signif yclonic wav
...
are shown closely fo December to
ber, before
43
back to th n the summe rally form ant swell di me shorter p nths with
ding to the
Figure 19
very small er months, mains from
ll will occas est waves onths for win
ve rose diag
nd wave co ttributable t Montara Fie
sured at Jabi
may occasio ropical distu ghout the y
a lesser de m the east in
Figure 20 MMonthly waave rose diaagrams meassured in Jabbiru field.
45
46
Non-Cyclonic Storm Waves
The summer and winter monsoonal and trade wind surges also generate the strongest non-cyclonic storm waves, which could be coupled with the perennial west-southwest background swell component. It could result in the maximum non-cyclonic total sea states. These non-non-cyclonic total sea states are the controlling storm type for the shorter return periods less than 5 years. Applying a minimum total significant wave height threshold of ≥ 2.7 m (annual), ≥ 2.7 m (summer) and ≥ 2.5 m (winter) to the measured ambient wave database in the Montara Field and excluding any tropical cyclone events resulted in the annual extreme events. These extreme wave events are then subjected to the Conditional Weibull extreme analysis technique. The corresponding parameters such as the extreme significant wave heights (Hs), return period mean wave periods (Tm), spectral peak periods (Tp) and average zero crossing periods (Tz) are derived from the storm peak correlations and shown in the table below.
Table 1 Return period of non-cyclonic winds, waves and currents in Montana field
8.4. FPSO Simulation Model
The FPSO model is constructed based on information derived from an existing Montara FPSO and the specifications are described in the following table. For the hydrodynamic parameters such as the displacement and wave load RAO will be adopted from the typical ship-shaped FPSO. These detail information of FPSO’s hydrodynamic parameters will be provided in the appendix.
1 2 5 10 25
Significant Wave Height Hs m 3.52 3.82 4.15 4.37 4.62
Spectral Peak Wave Period Tp s 9.66 10.07 10.49 10.76 11.06
Spectral Mean Wave Period Tm s 7.4 7.71 8.04 8.25 8.48
Average Zero Crossing Period Tz s 6.75 7.04 7.33 7.52 7.73 Maximum Single Wave Height EHmax m 6.55 7.11 7.73 8.12 8.59
Period of Maximum Wave THmax s 8.52 8.87 9.25 9.48 9.75
Return Periods (Yrs) Non‐Cyclonic Annual Return
Periods Parameter Unit
Figgure 21 Montara FPSOO.
47
Figure 22 Montara FPPSO specififications.
48
8.5. R
The assum riser and s (ERW) or
Riser Sim
mption for t steel tubula r double- su
Figure 2
Figure 2
mulation
the riser is ar will be m ubmerged a
23 FPSO m
24 FPSO mo
n Model
that X70 c manufacture
arc welded
model (Side v
odel (Front
carbon steel d by either (DSAW). T
view).
view).
l will be us the electric The materia
sed to fabri c-resistance al specificat
49 icate the e welded tions are
50 assumed to conform with the established industry specifications for the minimum tensile strength, service temperature, fatigue resistance, internal corrosion and wear resistance.
Table 4 Pipeline specifications
Steel grade X70
Outer diameter (13') 0.3302 (m) Inner diameter (11') 0.2794 (m) Mass per unit length 0.173 (te/m)
SMYS 70 Kips
Bending stiffness 4.60E+04 (kN.m^2) Axial stiffness 4.66E+06 (kN.m^2)
Poisson ratio 0.293
To justify he pipe specifications above, calculation is made according to the API practices. The allowable stress in pipe, fracture toughness requirement, riser deflection, and collapse pressure and collapse propagation will be checked with the pipe properties. Below is the simulated case when 1 meter wave with about 6-8 second return period is approaching the FPSO.
Allowable Stress in Plain Pipe
The figure below illustrates combined stress profiles from top to bottom of riser. The minimum, maximum and mean of von Mises stress are plotted in the graph in blue, green and black respectively. The red line is the limiting stress for steel pipe which is greater than the combined stress for every pipe section. The Riser API 2RP Utilization, reported as percentage of pipe stress over the allowable stress, is averaged at 0.4 with in a range of +/- 0.2. So, it proves that the purposed riser can withstand the typical sea condition.
Fig
Minimum The minim fracture a mechanics loaded me temperatu
gure 25 Plot
Fig
m Fracture mum fractu at the expe s based con embers such ure is anoth
t of maximu
gure 26 Plot
Toughness ure toughne ected stress nsiderations h as the con her critical
um von Mis
t of riser uti
s
ess of mate s level ove s are appro nnections an factor influ
ses stress an
ilization (AP
erial should er anticipat opriate and nd welded s uenced stee
nd allowable
PI RP 2RD)
d be sufficie ted service more impo seams. In ad l behavior
e pipe stress
).
ent to avoi life. The
id brittle fracture r highly-w service
e brittle.
52 Therefore, the careful testing for steel toughness should be performed to compare the results between different testing methods. The testing procedures such as Charpy test, CTOD, drop weight tear test are standard test for steel used in the pipeline industry.
Riser Maximum Deflection
The maximum riser deflection is specified to prevent the excessive high bending stress in riser which may cause riser leakage and failure. Even when the riser stress is under the manufacture’s recommended, the larger riser deflection is needed to be controlled to prevent multiple risers from interfering and crashing. Therefore, the riser system may include additional equipment such as tensioners, flexible connections and telescopic joints to provide bending and rotating abilities of the riser. These tools should be designed at the worse condition in the extreme case analysis.
Two figures illustrated below indicated smoothly change of the curvature and bending radius of riser. The maximum bending stress occurred at 2000 meter where the riser is gently approaches the sea bed. The maximum curvature this particular point is averaged at 0.0006 rad/m which is the relatively low when compare with other stress component. Therefore, the planned riser configuration with this trajectory seems to be applicable in the real operations.
Pipe Colla ion for colla e ability of s during the al factors su material. S
Figure
Figure
ure apse pressu f riser to w e service lif uch as abil So, these va
e 27 Bendin
e 28 Riser cu
ng radius pro
urvature pro
he external h e hydrostat ically, the c ricity, aniso sult in trem
ofile.
ofile.
hydrostatic tic pressure collapse res otropy as w mendous di
pressure sh e experience
istance is in well as the
precise es pressure o pressure P pressure.
timation of of riser is g Pa and the sa
f the collaps given by Pc
afety factor
se pressure which is th r. The below
. However, he multiplic w is exampl
in the prac cation of th le calculatio
ctical way, he allowable
on for pipe
54 collapse e design collapse
Figure 29 PPipe collapsse pressure aand the net hydrostatic pressure.
55
56
9. Sensitivity Analysis
The sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the relationship between key design parameters and the riser internal stress. Several parameters such as the outside diameter, riser’s length, initial position, FPSO size, simulation time and the length per segment will be examined in this study. The study excludes wave drift motion effect in order to avoid model complexity and enormous time required for simulation, but the study will focus more on the effect due to the heave and pitch oscillating motions because they are believed as the primary factors influence to the fatigue life.
Table 5 Simulation parameters used in the base case Base case
Steel grade X70
SMYS 482E+3 kips
Wave height 1 m
Water period 6 sec
Wave direction Bow
Water depth (d) 1000 m
Horizontal departure (X) 3000 m
Riser length (L) 3300 m
Half span (l) 1756 m
Internal pressure at z =0 2500 psi
Fluid in riser Gas
Density of fluid 0.205 te/m^3
9.1. S
at the riser of the rise is highly eFrom the r design bec occurred i Although still a pre which is m
Sensitivit
ose of this s which is ab
n this study 5.0 inches.
tion. In add r top in whi er. Next is th
elevated bec
results, 1 in cause it pro in common a thicker pi eferable cho much greate
Figure 3
ty Analy
study is to id ble to resis y, the OD is
From the dition, two c ich the tensi he area arou cause the ris
nch wall thi ovides suffic
sea states ( ipe will resu oice becaus er than expe
30 Shape co
ysis: Out
dentify the st collapse set up in 5 results bel critical secti ile stress is und the tou ser is lifted cted field p
onfiguration ions are ide
extremely h chdown po off from th
e case 1) is t gth to withst hoop stress fatigue dam provide suff
roduction li
ns of the ste
ameter
tion and fin s well as m ases with th maller OD ntified on th high due th int where th e seabed.
the appropr tand the ma
= 347 MPa mage, a 1 in
ficient fatig ife (20 year
eel catenary
nd the optim minimizing e OD increa is the large he riser. Th e suspended he bending
riated choic aximum hoo a, using SF
ch thicknes gue life (11
rs).
F
Figure 31 M
no. OD
tivity (vary
ned stress (v n) Dama ge per year .98E-03
e diameter).
r Fatigue L 111
Figure 3
Figure 33
32 Mean axi
Mean bend
ial stress pro
ding stress p
ofile (vary o
profile (vary
outside diam
y outside di meter).
ameter).
59
9.2. S
amage of 60n period (20 s; whereas t
iod in realit ser. The is
tic fatigue tion of the 32 in order t
34 Mean hoo
ty Analy
tudy is to fin n which it sing the sam e length vari
ult in case 6 02 years w 0 years). H the random ty can gene sue of ran calculation steel caten to maximiz
op stress pro
ysis: Rise
nd the optim is able to me conditio ies from 3,3
6, the 1.32 which is con However, the e the fatigu
ofile (vary o
er Lengt
mal ration o minimize on as the pr
300 to 3,700
half-span r nsiderably l e model is itions with r stress resu states will all, this st ser using 1 e life.
outside diam
th
of the water annual fati revious stud 0 meters in
ratio offers longer than based on th larger wave ulting in the
be scrutini dy, 9 differ 50 meter in
a minimum n the expect he general s e height and e shorter fat
ized further ests that th d 11” ID sh
60 the half-ge at the
rent riser ncrement
m annual ted field sea state d shorter tigue life r in the he shape hould be
Case n
gure 35 Rise
ble 7 Cases
er shapes for
for riser len
Length (
r various le
ngth sensiti
ngth of rise
vity analysi
age per yea
9.41E-03
r Fatigue L
106
Figure 36
Figure 3
Mean von M
37 Mean ax
Mises stress
xial stress pr
s profiles (v
rofiles (vary
vary length
y length of r
of riser).
riser).
62
Figure 38
Figure 3
8 Mean ben
39 Mean ho
nding stress
oop stress pr
profiles (va
rofiles (vary
ary length o
y length of r f riser).
riser).
63
9.3. S
ndition. In by +10%, + med as conse s. In the ex nd 7.73 seco wave correla ately 100 m years. Ther to the stress wave conditithe results n being slac ess is domin ffset distanc n case 5. I meters, but it refore, it im
s and fatigu ion where th
shape conf h are derive
show that t cked. This i nated over t ce has signi
In case 5, t significant mplies that ue of the ris he occurren
figurations w
SO Initia
t riser desig ial position f the water wave drift m
ght and wav ed from the
the annual d is because
when vary t
al Positio
gn can surv ns are shift depth. The motion durin ve period a e extrapolat
damage incr the initial g stress. The ct to the fati O offset in
es the fatigu drift effect er, the study lity is consid
the initial of
on
ive from a ted from th ese horizont ng the extrem
are assumed tion of the
reases when position is e simulation igue damag creases by ue life from may have y is simulate
derably low
ffset of FPS
64 extreme he mean tal shifts me wave
Case
s (vary initia
(vary initia
Figure
Figure 4
e 42 Mean a
43 Mean be
axial stress p
ending stres
profile (var
s profile (va
ry initial off
ary initial o fset).
ffset).
66
9.4. S
results in motions we extreme w 50 meter. T ment of FPS mum fatigue
sensitivity cause the in
far off the induced hea the larger which make y the top fac O will be tre 2 and 3. Th 50 meters. T hich is appro
e 44 Mean h
analysis, i ncreased si e typical w ave motion
hydrodyna es riser life
cilities and emendously he study sug Therefore, oximately th
hoop stress
ysis: FPS
ion, the FPS ent sizes are ty and deter
increasing F ize shifts th wave freque due to the w amic dampin
much long the field req y suffered f ggests that a
the FPSO he same siz
profile (var
SO Size
SO’ size is e simulated rmine the o
FPSO size he natural f
encies. The wave excita ng force w ger. Howev
quirement.
from the gre a suitable si
size in this e of the Mo
ry initial off
varied from d in this stud
optimal FPS
will enhan frequency e erefore the ation. As w which can m
ver, the size On the othe eat effect of ize of FPSO s study is p ontara FPSO
fset).
m 100 to 35 dy to investi SO size resu
nce the stab
nce the stab