ACTIVIDAD 4: DIBUJO LIBRE

Social impacts of unrest may include a decline in the tourism industry; impacts on the national, regional, and local economies; media speculation and misreporting; self-evacuations; and

temporary psychological distress, particularly from frequent earthquakes (Johnston et al., 2002). Initial reactions to a volcanic unrest episode are likely to include fear, confusion, and denial, as seen at the town of Mammoth Lakes in Long Valley Caldera in 1982 (Mader & Blair, 1987), and in Pozzuoli (near the centre of Campi Flegrei Caldera) during unrest in 1970 when an evacuation order for 3,000 people was issued (Barberi et al., 1984). Repeated earthquakes can have a detrimental effect on nearby communities, leaving the population on edge and waiting for the seismic swarm to cease so they can respond to damage. Unrest may cause a heightened feeling of uncertainty in the community as it is unknown whether the unrest will escalate to culminate in an eruption or die away. This may prevent life from being lived as it normally would be for potentially long periods of time. Education institutes may close, and some members of the community may leave town to gain a sense of normalcy elsewhere. This decreases the workforce, potentially having a flow-on effect on businesses and the local economy (Johnston et al., 2002).

Perceived effects of unrest on the community and economy can tempt public officials and politicians to put pressure on scientists to lower VALs, or remove the label of ‘volcanic unrest’ from the situation. Tensions between the two groups can heighten until there is a sense of mistrust, in part due to high levels of uncertainty and the lack of timely information. Mader and Blair (1987) describe how these consequences of unrest occurred at Mammoth Lakes during the 1979–84 unrest episode at Long Valley Caldera, when a few of the officials and local business owners attempted to lessen the impact on the tourism and local investment

industries. Mistrust between scientists, public officials, and the public can also influence elections and result in delays in actions (for example, evacuations). The outcome of the local elections at Mono County (the area which includes Long Valley Caldera and Mammoth Lakes) in 1983 may have been affected by the coinciding caldera unrest (Mader & Blair, 1987). While not a large, rhyolitic caldera, similar societal and political effects from a VAL change were experienced at Quito (Ecuador), due to unrest at the neighbouring Guagua Pichincha volcano in 1998 (Metzger et al., 1999). Here, pressure was laid on scientists by the tourism industry to lower the VAL (Metzger et al., 1999). A high level of interagency communication and public information management is required during volcanic unrest to minimise the potential for these issues to occur.

The public and media are likely to demand information from public officials and scientists during unrest episodes, as seen during the 1983–85 unrest episode at Rabaul Caldera (Lowenstein, 1988). Special arrangements had to be made, including establishing a regular

Chapter 2 New Zealand’s Volcano Early Warning System

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newsletter and a Public Information Unit to fulfil this need. Similarly, daily information meetings were well attended by the public during the 1983 seismic swarm at Long Valley (Mader & Blair, 1987). In these situations, information relating to caldera unrest needs to be communicated effectively for it to be understood by those who need it (e.g., Mileti & Sorensen, 1990).

Economic impacts

The economic effects of a long period of unrest are varied, and depend on factors such as the duration; magnitude of activity; type, strength and flexibility of businesses; and degree of uncertainty (Johnston et. al., 2002).

Local tourist and real estate industries may be adversely affected, as experienced at Taupo township during and immediately after the 1963–64 episode of unrest at TVC (Johnston et al., 2002), and in the ski-season of 1982–83 at Mammoth Lakes, Long Valley Caldera (Mader & Blair, 1987). However in the latter example, the effect of unrest on the tourism industry, while easily blamed on volcanic unrest, is hard to prove or measure due to contributing

circumstances including the national recession, coincidental poor weather, and perceived overbuilding at Mammoth Lakes during the early 1980s (Mader & Blair, 1987). Nonetheless, premature business closure and self-evacuations are likely to affect the image of tourist towns at calderas, and the confidence of tourists in visiting. The effect on tourism may be short-lived if the unrest declines, as shown by the almost record ski season of 1983–84 at Mammoth Lakes, despite the unrest earlier in the year (Mader & Blair, 1987). A marketing campaign by the businesses of Mammoth Lakes in 1984 appeared to have successfully boosted tourist numbers (Mader & Blair, 1987). However, in some cases the increase in business uncertainty may disrupt the local economy for years to decades.

The investment market at Mammoth Lakes was hit harder by the caldera unrest than the tourism industry (Mader & Blair, 1987). This appeared to be due to the perceived risk on short- term visitors being less than the “constant threat” on long-term property investments. The decline in the real estate market was blamed on the potential for volcanic hazards (Mader & Blair, 1987). The insurance industry is also likely to be affected during caldera unrest, largely due to repeated and potentially damaging earthquakes. Changes by insurance agencies can include not reinsuring, cancelling cover, or changing what the insurance includes. After the 1983–85 Rabaul Caldera unrest episode, building insurance was restricted and had a high cost, resulting in a lack of finance from lending institutions (Lowenstein, 1988).

Historical caldera unrest episodes worldwide have resulted in a range of consequences, which prompted various degrees of response. These included developing effective evacuation routes, constructing alternative wharves and airstrips, updating plans, decreasing exposure by moving business supplies away from hazardous areas, and mass evacuations (e.g., Barberi et al., 1984; Mader & Blair, 1987; Davies, 1995a). Further information on mitigation strategies for unrest is included in Appendix 2.