The ICN invasion of Iran is declared both a failure and a success; it really depends on who you ask. The Iranians feel that because they’ve managed to hold off the incursion near Mashad, that there really hasn’t been an invasion. The ICN feels that because it is tying down several regiments of Iranian ground forces and drawing much needed supplies away from the fi ght with Saudi Arabia that their mission has been (at least somewhat) successful.
The ICN forces spread throughout the Razavi Khorasan province are actively engaging Iranian forces when and where they can. Most are hit and run insurgent style attacks, but they’ve been extremely successful.
Back in their home nations, things aren’t better or worse since the start of the Iranian campaign. Mostly it’s business as usual. The only noticeable difference is the supply convoys returning from Iran loaded with art, books, rugs and other “loot” (including water from the many mineral springs in the region).
Iraq
Iraq technically no longer exists as the nation it once was. It’s essentially divided into three areas of control: Kurdistan (northern Iraq), Saudi controlled areas and Saudi/Iranian contested areas. The central government put in place during the American period has been erased. In its place is a regional form of government where local clerics hold the real authority.The Saudi’s have total control over the Salahuddin, Diyala and Al-Anbar provinces. They hold varying degrees of control on all other provinces (save those that belong to the Kurds in the north). The fi ghting is heaviest in and around Baghdad and Basra. The only area that can be said to be under total Iranian control is Amarah. Outside of the major cities (and sometimes in them) Iraq is fully tribal, with warfare between Islamic factions continuing and growing. Refugees escape the region at an alarming rate. Of the surviving population (already less than half of that of 2008), over 50% are in refugee status. Most travel along sectarian lines, Sunnis heading west, and Shia traveling east. Going north is suicidal – Kurds, Turks, Americans, none of whom are well-disposed towards large groups of Iraqis, armed or otherwise.
Kurdistan
In 2011 the U.S. contingent on the ground is moved into the Kurdish region of northern Iraq to protect American interests while Saudi Arabia and Iran battle for control of the rest of the country. During this time, the provisional government declares
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the region independent of Iraq and formally creates the nation of Kurdistan.
In addition to the Iraqi territory, Kurdistan quickly annexes parts of Turkey and Syria. As of 2013, Kurdistan is the region of eastern Turkey, northern Iraq, and smaller parts of northern Syria.
The U.S. Army positions its forces along the border with Turkey and Iraq to act as the primary defense for the region. Initially, their goal is to protect American allies and assets. Following the President’s “You’re on your own” speech, their new goal is to secure the region long enough for other American and Coalition forces to arrive. After that, their plans are to extricate themselves along with the newly arrived forces back to what’s left of America. Even though the Saudi’s are content to leave Kurdistan as is for the time being, they have on occasion sent bombing sorties out to destroy key infrastructure points. They seem to be prepping for an eventual strategic invasion of the region (after dealing with Iran of course).
Afghanistan
Afghanistan has been home to large numbers of American and allied troops since the Global War of Terrorism began in 2001. As the Twilight War required U.S. and NATO countries to turn their attention elsewhere, Afghanistan quickly became a low priority. By mid-2010 almost half of the participating coalition nations remove their forces from Afghanistan; many of the remaining ones end up cutting their numbers by 2011. In 2007, the Taliban returns throughout much of the nation, having been sheltered in neighboring Pakistan. By 2013 with superior numbers, improved tactics, along with the weakened technological advantage of the coalition forces, the Taliban and other factions, such as al Qaeda, return to power within the country. The western backed government topples; its members are either dead, in hiding or sheltered amongst coalition forces.Western coalition forces are now concentrated in the southern part of Afghanistan, preparing for the push across northern Iran. The remnants and descendants of various guerilla groups are scattered throughout the mountains and valleys, carrying out raids against supply depots and other resources maintained by standing militaries.
Afghanistan’s surviving farmers produce a still-signifi cant amount of opium alongside subsistence crops. However, most of the opium now produced is for local consumption. With supply lines hopelessly disrupted, some military medical teams have negotiated independent trade agreements for the drug as a substitute for approved painkillers.
Pakistan
Pakistan is in ruins, the entire country. There isn’t one city, town, village, hamlet or outhouse that hasn’t been caught up in either the internal Paki-Civil War or the invasion by India. After taking control of Kashmir, India sets back and watches as Pakistan burns (without fi ddles though).
Pakistan is now one of those places where the word ‘survivor’ holds little meaning. While people live through the shootings, bombings, shelling, fi res and other such attacks, the war leaves little in the way of living conditions. Food is scarce, oil and gas reserves are depleted, public services such as running water don’t exist (available water is stagnant and rampant with diseases) and medicines throughout the country are exhausted (irrelevant as no hospital is left standing).
The Paki-Civil War takes a heavy toll on the country and its people. What was once called Pakistan is nothing more than a smoldering pyre (even the fi re dies). And none of this takes into consideration the nuclear attacks from India in 2013.
Prior to 2013, India’s plan for Pakistan was conquest, not annihilation. However, plans change in war. Indian Defense Ministry Intelligence learns that the multinational force in control of Pakistani nukes is preparing to retreat to Afghanistan. The result is a full-scale pre-emptive strike to protect Indian cities.
In one day India fi res over 100 missiles, targeting all of the Pakistani nuclear missile sites. A staggeringly high percentage hit their targets, and all the nukes are believed to be destroyed in their tubes. There are fears inside the Indian military that a few Pakistani missiles survive, but without local intelligence there is no way to be sure. Secrets leak in both directions. It appears the multinational security force protecting the sites have enough warning to evacuate in time.
India now waits for the fallout from the nuclear attack to dissipate before moving further into the Pakistani interior. However, once the dust settles (pun intended) India intends to take full control of a weakened Pakistan.
India
With hostile nuclear powers on two sides, India is hit hard during the Twilight War. Pre-existing overpopulation problems lead to massive death tolls from starvation and the unchecked spread of disease. Depletion of already scarce resources only makes things worse for the world’s second most populous nation.
India’s traditional caste system revives since the war’s escalation and resolution, although placement based on birth gives way to a limited meritocracy. Blessed with large numbers of well-educated citizens, India’s new social order places primary importance on an individual’s ability to contribute to the community. Those most able to provide necessary services or knowledge are held in high regard.
The country’s still-large military is deployed throughout the new national boundaries. The long-disputed Kashmir region is fi rmly under Indian control. As the nuclear arsenals of both nations are depleted or destroyed, an effective truce takes hold – rebuilding is considered a higher priority than continuing a shooting war between the largest armies left on the continent. A detachment of the Indian army moves into Bangladesh to guard against refugee movement, continued terrorist operations, and a feared military infi ltration from the Southeast Asia peninsula.
The national capital relocates to Bhopal, as the government facilities in New Delhi are badly damaged by Pakistani nuclear strikes. The surviving Parliament and new Prime Minister focus on keeping the nation secure and preventing epidemics and mass starvation.
Long in decline, the centuries-old tradition of banditry returns. In the northern region of the Chambal, gangs are reforming and recruiting new members from the local villages and towns. The gangs continue a long tradition of protecting and assisting the poor residents in the areas where they operate, and there are hopes that these Robin Hoods of the subcontinent will keep more hostile elements at bay.
Evacuation
After the American President’s speech and disbandment of the federal government, the remaining American and NATO forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan (AfPak) are preparing for a mass evacuation. They are currently assembling outside of Kandahar. Their mission will be to join up with larger allied forces still in Kurdistan (northern Iraq) and then attempt to secure passage back to their home countries. The evacuation route will take these forces directly through a heavily defended Iran.
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India’s occasional ethnic and religious confl icts fl are during the Twilight War. The eastern part of the country is home to at least two separatist groups who become very active when national attention turns outward. The Nagaland and Assam separatists establish cultural enclaves near the old border with Bhutan. Minority Muslim groups suffer some attacks from other ethnicities following Pakistan’s attacks, and tension remains there.
Syria
One of the few countries to come out ahead (at least on paper) during the Twilight War, Syria now controls all of Lebanon and Israel. They also develop a strategic alliance with Jordan to form a strong deterrent against both Saudi and Egyptian encroachment into their regions.The country and its people are not as well off as things might appear. The Israeli air war destroys large portions of the local infrastructure and military defense, not to mention a good percentage of the population. The war wins them Israel but costs them the ability to control their people and provide basic necessities. The country is now locally managed within each governorate.
Rioting breaks out in all major Syrian cities. The violence escalates until the entire western half of the country resorts to martial law in mid-2012. More Syrians die during the riots and subsequent crack downs efforts than during the Syrian/Israeli war.
In addition to the rioting, triumphant Kurds in the northeast join with Kurds from southern Turkey and northern Iraq to form the nation of Kurdistan. Other regions also begin to rebel against the government and threaten open revolt if things do not improve.